I think that people are seriously underestimating the possibility of chaos on the final weekend...and it's because there has yet to BE chaos on the final weekend in the CFP era.
CCGs in Playoff Era
2014
#6 OSU crushes #11 Wiscy (moves up and in past non-CCG Big 12 teams)
#1 Bama wins over #14 Mizzou
#2 FSU wins over #12 GaTech
#3 Oregon wins over #8 Arizona
2015
#5 MSU beats #4 Iowa (generally known that winner would be in playoff--not a real upset--equals)
#2 Bama wins over #18 Florida
#1 Clemson win over #8 UNC
#7 Stanford win #24 USC
2016
#8 PSU beats #6 Wiscy (equals--both were outside shots at moving in anyway)
#1 Bama wins over #15 Florida
#2 Clemson wins over #19 VaTech
#4 Washington wins over #9 Colorado
That's 10 of 12 CCGs won by the top seeds...and the other 2 a mere difference of 2-seed underdog (Big Ten 2016) and 1-seed underdog (Big Ten 2015). Functionally, there hasn't been one upset on CCG weekend in three years. That's pretty anomalous.
Pre-playoff CCG History
The Big Ten had three straight upsets in the pre-playoff CCGs. The Pac-12 though has no upsets in their three pre-playoff CCGs. The ACC had 3 upsets in their 9 pre-playoff CCGs. The SEC had 5 upsets in 22 years of pre-playoff CCGs. The Big 12 had 5 upsets in the 15 pre-playoff CCGs that they had.
Tally it up...and there have been 16 upsets in 42 CCGs (38%). That's more than an upset every third game.
But the last three years, we've seen it go 10-2 to the favorites (and those two losses were essentially toss-up games). We are due for some upsets.
(11-03-2017 07:35 AM)micahandme Wrote: [ -> ]But the last three years, we've seen it go 10-2 to the favorites (and those two losses were essentially toss-up games). We are due for some upsets.
Maybe it's just that we're talking about a small 3-year sample, so it's just a statistical anomaly. But maybe, the expansion from a 2-team to 4-team playoff has increased the incentive for the better team to stay focused and win their CCG.
Bottom line is that with expansion from 2-team to 4-team playoff, more CCG games each year are relevant in terms of being stepping-stones to playing for the national title. Importantly, the incentive to win is much greater for the higher-ranked team, particularly when there is a big disparity, because the lower-ranked team knows it isn't making the playoffs even with a win.
E.g., if #4 Georgia plays #17 Auburn in the SEC title game, Georgia has a massive incentive, it wins and it makes the playoffs. Auburn, OTOH, knows it isn't making the playoffs even it does upset Georgia.
I just want the cfp semis to be close it seems like its been mostly blowouts. The contract bowls that are not in rotation have been the best games
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also while you see things like 5 over 4 and 8 over 6- those are counting as upsets but they aren't at all. So how many of those 16 upsets have really been upsets. I mean just looking at the SEC and their "upsets"
2009 2 Alabama over 1 Florida
2008 2 Florida over 1 Alabama
2005 13 Tennessee over 3 LSU
2001 21 LSU over 2 Tennessee
1999 7 Alabama over 5 Florida
1994 6 Florida over 3 Alabama
(so I actually see 6). But realistically 4 of the 6 aren't upsets at all.
(11-03-2017 07:51 AM)quo vadis Wrote: [ -> ] (11-03-2017 07:35 AM)micahandme Wrote: [ -> ]But the last three years, we've seen it go 10-2 to the favorites (and those two losses were essentially toss-up games). We are due for some upsets.
Maybe it's just that we're talking about a small 3-year sample, so it's just a statistical anomaly. But maybe, the expansion from a 2-team to 4-team playoff has increased the incentive for the better team to stay focused and win their CCG.
Bottom line is that with expansion from 2-team to 4-team playoff, more CCG games each year are relevant in terms of being stepping-stones to playing for the national title. Importantly, the incentive to win is much greater for the higher-ranked team, particularly when there is a big disparity, because the lower-ranked team knows it isn't making the playoffs even with a win.
E.g., if #4 Georgia plays #17 Auburn in the SEC title game, Georgia has a massive incentive, it wins and it makes the playoffs. Auburn, OTOH, knows it isn't making the playoffs even it does upset Georgia.
To make the lower team fight harder you would have to have a guarantee spot for conference champions (which I agree with every other sport if you win the conference you make the playoffs, if a team wins the SEC they should be in the playoffs or Big Ten). I still think you do the conference champions on the same date as now and the week after have the first round of the playoffs. All P5 conference champions, G5 champion, and two at larges. That becomes a defacto 16 team playoff with wild cards pretty much.
