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The Atlantic Sun kicked things off last night with their quarterfinals. So conference tournaments are officially underway. Very exciting two weeks. March begins in about 9 hours.

Not many chances for bid stealers this season. The AAC (if UC or SMU doesn't win), the A10 (if Dayton or VCU doesn't win), the WAC (Gonzaga, St. Mary's), and maybe the MVC and CUSA (Wichita State and Middle Tennessee).

I know how much everyone loves kenpom. He does his log5 tournament projections for every conference.

http://kenpom.com/blog/

MTSU, UNCW, Illinois St., and UTA deserve to get in over the current major conf. bubble.

(02-28-2017 05:22 PM)dave416 Wrote: [ -> ]MTSU, UNCW, Illinois St., and UTA deserve to get in over the current major conf. bubble.

In the mid-major leagues it probably is something close to this

Tier 1 (Likely to recieve an at-large bid to could recieve an at large bid)
1. Wichita State
2. MTSU
3. Nevada

Tier 2 (Might receive an at-large bid to longshot to recieve an at-large bid)
4. Illinois State
5. UNCW
6. Valpo
7. UTA
8. Monmouth
9. Vermont

Everyone else has no shot at an-large bid.

High major at-large bids

Tier 1 ( Locks to very likely in)
1. Gonzaga
2. SMU
3. Cincinnati
4. St. Mary's
5. Dayton
6. VCU

Tier 2 ( The bubble to longshot bids)

7. Rhode Island
8. BYU
9. Houston
10. Boise State
11. UCF

Houston and BYU are essentially one big win away from moving onto the bubble and in. Houston has to win out which would include at win at Cincinnati or get to the finals of the conference tournament. BYU needs to beat St. Mary's to get to the finals of the conference tournament. Boise State needs a run to the finals but even that alone won't get job done if it leads to a third loss to Nevada, they did beat SMU earlier. UCF needs run to the finals which would include a win over SMU or Cincinnati, even then it that probably just moves onto the bubble.

The weakness in the bubble isn't from the mid-majors, it comes from the high major leagues outside of the power five. Traditional NCAA level programs like UConn, Memphis, Temple, SDSU, New Mexico, UNLV, and BYU are having down seasons. Only the A-10 as a whole is roughly where the usually are. The WCC's top two teams are up but BYU lost five times to teams not named Gonzaga and St. Mary's in WCC play.

I agree that most of those will not get in barring a conf. tourney win, just think they should. The process is broken IMO and committee typically does an awful job year in and out.

Might have UTA a couple of ticks up though - they have the @Texas and @St. Mary's wins to hang their hat on, and their league is a little stronger than Valpo's (who has three decent neutral/home wins).

This past weekend it was a little nauseating when during the West Virginia vs TCU 17-11 and 6-9 in conference game they announce that Lunardi says TCU is in with a win. They did lose but now at 17-12 and 6-10 they still are high on the bubble. They are in a tough league but sub .500 league teams being picked really is a question of fairness.

I'm not in the camp that you must go .500 in conference to make the tournament, but TCU is a great example of a very underserving team. What the hell have they done exactly?

They are 17-12 with 6 conference wins - Oklahoma (w/o Woodard), @Texas, Iowa St., @Kansas St., Texas, and Texas Tech. Yawn. They also played a weak non-conf with two true road games where their best win was home against Illinois St. So this is a team that has had 15 chances to score big wins, and they have won what, 3? Their best win all season is probably @Kansas St. I don't get it, some of these teams shouldn't even be talked about.

I think if the AAC started today I like our #2 seed as we avoid UCF, UCF and SMU until the final.


FIRST ROUND:
MEMPHIS #6
USF #11

TULSA #7
TULANE #10

TEMPLE #8
ECU #9



Second Round:
MEMPHIS #6
UH #3

TULSA #7
UC #2

TEMPLE #8
SMU #1

UCF #4
UCONN #5

THIRD ROUND:
UH #3
UC #2

SMU #1
UCF #4


FOURTH ROUND:
UC #2
SMU #1

(02-28-2017 07:14 PM)doss2 Wrote: [ -> ]I think if the AAC started today I like our #2 seed as we avoid UCF, UCF and SMU until the final.


