I love the NCAA tourney and I love to when a Cinderella type team pulls some upsets and goes on a mini run. \
What are some mid majors that could be a threat to potentially make it to the second weekend
a few that come to mind are UB, UVM and Middle Tennessee!!
Any others??
Western Kentucky. They beat Purdue and a full-strength SMU squad, and they played Villanova close. And they kicked the pants off a good Wright State team.
They have some inexplicable losses (Ohio, UTSA) but they still might get an at-large bid if they run the table and lose the conference tourney final. I'd be very scared to face them as a 12-seed play-in game.
Western has to make it first, which is no guarantee.
(02-12-2018 04:07 AM)_C2_ Wrote: [ -> ]Western has to make it first, which is no guarantee.
Yeah, and if they do sneak in, AQ or at-large, they're probably on that 11 or 12-line.
FWIW, it actually helps those like NMSU, ETSU, the CUSA teams...that's about where they may land.
After yesterday's bracket reveal, I might like those 11, 12, and 13's more than previously thought, because the 4-6-line is going to be a mess of over and under-seeded teams (Tenn's a 4?).
New Mexico State
Louisiana-Lafayette
Montana
Consider the 5 and 6 line could have the likes of:
Rhode Island
St. Mary's
Gonzaga
Wichita State
Kentucky
Seton Hall
Miami
TCU
If that's a sample of the lines (I know there are others likely in there, like WVU), how do you like the chances for 12's and 11's now?
Louisiana-Lafayette or Georgia State will win the Sun Belt and secure the one bid to the tournament, but I could see either of those teams upset some of the big boys.
(02-12-2018 10:20 AM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote: [ -> ]Consider the 5 and 6 line could have the likes of:
Rhode Island
St. Mary's
Gonzaga
Wichita State
Kentucky
Seton Hall
Miami
TCU
If that's a sample of the lines (I know there are others likely in there, like WVU), how do you like the chances for 12's and 11's now?
All good teams, as you'd expect on the 5 and 6 lines, but hardly unbeatable. Kentucky's struggling, Miami has losses to Boston College and Georgia Tech, which aren't dancing, and New Mexico State, which is the kind of team that you'd see one the 11 or 12 line. Most if not all of those teams have multiple losses to non-NCAA tournament teams. So while they're certainly going to be tough outs, if you put them against, say, New Mexico State, Middle Tennessee, WKU, Vermont, Virginia Tech and N.C. State, there's going to be upsets. There always are.
(02-12-2018 10:20 AM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote: [ -> ]Consider the 5 and 6 line could have the likes of:
Rhode Island
St. Mary's
Gonzaga
Wichita State
Kentucky
Seton Hall
Miami
TCU
If that's a sample of the lines (I know there are others likely in there, like WVU), how do you like the chances for 12's and 11's now?
I'd be really surprised if TCU ends up as high as the 5/6 line unless they pull a number of upsets down the stretch. TCU more likely to be in the 8 to 10 range if we even make the tournament.
(02-12-2018 11:32 AM)tcufrog86 Wrote: [ -> ] (02-12-2018 10:20 AM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote: [ -> ]Consider the 5 and 6 line could have the likes of:
Rhode Island
St. Mary's
Gonzaga
Wichita State
Kentucky
Seton Hall
Miami
TCU
If that's a sample of the lines (I know there are others likely in there, like WVU), how do you like the chances for 12's and 11's now?
I'd be really surprised if TCU ends up as high as the 5/6 line unless they pull a number of upsets down the stretch. TCU more likely to be in the 8 to 10 range if we even make the tournament.
They're an odd one, because the numbers are so darn strong. SOS, NC-SOS, NC-RPI...they are all very good. 10 games against Group 1...6-8 vs. Groups 1 and 2. They look better than a lot of teams, but, then, who in their non-conference is even going to the tournament? USD isn't a lock, Bonnie's no longer that great, SMU is probably out...Nevada, who might be falling apart? Belmont, just because they seem to win all of the time?
Honestly, if they fall into the 7-10 lines, and if I was a 1 or 2, I'd be calling the committee out publicly to know how the decisions are made. There are no bad losses there now because of the tiering...it's not like Vandy hurts them. But, yeah...where do they go? I could see them as a 6. I like them there more than I like Texas and Kansas State...those guys come to mind as the 7-11's. I mean, maybe if TCU can't win anymore meaningful conference games...seems like they've been very competitive and could take any of these guys, though.
ETSU, South Dakota St, and Loyola-Chicago come to my mind.
(02-12-2018 12:52 PM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote: [ -> ] (02-12-2018 11:32 AM)tcufrog86 Wrote: [ -> ] (02-12-2018 10:20 AM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote: [ -> ]Consider the 5 and 6 line could have the likes of:
Rhode Island
St. Mary's
Gonzaga
Wichita State
Kentucky
Seton Hall
Miami
TCU
If that's a sample of the lines (I know there are others likely in there, like WVU), how do you like the chances for 12's and 11's now?