Top 4 teams host first round on campus.
SEC Championship
Alabama vs. Georgia
Big Ten Championship
Ohio State vs. Wisconsin
PAC-12 Championship
USC vs. Washington State
Big 12 Championship
Oklahoma vs. TCU
ACC Championship
Clemson vs. Virginia Tech
#8 UCF @ #1 Georgia
#7 Auburn @ #2 Clemson
#6 Washington @ #3 Ohio State
#5 Alabama @ #4 TCU
The Big 12 was the one who had more true upsets in its CCG. Like about 1/3 of the time.
I think the betting lines would be interesting to look at both the last three years and historically to better define upset.
(11-03-2017 07:35 AM)micahandme Wrote: [ -> ]I think that people are seriously underestimating the possibility of chaos on the final weekend...and it's because there has yet to BE chaos on the final weekend in the CFP era.
CCGs in Playoff Era
2014
#6 OSU crushes #11 Wiscy (moves up and in past non-CCG Big 12 teams)
#1 Bama wins over #14 Mizzou
#2 FSU wins over #12 GaTech
#3 Oregon wins over #8 Arizona
2015
#5 MSU beats #4 Iowa (generally known that winner would be in playoff--not a real upset--equals)
#2 Bama wins over #18 Florida
#1 Clemson win over #8 UNC
#7 Stanford win #24 USC
2016
#8 PSU beats #6 Wiscy (equals--both were outside shots at moving in anyway)
#1 Bama wins over #15 Florida
#2 Clemson wins over #19 VaTech
#4 Washington wins over #9 Colorado
That's 10 of 12 CCGs won by the top seeds...and the other 2 a mere difference of 2-seed underdog (Big Ten 2016) and 1-seed underdog (Big Ten 2015). Functionally, there hasn't been one upset on CCG weekend in three years. That's pretty anomalous.
Pre-playoff CCG History
The Big Ten had three straight upsets in the pre-playoff CCGs. The Pac-12 though has no upsets in their three pre-playoff CCGs. The ACC had 3 upsets in their 9 pre-playoff CCGs. The SEC had 5 upsets in 22 years of pre-playoff CCGs. The Big 12 had 5 upsets in the 15 pre-playoff CCGs that they had.
Tally it up...and there have been 16 upsets in 42 CCGs (38%). That's more than an upset every third game.
But the last three years, we've seen it go 10-2 to the favorites (and those two losses were essentially toss-up games). We are due for some upsets.
In other words, everyone has ccgs like the Big 12 did where surprises were the rule, not the exception.
the difference with Big 12 was all of theirs were real upsets. I showed SEC already. Here's the Big 12's 5 upsets
96 Texas over 3 Nebraska
98 10 A&M over 2 Kansas St
01 9 Colorado over 3 Texas
03 13 Kansas St over 1 Oklahoma
07 9 Oklahoma over 1 Missouri
all 5 of these were real upsets- compared to only 2 real upsets for the SEC. Real upset=5 spots or more.
So- in all the CCG history- not just last 3 years or before that- but everything....
B12- 5/15 upsets
SEC- 2/25 upsets
B10- 2/6 upsets
ACC- 3/12 upsets
P12- 0/6 upsets
so it's been 12/64 upsets total. Or 18.75%.
Was the 2007 Big 12 title game a true upset? Pretty sure Missouri was an underdog vs. OU.
(11-03-2017 09:47 AM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ]the difference with Big 12 was all of theirs were real upsets. I showed SEC already. Here's the Big 12's 5 upsets
96 Texas over 3 Nebraska
98 10 A&M over 2 Kansas St
01 9 Colorado over 3 Texas
03 13 Kansas St over 1 Oklahoma
07 9 Oklahoma over 1 Missouri
all 5 of these were real upsets- compared to only 2 real upsets for the SEC. Real upset=5 spots or more.
So- in all the CCG history- not just last 3 years or before that- but everything....
B12- 5/15 upsets
SEC- 2/25 upsets
B10- 2/6 upsets
ACC- 3/12 upsets
P12- 0/6 upsets
so it's been 12/64 upsets total. Or 18.75%.
And 3 of those games knocked teams out of the BCS title game. Nebraska would have been just out in 1996 and OU managed to get in anyway in 2003.
Miami Clemson would be a potential play in game if they win out.
Bama UGa could be a play in game.
OSU Wisconsin could be a play in game.
Big 12 CCG could be a win and in.
Hardly David vs Goliath matchups though. I think this is a year where the CCG helps every conference way more than it hurts, because having that extra data point is huge.
