01-15-2018, 12:57 PM
Steve Forbes is looking for a new experience this week: an ETSU win at Furman. Heck, ETSU has not won at Furman since the Wadood-Fields team of 2003-2004.
Last year we got skunked 62-75 at their place. Almost as bad, we had to go to overtime to avoid a Senior Day humiliation by the Paladins at home. In BOTH of those games Furman played without star 6-8 post Matt Rafferty (back surgery). The key players from that team are all back, with the exception of Kris Acox who is replaced by a healthy Rafferty. I hope the Bucs don’t pick this game to start enjoying their press clippings.
Furman is 8-1 at home and 2-0 at home in the Socon (Mercer and the Citadel). The Paladins are ranked 104th by Kenpom, ahead of Stanford (107), Georgia Southern (111), Mercer (112) and UNCG (114). They need to erase the sting of their Saturday loss at Wofford (king of SoCon home court advantage), their first loss in the SoCon.
Furman’s only home loss was an early season November 29 whupping by Winthrop 93-74. It was a rout where Winthrop [currently 8-8 and 2-3 in the Big South with a 180 KenPom ranking] blew out to a 20 point lead early and never let the Paladins get closer than 16. Since that game Furman is 9-2 with the only losses coming on the road, at Tennessee in Knoxville by 5, 61-66, and at Wofford 70-79. Furman did struggle to scrape by Mercer at home 74-71, while ETSU smacked the Bears in Macon 74-55.
The Bucs are 6-3 in away games, losing on the road to NKU, Kentucky and Xavier. We are 3-0 in away games in conference with wins over 1-3 Mercer, 3-2 Samford and 0-5 Chattanooga. The last Buc loss was Xavier’s December 16 comeback.
Furman’s key players are all Seniors (Sibley, Fowler, Davis) or Juniors (Andrew Brown, Matt Rafferty).
Strong points for the Paladins are very good guard play (second to only freakish Citadel in scoring offense, 80.4; assists, 16.8; steals, 8.7; and turnover margin +3.89). They want to play high tempo and shoot a lot of three’s (10.5 makes on .355 to 7.3 on .344 for ETSU; although in conference it’s a bit closer with 11.2 makes on .383 for Furman to 8.0 makes on .444 for the Bucs).
Devin Sibley is 4th in the SoCon in scoring with 15.7, but unlike Fletcher Mcgee or Francis Alonso he’s got a fleet of talented scorers around him, especially seniors Daniel Fowler and John Davis and junior Andrew Brown.
Weaknesses are size (of top 5 players only 1 is over 6-4, the fairly slim Matt Rafferty at 6-8 215) and front court depth (behind Rafferty they don't get much from Williams, Beans or Mounce), leading to weak rebounding margin (+0.1 to +3.0 for ETSU) and weak basket protection (+2.4 blocked shots to +4.2 for ETSU; field goal defense of .438 to .404, 47th in D1, for ETSU). Furman does defend the 3 better (allowing 6.6 makes on .306 shooting to 7.3 makes on .318 allowed by ETSU; although that does reverse in conference where ETSU has better 3 point defense allowing 5.8 makes on .290 shooting to 7.8 on .348; which is in turn explainable by ETSU facing the 5 weakest 3 point shooting teams in conference while Furman has had to play Wofford)
I wonder if this will repeat a pattern with UNCG where emphasis on getting out to the perimeter fast for excellent 3 point defense seemed to contribute to the paint being open for cuts to the basket by Jurkin and Armas?
The bad thing for Furman is that ETSU is close in their most strong points (scoring offense [80.4 to 78.1], steals [8.5 to 8.7], turnover margin [3.89 to 3.00]) and decisively better in Furman’s weaker areas (rebounding 0.1 to 3.0, blocked shots 2.3 to 4.2, FG% defense .438 to .404, FG% scored .480 for ETSU to .442 for Furman).
In the front court: Rafferty is back healthy: 2nd in the SoCon in rebounding with 7.9, 19th in scoring with 11.3, and 1st in FG% with .636. But he gets little help in either minutes or production from 6-8 245 Rs-So Jalen Williams (9.4 minutes, 3.1 ppg, 0 3’s, 3.9 rebounds), 6-7 210 Sr Geoff Beans (10.2 minutes, 3.2 ppg on .260 from 3 with 0.7 makes, 1.5 rebounds), and 6-7 200 Rs-Fr Clay Mounce (11.3 minutes, 5.1 ppg, only 4 three’s all year on.267, 2.4 rebounds). Mounce is most likely to be on the bench in close games. They miss 6-6 Acox with his tough physical presence. Power moves from Bo Hodges and David Burrell should work against these guys. Post players 7-0 Jurkin and 6-10 Armas should have a physical edge.
