Lehigh (5-6, 5-1 Patriot)
Stony Brook (9-2, 7-1 CAA)
Massey - Stony Brook 19 point favorites
Sagarin - Stony Brook 19 point favorites
Passing Offense
6 Lehigh 324.7
87 Stony Brook 180.8
Rushing Offense
59 Lehigh 152.1
61 Stony Brook 149.4
Scoring Offense
9 Lehigh 36.5
41 Stony Brook 28.5
Total Offense
5 Lehigh 476.8
82 Stony Brook 330.2
Passing Defense
64 Stony Brook 217.0
84 Lehigh 232.4
Rushing Defense
12 Stony Brook 99.9
116 Lehigh 232.2
Scoring Defense
22 Stony Brook 19.4
118 Lehigh 39.4
Total Defense
21 Stony Brook 316.9
115 Lehigh 464.5
Turnover Margin
Stony Brook 20 gained, 12 lost +8
Lehigh 13 gained, 22 lost -9
My Take: Well I was surprised at the significantly better offensive numbers for Lehigh, except for even rushing games. Then I saw the defensive stats.
I'll just let the numbers speak for themselves and "be lazy" this week. Outside of a completely awful, turnover heavy and home run play galore game against SB, I will say that there is absolutely no way we're not playing the Seawolves on 12/2. Stony Brook's defense will dominate Lehigh easily.
I disagree.
I think Stony will win. But I also think they are being overrated. I think Lehigh has a decent shot at this and would not be surprised if they win.
Neither team should trouble us much at all though.
(11-20-2017 10:45 AM)Duke Dawg Wrote: [ -> ]I disagree.
I think Stony will win. But I also think they are being overrated. I think Lehigh has a decent shot at this and would not be surprised if they win.
Neither team should trouble us much at all though.
Lehigh has a below average pass D and one of the worst rushing Ds, scoring Ds and total Ds in the country. Stony Brook has a stud RB in Bedell that will have a field day against such a non-existent rushing defense. That will allow SB to control the momentum and game clock. It doesn't matter what lehigh could do offensively if they're spending most of the game on the sideline while SB has long, time consuming drives all game.
Keep in mind, their defensive stats were against the Patriot League. A particularly terrible conference this year. Top to bottom awful. They won't stand a chance against any CAA team outside of WM or URI.
People need to understand that when they see SB blowing out Lehigh on saturday. It's not indicative of how good SB is. It's that they're playing such a bad team that has no business being in the playoff field.
(11-20-2017 10:57 AM)Potomac Wrote: [ -> ] (11-20-2017 10:45 AM)Duke Dawg Wrote: [ -> ]I disagree.
I think Stony will win. But I also think they are being overrated. I think Lehigh has a decent shot at this and would not be surprised if they win.
Neither team should trouble us much at all though.
Lehigh has a below average pass D and one of the worst rushing Ds, scoring Ds and total Ds in the country. Stony Brook has a stud RB in Bedell that will have a field day against such a non-existent rushing defense. That will allow SB to control the momentum and game clock. It doesn't matter what lehigh could do offensively if they're spending most of the game on the sideline while SB has long, time consuming drives all game.
Keep in mind, their defensive stats were against the Patriot League. A particularly terrible conference this year. Top to bottom awful. They won't stand a chance against any CAA team outside of WM or URI.
In fairness... didn't a lot of people around here say the same about Colgate vs UNH and JMU in 2015. I think SB probably wins too, but I plan on watching the game expecting anything.
We can pay Bedell back for reneging on his commitment to JMU and bolting for UMass. Only, to transfer to Stony Brook. A little back story.
Those stats don't tell the full story. The Patriot League was one of the worst conferences in FCS this year. Those offensive number are impressive, but when you look at their opponents it isn't as impressive.
Lehigh played Villanova earlier this season and lost 38-35. Villanova also played Lafayette a few weeks later and beat them 59-0. Lehigh played them a last week and won 38-31. They have definitely put up a lot of points.
Using that same comparison to defense (that they were playing Patriot League teams) and that defense looks beyond atrocious.
They allowed no LESS than 21 points a game all season long.
Points allowed:
Villanova 38 L
Monmouth 46 L
Yale 56 L
Penn 65 L
Wagner 37 L
Colgate 38 W
Georgetown 35 W
Fordham 45 L
Bucknell 21 W
Holy Cross 21 W
Lafayette 21 W
Imagine how many points Lehigh would have given up if they had played a CAA schedule.
Stony Brook on offense's low scores of the year:
South Florida 17 L
W&M 21 W
UD 20 L
Maine 20 W
Their defense allowed no MORE than 24 points to FCS schools(USF-31).
As the saying goes, defense wins championships. Stony Brook is going to slow down Lehigh's offense and I don't expect Lehigh to be able to stop anything Stony Brook throws at them. This will be the best team Lehigh has played all season long and I think it'll get very ugly.