(11-03-2017 08:32 AM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ]also while you see things like 5 over 4 and 8 over 6- those are counting as upsets but they aren't at all. So how many of those 16 upsets have really been upsets. I mean just looking at the SEC and their "upsets"
2009 2 Alabama over 1 Florida
2008 2 Florida over 1 Alabama
2005 13 Tennessee over 3 LSU
2001 21 LSU over 2 Tennessee
1999 7 Alabama over 5 Florida
1994 6 Florida over 3 Alabama
(so I actually see 6). But realistically 4 of the 6 aren't upsets at all.
I'm fine with throwing out all of those but 2001 and 2005. That's a significant difference in rankings (3 vs. 13 and 2 vs. 21).
However, in the new playoff era, if a team were to get knocked out of the playoff (again, hasn't happened yet!), I don't care if it was #6 that knocked out #4...that's an upset if the conference LOSES their bid because of it. (Unlike the "play-in" game for the Big Ten in 2015.)
(11-03-2017 09:47 AM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ]the difference with Big 12 was all of theirs were real upsets. I showed SEC already. Here's the Big 12's 5 upsets
96 Texas over 3 Nebraska
98 10 A&M over 2 Kansas St
01 9 Colorado over 3 Texas
03 13 Kansas St over 1 Oklahoma
07 9 Oklahoma over 1 Missouri
all 5 of these were real upsets- compared to only 2 real upsets for the SEC. Real upset=5 spots or more.
So- in all the CCG history- not just last 3 years or before that- but everything....
B12- 5/15 upsets
SEC- 2/25 upsets
B10- 2/6 upsets
ACC- 3/12 upsets
P12- 0/6 upsets
so it's been 12/64 upsets total. Or 18.75%.
Ok...then I'm definitely not counting PSU over Wiscy or MSU over Iowa as upsets.
So...I'll put your 18.75% upset-rate all-time up against my 0% in the past 3 years...and affirm my thesis---we are DUE for some upsets in the CCG. And with 5 CCGs this year instead of 4 (as its been the past 3 years), I think the playoff race is going to be wide open heading into the final weekend.
(11-04-2017 05:02 AM)micahandme Wrote: [ -> ] (11-03-2017 09:47 AM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ]the difference with Big 12 was all of theirs were real upsets. I showed SEC already. Here's the Big 12's 5 upsets
96 Texas over 3 Nebraska
98 10 A&M over 2 Kansas St
01 9 Colorado over 3 Texas
03 13 Kansas St over 1 Oklahoma
07 9 Oklahoma over 1 Missouri
all 5 of these were real upsets- compared to only 2 real upsets for the SEC. Real upset=5 spots or more.
So- in all the CCG history- not just last 3 years or before that- but everything....
B12- 5/15 upsets
SEC- 2/25 upsets
B10- 2/6 upsets
ACC- 3/12 upsets
P12- 0/6 upsets
so it's been 12/64 upsets total. Or 18.75%.
Ok...then I'm definitely not counting PSU over Wiscy or MSU over Iowa as upsets.
So...I'll put your 18.75% upset-rate all-time up against my 0% in the past 3 years...and affirm my thesis---we are DUE for some upsets in the CCG. And with 5 CCGs this year instead of 4 (as its been the past 3 years), I think the playoff race is going to be wide open heading into the final weekend.
the thing is- the upsets have to actually matter. If # 20 USC beats #10 Washington- yes it's an upset but it doesn't mean anything.
(11-04-2017 04:58 AM)micahandme Wrote: [ -> ] (11-03-2017 08:32 AM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ]also while you see things like 5 over 4 and 8 over 6- those are counting as upsets but they aren't at all. So how many of those 16 upsets have really been upsets. I mean just looking at the SEC and their "upsets"
2009 2 Alabama over 1 Florida
2008 2 Florida over 1 Alabama
2005 13 Tennessee over 3 LSU
2001 21 LSU over 2 Tennessee
1999 7 Alabama over 5 Florida
1994 6 Florida over 3 Alabama
(so I actually see 6). But realistically 4 of the 6 aren't upsets at all.
I'm fine with throwing out all of those but 2001 and 2005. That's a significant difference in rankings (3 vs. 13 and 2 vs. 21).
However, in the new playoff era, if a team were to get knocked out of the playoff (again, hasn't happened yet!), I don't care if it was #6 that knocked out #4...that's an upset if the conference LOSES their bid because of it. (Unlike the "play-in" game for the Big Ten in 2015.)
If 6 beats a 4, I think 99% of the time, the 6 would just take the 4's spot. Not much the 5 could do to prevent it.