Lets stick to rational logic guys. Yes, the media rights landscape is changing rapidly. Yes, football is still the big money maker. That said, WSU does add value. Football ratings have been good. On the field product has been solid.
Where does that leave us moving forward?
What can we do to maximize our value?
Should we add anyone else?
Can we add anyone else right now that will actually add substantial value?
The Big East makes $5 million per school without football. Our Basketball product will prove to be just as valuable plus we have an improving football product. Yes, ESPN will try to low ball us but if we shop around, we should get a substantial raise as long as Aresco can show some negotiating ability. I have confidence in him.
We might have to go longer term to get more dollars. Have no idea but my projection is 5 million per over 10 years
(04-17-2017 11:30 PM)BullsFanInTX Wrote: [ -> ]We might have to go longer term to get more dollars. Have no idea but my projection is 5 million per over 10 years
This was my thought, but depends on the number of marquee matchups and UCONN and Memphis returning to expectations.
Cord cutting and over paying conferences isn't AAC's fault.
If the American makes less than $$8 million each per season on its next tv deal I will consider it a failure.
Ridiculous to speculate. There is still another couple years of data.
My guess is about $3.5 million. Fox overpaid for the big east because at the time they needed content for a new sports channel. Now fox is pretty set with content and cbs and nbc are cheap.
Relatively speaking, we are worth at least $10 million per school. I am sure we won't get that though. $5-$7 million is my guess.
(04-18-2017 05:51 AM)robertfoshizzle Wrote: [ -> ]Relatively speaking, we are worth at least $10 million per school. I am sure we won't get that though. $5-$7 million is my guess.
How do you come up with that number? We are a good lead in material but rarely ever espn prime time material. We have the ability to get multiple teams in the top 25 though and ABC afternoon coverage. That is worth something along with Navy's value.
I'm guessing guaranteed equal exposure and $3.5 million. We still have a few teams that offer almost zero to the tv deal.
(04-17-2017 11:30 PM)BullsFanInTX Wrote: [ -> ]We might have to go longer term to get more dollars. Have no idea but my projection is 5 million per over 10 years
I am in the same basic neighborhood. I voted 3 to 5 but think it is at the top end of that. for me a 4 to 6 would be a perfect vote.
(04-18-2017 01:05 AM)BigHouston Wrote: [ -> ]Cord cutting and over paying conferences isn't AAC's fault.
If the American makes less than $$8 million each per season on its next tv deal I will consider it a failure.
It has nothing to do with it being our fault, it is the reality we are living in.
(04-18-2017 01:05 AM)BigHouston Wrote: [ -> ]Cord cutting and over paying conferences isn't AAC's fault.
If the American makes less than $$8 million each per season on its next tv deal I will consider it a failure.
You're not being rational if you think that. "Fault" has ZERO to do with anything. Networks aren't in the charity business. They're in it to make as much money as possible. The market will decide what the AAC is worth.
I almost selected under $3-million....but am more optimistic that we will see some sort of bump to get us over the $3-million hump. I think $3.5 /team is the max we will see.
ESPN is in downsizing staff and trying to cut expenses outside their main assets of pro sports and expensive P5 conferences the overpaid to block FOX's growth. I don't see them bidding against themselves for AAC rights. From the AAC side we need FOX or NBC to significantly overpay for our rights to justify leaving the dominant ESPN college football ecosystem.
I would love to see an NBC exclusive deal.
(04-18-2017 07:52 AM)KNIGHTTIME Wrote: [ -> ] (04-18-2017 05:51 AM)robertfoshizzle Wrote: [ -> ]Relatively speaking, we are worth at least $10 million per school. I am sure we won't get that though. $5-$7 million is my guess.
How do you come up with that number? We are a good lead in material but rarely ever espn prime time material. We have the ability to get multiple teams in the top 25 though and ABC afternoon coverage. That is worth something along with Navy's value.
