(11-10-2017 10:16 PM)Bucfaithful Wrote: [ -> ] (11-10-2017 10:13 PM)ETSUfan1 Wrote: [ -> ]I will say that Armus held his own. How long has it been since we've had a promising big guy come in as a freshman and contribute.
VERY promising...Bo too.
Forgot about Bo! He had some mishaps, like any freshman will, but he definitely will contribute a big roll this year. We now know why him and Armus are demanding minutes as freshmen
Forbes will figure it out by conference.
I'm not quite so sanguine as some of you guys..... I think our problems are deeper than surface cracks that can be fairly easily rectified. I'm not sure we'll be as good as we ended up 2 years ago, when we more or less righted the ship by conference time. I think our problems are similar, but far from the same. And it's possible, with all the new guys, that the upside potential that's definitely 'there' will become a reality for multiple players. But those are moderately big "ifs".
Of course I fully recognize and acknowledge that is WAY TOO EARLY to know how things will transpire, but we all like to project and predict a little, no? I think we'll be very fortunate to finish third or so, and 3rd or 4th seems about right. On the other hand.....if the other SoCon teams turn out to be weaker than some of you have been projecting, we may pick up a couple of wins that otherwise we might not.
posterformerlyknownasthedoctor (Oct. 20, 2017, after the scrimmage):
Quote: Let me just get this out of the way right now..................I don't think we'll have quite the success we had last year. Would LOVE to be wrong, of course, but I just don't see the same full team with few weaknesses (at the SoCon level). Definitely weaker inside (more on this later, too). Are we a poor team? No, of course not. We should definitely be considerably above .500 in conference play, but I just don't see the horses to challenge for the championship. Could I be wrong? Certainly.
[Also.......clearly I had confused Armus and Overstreet from the two earlier viewings I had of them, so I'll be going back and correcting those earlier posts. Sorry for the misidentifications.]
Big props to NKU's D. They clearly had scouted Bradford well, and for the first 2/3 of the game denied him a lot of penetrations, and were able to frustrate his movements. They were also wonderful at denying passing lanes. They really seemed to have "the book" on each ETSU player's offensive predilections. That's how you cause 20 turnovers and allow a paltry, almost unbelievable 3 assists. Of course ETSU had to play poorly and fail to adjust, too, which we were more than capable of doing.
McCloud played 33 minutes. Seemed to me that he had the point more in the second half, and that's part of what allowed Bradford to get more shots. (But a lot of it was just Bradford willing himself to score, in a well-if-nobody-else-can-then-I-will effort.) Maybe we'll see McCloud more at the point purposely after tonight; hard to say.
I'm mildly surprised Forbes didn't at least try a double high post once or twice. But we were moving the ball around pretty well (though not in a recognizably organized fashion most of the time). Might be interesting to see if an Armus/Harrison double post combo could open up some lanes for a few plays. But historically, Forbes doesn't really like to do that.
Any word on Andre Edwards? He didn't appear to even travel with the team, I didn't see him or Gray on the bench last night. Is he hurt? Redshirted?
I was pleased with how Armus handled himself. I even liked that elbow he threw. We've needed a take-charge presence inside, and he might be it.
Otherwise the team was a mess. I trust Forbes to figure it out and bring them together.
(11-11-2017 11:47 AM)Bucster Wrote: [ -> ]Any word on Andre Edwards? He didn't appear to even travel with the team, I didn't see him or Gray on the bench last night. Is he hurt? Redshirted?
Curious about this too Bucster. Maybe they can only travel with so many?
Our 2 most glaring problems Friday night were turnovers and lack of assists. On the bright side, we out-rebounded them, had more blocks, and 1 less steal than they did. In other words, for the most part, we out-hustled them and beat them on a lot of stats that are influenced by individuals..
Where we really got hurt were the stats that depend on teamwork (assists and turnovers). These guys don't really know each other or what to expect out of their teammates. That leads to throwing the ball into situations leading to turnovers, not realizing your teammate is in trouble bringing the ball in (saw that quite a few times), and then trying to force shots because you don't trust the other guy to get it done.
The individual talent is there, but as we've been expecting, the team chemistry is nowhere close. Question is, how many games will it take them to get it figured out?
