(11-02-2017 07:36 AM)ODU AGGIE Wrote: [ -> ]OK. For all you round ball guys -- just how good do you think the Monarchs will be this year? As a guy not all that close to the program, I am getting a little excited just reading the stuff you guys are putting up here. So how many wins do you see for the regular season? 22? 24? -- more than that? It's starting to sound to me like this could well be a 23-24 win season. Yes? No?
I think we could be very good this year (+24 wins) provided a couple of things happen:
1-Porter and B.Stith have to stay out of foul trouble
2-We have to have a serviceable backup PG.
3-If we avg +63 pts/game by getting easy baskets in transition or on the secondary break that should be enough to win most games.
4-We will need to have a couple of players (Carver, Green, Haynes, Hueitt, Godwin) set up offensively.
5-Stay healthy
The big question will be.... if we have over 24 wins will that be enough to get us to the NCAAs? I still think we must win the CUSA Tournament because our RPI will likely not be very good based on our schedule.
(11-02-2017 07:54 AM)Mr.BigBlue Wrote: [ -> ] (11-02-2017 07:36 AM)ODU AGGIE Wrote: [ -> ]OK. For all you round ball guys -- just how good do you think the Monarchs will be this year? As a guy not all that close to the program, I am getting a little excited just reading the stuff you guys are putting up here. So how many wins do you see for the regular season? 22? 24? -- more than that? It's starting to sound to me like this could well be a 23-24 win season. Yes? No?
I think we could be very good this year (+24 wins) provided a couple of things happen:
1-Porter and B.Stith have to stay out of foul trouble
2-We have to have a serviceable backup PG.
3-If we avg +63 pts/game by getting easy baskets in transition or on the secondary break that should be enough to win most games.
4-We will need to have a couple of players (Carver, Green, Haynes, Hueitt, Godwin) set up offensively.
5-Stay healthy
The big question will be.... if we have over 24 wins will that be enough to get us to the NCAAs? I still think we must win the CUSA Tournament because our RPI will likely not be very good based on our schedule.
Staying healthy should be higher on the list
(11-02-2017 07:49 AM)ODUDrunkard13 Wrote: [ -> ] (11-02-2017 07:36 AM)ODU AGGIE Wrote: [ -> ]OK. For all you round ball guys -- just how good do you think the Monarchs will be this year? As a guy not all that close to the program, I am getting a little excited just reading the stuff you guys are putting up here. So how many wins do you see for the regular season? 22? 24? -- more than that? It's starting to sound to me like this could well be a 23-24 win season. Yes? No?
I'm not one for predictions or guarantees. But given that they won 19 with a tougher OOC schedule last year and the maturation of our core, 23 wins seems like it should be the minimum expectation. Any more is great. But less than 23, something went really wrong.
You don't think losing Denzel Taylor is going to hurt badly? I know he was no offensive juggernaut, but he was at least able to make up for it on the other end and took a leadership position as well. With foul issues with Brandan imminent and Porter's stamina due to his health, either Carver or Vassor (if not both) will have to play significant minutes. Either way, that is a huge step down from Denzel Taylor on the defensive end without any improvement offensively. I know there is some sense that BJ may be playing some PF to compensate, but I am worried about the mismatch that will create on the defensive end, especially against big teams like UTEP. I really hope they can get 23+ wins and maybe I am guarding against disappointment, but what I am really hoping to see this year is ongoing improvement from the 3 freshmen and an all-conference type season from Caver where maybe we can catch lightning in a bottle at the conference tournament. Of course, preseason predictions are meaningless and solely entertainment, but I'll be at the Towson game and may change my prediction after actually seeing them play a game that counts.
(11-01-2017 02:24 PM)jumpshooter Wrote: [ -> ] (11-01-2017 02:10 PM)Monarchblue Wrote: [ -> ] (11-01-2017 01:36 PM)Cyniclone Wrote: [ -> ]I'm confused about why some people seem to think losing to Towson is some sort of scarlet-letter moment. They could end up winning the CAA, and while I think conference RPI is a dodgy way to determine the quality of a conference or the difficulty in winning it, the CAA has been consistently higher in that metric than CUSA. ODU has suffered far more embarrassing losses in the past few years just in conference play.
