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I will start a thread here for any and all discussion of the NCAA tournament or even NIT etc. Lets start off with the bubble teams/fringe tournament teams.

There is a feel that this is going to be the year of the bubble for the very mediocre power conferences and the mids will be sent home. Unfortunately, I agree. Since the conferences realigned, it seems like the mids have fallen (mainly due to the fact all of the best and consistent ones were gobbled up to new conferences). This seems true again this year. The A10 is down and there really is not much substance from the mids this season. There are a few contenders though, should they fall during their conference tournaments

Illinois State- Big RPI numbers. Little substance. Ok SOS and ok non conference SOS. I really have not gotten a feel for if this team truly is good or not. I think the committee will send them to the NIT. The loss to Murray state (outside of the top 200) will likely be the dagger that kills this team. Since they are spiteful, they may even find a way to make them have an opening round road game. Glad the shockers won the MVC, though it likely pits them in an 8/9 game even though WSU realistically is as good as a 6 seed.

Middle Tennessee- This team screams of Drexel in 2011-2012. Good RPI numbers, ok SOS, great Non conference SOS, good enough wins (2-1 vs top 50, 4-1 vs top 100). However, I think the committee will look at 2 losses outside the top 150 and send them to the NIT should they not hold serve in the CUSA tournament. Sending this team to the NIT would be a travesty in my opinion

UT Arlington- Good RPI, Really good SOS, Very good non conference SOS. This is the type of team and schedule the committee claims they want to see from top tier mid majors. They are only 1-2 against the top 50 (tough loss @Arkansas) and another 1-1 against 51-100. Again though like Drexel in '11-'12 I think their bad conference will send them to the NIT due to the fact they have 3 losses to teams worse that rpi 150, even though all are in the top 200 (unlike MTSU's loss to UTEP). This is also a team I feel like should go dancing, but will head to the NIT should they not win the Sun Belt.

Nevada- Is the Mountain West considered mid major? Anyways, good RPI, Good SOS, not so great non conference SOS. 0-1 against the top 50 6-2 versus 51-100. 1 loss over rpi 150. I think this team is better than their numbers support, but they dont have enough big wins to overcome a deficient non conference SOS. If they dont win the mountain west, they look like NIT to me

Rhode Island- This will be an interesting team for selection sunday. Good RPI, Great SOS and fantastic non conference SOS. 2-4 vs the top 50 and 3-3 vs 51-100. 1 loss to a team just outside the top 100 (LaSalle) and 1 really really bad loss to Fordham (211). To me this is a better team to take than a .500 major conference team. They challenged themselves and won games. They lost a bunch of games, but really only have 1 bad loss. My gut says the committee will look at the Fordham loss and send them to the NIT despite having more than adequate wins, especially for a mid major. This is likely the fairest team to compare to the power conferences. I.e. a team with lots of chances and only a few wins.

WSU, UNCW, Gonzaga and St Mary's are all locks. Gonzaga has the ability to go deep, UNCW can certainly pull an upset but it will depend on matchup. St Mary's would also need the right matchup but I think they likely are going to get a higher seed and be a trendy team to get picked to be upset. WSU will have a winnable first game and likely be in the 8/9 game which means a 1 seed next. Not sure they have the ability to defeat any of the top seeds this season. Bad draw for them. 7/10 seed would be better for the shockers.
Would it be better the future mid major teams if Middle Tenn got snubbed? Drexel, Monmouth Middle Tenn getting snubbed may make them rethink who they let in or expand?
(03-08-2017 11:51 AM)Dragon For Life Wrote: [ -> ]Would it be better the future mid major teams if Middle Tenn got snubbed? Drexel, Monmouth Middle Tenn getting snubbed may make them rethink who they let in or expand?

Absolutely not. It would encourage snubbing the mids because that would mean the money would continue to fill the power conference's teams. That money is significant and allows teams to continue to level the playing field. They are not wanting to level the playing field.

I would argue the opposite actually. If MTSU or UT-Arlington or Illinois State or any combination of them make it over say Wake Forest, Syracuse, Cal, USC etc that would actually encourage them to expand to make sure more money keeps flowing to the power conferences disproportionately.
I also posted a blind resume thread on the main board for those who wish to take a gander
(03-08-2017 12:28 PM)dan10 Wrote: [ -> ]I also posted a blind resume thread on the main board for those who wish to take a gander

As I have watched a criminally small amount of college hoops this year, I look forward to looking at that being completely unbiased.
I may really follow the NIT this year. I've always given it glances but this may be the year to really pay attention. I agree with Dan, at least 4 of the 5 teams he mentioned will be there plus Charleston plus Monmouth plus another A10 team (prob. Richmond). It wont get them anywhere, be I'd love to these teams know off the barely eligible power conference teams. How about Middle Tennessee State vs. Charleston in the NIT final?
A lot of really fringe middling power conference teams continued to do what they have done all year...lose

Bubble will be very interesting since many of the middling power conference teams on the bubble have not done anything to help their case other than adding more losses to decent teams.

In my opinion a team like Syracuse getting in this year would be the ultimate middle finger to the mid majors and would reinforce the notion that major conference teams are truly independent and can make it without leaving home, without winning on the road, or without playing anyone OOC, while having bad RPI numbers and SOS and multiple bad losses. I.e. items where even 1 item would remove a mid major from discussion and they hit all of them.
(03-08-2017 02:09 PM)DrachenFire Wrote: [ -> ]As I have watched a criminally small amount of college hoops this year, I look forward to looking at that being completely unbiased.