I project we'll see an ebb and flow until conference time, at which point things will level out. We saw this Forbes' first year, where we had a motley crew of a roster. I vividly recall in 2015 thinking we were going to to the sweet 16 (exaggeration) after beating Georgia Tech; then being utterly dejected after losing 3 straight to Charleston Southern, UNCW, and Tennessee Tech. The worst, however, was sitting in UNCA's arena getting pummeled by the Bulldogs. Subsequently, the Bucs went on to have a 25-win season.
Our rebounding and overall defense encourage me - I think both will be constants throughout the season. I am confident our senior guards will cohere, learn about one another, and take care of the ball. Their histories indicate that they know how to secure the ball. Individually, Mladen and Bo are working through their learning curves at exceptional rates. This is cause for hope. I also think James Harris is a sleeper on this team. He knows how to score, he just hasn't caught up defensively, yet.
(11-12-2017 07:56 AM)Bucfaithful Wrote: [ -> ]I project we'll see an ebb and flow until conference time, at which point things will level out. We saw this Forbes' first year, where we had a motley crew of a roster. I vividly recall in 2015 thinking we were going to to the sweet 16 (exaggeration) after beating Georgia Tech; then being utterly dejected after losing 3 straight to Charleston Southern, UNCW, and Tennessee Tech. The worst, however, was sitting in UNCA's arena getting pummeled by the Bulldogs. Subsequently, the Bucs went on to have a 25-win season.
Our rebounding and overall defense encourage me - I think both will be constants throughout the season. I am confident our senior guards will cohere, learn about one another, and take care of the ball. Their histories indicate that they know how to secure the ball. Individually, Mladen and Bo are working through their learning curves at exceptional rates. This is cause for hope. I also think James Harris is a sleeper on this team. He knows how to score, he just hasn't caught up defensively, yet.
The rebounding frankly was a bit of a positive surprise. Forbes has been repeating the mantra that rebounding must improve. NKU was a solid rebounding team last year (+4.4, 46th in D1 in rebounding margin) and returned all their front court players. Yet the Buc out rebounded them 43-40, led by Armus with 10, but with a solid team effort - 7 by Desonta, 6 by Hodges and 6 by McCloud. Jurkin in only 8 minutes added 3 rebounds and 4 points - not bad on a per minutes basis (equal to 9 rebounds and 12 points in 24 minutes).
Harrison doesn't yet attack either defense or rebounding with the energy that Forbes demands. Agree that there's a lot of potential in that big frame - hope that he can tap it.
I hate to keep harping on this..........but the main reason we outrebounded them was because of *our* turnovers. They were able to put up 6 more shots, but *15* more 3-pointers, with *8* more misses (despite our horrendous 3-ball shooting). You're just gonna get more rebounds with that number of missed long shots. If one uses a conservative(?) figure that the defense should get maybe 2/3 of missed long shots, that's 5-6 more rebounds for ETSU right there.
I'm not saying our rebounding was bad, but take it in the context of our vastly greater opportunities to *get* rebounds. It's kinda analogous to us having a significant advantage over Samford yesterday in # of plays run and time of possession - and yet lost by 35 points because they didn't need to bother grinding out long drives.
Also, as to Harrison, he only played 5 minutes, and I thought was decent, with a great block. I'm not sure what you saw in that game that led you to believe that he doesn't "attack defense or rebounding with the energy Forbes demands" - in 5 minutes. That may turn out to be true (although I suspect not), but again, I thought he at the very least held his own against Rodriguez in the scrimmage (and yes, we know R was hurt, but that didn't affect how Harrison played).
Bradford playing 37 minutes but having 0 assists is a problem - but he and everybody else in the world knows that, and it won't continue.
I'd like to be optimistic, too, and know that we will indeed develop some chemistry. But also realize this game could have been much worse, if NKU had shot the ball better - and they had tons of open looks they missed. It could have easily been a 28-30-pt. drubbing. (They were up 26 at one point.)
They'll be here for the rematch in 3 weeks; will be veeeeery interesting to see how we respond and adapt.
The Bucs beat them on both OFFENSIVE (13-11) and DEFENSIVE (30-29) rebounds. They weren't just picking up stray 3's at one end. The Bucs simply went to the boards hard and earned a lead in rebounds on BOTH ends.