Put another way: If ODU wins, and they should certainly expect to win at home, then there's a distinct possibility that they'll have a top-100 win on their resume. Even if it's a program that lost 41 straight a few years ago.
Because pre-BT meltdown we were at a level that we should not have lost to even a "good" Towson team. I am not willing to accept a new normal and start making comparisons based on what we are now, rather than what we have been when we aligned our resources correctly.
Now you've raised a whole other point. Are you in the "we put too much into football" camp, should have stayed I-AA, and it's hurting MBB and WBB? If that's the case, the new "normal" is that unless some people drop a whole bunch of money committed to MBB, our resources in that sport and WBB aren't going to be the same as when BT was coach. You may know more about how we align our resources than I do; If you say you do, I'll give you that. I'm of the opinion they;re doing the best they can at the moment, and working hard to be better, more affluent.
I don't know what camp I am in with regards to the money, because it doesn't really make a lot of sense to me. We are a top mid major in terms of budget, yet seem to struggle more than others with similar budgets. I will say this, if we cannot afford to pay our coaches on par with other top G5/mid major programs, then we will not be one. At this point we are coming up woefully short in that department.
Well, you said "when we aligned our resources correctly." What did you mean by that? Clearly you think they now aren't aligned properly, else you wouldn't have brought it up.
(11-02-2017 07:52 AM)cmett003 Wrote: [ -> ] (11-02-2017 07:39 AM)EverRespect Wrote: [ -> ]Not that I'd be happy with it, but I predict 17-13 (11-7)... similar to last season. Our starting 5 look good, but no depth up front means we'll struggle in games where foul trouble is a factor, especially against bigger teams. OOC I think we lose 2/3 in Charleston, VCU, Richmond, Fairfield and either Towson or W&M.
JJs lowest win total was 18 coming off the worst season in history. You really think this team is worse than that? 
I don't think "worse" is the correct term. This team is more talented, but aside from the core 4, not very experienced. Down low, we are pretty similarly thin (Nik Biberaj would see significant minutes on this team as well).
I also think the top half of the conference is better than it has been since JJ started. Perhaps we could win 12 or 13 instead of 11.
I would also normally predict a Richmond win at home, but I can't remember the last time we beat them 2 years in a row. Perhaps VCU may suck and we could win that one, but it is on the road. Fairfield on the road is a total trap. 20+ wins is certainly possible, just tempering expectations. The difference between 17 and 20 wins is nothing but a handfull of FTs.
Our starters should be solid. Porter and Brandan need to be able to stay on the floor (fouls, conditioning & staying healthy). I think the biggest question, who of the freshmen will stand-out? One of the great things about college hoops, is watching the players develop. I think we'll be better than 4th this year.
(11-02-2017 08:16 AM)EverRespect Wrote: [ -> ] (11-02-2017 07:52 AM)cmett003 Wrote: [ -> ] (11-02-2017 07:39 AM)EverRespect Wrote: [ -> ]Not that I'd be happy with it, but I predict 17-13 (11-7)... similar to last season. Our starting 5 look good, but no depth up front means we'll struggle in games where foul trouble is a factor, especially against bigger teams. OOC I think we lose 2/3 in Charleston, VCU, Richmond, Fairfield and either Towson or W&M.
JJs lowest win total was 18 coming off the worst season in history. You really think this team is worse than that?
I don't think "worse" is the correct term. This team is more talented, but aside from the core 4, not very experienced. Down low, we are pretty similarly thin (Nik Biberaj would see significant minutes on this team as well).
I also think the top half of the conference is better than it has been since JJ started. Perhaps we could win 12 or 13 instead of 11.
I would also normally predict a Richmond win at home, but I can't remember the last time we beat them 2 years in a row. Perhaps VCU may suck and we could win that one, but it is on the road. Fairfield on the road is a total trap. 20+ wins is certainly possible, just tempering expectations. The difference between 17 and 20 wins is nothing but a handfull of FTs.
In that case, we're in deep #*$()#.
