CSNbbs

This is by no means an FN Bowl Watch or anything of the sort, but I was going to reply with some analysis of our bowl situation in another thread and then thought this might be better isolated into its own thread because it got pretty long. It's also nerdy (and mostly useless - JUST WIN BABY).

The point of this analysis is to see where UAB stands among the rest of the 130 FBS teams at becoming bowl eligible. I am not talking about bowl tie-ins, etc because the new rule is that bowls have to pick 6-6 teams over sub .500 teams. All win/loss predictions are based on ESPN's win/loss chance.

UAB's primary goal is to make it to 6-6 and this is an analysis of where we stand as of right now if we are able to do that.

There are 39 bowls with 78 spots. That leaves 52 teams sitting home.
We have 5 weeks left in the season.

Out of 130 FBS teams, 10 teams are already bowl ineligible. 10 teams are a loss away from being bowl ineligible.
Let's take a chance and say all those teams will be bowl ineligible.

52 - 20 = 32 teams left

13 more teams have to win all but one of the remaining games in order to be bowl eligible. Let's take a look at those teams:

Pitt (has to beat either #13 VT and #8 Miami to get to 6 wins) - Not Likely
Temple (not favored in any of their next 4 game) - Not Likely
Miami OH (favored against 3 of their next 4 games) - Likely
Buffalo (favored against 2 of their next 4 games, has to beat Akron on the road or Ohio at home) - Toss-up
MTSU (has to beat UTEP, Charlotte, and ODU) - Likely
Arkansas (has to beat Ole Miss on the road and LSU on the road) - Not Likely
Missouri (only favored in 1 of their next 5 games) - Not Likely
E Michigan (only favored in 2 of their next 5 games) - Not Likely
Illinois (Not favored in any of their next 5 games, and have to beat #5 Wisc or #6 Ohio State) - Not Likely
UNLV (only favored in 1 of their next 5 games) - Not Likely
ODU (only favored in 2 of their next 5 games, have to play UNT, FIU, and MTSU on the road) - Not Likely
Idaho (only favored in 1 of their next 5 games) - Not Likely
Ball State (not favored in any of their next 5 games) - Not Likely

Of these 13 teams, 10 are most likely NOT going to be bowl eligible.

32-10

That leaves 22 teams.

20 teams already below .500 with 4 losses so far this season and have to prevent 2 losses to be bowl eligible. Let's look at those teams:

Texas (favored in 4 of next 5 games) - Likely
Kansas State (favored in 3 out of next 5, but has to play #22 West Virginia, #11 Oklahoma State, and #25 Iowa State to end the season) - Toss Up
Indiana (favored in 4 of next 5) - Likely
Tennessee (favored in 3 of next 5) - Likely
Purdue (only favored in 2 of next 5, but the final home game against Indiana could go either way) - Toss Up
Nebraska (not favored at all in next 5 games) - Unlikely
Maryland (only favored in 1 of next 5 games) - Unlikely
Vanderbilt (only favored in 2 of next 5 games) - Unlikely
Tulane (only favored in 2 of next 5 games) - Unlikely
Rutgers (not favored at all in next 5 games) - Unlikely
Air Force (only favored in 2 of next 5 games) - Unlikely
La Tech (favored in 4 of next 5 games, Rice and UTEP are gimmes, just needs to be UNT, FAU, or UTSA at home) - Likely
New Mexico St. (favored in 4 of next 5 games) - Likely
New Mexico (only favored in 1 of next 5 games) - Unlikely
South Alabama (only favored in 2 of next 5 games, but Georgia State game could go either way) - Toss Up
UL Monroe (only favored in 1 of next 4 games) - Unlikely
Hawaii (only favored in 1 of next 5 games) - Unlikely
UConn (not favored at all in next 5 games) - Unlikely
Lousiana (only favored in 1 of next 5 games) - Unlikely
Florida State (favored in 4 of next 5 games) - Likely

So out of those 20 teams, 11 of them are unlikely to be bowl eligible.

