Given (3) extraordinarily weak teams this year and the relative parity demonstrated by the other 10 teams through the first half of this season, we are currently lined up for an unprecedented log-jam in each of this conferences divisions.
Here's a projection of regular season records given a cursory look at each teams remaining schedules and past performance. Marshall and FIU haven't really gotten in to the teeth of their conference schedules, though most everyone else has.
Anyways, given 2-3 locked conference wins, an OOC of .500 and unusual parity among the remaining schools, we are in for a barn-burner of a final six weeks to this season. Every Game Matters.
Projected Final Regular Season Records:
1.) Marshall (5-1): projected wins 4; Regular Season 9-3
2.) La Tech (3-3): projected wins 4; Regular Season 7-5
3.) UNT (4-2): projected wins 4; Regular Season 8-4
4.) FL Atlantic (3-3): projected wins 4; Regular Season 7-5
5.) USM (4-2): projected wins 3; Regular Season 7-5
6.) WKU (4-2): projected wins 3; Regular Season 7-5
7.) UTSA (3-2): projected wins 4; Regular Season 7-4 (only 11 games ?)
8.) MTSU (3-4): projected wins 4; Regular Season 7-5
9.) UAB (4-2): projected wins 3; Regular Season 7-5
10.) FIU (4-2): projected wins 3; Regular Season 7-5 (replaced road IU with home UMass)
11.) ODU (2-4): projected wins 3; Regular Season 5-7
12.) Rice (1-5): projected wins 0; Regular Season 1-11
13.) Charlotte (0-7): projected wins 0; Regular Season 0-12
14.) UTEP (0-7): projected wins 0; Regular Season 0-12
(10-15-2017 11:00 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote: [ -> ]Ten bowl teams?
Nine teams at .500 or better and MTSU has UTEP, Charlotte and ODU at home to [help] get to (7).
Who finds something on offense that works and gets "hot"? UNT found it. WKU? Marshall? If the old adage, "Defense wins championships" holds true, then I like USM and Marshall's chances.
If we have 10 bowl eligible teams, I think some of us will be sitting at home.
I'm not seeing enough wins for MT at this point to get bowl eligibility, and surprisingly, I'm okay with that, as long as it triggers some kind of reaction somewhere in the bowels of the Murphy Center that eventually leads to a change in leadership.
(10-15-2017 11:14 AM)hooverblazer Wrote: [ -> ]If we have 10 bowl eligible teams, I think some of us will be sitting at home.
No way. We have 40 bowls. They had like 5 5-7 teams go last year. If we have 10 BE teams, they are all packing their bags for postseason play.
A lot of good storylines in C-USA for any bowl eligible team to stay home IMO.
(10-15-2017 11:14 AM)hooverblazer Wrote: [ -> ]If we have 10 bowl eligible teams, I think some of us will be sitting at home.
Remember, all 6-6 teams get a bowl before any 5 win P5 teams get invites. So who knows. A hek of a lot better situation than not having enough bowl eligible teams to fill out your conference bowl slots.
(10-15-2017 11:26 AM)BlueraiderJT Wrote: [ -> ] (10-15-2017 11:14 AM)hooverblazer Wrote: [ -> ]If we have 10 bowl eligible teams, I think some of us will be sitting at home.
No way. We have 40 bowls. They had like 5 5-7 teams go last year. If we have 10 BE teams, they are all packing their bags for postseason play.
39 bowl games excluding the CFP final. 78 bowl teams this year, not 80.
9 teams could go bowling, but one team likely gets left out if 10 get eligible.
MT won't make a bowl because we're going to have 10k for every game here on out. This season is an absolute disaster.
UTEP, Charlotte and Rice will be fighting each week for a win.
I don’t think they all go winless from here on out.
Id be surprised if we lose 2 of our remaining games. Maybe see us losing UTSA because we have a knack for not winning on the road in Texas, and UTSA is a solid team, but who knows.
Using the Sagarin Predictor for the rest of the schedules excluding championship games, 81 teams would be at 6-6 or better. That wouldn't include Florida at 5-6 (possible NCAA waiver for having a game lost due to weather) and BYU at 6-7.
Conference breakdown would be AAC 6, ACC 10, Big 12 7, Big Ten 9, C-USA 10, Indy 2, MAC 7, MWC 7, Pac 12 9, SEC 9, SBC 5. Three teams from that group would miss out (4 if Florida manages to get in).