SB 54
Lehigh 17
Likely SB rolls Lehigh, but that Lehigh schedule is interesting. Villanova healthy in Week 1 was a playoff-caliber team before the injuries. Monmouth is a playoff team that pummeled UNH, Yale won the Ivy and would've been a playoff team if that was a thing. Penn and Wagner are inexplicable but have to wonder if the team wasn't just mailing it in thinking they sucked at that point before their awful PL brethren allowed them back into the season. In other words, I have no real idea what to make of them record wise.
(11-20-2017 11:36 AM)JMad03 Wrote: [ -> ]Georgetown 35 W
Their highest scoring game of the year.
(11-20-2017 12:38 PM)PurpleStreamers Wrote: [ -> ]Likely SB rolls Lehigh, but that Lehigh schedule is interesting. Villanova healthy in Week 1 was a playoff-caliber team before the injuries. Monmouth is a playoff team that pummeled UNH, Yale won the Ivy and would've been a playoff team if that was a thing. Penn and Wagner are inexplicable but have to wonder if the team wasn't just mailing it in thinking they sucked at that point before their awful PL brethren allowed them back into the season. In other words, I have no real idea what to make of them record wise.
Monmouth did not play UNH. Did you mean they handled Liberty? Holy Cross pummeled UNH, as did Albany who also beat Monmouth.[/b]
(11-20-2017 02:38 PM)jmuroadwarrior Wrote: [ -> ] (11-20-2017 12:38 PM)PurpleStreamers Wrote: [ -> ]Likely SB rolls Lehigh, but that Lehigh schedule is interesting. Villanova healthy in Week 1 was a playoff-caliber team before the injuries. Monmouth is a playoff team that pummeled UNH, Yale won the Ivy and would've been a playoff team if that was a thing. Penn and Wagner are inexplicable but have to wonder if the team wasn't just mailing it in thinking they sucked at that point before their awful PL brethren allowed them back into the season. In other words, I have no real idea what to make of them record wise.
Monmouth did not play UNH. Did you mean they handled Liberty? Holy Cross pummeled UNH, as did Albany who also beat Monmouth.[/b]
Yup, good catch roadwarrior I was thinking of HC. Either way, I think Lehigh's season is reallllly strange. Just can't tell if they're better than the record or if the PL is really that terrible this year.
(11-20-2017 02:56 PM)PurpleStreamers Wrote: [ -> ] (11-20-2017 02:38 PM)jmuroadwarrior Wrote: [ -> ] (11-20-2017 12:38 PM)PurpleStreamers Wrote: [ -> ]Likely SB rolls Lehigh, but that Lehigh schedule is interesting. Villanova healthy in Week 1 was a playoff-caliber team before the injuries. Monmouth is a playoff team that pummeled UNH, Yale won the Ivy and would've been a playoff team if that was a thing. Penn and Wagner are inexplicable but have to wonder if the team wasn't just mailing it in thinking they sucked at that point before their awful PL brethren allowed them back into the season. In other words, I have no real idea what to make of them record wise.
Monmouth did not play UNH. Did you mean they handled Liberty? Holy Cross pummeled UNH, as did Albany who also beat Monmouth.[/b]
Yup, good catch roadwarrior I was thinking of HC. Either way, I think Lehigh's season is reallllly strange. Just can't tell if they're better than the record or if the PL is really that terrible this year.
Patriot is in the cellar of FCS, below SLC, NEC, and a couple D2 conferences according to Versus rankings. Really, really bad - the Softies would own that Conference with 100 point blowouts
(11-20-2017 04:06 PM)JMURocks Wrote: [ -> ] (11-20-2017 02:56 PM)PurpleStreamers Wrote: [ -> ] (11-20-2017 02:38 PM)jmuroadwarrior Wrote: [ -> ] (11-20-2017 12:38 PM)PurpleStreamers Wrote: [ -> ]Likely SB rolls Lehigh, but that Lehigh schedule is interesting. Villanova healthy in Week 1 was a playoff-caliber team before the injuries. Monmouth is a playoff team that pummeled UNH, Yale won the Ivy and would've been a playoff team if that was a thing. Penn and Wagner are inexplicable but have to wonder if the team wasn't just mailing it in thinking they sucked at that point before their awful PL brethren allowed them back into the season. In other words, I have no real idea what to make of them record wise.
Monmouth did not play UNH. Did you mean they handled Liberty? Holy Cross pummeled UNH, as did Albany who also beat Monmouth.[/b]
Yup, good catch roadwarrior I was thinking of HC. Either way, I think Lehigh's season is reallllly strange. Just can't tell if they're better than the record or if the PL is really that terrible this year.
Patriot is in the cellar of FCS, below SLC, NEC, and a couple D2 conferences according to Versus rankings. Really, really bad - the Softies would own that Conference with 100 point blowouts
Makes that recent first round playoff loss to Colgate feel even worse...