(11-02-2017 06:31 AM)ODU FrontRunner Wrote: [ -> ] (11-01-2017 11:57 PM)Fatalisk Wrote: [ -> ] (11-01-2017 11:17 PM)Razor Ramon Monarch Wrote: [ -> ]Also being "good" in the patriot league is a joke. Outside of Bucknell and a couple good years from Lehigh it's a nothing conference where Jones did nothing of significance.
Do you think JJ should have been fired already? How do you feel about last year's recruiting class and the commits from the 2018 class?
Based on this year's recruits and last year's recruits JJ deserves another 2 or 3 years to get us into the NCAAs.
You are joking right? We should give a coach 8 (EIGHT) YEARS to get to the NCAA tournament? Time is up. If these classes are as good as you think (4th in CUSA), then now is the perfect time to bring someone in who can coach them if JJ doesn't get it done now. NCAA or bust.
I swear this entire thing is playing out exactly the way that I feared it would from the day Wood hired him. JJ will do just enough to keep his job for a decade while slowly destroying any amount of cache that we once had.
(11-02-2017 08:19 AM)ODUBB35 Wrote: [ -> ] (11-02-2017 08:16 AM)EverRespect Wrote: [ -> ] (11-02-2017 07:52 AM)cmett003 Wrote: [ -> ] (11-02-2017 07:39 AM)EverRespect Wrote: [ -> ]Not that I'd be happy with it, but I predict 17-13 (11-7)... similar to last season. Our starting 5 look good, but no depth up front means we'll struggle in games where foul trouble is a factor, especially against bigger teams. OOC I think we lose 2/3 in Charleston, VCU, Richmond, Fairfield and either Towson or W&M.
JJs lowest win total was 18 coming off the worst season in history. You really think this team is worse than that?
I don't think "worse" is the correct term. This team is more talented, but aside from the core 4, not very experienced. Down low, we are pretty similarly thin (Nik Biberaj would see significant minutes on this team as well).
I also think the top half of the conference is better than it has been since JJ started. Perhaps we could win 12 or 13 instead of 11.
I would also normally predict a Richmond win at home, but I can't remember the last time we beat them 2 years in a row. Perhaps VCU may suck and we could win that one, but it is on the road. Fairfield on the road is a total trap. 20+ wins is certainly possible, just tempering expectations. The difference between 17 and 20 wins is nothing but a handfull of FTs.
In that case, we're in deep #*$()#.
I am not sure this is accurate. Different team, but Porter struggles a little at the line and so does Randy. Other than that, we are pretty good. Green, Caver, Brandan, BJ, Godwin, and Hueitt can really shoot free throws.
(11-02-2017 08:16 AM)EverRespect Wrote: [ -> ] (11-02-2017 07:52 AM)cmett003 Wrote: [ -> ] (11-02-2017 07:39 AM)EverRespect Wrote: [ -> ]Not that I'd be happy with it, but I predict 17-13 (11-7)... similar to last season. Our starting 5 look good, but no depth up front means we'll struggle in games where foul trouble is a factor, especially against bigger teams. OOC I think we lose 2/3 in Charleston, VCU, Richmond, Fairfield and either Towson or W&M.
JJs lowest win total was 18 coming off the worst season in history. You really think this team is worse than that?
I don't think "worse" is the correct term. This team is more talented, but aside from the core 4, not very experienced. Down low, we are pretty similarly thin (Nik Biberaj would see significant minutes on this team as well).
I also think the top half of the conference is better than it has been since JJ started. Perhaps we could win 12 or 13 instead of 11.
I would also normally predict a Richmond win at home, but I can't remember the last time we beat them 2 years in a row. Perhaps VCU may suck and we could win that one, but it is on the road. Fairfield on the road is a total trap. 20+ wins is certainly possible, just tempering expectations. The difference between 17 and 20 wins is nothing but a handfull of FTs.
It is ok to have low expectations for this team. I completely understand your thought process. However, if Brandan and Trey stay healthy, this is going to be a really good year.
[quote='jumpshooter' pid='14737265' dateline='1509628115']
Well, you said "when we aligned our resources correctly." What did you mean by that? Clearly you think they now aren't aligned properly, else you wouldn't have brought it up.