FIRST ROUND:
MEMPHIS #6
USF #12

TULSA #7
TULANE #11

TEMPLE #8
ECU #10


Second Round:
MEMPHIS #6
UH #3

TULSA #7
UC #2

TEMPLE #8
SMU #1

UCF #4
UCONN #5

THIRD ROUND:
UH #3
UC #2

SMU #1
UCF #4


FOURTH ROUND:
UC #2
SMU #1

So we're going without a 9 seed and we've added a 12th team for the tournament? Intriguing.....

We're likely to play the winner of Memphis/ Tulsa (they're each almost certain to finish 9-9, and split during they year - not sure how tiebreaker works) v. Tulane in the second round.

(02-28-2017 07:48 PM)geef Wrote: [ -> ]

(02-28-2017 07:14 PM)doss2 Wrote: [ -> ]I think if the AAC started today I like our #2 seed as we avoid UCF, UCF and SMU until the final.


FIRST ROUND:
MEMPHIS #6
USF #12

TULSA #7
TULANE #11

TEMPLE #8
ECU #10


Second Round:
MEMPHIS #6
UH #3

TULSA #7
UC #2

TEMPLE #8
SMU #1

UCF #4
UCONN #5

THIRD ROUND:
UH #3
UC #2

SMU #1
UCF #4


FOURTH ROUND:
UC #2
SMU #1

So we're going without a 9 seed and we've added a 12th team for the tournament? Intriguing.....

Thanks numbers changed

I think how it currently stands is pretty ideal for UC.

(02-28-2017 08:12 PM)dave416 Wrote: [ -> ]I think how it currently stands is pretty ideal for UC.

IMHO the match ups are perfect.

(02-28-2017 08:54 PM)doss2 Wrote: [ -> ]

(02-28-2017 08:12 PM)dave416 Wrote: [ -> ]I think how it currently stands is pretty ideal for UC.

IMHO the match ups are perfect.

Ya, I think in terms of tough match-ups you are talking SMU, UCF, and Temple. I'm fine with Tulsa, Memphis, Houston, etc.

Headed down to Reno for the Big Sky tournament either Sunday or Tuesday depending on if the EWU women get a bye or not. The men already have one and look to have a real shot of winning the automatic bid. Jacob Wiley has scored 30+ four games in a row but the lack of a pg may cost the Eags in the end.

I'll have my eye on the American as the Bearcats will win the conference tournament. Can't wait!

Welcome back, Ash. Good to see you back on the board. Please show up more often.

(02-28-2017 11:29 PM)Ash_UCATS Wrote: [ -> ]Headed down to Reno for the Big Sky tournament either Sunday or Tuesday depending on if the EWU women get a bye or not. The men already have one and look to have a real shot of winning the automatic bid. Jacob Wiley has scored 30+ four games in a row but the lack of a pg may cost the Eags in the end.

I'll have my eye on the American as the Bearcats will win the conference tournament. Can't wait!

Wiley has been a monster and has completely owned that conference. Feel like using Bliznyuk at point-forward has worked really well, but teams that can put a lengthy athlete on him can be a problem (North Dakota) - but they still have a good shot. GL to the Eagles.

Thanks ctipton I have been lurking a lot for the most part. My wife actually told me the other day she misses Cincinnati...


Dave, surprised to see anyone else on the board knew anything about the Big Sky, haha. We had a Utah Jazz scout in the building Saturday which caught me by surprise. I just do not want to host the CBI. Bogdan will be back next year but losing Jake will hurt.

Valpo's Alec Peters out for the season, opens the door for NKU in the Horizon.

(03-01-2017 09:48 PM)BearcatnKY Wrote: [ -> ]Valpo's Alec Peters out for the season, opens the door for NKU in the Horizon.

Going to have to beat a pretty good Oakland team.

But that would be pretty cool if they could do it.

the two teams I fear in the AAC tourney are: SMU and UCF

everyone else, not so much