I'm guessing guaranteed equal exposure and $3.5 million. We still have a few teams that offer almost zero to the tv deal.
If you look at how our ratings compare to the other conferences and then look at how much they make, $10 million is actually a bit low. But since we're making $2 million now, there's no way we get 5x as much. I think 4-6 is likely.
I notice 3.5 million a team is a popular guess. Not sure we survive if that's the offer we receive. Keep in mind we have been recieving an extra payout from the realignment fund made up of exit fees and left behind NCAA credits. That realignment fund has been paying out an additional 3 million or so to most of the new AAC memebers giving us an effective TV payout of about 5 million. The legacy Big East schools get even a larger pay out from that fund, In fact, UConn, Cincy, and USF get a realignment fund supplement large enough that it's like having a 9-10 million dollar a year TV deal.
That realignment money will be exhausted by the end of the current tv deal. So, we really need a new media deal worth 5-6 million per team just to keep most AAC teams even with thier current effective media revenue level and we'd need 9-10 million a team for USF, UConn, and Cinci to remain about even with the current "effective" media payout. If it's just 3.5 million, we may see UConn leave.
If it's 2 million, like the current deal, we might be forced to reconsider if all the travel, the 11AM starts, and weeknight games are worth it. We may conclude it's better to concentrate on organic income. Selling tickets and raising donations while cutting travel costs may be more important. Viewed through that prism, we may decide a more regional conference is better. That's the route I think CUSA and the Sunbelt are likely to eventually take.
If the deal is 2 million or less, we have two options. Reorganize into smaller, tighter, more geography based conferences that would feature lower travel costs and more traveling fans. The TV deals would be smaller, but we'd start games when we want---allowing each team to pick the time and dates that maximize the fan experience for ticket buyers. That would mean reorganizing with a mix of AAC, CUSA, and Sunbelt schools into smaller regional conferences.
The other option, would be to expand to the AAC to 16 to 18 schools----creating tighter 8 or 9 team divisions. Conference play would stick strictly to a divisional schedule with crossover games largely limited to just championship games. That would cut travel costs, and provide most of the benefits of a more regional conference---while keeping payout and opponent quality close to current levels. That would also keep tv income similar or better than current levels (minus the realignment money). It might be slight less as we would still want a deal that gave us the ability to largely decide dates and times that maximize the ticket income. It's would also mean revenue was cut more ways.
I've mentioned it before, but we need competitive bidders to drive the value of the next contract. ESPN has us by the short hairs otherwise. If the best NBC, Fox, Amazon or whomever puts on the table is a couple million, that is all in essence that the 4 letter network will put up as well.
We can talk about how much this conference deserves until we are blue in the face, but to take a quote from the Clint Eastwood movie Unforgiven, "Deserves got nothin' to do with it".
(04-18-2017 08:11 AM)Hood-rich Wrote: [ -> ] (04-18-2017 01:05 AM)BigHouston Wrote: [ -> ]Cord cutting and over paying conferences isn't AAC's fault.
If the American makes less than $$8 million each per season on its next tv deal I will consider it a failure.
You're not being rational if you think that. "Fault" has ZERO to do with anything. Networks aren't in the charity business. They're in it to make as much money as possible. The market will decide what the AAC is worth.
My point or blame if you would is towards TV networks realizing or except the mistakes they continue to make, overpaying lazy products vs the real true worth.
I mean, how on earth a team in a crappy zero market town like Lubbock for example earn more than almost the entire AAC with markets like Philadelphia Houston Dallas Memphis Orlando etc., is beyond me
I expect renegotiation to happen in 2018. I expect next year ESPN will offer us something like adding 4 years to the deal (6 years total) for 160 million total or roughly 2.22 million per team, per year...we're not going to get much more...we won't get a long term deal as ESPN knows it will all blow up in 2024 when the Big XII deal ends.
and we'll gladly take it.
I have no idea as to what happens after that.
Millions? Is a non-football share more than like 1% of that? Cuz that is a serious upgrade.