[/quote
For starters it meant spending what would be considered a reasonable amount for a program of our stature on a coach. And don't tell me they couldn't find the money to pay more than $450k, when it has been stated multiple times that they were going to pay Tommy Amaker a Million. It also means spending the money to find, and travel to, opponents that will help to raise our stature. If that means cutting sports or whatever they need to do to not fund basketball like a low mid major, then that is what they need to do, but treating our program like it is not a top priority is unacceptable. Also, football IS a bad idea if we are not able to fund it properly either. We are paying our coaches enough to make us TENTH in CUSA. If that is indeed all we can afford, we have serious financial problems in our athletic department.
(11-02-2017 08:32 AM)Monarchblue Wrote: [ -> ][quote='jumpshooter' pid='14737265' dateline='1509628115']
Well, you said "when we aligned our resources correctly." What did you mean by that? Clearly you think they now aren't aligned properly, else you wouldn't have brought it up.
[/quote
. We are paying our coaches enough to make us TENTH in CUSA. If that is indeed all we can afford, we have serious financial problems in our athletic department.
And doing so with one of the highest athletic budgets in the conference. That brings up the question what is all the money being spent on? How how do other schools do more with less? The Ted should be close to if not completely paid for as well as the Bud and the JJarrett building. The practice facility is paid for. We don't spend much on marketing the programs or branding the facilities. We don't pay our coaches market rate. We aren't paying recruits under the table. Is it non-revenue sports? Administrative salaries?
(11-02-2017 08:28 AM)757ODU Wrote: [ -> ] (11-02-2017 08:16 AM)EverRespect Wrote: [ -> ] (11-02-2017 07:52 AM)cmett003 Wrote: [ -> ] (11-02-2017 07:39 AM)EverRespect Wrote: [ -> ]Not that I'd be happy with it, but I predict 17-13 (11-7)... similar to last season. Our starting 5 look good, but no depth up front means we'll struggle in games where foul trouble is a factor, especially against bigger teams. OOC I think we lose 2/3 in Charleston, VCU, Richmond, Fairfield and either Towson or W&M.
JJs lowest win total was 18 coming off the worst season in history. You really think this team is worse than that?
I don't think "worse" is the correct term. This team is more talented, but aside from the core 4, not very experienced. Down low, we are pretty similarly thin (Nik Biberaj would see significant minutes on this team as well).
I also think the top half of the conference is better than it has been since JJ started. Perhaps we could win 12 or 13 instead of 11.
I would also normally predict a Richmond win at home, but I can't remember the last time we beat them 2 years in a row. Perhaps VCU may suck and we could win that one, but it is on the road. Fairfield on the road is a total trap. 20+ wins is certainly possible, just tempering expectations. The difference between 17 and 20 wins is nothing but a handfull of FTs.
It is ok to have low expectations for this team. I completely understand your thought process. However, if Brandan and Trey stay healthy, this is going to be a really good year.
As I said, I may alter my predictions for the better after the Towson game. I like what I am hearing from you, but would like to see them in a real game that counts against a decent team and in person before I start getting my hopes up too high.
(11-02-2017 08:39 AM)monarx Wrote: [ -> ] (11-02-2017 08:32 AM)Monarchblue Wrote: [ -> ][quote='jumpshooter' pid='14737265' dateline='1509628115']
Well, you said "when we aligned our resources correctly." What did you mean by that? Clearly you think they now aren't aligned properly, else you wouldn't have brought it up.
[/quote
. We are paying our coaches enough to make us TENTH in CUSA. If that is indeed all we can afford, we have serious financial problems in our athletic department.
And doing so with one of the highest athletic budgets in the conference. That brings up the question what is all the money being spent on? How how do other schools do more with less? The Ted should be close to if not completely paid for as well as the Bud and the JJarrett building. The practice facility is paid for. We don't spend much on marketing the programs or branding the facilities. We don't pay our coaches market rate. We aren't paying recruits under the table. Is it non-revenue sports? Administrative salaries?
YES. I have raised all these questions before. It just doesn't make sense to me. We seem to be sinking money into something that other schools aren't and it needs to be addressed, or we are going to struggle to compete.
