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looks like SDSU with NIU and Boise still on the schedule can make a strong P6 statement for the MWC

(09-17-2017 01:24 AM)TodgeRodge Wrote: [ -> ]looks like SDSU with NIU and Boise still on the schedule can make a strong P6 statement for the MWC

On the flip side, the conference also took their 2nd FCS loss of the season (Nevada 28, Idaho State 30 in week 3 after UNLV 40, Howard 43 in week 1).

USF has a head start in the perception battle.

Will they survive in AAC play though?

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USF, Northern Illinois, Boise State, San Diego State and Houston all could be battling for the access bowl at the year's end. I could throw Toledo in this as well.

or just look at the current RPI rankings.

1 Pacific-12
2 Southeastern
3 Big Ten
4 Atlantic Coast
5 Big 12
6 American Athletic
------------------------------------------- Power 6 Line------------------------
7 Mid-American
8 Mountain West
9 Independents
10 Conference USA
11 Sun Belt

(09-17-2017 10:48 AM)KNIGHTTIME Wrote: [ -> ]or just look at the current RPI rankings.

1 Pacific-12
2 Southeastern
3 Big Ten
4 Atlantic Coast
5 Big 12
6 American Athletic
------------------------------------------- Power 6 Line------------------------
7 Mid-American
8 Mountain West
9 Independents
10 Conference USA
11 Sun Belt

RPI has no credibility in football, and anyway, I checked it out, and the AAC's RPI is much closer to the MAC than to the Big 12, so any line would be where we know it is: A P5/G5 line.

(09-17-2017 09:26 AM)Kittonhead Wrote: [ -> ]USF has a head start in the perception battle.

Will they survive in AAC play though?

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USF strength of schedule will kill them much like Marshall's did in year 1 of the CFP. I think Memphis is the likely AAC contender.

The MW has one undefeated team left through 3 weeks, the AAC has 5 (which is more than the rest of the G5 combined).

(09-17-2017 10:48 AM)KNIGHTTIME Wrote: [ -> ]or just look at the current RPI rankings.

1 Pacific-12
2 Southeastern
3 Big Ten
4 Atlantic Coast
5 Big 12
6 American Athletic
------------------------------------------- Power 6 Line------------------------
7 Mid-American
8 Mountain West
9 Independents
10 Conference USA
11 Sun Belt

For games through 9/16

Conf: SR / RPI
SEC: 80.24 / 28.87
Pac-12: 78.38 / 29.25
Big Ten: 77.93 / 28.51
ACC: 77.81 / 28.06
Big 12: 77.44 / 26.75
AAC: 67.78 / 23.04
MWC: 63.02 / 19.75
MAC: 60.01 / 19.09
C-USA: 56.96 / 18.49
Sun Belt: 55.74 / 16.48

P5-AAC: 9.67 / 3.71
AAC-MWC: 4.76 / 3.29

SR from here: https://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/
RPI from here: http://realtimerpi.com/college_football/ncaaf_conf.html

The P5-AAC gap is much greater than the AAC-MWC gap as measured by SR, but is still greater under RPI.

(09-17-2017 12:26 PM)shizzle787 Wrote: [ -> ]The MW has one undefeated team left through 3 weeks, the AAC has 5 (which is more than the rest of the G5 combined).

Who have they played? I used to like the AAC but some on this board are so obnoxious about the P6 crap, I find myself cheering against the AAC in every OOC game.


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(09-17-2017 02:29 PM)Jjoey52 Wrote: [ -> ]Who have they played? I used to like the AAC but some on this board are so obnoxious about the P6 crap, I find myself cheering against the AAC in every OOC game.
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Here is a breakdown of the conference records so far:

MWC: 16-20 overall
Against P5 conferences 3-14
- ACC 0-1
- B12 0-1
- B10 0-4
- PAC12 3-6
- SEC 0-2
Against G5 conferences/Indys (not ND) 4-4
- AAC 0-1
- IND 1-0
- MAC 0-1
- MWC 1-1
- Sun Belt 2-1
Against FCS teams 9-2

American: 19-11 (6 games cancelled)
Against P5 conferences (w/ND) 3-8
- ACC 0-2
- B12 0-4
- B10 1-1
- PAC12 2-0
- Notre Dame 0-1
Against G5 conferences/Indys 10-2
- AAC 1-1
- CUSA 4-0
- IND 1-0
- MAC 1-1
- MWC 1-0
- Sun Belt 2-0
Against FCS teams 6-1

The American has more wins, but 6 fewer games against P5 teams. Interestingly both conferences each have 3 wins over P5 conference teams--5 of the 6 wins are against the Pac12.

