01-26-2017, 02:22 AM
Tossing this out there for everyone to discuss.
1. We've seen that ESPN is willing to create linear networks in order to gain leverage and better control over properties. We saw that with UT, but not with the Big 12 as a whole.
2. While the ACC is obviously a valuable property and desired by ESPN, is it possible that the Mothership knows that linear networks are on their way out in the long term? The SEC and Big Ten have widely desired products on a national scale that hedge against a change in the marketplace. If linear networks become unfeasible then it's easy for them to fall back on new technology to replace any lost income. This would be harder to accomplish with a league like the ACC due to its overall smaller fan bases being that it has numerous private schools and smaller publics in its roster.
3. While ESPN did use the ACC to house desired properties from the Big East and will likely use the SEC to house desired properties from the Big 12, is it possible we'll see a coming together under one roof of the major products of these leagues if the ACC Network proves not to be financially feasible into the next decade?
4. The failure of ESPN to secure the desired future of the SEC and ACC came when the ACC rejected a deal that would have secured UT, OU, and KU along with full membership from Notre Dame. There is no suitable alternative path to recreating the sort of stability or financial potential that move would have garnered.
5. While the markets that the ACC Network will represent are both populous and affluent, the odds of garnering rates comparable to the SECN or BTN are fairly low.
6. The ACC Grant of Rights has been secured through 2036. The primary issue here being that they have to have a GOR at all. While this agreement provides a great deal of security, it does not provide financial assurances that hedge against a change in the marketplace.
7. There still appears to be no mechanism in place to force Notre Dame to join fully despite the appeal of 16 team super-conferences from a practical and structural standpoint.
So what am I suggesting? Well, I'm not really suggesting anything. I'm just thinking out loud.
When I first started contemplating the idea of a SEC/Big 12 merger many years ago, one aspect of my theory is that the 24 team league would create enough weight in the marketplace to attract schools from the ACC...to crack the nut so to speak. Now, I don't believe at all that the SEC and Big 12 will merge, but in my varied musings on how the SEC would best raid the Big 12 I remembered my original notion and started thinking about the other market aspects.
So let's say for a minute that ESPN uses the SEC to house the following schools...Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas, and West Virginia. As I look at the current Big 12, these are the schools I think for one reason or the other are potentially valuable in the marketplace and worth saving. I think back to ESPN moving schools like BC, Syracuse, and Pittsburgh despite the fact that none of them really moved the needle on a large scale or gave the ACC any serious bump in money. ESPN apparently wanted them in their inventory though so there they are in a viable conference despite them not really anchoring a Power league in their past lives as Big East members. No offense to any of those schools, just an observation.
So what if the ACCN is not a long term solution and what if ESPN knows it?
What if they've given themselves time to come up with the longer term solution and thus the formation of an ACC and an extension of the GOR?
What if we end up seeing something like this form?
SEC/ACC merger + ESPN property BYU = 36 team national conference
West: BYU, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri
South: LSU, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Alabama, Auburn, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Louisville
East: Miami, Florida, Florida State, Georgia, Georgia Tech, South Carolina, Clemson, Virginia Tech, West Virginia
North: Boston College, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Virginia, North Carolina, North Carolina State, Duke, Wake Forest
Really though, when you break it down, these are some strong regional divisions that secure a lot of rivalries and keep pretty much everyone happy while maintaining a great deal of parity.
If you played 8 games within your division and let's say 1 permanent rivalry along with 2 additional cross division games on a rotational basis then that would be 11 great games per year. It would take forever to play everyone, but that's sort of the point. Everyone's under the same roof, but you get the feel of non-conference games by playing teams from other regions you don't see very often. They end up being conference games in reality, however. The 4 division winners meet for the conference title.
1. We've seen that ESPN is willing to create linear networks in order to gain leverage and better control over properties. We saw that with UT, but not with the Big 12 as a whole.
2. While the ACC is obviously a valuable property and desired by ESPN, is it possible that the Mothership knows that linear networks are on their way out in the long term? The SEC and Big Ten have widely desired products on a national scale that hedge against a change in the marketplace. If linear networks become unfeasible then it's easy for them to fall back on new technology to replace any lost income. This would be harder to accomplish with a league like the ACC due to its overall smaller fan bases being that it has numerous private schools and smaller publics in its roster.
3. While ESPN did use the ACC to house desired properties from the Big East and will likely use the SEC to house desired properties from the Big 12, is it possible we'll see a coming together under one roof of the major products of these leagues if the ACC Network proves not to be financially feasible into the next decade?
4. The failure of ESPN to secure the desired future of the SEC and ACC came when the ACC rejected a deal that would have secured UT, OU, and KU along with full membership from Notre Dame. There is no suitable alternative path to recreating the sort of stability or financial potential that move would have garnered.
5. While the markets that the ACC Network will represent are both populous and affluent, the odds of garnering rates comparable to the SECN or BTN are fairly low.
6. The ACC Grant of Rights has been secured through 2036. The primary issue here being that they have to have a GOR at all. While this agreement provides a great deal of security, it does not provide financial assurances that hedge against a change in the marketplace.
7. There still appears to be no mechanism in place to force Notre Dame to join fully despite the appeal of 16 team super-conferences from a practical and structural standpoint.
So what am I suggesting? Well, I'm not really suggesting anything. I'm just thinking out loud.
When I first started contemplating the idea of a SEC/Big 12 merger many years ago, one aspect of my theory is that the 24 team league would create enough weight in the marketplace to attract schools from the ACC...to crack the nut so to speak. Now, I don't believe at all that the SEC and Big 12 will merge, but in my varied musings on how the SEC would best raid the Big 12 I remembered my original notion and started thinking about the other market aspects.
So let's say for a minute that ESPN uses the SEC to house the following schools...Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas, and West Virginia. As I look at the current Big 12, these are the schools I think for one reason or the other are potentially valuable in the marketplace and worth saving. I think back to ESPN moving schools like BC, Syracuse, and Pittsburgh despite the fact that none of them really moved the needle on a large scale or gave the ACC any serious bump in money. ESPN apparently wanted them in their inventory though so there they are in a viable conference despite them not really anchoring a Power league in their past lives as Big East members. No offense to any of those schools, just an observation.
So what if the ACCN is not a long term solution and what if ESPN knows it?
What if they've given themselves time to come up with the longer term solution and thus the formation of an ACC and an extension of the GOR?
What if we end up seeing something like this form?
SEC/ACC merger + ESPN property BYU = 36 team national conference
West: BYU, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri
South: LSU, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Alabama, Auburn, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Louisville
East: Miami, Florida, Florida State, Georgia, Georgia Tech, South Carolina, Clemson, Virginia Tech, West Virginia
North: Boston College, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Virginia, North Carolina, North Carolina State, Duke, Wake Forest
Really though, when you break it down, these are some strong regional divisions that secure a lot of rivalries and keep pretty much everyone happy while maintaining a great deal of parity.
If you played 8 games within your division and let's say 1 permanent rivalry along with 2 additional cross division games on a rotational basis then that would be 11 great games per year. It would take forever to play everyone, but that's sort of the point. Everyone's under the same roof, but you get the feel of non-conference games by playing teams from other regions you don't see very often. They end up being conference games in reality, however. The 4 division winners meet for the conference title.