20-11

That means that UAB needs to beat out 9 other teams for a spot from the following pool:

1 Toss-Up Team that has to win all but one remaining games
3 Toss-Up Teams that are below .500 and have to win all but 2 remaining games
9 Teams that are currently at 4-4 and have to go at least 2-2 for the rest of the season.
12 Teams (in addition to UAB) that are currently at 4-3 and have to go at least 2-3 for the rest of the season.

Of that pool that are not toss-ups, the following teams are not likely to meet bowl eligibility:
Colorado (4-4)
California (4-4)
Boston College (4-4)
Duke (4-4)
Minnesota (4-3)
Utah (4-3)
Wake Forest (4-3)

Interesting. Thanks for the research work.

most the projections show 8 conference usa teams bowling..if there's eight, we are going.. assuming we are eligible. (6-6)

JUST WIN BABY!!!
And thanks for the analysis

How many bowl bids does CUSA get automatically (without filling other conference's bids)?

6

I enjoyed this analysis...hope for more of it

Update.....please

It will definitely get interesting the closer we get to the end of the regular season.

Maybe UAB can bump up a few notches on the totem pole instead of settling for scraps.

I appreciate the feedback everyone. I don't know if I'll be able to do another full analysis like this for Week 10 (I will if I can), but I will provide some key updates here:

The South Alabama/Georgia State game that was a toss-up went to Georgia State...turning them from a Toss Up to an Unlikely.

Buffalo lost on the road to Akron and now have to beat the Ohio Bobcats (currently 6-2 and 2nd in their division), which turns them from a Toss Up to an Unlikely.

Purdue lost at home to Nebraska, and now have to beat either Northwestern or Iowa away to make the last home game against Indiana even matter. That turns them from a Toss Up to an Unlikely.


So 3 out of the 4 Toss-Ups turned out in UAB's favor.

And Florida State lost on Friday. They're sitting at 2-5 with only 4 games remaining. They'll have to win all 4 in order to be bowl eligible and one of their remaining games is Clemson.

jerry palms projections this week had a comment that he wad 3 5-7 teams in bowl games. Therefore, UAB would get in with 6 wins if nothing changed..

(10-30-2017 01:40 PM)blazinrunner Wrote: [ -> ]And Florida State lost on Friday. They're sitting at 2-5 with only 4 games remaining. They'll have to win all 4 in order to be bowl eligible and one of their remaining games is Clemson.

Yep. They moved from a Likely and skipped straight to Hell Naw with that loss.

39 games including bcs semi finalists.
78 teams. Looks like AAC, ACC, Big 10, and others may be short on teams for slotted spots.
Fiesta, Peach, and semifinals are all at large and as they are filled more slots open up.
If CUSA has ten 6win+ teams, I think all will get an invite.
Now the question is which bowls will strike a deal early to avoid getting a losing team?
Whichever bowl is at the bottom of P5 pecking order will be looking for a good substitute.
UAB is an attractive sub with a great story and new energized fan base.
We need to jump on a firm offer from a higher payout bowl. If offered. Lay it out there.
Liberty, Independence, ...

It would be much easier for me to travel to a Dec 16 bowl (New Orleans, Cure, New Mexico). But I really do want a nicer gig vs a P5 team.

Anyone have a list of the C-USA tie-in bowls with their order of choice? (eg, which bowl gets C-USA Champ, which gets runner up, which gets next best records, and so on)

Right chyeer.

http://conferenceusa.com/sports/2016/7/1...-html.aspx

(10-31-2017 10:30 AM)blzrclub80 Wrote: [ -> ]Anyone have a list of the C-USA tie-in bowls with their order of choice? (eg, which bowl gets C-USA Champ, which gets runner up, which gets next best records, and so on)

It’s not quite that black and white. Conf champ basically gets to pick where they go...after that, it’s like finding a prom date...

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nc...814744001/ Frisco Bowl. also has 10 C-USA teams bowling..

That was the crap bowl that chose Troy a few years back.

Didn't draw flies & would have a hard time drawing flies with the proposed match up listed.