Hear me out - this is not unrealistic. All that needs to happen is:
1) Alabama loses the Iron Bowl
2) Florida loses to either Florida State OR LSU (giving Florida 3 losses)
3) Florida beats Alabama in the SEC Championship game
There's no way the committee lets a team in the playoffs that just lost 2 games in a row. And there's no way a 3-loss team gets in the playoffs.
If this happens there's a good chance we could see 2 Big 10 teams and 2 ACC teams in the playoff.
Only chance is if Alabama loses to Auburn and the SEC CCG.
Even then, maybe not.
Look. I loathe the Krimsem Tahd and everything that it touches. But Alabama is not losing 2 games in a row to Auburn and Florida.
I might as well put a thread saying.. Could South Alabama beat Charlotte in next years CFP championship game? It could happen, but its pretty unlikely.
For the op's scenario to happen- Tennessee would have to lose to either Missouri or Vanderbilt. Both are 1-5 in conference play. In other words highly unlikely. Tennessee has a 67% chance of winning both of them. And Tennessee isn't beating Alabama.
(11-15-2016 01:23 PM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ]For the op's scenario to happen- Tennessee would have to lose to either Missouri or Vanderbilt. Both are 1-5 in conference play. In other words highly unlikely. Tennessee has a 67% chance of winning both of them. And Tennessee isn't beating Alabama.
Actually, Florida would have to beat LSU and lose to FSU. If they lose to LSU, Tennessee is in the SEC CG; if the Gators win, they're in regardless of the FSU game.
Bama is not losing so moot.
More likely loss-contributing scenarios:
1) Nick Saban misses the rest of the season after being hospitalized with heart arrhythmia (surprisingly debunking the rumors that he lacks the organ...).
2) Jalen Hurd misses the Iron Bowl and SEC championship after developing unnaturally large and painful kidney stones, directly linked to his binge drinking of diet Dr. Pepper (though an SEC championship game half-time commercial featuring both Larry Culpepper AND Lil' Sweet publicly refutes the connection, with horrific detail)
3) Lane Kiffen misses the Iron Bowl on personal leave after his wife *unexpectedly* gives birth to a baby girl. Then, one week later, Kiffen again takes leave and misses the SEC championship game as his wife unexpectedly gives birth to *another* baby girl.
4) The entire Tide front seven, several backups, and Big Al develop severe flu-like symptoms during pre-game drills. A powdery substance is found to have been sprinkled all over the Alabama end zone. Cameras later show Aubie the tiger secretly removing a small bag from the end zone pylon and stuffing it up Big Al's trunk.
What are the odds Alabama loses to Auburn? Id say like 5% chance, looking ahead to SEC championship since they already clinched the west.
What are the chances they lose to TN? Id like to say 5% as a fan, but probably about 1%.
Alabama is the best team in the country and I don't think it's close. So no, Alabama will not lose the iron bowl or the SEC championship, and no, the SEC will not miss the CFP. I think there's probably only a 10% chance that Alabama doesn't win the entire thing, IMO.
(11-15-2016 02:42 PM)YNot Wrote: [ -> ]More likely loss-contributing scenarios:
1) Nick Saban misses the rest of the season after being hospitalized with heart arrhythmia (surprisingly debunking the rumors that he lacks the organ...).
2) Jalen Hurd misses the Iron Bowl and SEC championship after developing unnaturally large and painful kidney stones, directly linked to his binge drinking of diet Dr. Pepper (though an SEC championship game half-time commercial featuring both Larry Culpepper AND Lil' Sweet publicly refutes the connection, with horrific detail)
3) Lane Kiffen misses the Iron Bowl on personal leave after his wife *unexpectedly* gives birth to a baby girl. Then, one week later, Kiffen again takes leave and misses the SEC championship game as his wife unexpectedly gives birth to *another* baby girl.
4) The entire Tide front seven, several backups, and Big Al develop severe flu-like symptoms during pre-game drills. A powdery substance is found to have been sprinkled all over the Alabama end zone. Cameras later show Aubie the tiger secretly removing a small bag from the end zone pylon and stuffing it up Big Al's trunk.
While those are good, there is a scenario where 'Bama could lose in the CFP...
Lane Kiffin gets a HC opportunity but has to leave before bowl season starts.
Yes, the SEC could be left out of the playoffs.
But, what makes this thread silly is the same is true with any other P5 conference as well, if games ahead break certain ways. So there's nothing to discuss here, really.
I'm going to say no even with a loss Alabama gets in.
(11-15-2016 04:11 PM)SouthEastAlaska Wrote: [ -> ]Alabama is the best team in the country and I don't think it's close. So no, Alabama will not lose the iron bowl or the SEC championship, and no, the SEC will not miss the CFP. I think there's probably only a 10% chance that Alabama doesn't win the entire thing, IMO.
Agree
Even if Alabama lost the Iron Bowl, they would still get in the CFP. The only way Alabama doesn't get into the CFP is if they lose their next two games and that ain't gonna happen.
Clearly they won't lose to Chattanooga. So I'm assuming you mean lose to Auburn and the CCG.
Alabama would have to lose the SEC Championship in embarrassing fashion
It's not going to happen
The Tide losing to both Auburn and the SEC East winner would be more unlikely than anything that's happened in CFB for a long, long time. No one should lose any sleep over the possibility of it.
But if it did happen, the SEC might well be out, depending on what happened everywhere else, and for sure an 11-1 non-champ Ohio State would be ahead of both Bama and the SEC East winner in the final ranking.