CSNbbs

Borrowed from Gilesfan on the CUSA Board:

Using Ken Pom numbers and national averages, I simulated the remainder of the season:

2/16:

UAB 83 Marshall 89
FAU 62 LT 77
FIU 64 USM 62
UTEP 66 North Texas 65
UTSA 65 Rice 78
MTSU 69 WKY 60

2/18

UTSA 63 North Texas 68
FAU 64 USM 61
MTSU 81 Marshall 76
Charlotte 62 ODU 71
FIU 62 LT 77
UTEP 66 Rice 77
UAB 70 Western 70

Game 3:

WKY 75 Charlotte 79
UTEP 63 FAU 65
UTSA 62 FIU 66
LT 76 North Texas 66
Marshall 70 ODU 76
Southern Miss 61 Rice 80

2/25:

USM 59 North Texas 67
Marshall 94 Charlotte 94
UTSA 62 FAU 66
UTEP 66 FIU 65
Western 55 ODU 65
LT 76 Rice 77
Middle 68 UAB 63

3/2:
Rice 91 Marshall 94
FIU 55 Middle 74
Charlotte 72 UTSA 72
FAU 65 UAB 74
North Texas 66 WKY 75
ODU 57 UTEP 55

3/4:
USM 55 LT 75
Charlotte 70 UTEP 74
ODU 58 UTSA 54
FAU 56 Middle 73
North Texas 78 Marshall 94
FIU 64 UAB 75
Rice 77 WKY 75


Based on those scores:

Middle 17-1, 27-4
LT 14-4, 22-9
ODU 13-5, 20-10
Rice 12-6, 22-9
Marshall 11-7, 18-13
UAB 10-8, 17-14
UTEP 9-9, 11-19
WKY 8-10, 14-17
Charlotte 7-11, 13-16
FAU 7-11, 11-18
UTSA 6-12, 11-20
FIU 5-13, 9-22
North Texas 3-15, 9-21
USM 4-14, 7-23

Obv, percentages are important to look at; for example, ODU is slight favorite in every game but, what are odds of winning 5 close games? So, applying a percentage chance of winning each game:

Middle 4.1-0.9
LT 4.1-0.9
ODU 3.8-1.2
Rice 4.3-1.7
Marshall 3.3-2.7
UAB 2.8-2.2
Charlotte 2.8-2.2
UTEP 2.5-3.5
WKY 2.4-3.6
FAU 2.2-3.8
UTSA 1.9-4.1
FIU 2.0-4.0
North Texas 2.3-3.7
USM 1.1-3.9


I will predict standings of:

Middle 16-2
LT 14-4
ODU 12-6
Rice 11-7
UAB 11-7
Marshall 10-8
UTEP 10-8
Charlotte 8-10
WKY 8-10
UTSA 8-10
FAU 6-12
USM 5-13
FIU 4-14
North Texas 3-15

Based on his prediction we'd win:

@WKU
FIU
FAU

And lose:

@Marshall
MTSU

We'd finish tied for 4th with Rice, but would get the 4 seed since we beat Rice head to head. Then we'd play the winner of Rice vs USM based on the predicted standings.

Predictions also had us winning the conference outright. So much for predictions.

At this point, I like the 6th seed position better than 5th in terms of the playoff bracket.

(02-14-2017 01:36 PM)UABslant Wrote: [ -> ]At this point, I like the 6th seed position better than 5th in terms of the playoff bracket.

Agreed. Anything to avoid MTSU for as long as possible, if we even make it that far.

It's called a prediction.