Should be a high tempo barn burner. Edge to the Bucs, mostly for superior defense, if they are ready, which they have been so far this year with only 1 or 2 exceptions.
Guards:
#12 6-2 175 Sr Devin Sibley, 27.4 minutes, 15.7 ppg, .383 from 3 (2.0 makes), 4.6 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 3.0 t.o.'s, 0.8 steals
#35 6-4 203 Sr Daniel Fowler, 28.8 minutes, 11.4 ppg, .407 from 3 (1.8 makes), 3.6 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 1.6 t.o.'s, 1.5 steals
#1 5-11 165 Sr John Davis, 28.2 minutes, 11.2 ppg, .317 from 3 (1.1 makes), 2.4 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 1.4 t.o.'s, 1.6 steals
#5 6-4 212 Jr Andrew Brown, 23.7 minutes, 7.5 ppg, .391 from 3 (1.5 makes), 3.1 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 1.1 t.o.'s, 1.2 steals
#23 5-11 170 So Jordan Lyons, 16.7 minutes, 8.5 ppg, .347 from 3 (2.0 makes), 1.3 rebounds, 0.9 assists, 1.6 t.o.'s
#10 5-11 170 Fr Alex Hunter, 12.8 minutes, 3.1 ppg, .375 from 3 (0.7 makes), 2.0 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 0.6 t.o.'s
Front Court:
#32 6-8 215 Jr Matt Rafferty, 27.3 minutes, 11.3 ppg, .636 FG%, .429 from 3 (0.5 makes), 7.9 rebounds
#45 6-7 200 Rs-Fr Clay Mounce, 11.3 minutes, 5.1 ppg on .267 from 3 (4 makes all year), 2.4 rebounds
#2 6-8 245 Rs-So Jalen Williams, 9.4 minutes, 3.1 ppg, 0 three's, 3.9 rebounds
#3 6-7 210 Sr Geoff Beans, 10.2 minutes, 3.2 ppg, .260 from 3 (0.7 makes), 1.5 rebounds
Last year we got skunked 62-75 at their place. Almost as bad, we had to go to overtime to avoid a Senior Day humiliation by the Paladins at home. In BOTH of those games Furman played without star 6-8 post Matt Rafferty (back surgery). The key players from that team are all back, with the exception of Kris Acox who is replaced by a healthy Rafferty. I hope the Bucs don’t pick this game to start enjoying their press clippings.
Furman is 8-1 at home and 2-0 at home in the Socon (Mercer and the Citadel). The Paladins are ranked 104th by Kenpom, ahead of Stanford (107), Georgia Southern (111), Mercer (112) and UNCG (114). They need to erase the sting of their Saturday loss at Wofford (king of SoCon home court advantage), their first loss in the SoCon.
Furman’s only home loss was an early season November 29 whupping by Winthrop 93-74. It was a rout where Winthrop [currently 8-8 and 2-3 in the Big South with a 180 KenPom ranking] blew out to a 20 point lead early and never let the Paladins get closer than 16. Since that game Furman is 9-2 with the only losses coming on the road, at Tennessee in Knoxville by 5, 61-66, and at Wofford 70-79. Furman did struggle to scrape by Mercer at home 74-71, while ETSU smacked the Bears in Macon 74-55.
The Bucs are 6-3 in away games, losing on the road to NKU, Kentucky and Xavier. We are 3-0 in away games in conference with wins over 1-3 Mercer, 3-2 Samford and 0-5 Chattanooga. The last Buc loss was Xavier’s December 16 comeback.
Furman’s key players are all Seniors (Sibley, Fowler, Davis) or Juniors (Andrew Brown, Matt Rafferty).
Strong points for the Paladins are very good guard play (second to only freakish Citadel in scoring offense, 80.4; assists, 16.8; steals, 8.7; and turnover margin +3.89). They want to play high tempo and shoot a lot of three’s (10.5 makes on .355 to 7.3 on .344 for ETSU; although in conference it’s a bit closer with 11.2 makes on .383 for Furman to 8.0 makes on .444 for the Bucs).