(11-02-2017 08:32 AM)Monarchblue Wrote: [ -> ][quote='jumpshooter' pid='14737265' dateline='1509628115']
Well, you said "when we aligned our resources correctly." What did you mean by that? Clearly you think they now aren't aligned properly, else you wouldn't have brought it up.
[/quote
For starters it meant spending what would be considered a reasonable amount for a program of our stature on a coach. And don't tell me they couldn't find the money to pay more than $450k, when it has been stated multiple times that they were going to pay Tommy Amaker a Million. It also means spending the money to find, and travel to, opponents that will help to raise our stature. If that means cutting sports or whatever they need to do to not fund basketball like a low mid major, then that is what they need to do, but treating our program like it is not a top priority is unacceptable. Also, football IS a bad idea if we are not able to fund it properly either. We are paying our coaches enough to make us TENTH in CUSA. If that is indeed all we can afford, we have serious financial problems in our athletic department.
I think the travel budget with the new conference was a huge hit. If what everyone says is true, football is paying for itself. Basketball expenditures are actually up, even paying JJ half of what we were paying BT. With expenditures up overall, it doesn't make sense. It has to be the travel.
(11-02-2017 07:58 AM)cmett003 Wrote: [ -> ] (11-02-2017 07:54 AM)Mr.BigBlue Wrote: [ -> ] (11-02-2017 07:36 AM)ODU AGGIE Wrote: [ -> ]OK. For all you round ball guys -- just how good do you think the Monarchs will be this year? As a guy not all that close to the program, I am getting a little excited just reading the stuff you guys are putting up here. So how many wins do you see for the regular season? 22? 24? -- more than that? It's starting to sound to me like this could well be a 23-24 win season. Yes? No?
I think we could be very good this year (+24 wins) provided a couple of things happen:
1-Porter and B.Stith have to stay out of foul trouble
2-We have to have a serviceable backup PG.
3-If we avg +63 pts/game by getting easy baskets in transition or on the secondary break that should be enough to win most games.
4-We will need to have a couple of players (Carver, Green, Haynes, Hueitt, Godwin) set up offensively.
5-Stay healthy
The big question will be.... if we have over 24 wins will that be enough to get us to the NCAAs? I still think we must win the CUSA Tournament because our RPI will likely not be very good based on our schedule.
Staying healthy should be higher on the list
I didn't put this in priority order.
(11-02-2017 08:39 AM)monarx Wrote: [ -> ] (11-02-2017 08:32 AM)Monarchblue Wrote: [ -> ][quote='jumpshooter' pid='14737265' dateline='1509628115']
Well, you said "when we aligned our resources correctly." What did you mean by that? Clearly you think they now aren't aligned properly, else you wouldn't have brought it up.
[/quote
. We are paying our coaches enough to make us TENTH in CUSA. If that is indeed all we can afford, we have serious financial problems in our athletic department.
And doing so with one of the highest athletic budgets in the conference. That brings up the question what is all the money being spent on? How how do other schools do more with less? The Ted should be close to if not completely paid for as well as the Bud and the JJarrett building. The practice facility is paid for. We don't spend much on marketing the programs or branding the facilities. We don't pay our coaches market rate. We aren't paying recruits under the table. Is it non-revenue sports? Administrative salaries?
How much does it cost to fly a football team to Texas, Florida, Kentucky, Tennessee, Mississippi, and Louisiana? 80+ players and all the coaches and trainers? Then you have to do the same for every other sport. Those trips probably add up to several high end football and basketball coach salaries. Didn't have to take many of those trips within the CAA. To put it in perspective, Northeastern and Hofstra were about the same distance from Norfolk as Marshall.
(11-02-2017 08:18 AM)DaBigBlue Wrote: [ -> ]Our starters should be solid. Porter and Brandan need to be able to stay on the floor (fouls, conditioning & staying healthy). I think the biggest question, who of the freshmen will stand-out? One of the great things about college hoops, is watching the players develop. I think we'll be better than 4th this year.
They are both FRESHMAN....neither will standout. I suspect one if not both will be to a redshirt(s). They need it from a variety of perspectives. When you see the results of a redshirt year by Green you have to seriously consider it.