As to Harrison - maybe I'm reading too much into 5 minutes, when he didn't do badly on a per minute basis with 2 rebounds and a block - give him Mladen Armus minutes and he MIGHT have parlayed that into 9 or 10 rebounds. And I did not see the scrimmages. But there's a reason that he's not getting the minutes yet. On one brief look I just didn't see him playing with the fire that, say, Bo Hodges does. Just an impression, and hopefully, not fully correct.
(11-12-2017 01:51 PM)swvabucsfan Wrote: [ -> ]The Bucs beat them on both OFFENSIVE (13-11) and DEFENSIVE (30-29) rebounds. They weren't just picking up stray 3's at one end. The Bucs simply went to the boards hard and earned a lead in rebounds on BOTH ends.
As to Harrison - maybe I'm reading too much into 5 minutes, when he didn't do badly on a per minute basis with 2 rebounds and a block - give him Mladen Armus minutes and he MIGHT have parlayed that into 9 or 10 rebounds. And I did not see the scrimmages. But there's a reason that he's not getting the minutes yet. On one brief look I just didn't see him playing with the fire that, say, Bo Hodges does.
I know that (about the rebounds). We held our own. I'm just saying that to crow about outrebounding them means little-to-nothing in the context of the game. We had more opportunities. When you miss 38 shots (not counting the 7 FTs), you're also going to have a lot of offensive rebound opportunities.
And very few players will play with the inspiration and "fire" that Hodges has. Once he learns to let the college game come to him, he'll be fine (at worst). Harrison is still an open question, but will have plenty of opportunity to show what he can do.
I also would love to see 12-15 minutes of Jurkin against Sav. St. - if that's working.
I’ll wait and see how the season and lineups unfold. But, I would have appreciated more use of a center and power forward at the same time. Especially since our guards were not getting it done shooting or driving. It’s the kind of game it would be nice to slow down and play a real halfcourt offense. There were too many wasted possessions driving into the paint 1 on 2-3. Granted that NKU’s pressure really disrupted the Bucs and was the main reason for such sloppy sets. ETSU just got overwhelmed executionally and was not experienced enough together or the benefactor of a superstar’s performance to come back. The game was completely manageable until the 2nd half breakdown.
(11-12-2017 02:28 PM)shampoo Wrote: [ -> ]I’ll wait and see how the season and lineups unfold. But, I would have appreciated more use of a center and power forward at the same time. Especially since our guards were not getting it done shooting or driving. It’s the kind of game it would be nice to slow down and play a real halfcourt offense. There were too many wasted possessions driving into the paint 1 on 2-3. Granted that NKU’s pressure really disrupted the Bucs and was the main reason for such sloppy sets. ETSU just got overwhelmed executionally and was not experienced enough together or the benefactor of a superstar’s performance to come back. The game was completely manageable until the 2nd half breakdown.
Good post. Completely agree, although even well before halftime I thought I could tell the way it was gonna play out. (But certainly it was still winnable. However that almost immediately changed within 3 minutes afterwards.)
(11-12-2017 02:06 PM)posterformerlyknownasthedoctor Wrote: [ -> ] (11-12-2017 01:51 PM)swvabucsfan Wrote: [ -> ]The Bucs beat them on both OFFENSIVE (13-11) and DEFENSIVE (30-29) rebounds. They weren't just picking up stray 3's at one end. The Bucs simply went to the boards hard and earned a lead in rebounds on BOTH ends.
As to Harrison - maybe I'm reading too much into 5 minutes, when he didn't do badly on a per minute basis with 2 rebounds and a block - give him Mladen Armus minutes and he MIGHT have parlayed that into 9 or 10 rebounds. And I did not see the scrimmages. But there's a reason that he's not getting the minutes yet. On one brief look I just didn't see him playing with the fire that, say, Bo Hodges does.
...
We had more opportunities. When you miss 38 shots (not counting the 7 FTs), you're also going to have a lot of offensive rebound opportunities.
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You're simply wrong here. We did NOT have
more opportunities. We missed 38 - BUT THEY MISSED 39 (27 of 66). They had 1 more opportunity than we did for an offensive board.
This is not a game to remember proudly. We looked bad in so many ways.