I'd be really surprised if TCU ends up as high as the 5/6 line unless they pull a number of upsets down the stretch. TCU more likely to be in the 8 to 10 range if we even make the tournament.
They're an odd one, because the numbers are so darn strong. SOS, NC-SOS, NC-RPI...they are all very good. 10 games against Group 1...6-8 vs. Groups 1 and 2. They look better than a lot of teams, but, then, who in their non-conference is even going to the tournament? USD isn't a lock, Bonnie's no longer that great, SMU is probably out...Nevada, who might be falling apart? Belmont, just because they seem to win all of the time?
Honestly, if they fall into the 7-10 lines, and if I was a 1 or 2, I'd be calling the committee out publicly to know how the decisions are made. There are no bad losses there now because of the tiering...it's not like Vandy hurts them. But, yeah...where do they go? I could see them as a 6. I like them there more than I like Texas and Kansas State...those guys come to mind as the 7-11's. I mean, maybe if TCU can't win anymore meaningful conference games...seems like they've been very competitive and could take any of these guys, though.
Yeah we will just have to see what wins TCU can close out over the next month or so, TCU has been generally competitive in every game. The 8 losses are.
Oklahoma by 1
Kansas by 4
@ Texas by 1 in double OT
@ Oklahoma by 5 in OT
@ Kansas State by 5
@ Vanderbilt by 3
Texas Tech by 12 (only loss by more than 7)
@ Kansas by 7
It's tough to look at some of the others in the field as being in better shape than TCU for a seed that high. This could be where the SEC fog begins with everyone else like TAMU, Florida, Arkansas, Missouri, and those already listed like Kentucky...I think TCU fits with that crew.
I predict 3 mid majors in Sweet 16.
Saint Mary’s
New Mexico State
Loyola
Plus Nevada and Rhode Island (if they’re considered MM).
(02-12-2018 01:02 AM)Huskypride Wrote: [ -> ]I love the NCAA tourney and I love to when a Cinderella type team pulls some upsets and goes on a mini run. \
What are some mid majors that could be a threat to potentially make it to the second weekend
a few that come to mind are UB, UVM and Middle Tennessee!!
Any others??
Who are UB and UVM?
(02-12-2018 04:14 PM)ken d Wrote: [ -> ] (02-12-2018 01:02 AM)Huskypride Wrote: [ -> ]I love the NCAA tourney and I love to when a Cinderella type team pulls some upsets and goes on a mini run. \
What are some mid majors that could be a threat to potentially make it to the second weekend
a few that come to mind are UB, UVM and Middle Tennessee!!
Any others??
Who are UB and UVM?
Buffalo and Vermont
UTSA was mentioned earlier as a “bad loss” for WKU, but they came out of nowhere to win 3 in a row against the top teams in C-USA. If they can repeat that in the Frisco-Tx tourney for an auto-bid, I could see them continuing a run into the NCAA. Also, MTSU feels due for a sweet 16 and I think this year’s MTSU is stronger than last 2 seasons’. C-USA is 3-1 in last 4 years in first round games I believe (none from higher than a 10 seed)
(02-12-2018 04:32 PM)owl at the moon Wrote: [ -> ]UTSA was mentioned earlier as a “bad loss” for WKU, but they came out of nowhere to win 3 in a row against the top teams in C-USA. If they can repeat that in the Frisco-Tx tourney for an auto-bid, I could see them continuing a run into the NCAA. Also, MTSU feels due for a sweet 16 and I think this year’s MTSU is stronger than last 2 seasons’. C-USA is 3-1 in last 4 years in first round games I believe (none from higher than a 10 seed)
MTSU over Minnesota was the easiest 12 over 5 pick I remember. Even Vegas made the 12-seed the favorite (which speaks volumes about the committee but that’s a different topic).
(02-12-2018 06:00 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote: [ -> ] (02-12-2018 04:32 PM)owl at the moon Wrote: [ -> ]UTSA was mentioned earlier as a “bad loss” for WKU, but they came out of nowhere to win 3 in a row against the top teams in C-USA. If they can repeat that in the Frisco-Tx tourney for an auto-bid, I could see them continuing a run into the NCAA. Also, MTSU feels due for a sweet 16 and I think this year’s MTSU is stronger than last 2 seasons’. C-USA is 3-1 in last 4 years in first round games I believe (none from higher than a 10 seed)
MTSU over Minnesota was the easiest 12 over 5 pick I remember. Even Vegas made the 12-seed the favorite (which speaks volumes about the committee but that’s a different topic).
Ya didn't pick 'em against Michigan St though did ya?
ETSU got stomped tonight in Greensboro. I think it's probably a good thing for them. Don't let the story about them be going undefeated in SoCon.
And while this Bucknell isn't the Pat Flannery-led teams, darn if they didn't pull off a miracle getting the win over Colgate tonight when a loss was practically imminent. 64-59 with 11 seconds left. 65-64 final, Bison win.