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Some early lines popping up. Shocked at the APP/GS opening line. Wow.

Appalachian State -3 (-4.5)
Georgia Southern

Texas A&M -42
NMSU

http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-foot...las-vegas/
Yow. I'm off to make a wager. App St., go win me some money.
Does Vegas' formula have a rivalry factor? Otherwise I just don't understand how they could come to such a close line
Jags open as favorites for the first time this season. (Other than the unofficial Nichols lines).
(10-23-2016 05:39 PM)USAJag2011 Wrote: [ -> ]Jags open as favorites for the first time this season. (Other than the unofficial Nichols lines).

Nothing unofficial about Nichols line . . . those are games you can bet on.
(10-23-2016 05:39 PM)USAJag2011 Wrote: [ -> ]Jags open as favorites for the first time this season. (Other than the unofficial Nichols lines).

-4.5 seems about right for what anyone can figure out about our teams at this point.
(10-23-2016 07:31 PM)Pounce FTW Wrote: [ -> ]
(10-23-2016 05:39 PM)USAJag2011 Wrote: [ -> ]Jags open as favorites for the first time this season. (Other than the unofficial Nichols lines).

-4.5 seems about right for what anyone can figure out about our teams at this point.

If the line was reversed I wouldn't bet on the Jags this year, NOR would I entertain the idea of GaSt plus the points. Anything can happen in this series (it's actually a rivalry game for both teams believe it or not). GO JAGS!
(10-23-2016 04:33 PM)DrGonzo Wrote: [ -> ]Does Vegas' formula have a rivalry factor? Otherwise I just don't understand how they could come to such a close line

Perception of those giving Vegas money.
Updated lines:

Appalachian State -5
at Georgia Southern

New Mexico State +42.5
at Texas A&M

Georgia State +3
at South Alabama

UL-Monroe +18
at Arkansas State


All I will say about the App State/Ga Southern line is that this game (based on the history of our rivalry) has a close game written all over it. I would not touch it. I think the spread will settle around 5.5 or 6. Sagarin "Predictor" has a 5.52 point victory for App State.
(10-23-2016 04:33 PM)DrGonzo Wrote: [ -> ]Does Vegas' formula have a rivalry factor? Otherwise I just don't understand how they could come to such a close line

Typically, Vegas gives a team -3 for playing at home. Since home field advantage is meaningless, you can safely add that metric in. App at -7 is pretty fair, IMO.
I admit, after the UCA debacle, I would never have believed Vegas would have us as an 18 point favorite against a conference opponent. We've struggled trying to score 18 points in a game as it is.
(10-24-2016 10:38 AM)chiefsfan Wrote: [ -> ]I admit, after the UCA debacle, I would never have believed Vegas would have us as an 18 point favorite against a conference opponent. We've struggled trying to score 18 points in a game as it is.

Also, UCA is a better team than ULM. You were a 16.5 point favorite against UCA, which includes some amount of FBS/FCS bias.
No predictions in App/GS rivalry game. If I had to play anything I'd take the over at 44.5 however, as I expect GS to hit a big play or two versus App.

USA playing GA St. at home, a game that will likely decide if USA makes a bowl game. GA St. isn't going to score 20 points, so it comes down to can USA score three TDs. No over/under on this one, but when it comes out if it's 40 or more take the over.

Ark St. line has jumped to 20 and probably justified as ULM is banged up.

Texas A&M -43.5 now versus NMSU, over/under 69.5. I don't see NMSU scoring over 10, take the under.
.5 points from a perfect week.
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