But we did outrebound a good rebounding team on BOTH ends of the floor in a way which is NOT explicable either by reference to missed 3's or to misses in general. That should not be overly celebrated, but it certainly should not be ignored.
(11-12-2017 05:57 PM)swvabucsfan Wrote: [ -> ] (11-12-2017 02:06 PM)posterformerlyknownasthedoctor Wrote: [ -> ] (11-12-2017 01:51 PM)swvabucsfan Wrote: [ -> ]The Bucs beat them on both OFFENSIVE (13-11) and DEFENSIVE (30-29) rebounds. They weren't just picking up stray 3's at one end. The Bucs simply went to the boards hard and earned a lead in rebounds on BOTH ends.
...
We had more opportunities. When you miss 38 shots (not counting the 7 FTs), you're also going to have a lot of offensive rebound opportunities.
...
You're simply wrong here. We did NOT have more opportunities. We missed 38 - BUT THEY MISSED 39 (27 of 66). They had 1 more opportunity than we did for an offensive board.
But we did outrebound a good rebounding team on BOTH ends of the floor in a way which is NOT explicable either by reference to missed 3's or to misses in general. That should not be overly celebrated, but it certainly should not be ignored.
First......let me clarify that when I wrote: "We had more opportunities..." I was comparing it to an average game in which a team would shoot better - and not miss 38 FGs. I would think this would have been clear from the context, as my very next follow-up sentence was "When you miss 38 shots (not counting the 7 FTs), you're also going to have a lot of offensive rebound opportunities." I was making the point that there were simply more rebounds - both offensive and defensive - to be had (by both teams). I was *not* saying we had "more opportunities" in the literal sense, but I'll admit my meaning was not precise. I obviously (hopefully) knew we didn't have more *literal* opportunities, because I would not have 'done the math' only on our side and not on theirs, too. So I knew they missed 39 FG shots.
Secondly......you're technically wrong even on that (*literal* offensive rebound opportunities). When one adds in the missed FTs (7 by us; 3 by them), one gets a "total missed shots" of 45 by us; 42 by them. Although you don't expect to pick up many offensive boards on missed FTs, they *are* "opportunities". Thus, technically, we had more opportunities for offensive rebounds than they did. Further, as I wrote that earlier post, I knew, and had added up, even that. But that's a technicality, and my real rejoinder is my first paragraph above.
Going back to omitting the FTs....ETSU had 30 defensive boards on 39 chances; NKU had 29 defensive boards on 38 chances. I'd call that a wash.
Lastly, and I'm sure you know this.......this is trivial in the grand scheme of things. Yes - technically we "outrebounded" them - on both ends - but I'll still maintain that because they missed 8 more 3-pt. attempts, that just gives a greater chance for an ETSU defensive rebound than an inside shot. At least that's standard basketball theory. Since rebounds are only broken down into O and D, and not sub-divided into sources, we'd have to tabulate it shot-by-shot. And I don't think either of us is interested in that.
Again, we held our own on the boards. And we also had the edge in plays run and time-of-possession yesterday vs. Samford - but got stomped. If a game is close, then yes, rebounding can be the deciding factor. Yesterday, even if we had won the rebound battle by 10, it wouldn't have made any difference in the outcome. Context, like so many things in life, is crucial. All that said......yes, we battled pretty well on the boards against a team that at least last year was a good rebounding team. So nothing to be upset about there at all.
I respect your opinion(s), so maybe we'll just have to agree to disagree on this.
The only numbers that matter to me are 81-63. Call me Debbie Downer if you want but this was a horrendous performance. Defense was terrible - evidenced by 81 pts allowed. Rebounding nearly as bad given they barely covered 50% of them to a team that missed 29 3s. Only got 14 turnovers with most of those unforced. Offense disjointed at best. No ball movement. Too many sets ran with no motion. Too much "get mine" 1on1. Didn't force tempo. Need I mention turnovers? All these Sr guards but can't inbound against a weak press. And 2-18 from 3? Really? NKY is decent team but Bucs made them look a lot better. Hoping this was a first night throwaway but fearful the problem is deeper than the numbers.
(11-13-2017 05:58 AM)PreacherPurl Wrote: [ -> ]....a team that missed 29 3s. .
Just to be accurate, NKU missed 39 FG attempts total. 'Only' 24 of them were 3s.