(09-17-2017 12:19 PM)msm96wolf Wrote: [ -> ]

(09-17-2017 09:26 AM)Kittonhead Wrote: [ -> ]USF has a head start in the perception battle.

Will they survive in AAC play though?

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USF strength of schedule will kill them much like Marshall's did in year 1 of the CFP. I think Memphis is the likely AAC contender.

Marshall did not play a single P5 school in 2014. 3 mediocre/poor MAC and 1 FCS in the OOC schedule. And CUSA was not a great conference that year. Best regular season win was against 7-5 Rice - and lost to 7-5 WKU. Every opponent before the mid-November Rice game was 6-6 or worse. Beat 8-4 LA Tech in the CUSA championship game.

USF has beaten Illinois and will play Houston and likely a decent team in the AAC championship game (Memphis?). Much better *possible* resume than 2014 Marshall.

I see SDSU, Boise and Toledo as the only non-conference G5 teams that could keep an undefeated USF out of the G5 bid.

Toledo will have to beat Miami this week and be the undefeated MAC champion.

SDSU may be able to absorb one loss, with two wins over PAC opponents and Boise, NIU, and Air Force on the schedule.

Boise has to be perfect the rest of the way, but their OT loss to Washington St. will actually help them if the Broncos beat Virginia and SDSU and win the MWC title.

1 Pacific-12
2 Southeastern
3 Big Ten
4 Atlantic Coast
5 Big 12
6 American Athletic
7 Mid-American
------------------------------------------- Power 7 Line------------------------
8 Mountain West
9 Independents
10 Conference USA
11 Sun Belt

(09-18-2017 11:08 AM)Lord Stanley Wrote: [ -> ]1 Pacific-12
2 Southeastern
3 Big Ten
4 Atlantic Coast
5 Big 12
6 American Athletic
7 Mid-American
------------------------------------------- Power 7 Line------------------------
8 Mountain West
9 Independents
10 Conference USA
11 Sun Belt

1 Pacific-12
2 Southeastern
3 Big Ten
4 Atlantic Coast
5 Big 12
6 American Athletic
7 Mid-American
8 Mountain West
9 Independents
10 Conference USA
11 Sun Belt
------------------------------------------- Power Everyone Line------------------------

There. Now no one feels left out. Except the FCS. And DII and DIII.

(09-18-2017 11:08 AM)Lord Stanley Wrote: [ -> ]1 Pacific-12
2 Southeastern
3 Big Ten
4 Atlantic Coast
5 Big 12
-------------------
6. MWC
7. AAC
8. Independents
9. Conference USA
10. Sun Belt
11. MAC

FIFY, when a G5 makes the same money as a P5 then you can start mingling them in.



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(09-18-2017 07:25 PM)Jjoey52 Wrote: [ -> ]

(09-18-2017 11:08 AM)Lord Stanley Wrote: [ -> ]1 Pacific-12
2 Southeastern
3 Big Ten
4 Atlantic Coast
5 Big 12
-------------------
6. MWC
7. AAC
8. Independents
9. Conference USA
10. Sun Belt
11. MAC

FIFY, when a G5 makes the same money as a P5 then you can start mingling them in.



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There is no metric at all that puts the MWC ahead of the AAC, but nice of you to stop by.

(09-18-2017 07:25 PM)Jjoey52 Wrote: [ -> ]FIFY, when a G5 makes the same money as a P5 then you can start mingling them in.

I can draw arbitrary lines anywhere I want, just like the AAC did.

That Huskie loss in the home opener to BC is unfortunately going to bite NIU in the rear. Wins over BC & Nebraska would put NIU & SD ST in a class by themselves. The 9/30 Huskie Aztec matchup in San Diego should be a great game and have alot to say about which G5 gets the Big $ bowl bid. Huskies must win that game to have a chance.

Aztecs have their toughest conference road game on 9/23 at AFA. If they win in Colorado and at home vs NIU they have clear sailing to an undefeated season as they have Boise at home and a weak conference road schedule with UNLV Hawaii & SJST.

2 wins over 12 PAC teams plus NIU & Boise at home would seal it up for them.

MAC is 18-17 overall out of conference so far with P5 wins over Kansas (2), Rutgers & Nebraska.

MWC played tougher P5 teams than AAC did.