NCAA tournament units earned by WSU while in the MVC will stay with the MVC. However, looking at the units earned by current conference members, is one measure of the relative change in the strength of the conference.
The AAC jumps from 34 earned over the past 6 years by current members, to 50. This is clearly ahead of the remaining high mid majors (A10 has 39, MWC 22, WCC 28), and closer to the weaker majors (SEC 67, PAC 12 64).
The MVC drops from being a high mid major at 20, to a likely single bid conference at 4 (which would actually be at least 8 with its autobid).
UNI was just in the dance two years ago, and won a game, and IL St possibly could've made it this year.
I think the MVC can still fight for an at-large, without WSU.
(04-07-2017 12:00 PM)MplsBison Wrote: [ -> ]UNI was just in the dance two years ago, and won a game, and IL St possibly could've made it this year.
I think the MVC can still fight for an at-large, without WSU.
going to be a real battle for that. I mean, last 10 years, the conference has gotten 0 at large bids non Creighton or Wichita.
Now if only we can convince the Mountain West to add Gonzaga (and for Gonzaga to accept)
(04-07-2017 12:14 PM)Phlipper33 Wrote: [ -> ]Now if only we can convince the Mountain West to add Gonzaga (and for Gonzaga to accept)
that's going to be really difficult I feel. The MWC is right now as low as it's ever been I think. 4 of the 5 worst years in KP history for the MWC(going back to 2002) have been the last 4 years.
Also Gonzaga has earned now
2017 5
2016 3
2015 4
2014 2
2013 2
2012 2
units
so 2018 the WCC will get off of Gonzaga 18 units.
2019 16
2020 14
2021 12
2022 8
2023 5
so they have 73 units built up now over the next 6 years. That's conservatively 20 million dollars. And no reason to think that the numbers won't be higher when they are done.
(04-07-2017 12:13 PM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ]last 10 years, the conference has gotten 0 at large bids non Creighton or Wichita.
But my point is the "step up" effect. When Creighton was in the conference, how dominant was WSU?? Then they left ... all of a sudden WSU is a world beater.
If you follow me, then perhaps you can understand why I think that, for example, maybe now is IL St's turn to "step up".
(04-07-2017 12:47 PM)MplsBison Wrote: [ -> ] (04-07-2017 12:13 PM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ]last 10 years, the conference has gotten 0 at large bids non Creighton or Wichita.
But my point is the "step up" effect. When Creighton was in the conference, how dominant was WSU?? Then they left ... all of a sudden WSU is a world beater.
If you follow me, then perhaps you can understand why I think that, for example, maybe now is IL St's turn to "step up".
That's not exactly how that played out. Wichita and Creighton went toe to toe prior to CU leaving. When they left, nobody really stepped up.
They can maybe on occasion get an at-large if the conference wakes up and figures out how to compete again. But more often than not, it's not going to happen.
(04-07-2017 12:47 PM)MplsBison Wrote: [ -> ] (04-07-2017 12:13 PM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ]last 10 years, the conference has gotten 0 at large bids non Creighton or Wichita.
But my point is the "step up" effect. When Creighton was in the conference, how dominant was WSU?? Then they left ... all of a sudden WSU is a world beater.
If you follow me, then perhaps you can understand why I think that, for example, maybe now is IL St's turn to "step up".
2010-11 First place Missouri State. Wichita State one game back, Creighton 5 games back. One bid Indiana State
2011-12 First place Wichita State, Creighton 2 games back (rest of the league 7 or more back). Creighton auto bid, Wichita State at-large
2012-13 First place Creighton. Wichita State one game game back, UNI 2 back. Creighton auto bid, Wichita State at-large (Final Four).
2013-14 Wichita State first place by six games. Auto bid
2014-15. Wichita State first. UNI one game back. Everyone else 6 or more back. UNI auto bid. Wichita State at-large
2015-16 Wichita State first. Evansville and Ill St 4 games back. UNI auto bid. Wichita State at-large
2016-17 Wichita State and Illinois State tied for first everyone else 8 or more back.
Over that span Wichita State is 110-16 in Valley regular season play with only four of those losses coming since Creighton left.
(04-07-2017 12:00 PM)MplsBison Wrote: [ -> ]UNI was just in the dance two years ago, and won a game, and IL St possibly could've made it this year.
I think the MVC can still fight for an at-large, without WSU.
Two schools would have to have WSU type seasons for it to happen. That would mean a minimum of two top 50 wins (OOC) and an RPI below 30. And, one of the two would need to win the conference tournament.
Everyone not named UNI will need to really up their OOC scheduling to get there because once conference play begins the RPI begins falling. It could happen, but it is going to be rare.
But my point ... how many losses have Creighton, WSU, etc. put on schools like UNI, MO St, IL St, Bradley??
Those programs all have really nice arenas, and can fill them. And willing to spend $$$ for a good coach.