(10-15-2017 06:42 PM)FriscoDawg Wrote: [ -> ]Using the Sagarin Predictor for the rest of the schedules excluding championship games, 81 teams would be at 6-6 or better. That wouldn't include Florida at 5-6 (possible NCAA waiver for having a game lost due to weather) and BYU at 6-7.
Conference breakdown would be AAC 6, ACC 10, Big 12 7, Big Ten 9, C-USA 10, Indy 2, MAC 7, MWC 7, Pac 12 9, SEC 9, SBC 5. Three teams from that group would miss out (4 if Florida manages to get in).
That would be a screwy scenario for CUSA. P5 covers more of their slots than usual, and a ton of teams barely get eligible. At least 3 teams get left out of the 10 if that scenario comes to pass.
Mark it down: UAB and La Tech both finish with the same record but the Bulldogs get left out while UAB goes bowling...just because.
(10-15-2017 11:16 PM)chiefsfan Wrote: [ -> ] (10-15-2017 06:42 PM)FriscoDawg Wrote: [ -> ]Using the Sagarin Predictor for the rest of the schedules excluding championship games, 81 teams would be at 6-6 or better. That wouldn't include Florida at 5-6 (possible NCAA waiver for having a game lost due to weather) and BYU at 6-7.
Conference breakdown would be AAC 6, ACC 10, Big 12 7, Big Ten 9, C-USA 10, Indy 2, MAC 7, MWC 7, Pac 12 9, SEC 9, SBC 5. Three teams from that group would miss out (4 if Florida manages to get in).
That would be a screwy scenario for CUSA. P5 covers more of their slots than usual, and a ton of teams barely get eligible. At least 3 teams get left out of the 10 if that scenario comes to pass.
Don't seven win teams get in before 6-6 teams? The OP projects CUSA with 10 seven win teams.
(10-16-2017 08:27 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote: [ -> ] (10-15-2017 11:16 PM)chiefsfan Wrote: [ -> ] (10-15-2017 06:42 PM)FriscoDawg Wrote: [ -> ]Using the Sagarin Predictor for the rest of the schedules excluding championship games, 81 teams would be at 6-6 or better. That wouldn't include Florida at 5-6 (possible NCAA waiver for having a game lost due to weather) and BYU at 6-7.
Conference breakdown would be AAC 6, ACC 10, Big 12 7, Big Ten 9, C-USA 10, Indy 2, MAC 7, MWC 7, Pac 12 9, SEC 9, SBC 5. Three teams from that group would miss out (4 if Florida manages to get in).
That would be a screwy scenario for CUSA. P5 covers more of their slots than usual, and a ton of teams barely get eligible. At least 3 teams get left out of the 10 if that scenario comes to pass.
Don't seven win teams get in before 6-6 teams? The OP projects CUSA with 10 seven win teams.
I am afraid that a 6-6 Tennessee team gets accepted before a 7-5 (if that's where we get at the end of regular season) FAU team.
(10-15-2017 05:08 PM)goherd24herdfans Wrote: [ -> ]Id be surprised if we lose 2 of our remaining games. Maybe see us losing UTSA because we have a knack for not winning on the road in Texas, and UTSA is a solid team, but who knows.
Since no one but Phil Steele does any research on non power schools at the beginning of the season Massey had us favored in 2 games, Charlotte and FIU and ESPN had us favored in 3 games Charlotte, ODU and FIU.
Now Massey has us favored in the rest of our games and has us going 11-1. ESPN has us favored 4 of the next 6, only games against FAU and UTSA are less than 50%. Which would have us finishing 9-3.
I can see us going anywhere between 9-3 or 11-1. I would even be happy to settle for the middle of the road at 10-2.
As far as 10 teams in CUSA being 6-6 or better and bowl eligible I just don't see it happening. Maybe 7 and even 8 if we would be lucky but someone will trip up somewhere and lose games they probably shouldn't.
Last year, we had a major deficit of 6 wins or better teams. This year so far, we seem to be at a surplus. I have like 46 teams headed for 5 wins or less which still leaves like a 5 team surplus. I think we will have teams sitting at home with 6 wins now unless something even weirder happens.