I'm the same way. I can't watch enough college football...but I haven't been able to get interested in college basketball. As mentioned above...the good mid-major programs got gobbled up into bigger conferences. It was fun when the CAA and Missouri Valley Conference were stacked from top to bottom.

I've tried to latch onto a power conference team. Growing up I liked Duke. After I had to call public safety and they still charged me to park when I went to a Duke game...I tried rooting for UNC...who has gotten away with academic murder without any consequences. The college football teams I like...PSU and LSU...have awful basketball programs.

It's gotten so bad I rooted for Villanova last year. The Big East was supposed to be left for dead when Syracuse, Pitt, BC, Virginia Tech, UCONN, and WVU left. It hasn't turned out that way in basketball at least.

They're trying to figure out ways to drum up interest. Changing the rules for more offense isn't the answer. I would shrink the NCAA tournament rather than expand it. Regular season games don't mean anything anymore.
Well UT Arlington is done after falling in their semi final today. Nevada and MTSU play later one. Nevada at least got their best possible matchup for their final with Colorado State, where that loss at least isnt a bad loss, though they would be best to get their auto bid.
I feel bad for UNCW they got a tough bracket Duke and Nova
They need to deal with Virginia and perhaps the Gators first. Let's not get too crazy looking ahead. UNCW is fine at a 12 seed which is one of the best spots to be - it gives you a couple fringe top 25 teams in the first weekend.

Who to really feel bad for (aside from UT Arlington and Illinois St)?
St Mary's and VCU matched in a 7 - 10 game. Dayton and Wichita St matched in another 7 -10 game. Typical committee bias, pitting the mids against each other early to make sure they know each other out. They could have given those 10s games against South Carolina and Michigan in Indy and Greenville. Geographically, it still works.
Agreed pitting the mids against each other is just wrong. If it happens it happens, but when you can predict they will do it and in a year with so few mids, it makes it far too obvious.

Who were the first four out, I missed the selection show (Guessing from what I saw Syracuse, Iowa, Illinois State and who?)
By chance did they list the order they had those teams?
(03-12-2017 04:59 PM)Dragon For Life Wrote: [ -> ]I feel bad for UNCW they got a tough bracket Duke and Nova

If we end up getting a shot at Duke or Nova we'll be rioting in the streets. Wouldn't matter if we lost by 50 at that point.
My most interesting first round matchups:

UVA/UNCW- Classic battle between differing styles. My gut goes to UNCW since the NCAA is becoming much more favorable towards a faster pace. Winner most likely wins 2 games

Maryland/Xavier- two teams flailing at the wrong time with loads of talent to go far. Give me Xavier in a close one

St Marys/VCU- Great matchup between 2 of the best mid majors. I think this is an OT game waiting to happen. Give me St Marys though.

Iowa State/Nevada- ISU came on strong late. Both teams can move the ball and score. This is just a bad draw for a dangerous Nevada team. ISU has a history of tournament let downs, though

Creighton/URI- Before the injury for Creighton this would have been a blowout. Now, its a toss up. URI is playing better right now, so I will give them the slight edge.

Minnesota/MTSU- Big screw job by the committee for MTSU. high rpi and favorable numbers. 4-1 against the top 100 and 2-0 versus the top 50. They should have been no worse than a 10 seed and are better than several 8/9 seeded teams (Vandy, VT, MSU). Minnesota is hot right now but my edge still goes to MTSU who plays good defense and good offense. Minnesota relies on defense. Unfortunately this will be a trendy upset pick. I like either team to beat Butler.

Cincy/Wake- I think Wake wins their play in game and this one will be fun to watch. Another game between a slower paced team and faster paced team. Wake plays virtually no defense but can score lots of points. Cincy is balanced but prefers a methodical half court type of game. Cincy's defense is too good for Wake, but I think Wake will hit them in the mouth early and force Cincy to speed up, which only benefits Wake. So give me Wake Forest in a game that like gets close to 90 points for the winner.

Dayton/WSU- The other game between the top mid majors, something the committee loves to do. This one feels like an easy win for WSU but Dayton is no slouch either. I hope WSU is not looking for a revenge game against Kentucky or else Dayton will send them home. WSU should have been about a 7 seed and Dayton should have been a 6, borderline 5. Unfortunately someone has to go home and I give the slight edge to Dayton for being that team. WSU wins in a low scoring game.
2 games down, 2 tight games with ND edging out Princeton and UVA holding on against UNCW.
With the UNCW loss, the CAA Final Four gravy train comes to an end.

2017 - 15 units = ~$4.1 million
2018 - 8 units = ~$2.2 million
2019 - 7 units = ~$2.0 million
2020 - 6 units = ~$1.7 million
There is a lot of discussion that the tournament hasn't been very good. I disagree, many games have been highly competitive. It is interesting to me though they are complaining about "lack of upsets" when the committee clearly bracketed teams in a way to reduce any potential upsets. When you pit mids against mids and give other good mids bad matchups (UNCW vs UVA for instance), people should not be surprised. This year was one of the worst and most intentional seeding jobs, yet seems like nobody is calling the committee out for causing this "ho hum tournament". They are getting exactly what they wanted: Few upsets and all of the money going to the power conferences.
They really screwed the pooch ok Wisconsin being an 8 and Nova got hosed because of it
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