It's tough when you can't get out from under a perpetual shadow. Then the shadow lifts, and suddenly you rise up.
It's just a hypothesis ... but the foundation is there (facilities, money ... then get a coach ... then get players ... start cycling that)
the problem though is look at the other 9 teams and their OOC RPI- what they enter conference play with....
They had 2 teams in the top 100 this year. 1 was Wichita at 98. The other was Evansville at 81. Illinois St was 101, Loyola 118, No Iowa 148, S Illinois 150, Indiana St 165, Missouri St 206, Bradley 239, Drake 334. That's not conducive to get a lot of bids. By comparison the A10 had 5 teams in the top 100(3 top 60), and then 5 more in the 101-155 range.
(04-07-2017 01:16 PM)MplsBison Wrote: [ -> ]But my point ... how many losses have Creighton, WSU, etc. put on schools like UNI, MO St, IL St, Bradley??
Those programs all have really nice arenas, and can fill them. And willing to spend $$$ for a good coach.
It's tough when you can't get out from under a perpetual shadow. Then the shadow lifts, and suddenly you rise up.
It's just a hypothesis ... but the foundation is there (facilities, money ... then get a coach ... then get players ... start cycling that)
Losing to CU or WSU helped them far more then winning over a team with a 200+ RPI. You have to play better schools OOC. Even if you lose you are better off.
Take Illinois State this year. If I recall, their only top 100 games were against Wichita. OOC they played no one. Had they played a couple top 100, or better yet top 50 teams, even a loss would improve their situation.
I realize their head coach whined that he could not get anyone to play him. But that isn't true. He wants P6 schools to sign a home and home contract. That isn't going to happen. Go on the road, buck it up and play better, bigger, stronger schools or risk staying home from the NCAA.
(04-07-2017 01:09 PM)arkstfan Wrote: [ -> ] (04-07-2017 12:47 PM)MplsBison Wrote: [ -> ] (04-07-2017 12:13 PM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ]last 10 years, the conference has gotten 0 at large bids non Creighton or Wichita.
But my point is the "step up" effect. When Creighton was in the conference, how dominant was WSU?? Then they left ... all of a sudden WSU is a world beater.
If you follow me, then perhaps you can understand why I think that, for example, maybe now is IL St's turn to "step up".
2010-11 First place Missouri State. Wichita State one game back, Creighton 5 games back. One bid Indiana State
2011-12 First place Wichita State, Creighton 2 games back (rest of the league 7 or more back). Creighton auto bid, Wichita State at-large
2012-13 First place Creighton. Wichita State one game game back, UNI 2 back. Creighton auto bid, Wichita State at-large (Final Four).
2013-14 Wichita State first place by six games. Auto bid
2014-15. Wichita State first. UNI one game back. Everyone else 6 or more back. UNI auto bid. Wichita State at-large
2015-16 Wichita State first. Evansville and Ill St 4 games back. UNI auto bid. Wichita State at-large
2016-17 Wichita State and Illinois State tied for first everyone else 8 or more back.
Over that span Wichita State is 110-16 in Valley regular season play with only four of those losses coming since Creighton left.
So for the past seven seasons, only Wichita State ever got an at-large bid. Realignment has not been kind to the MVC.
(04-07-2017 01:09 PM)arkstfan Wrote: [ -> ] (04-07-2017 12:47 PM)MplsBison Wrote: [ -> ] (04-07-2017 12:13 PM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ]last 10 years, the conference has gotten 0 at large bids non Creighton or Wichita.
But my point is the "step up" effect. When Creighton was in the conference, how dominant was WSU?? Then they left ... all of a sudden WSU is a world beater.
If you follow me, then perhaps you can understand why I think that, for example, maybe now is IL St's turn to "step up".
2010-11 First place Missouri State. Wichita State one game back, Creighton 5 games back. One bid Indiana State
2011-12 First place Wichita State, Creighton 2 games back (rest of the league 7 or more back). Creighton auto bid, Wichita State at-large
2012-13 First place Creighton. Wichita State one game game back, UNI 2 back. Creighton auto bid, Wichita State at-large (Final Four).
2013-14 Wichita State first place by six games. Auto bid
2014-15. Wichita State first. UNI one game back. Everyone else 6 or more back. UNI auto bid. Wichita State at-large
2015-16 Wichita State first. Evansville and Ill St 4 games back. UNI auto bid. Wichita State at-large
2016-17 Wichita State and Illinois State tied for first everyone else 8 or more back.
Over that span Wichita State is 110-16 in Valley regular season play with only four of those losses coming since Creighton left.
From 2000 to 2011, Missouri State and Wichita State had pretty close to identical records. It's crazy how one coaching hire can tank a program or rise it above.
(04-07-2017 01:34 PM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ]the problem though is look at the other 9 teams and their OOC RPI- what they enter conference play with....