Devin Sibley is 4th in the SoCon in scoring with 15.7, but unlike Fletcher Mcgee or Francis Alonso he’s got a fleet of talented scorers around him, especially seniors Daniel Fowler and John Davis and junior Andrew Brown.
Weaknesses are size (of top 5 players only 1 is over 6-4, the fairly slim Matt Rafferty at 6-8 215) and front court depth (behind Rafferty they don't get much from Williams, Beans or Mounce), leading to weak rebounding margin (+0.1 to +3.0 for ETSU) and weak basket protection (+2.4 blocked shots to +4.2 for ETSU; field goal defense of .438 to .404, 47th in D1, for ETSU). Furman does defend the 3 better (allowing 6.6 makes on .306 shooting to 7.3 makes on .318 allowed by ETSU; although that does reverse in conference where ETSU has better 3 point defense allowing 5.8 makes on .290 shooting to 7.8 on .348; which is in turn explainable by ETSU facing the 5 weakest 3 point shooting teams in conference while Furman has had to play Wofford)
I wonder if this will repeat a pattern with UNCG where emphasis on getting out to the perimeter fast for excellent 3 point defense seemed to contribute to the paint being open for cuts to the basket by Jurkin and Armas?
The bad thing for Furman is that ETSU is close in their most strong points (scoring offense [80.4 to 78.1], steals [8.5 to 8.7], turnover margin [3.89 to 3.00]) and decisively better in Furman’s weaker areas (rebounding 0.1 to 3.0, blocked shots 2.3 to 4.2, FG% defense .438 to .404, FG% scored .480 for ETSU to .442 for Furman).
In the front court: Rafferty is back healthy: 2nd in the SoCon in rebounding with 7.9, 19th in scoring with 11.3, and 1st in FG% with .636. But he gets little help in either minutes or production from 6-8 245 Rs-So Jalen Williams (9.4 minutes, 3.1 ppg, 0 3’s, 3.9 rebounds), 6-7 210 Sr Geoff Beans (10.2 minutes, 3.2 ppg on .260 from 3 with 0.7 makes, 1.5 rebounds), and 6-7 200 Rs-Fr Clay Mounce (11.3 minutes, 5.1 ppg, only 4 three’s all year on.267, 2.4 rebounds). Mounce is most likely to be on the bench in close games. They miss 6-6 Acox with his tough physical presence. Power moves from Bo Hodges and David Burrell should work against these guys. Post players 7-0 Jurkin and 6-10 Armas should have a physical edge.
Should be a high tempo barn burner. Edge to the Bucs, mostly for superior defense, if they are ready, which they have been so far this year with only 1 or 2 exceptions.
Guards:
#12 6-2 175 Sr Devin Sibley, 27.4 minutes, 15.7 ppg, .383 from 3 (2.0 makes), 4.6 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 3.0 t.o.'s, 0.8 steals
#35 6-4 203 Sr Daniel Fowler, 28.8 minutes, 11.4 ppg, .407 from 3 (1.8 makes), 3.6 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 1.6 t.o.'s, 1.5 steals
#1 5-11 165 Sr John Davis, 28.2 minutes, 11.2 ppg, .317 from 3 (1.1 makes), 2.4 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 1.4 t.o.'s, 1.6 steals
#5 6-4 212 Jr Andrew Brown, 23.7 minutes, 7.5 ppg, .391 from 3 (1.5 makes), 3.1 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 1.1 t.o.'s, 1.2 steals
#23 5-11 170 So Jordan Lyons, 16.7 minutes, 8.5 ppg, .347 from 3 (2.0 makes), 1.3 rebounds, 0.9 assists, 1.6 t.o.'s
#10 5-11 170 Fr Alex Hunter, 12.8 minutes, 3.1 ppg, .375 from 3 (0.7 makes), 2.0 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 0.6 t.o.'s
Front Court:
#32 6-8 215 Jr Matt Rafferty, 27.3 minutes, 11.3 ppg, .636 FG%, .429 from 3 (0.5 makes), 7.9 rebounds
#45 6-7 200 Rs-Fr Clay Mounce, 11.3 minutes, 5.1 ppg on .267 from 3 (4 makes all year), 2.4 rebounds
#2 6-8 245 Rs-So Jalen Williams, 9.4 minutes, 3.1 ppg, 0 three's, 3.9 rebounds
#3 6-7 210 Sr Geoff Beans, 10.2 minutes, 3.2 ppg, .260 from 3 (0.7 makes), 1.5 rebounds