They had 2 teams in the top 100 this year. 1 was Wichita at 98. The other was Evansville at 81. Illinois St was 101, Loyola 118, No Iowa 148, S Illinois 150, Indiana St 165, Missouri St 206, Bradley 239, Drake 334. That's not conducive to get a lot of bids. By comparison the A10 had 5 teams in the top 100(3 top 60), and then 5 more in the 101-155 range.
Are you talking about the RPI of the non-conference
opponents, or are you talking about the RPI of those teams themselves, when just considering the non-conf schedule??
In any case, I think that's just a simple matter of scheduling harder games (and winning). WSU leaving shouldn't hinder that.
(04-07-2017 02:43 PM)MplsBison Wrote: [ -> ] (04-07-2017 01:34 PM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ]the problem though is look at the other 9 teams and their OOC RPI- what they enter conference play with....
They had 2 teams in the top 100 this year. 1 was Wichita at 98. The other was Evansville at 81. Illinois St was 101, Loyola 118, No Iowa 148, S Illinois 150, Indiana St 165, Missouri St 206, Bradley 239, Drake 334. That's not conducive to get a lot of bids. By comparison the A10 had 5 teams in the top 100(3 top 60), and then 5 more in the 101-155 range.
Are you talking about the RPI of the non-conference opponents, or are you talking about the RPI of those teams themselves, when just considering the non-conf schedule??
In any case, I think that's just a simple matter of scheduling harder games (and winning). WSU leaving shouldn't hinder that.
You are right, it shouldn't hinder that but the past several years the only MVC school left who scheduled anyone OOC was UNI.
I could see MSU stepping up but they may be the only one. I think MSU sees the writing on the wall. They are the outlier now. They are a large school, have great facilities and are in really good recruiting region. If they can get their act together they get my vote for the next MVC departure. They are a geographical fit in the SBC. If they can get back to their old ways of winning, the money may be there to move up to FBS and get out of the MVC for good.
(04-07-2017 02:43 PM)MplsBison Wrote: [ -> ] (04-07-2017 01:34 PM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ]the problem though is look at the other 9 teams and their OOC RPI- what they enter conference play with....
They had 2 teams in the top 100 this year. 1 was Wichita at 98. The other was Evansville at 81. Illinois St was 101, Loyola 118, No Iowa 148, S Illinois 150, Indiana St 165, Missouri St 206, Bradley 239, Drake 334. That's not conducive to get a lot of bids. By comparison the A10 had 5 teams in the top 100(3 top 60), and then 5 more in the 101-155 range.
Are you talking about the RPI of the non-conference opponents, or are you talking about the RPI of those teams themselves, when just considering the non-conf schedule??
In any case, I think that's just a simple matter of scheduling harder games (and winning). WSU leaving shouldn't hinder that.
It's those teams OOC RPI. So Drake for instance was RPI #334 in OOC games this year.
the problem for the MVC is when you start conference play that bad, you can't get enough in conference play to matter. Especially given you see everyone 2x with no exceptions.
(04-07-2017 02:43 PM)MplsBison Wrote: [ -> ] (04-07-2017 01:34 PM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ]the problem though is look at the other 9 teams and their OOC RPI- what they enter conference play with....
They had 2 teams in the top 100 this year. 1 was Wichita at 98. The other was Evansville at 81. Illinois St was 101, Loyola 118, No Iowa 148, S Illinois 150, Indiana St 165, Missouri St 206, Bradley 239, Drake 334. That's not conducive to get a lot of bids. By comparison the A10 had 5 teams in the top 100(3 top 60), and then 5 more in the 101-155 range.
Are you talking about the RPI of the non-conference opponents, or are you talking about the RPI of those teams themselves, when just considering the non-conf schedule??
In any case, I think that's just a simple matter of scheduling harder games (and winning). WSU leaving shouldn't hinder that.
If it were that simple, why wouldn't they have already been doing that? Answer is, most of them just don't care enough.
(04-07-2017 12:13 PM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ] (04-07-2017 12:00 PM)MplsBison Wrote: [ -> ]UNI was just in the dance two years ago, and won a game, and IL St possibly could've made it this year.
I think the MVC can still fight for an at-large, without WSU.
going to be a real battle for that. I mean, last 10 years, the conference has gotten 0 at large bids non Creighton or Wichita.
The question is whether schools like Missouri State, Illinois State, Southern Illinois, Indiana St., Northern Iowa, Bradley and Drake return to form or stay down. Creighton and Wichita St. have not dominated the conference historically as they have in the past 10 years.
(04-07-2017 03:11 PM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ]It's those teams OOC RPI. So Drake for instance was RPI #334 in OOC games this year.
the problem for the MVC is when you start conference play that bad, you can't get enough in conference play to matter. Especially given you see everyone 2x with no exceptions.
Reason I asked was ... how can they all be that bad?? Even Wichita, which I thought was like this top 15 team?? How can it be almost 100 in non-conf RPI??
That would mean, I think, that its non-conf schedule must have been really poor. Because I don't think it was from losing games.