CSNbbs

http://big12fanatics.com/finance-schmina...n-revenue/

"It makes a lot of sense why some are upset if they wanted a specific team to join the Big 12, but if we are equating stability with revenue, expansion is a bad move for the conference. The amount of revenue the Big 12 will receive to not expand is far and away the best option available to them for now and the long term."

The graphs are in 3D so it's kinda hard to read. It all in all it looks like we will get a lot more money.

Yes, the Big 12 will make more money staying at 10. Every member should be concerned about how much TV they will make.

Enjoy it while it lasts

Goodbye Big 12. You are now a worthless conference that is worth lesser and lesser every year until you do expand.

Woof. Lot of problems there.

Notice how that graph cuts off at 2024? Yeah. That's an issue. Because while they will be ok till then, when the next TV negotiation comes up and the B12 is severely lacking in inventory and market reach compared to the other four power conferences, the networks will be forced to hike back their share of the limited college TV revenue pie.

People lambasting them aren't doing it for fun. The B12 is taking the short term approach. It's clear UT and OU want to keep their options open and maximize revenue in the short term, while the other 8 are far too frightened of Mom and Dad to try and get the conference to buy into a vision that means strengthening the whole for the long term.

I don't see any other power team ever willing to join the B12 when they are able, even with the revenues provided. And the G5 teams they are considering today won't look any better in 8 years when they have fallen further behind financially. Those nice fat revenues will likely evaporate come the next round of discussions, and UT and OU will flock to the richer neighbor powers (B1G, SEC, Independence, wherever) leaving the other 8 holding the bag and relegating many of them much like UC, USF, and UConn were. A few may get lucky and pulled along, but there isn't enough overlap of motivation and opportunity for very many of the rest to find homes.

The B12 is done. They are almost exactly following the roadmap of the Big East, and until they change course, they are likely ending up in the same place.

If you're Iowa State, Kansas State, Baylor, TCU, Texas Tech, WVU, enjoy that money because it's gonna go down significantly in a few years.

(10-20-2016 03:41 PM)Comet Wrote: [ -> ]If you're Iowa State, Kansas State, Baylor, TCU, Texas Tech, WVU, enjoy that money because it's gonna go down significantly in a few years.

Isn't it ironical that the Big 12 (currently 10) may well wind up returning to being the Big 8???

Yeah, but there was quality in that Big 8. There won't be when it returns to that number.

Runner, I get the impression that expansion would have given UT and OU further leverage to get even more money out of any renegotiation. I don't think they are the ones doing the short-term thinking...expansion would have given way to extending the GoR at the expense of the others. This is all on the non-contributors locking themselves in to make whatever they can before it all goes away.

(10-20-2016 04:49 PM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote: [ -> ]Yeah, but there was quality in that Big 8. There won't be when it returns to that number.

Runner, I get the impression that expansion would have given UT and OU further leverage to get even more money out of any renegotiation. I don't think they are the ones doing the short-term thinking...expansion would have given way to extending the GoR at the expense of the others. This is all on the non-contributors locking themselves in to make whatever they can before it all goes away.

Not really. I remember 40 years ago, the Big 8 was often referred to as "the Big Two and Little Six".

(10-20-2016 03:15 PM)jaredf29 Wrote: [ -> ]Enjoy it while it lasts

The problem us UCF and USF fans faced with this analysis is that it's by no means clear how adding two or four teams now would solve any issues that might arise in 2025.

So might as well take all the money now.

The Cincinnati fan nailed it. This is short term thinking and that never ends well.

I'm sure that schools like Iowa State were terrified that if they disobeyed the big two they would be left out now, so they decided to go along to get along and take their chances that they won't be left out eight years from now.

I get that. However, this is a really stupid decision for at least eight of the 10 members of that conference. I think most people realize that right now but they are too proud/afraid to admit it.

I also agree that this is very reminiscent of the Big East. I was a fan of the school that was in the Big East and it was evident for years and years that we were living on borrowed time. The only question for several years there was when what it finally happened and what we land on our feet. Fortunately, my school (Pitt) did. Others were not so lucky.

The same writing is on the wall for the Big 12 and that is a real shame because it has been a very good conference. However, they've made a series of bizarre decisions that have only served to limit their own conference's lifespan.

They definitely should have expanded. I think it would've been a good choice to expand by four teams. However, two would've been the absolute minimum. By not expanding at all, they are able to extort a little more money upfront but they're going to pay for it on the backend and everyone can see that train coming straight down the tracks.

This is basically a credit card mentality – not good.

(10-20-2016 04:56 PM)quo vadis Wrote: [ -> ]

(10-20-2016 03:15 PM)jaredf29 Wrote: [ -> ]Enjoy it while it lasts

The problem us UCF and USF fans faced with this analysis is that it's by no means clear how adding two or four teams now would solve any issues that might arise in 2025.

So might as well take all the money now.

I think everyone knew that even if they had made it in, we had 8 years to enjoy money. 8 years of money was worth the risk to many.

Or.......the little 8 swallow hard & allow both UT & OU to take a share that keeps them in line with SEC & B1G payouts in order to keep their gravy train rolling. Moving toward such an arrangement is what cost the Big 12 Neb, CO, MO & aTm. But the little 8 don't have the leverage or much choice otherwise & will have to accept whatever UT & OU dictate. Of course OU is having trouble with the LHN so it may be a messy demise where no agreement can be reached to satisfy both TX & OU in the same conference.

(10-20-2016 04:55 PM)quo vadis Wrote: [ -> ]

(10-20-2016 04:49 PM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote: [ -> ]Yeah, but there was quality in that Big 8. There won't be when it returns to that number.

Runner, I get the impression that expansion would have given UT and OU further leverage to get even more money out of any renegotiation. I don't think they are the ones doing the short-term thinking...expansion would have given way to extending the GoR at the expense of the others. This is all on the non-contributors locking themselves in to make whatever they can before it all goes away.

Not really. I remember 40 years ago, the Big 8 was often referred to as "the Big Two and Little Six".

That's still two more than whatever this clunker would have.

(10-20-2016 03:40 PM)stxrunner Wrote: [ -> ]Woof. Lot of problems there.

Notice how that graph cuts off at 2024? Yeah. That's an issue. Because while they will be ok till then, when the next TV negotiation comes up and the B12 is severely lacking in inventory and market reach compared to the other four power conferences, the networks will be forced to hike back their share of the limited college TV revenue pie.


Those nice fat revenues will likely evaporate come the next round of discussions, and UT and OU will flock to the richer neighbor powers (B1G, SEC, Independence, wherever) leaving the other 8 holding the bag and relegating many of them much like UC, USF, and UConn were. A few may get lucky and pulled along, but there isn't enough overlap of motivation and opportunity for very many of the rest to find homes.

The B12 is done. They are almost exactly following the roadmap of the Big East, and until they change course, they are likely ending up in the same place.

You know this how? Are you a TV consultant?
Fact is the current revenues were negotiated on new contracts with the existing members. To assume it will be lower is an assumption in contradiction to what actually happened in the market.

When you look at comparable networks over the past couple of years, Big 12 TV ratings aren't far behind the Big 10, they are slightly ahead of the ACC and a little bit further ahead of the Pac 12.

And there is no "limited TV money." There are limited time slots. But the money will be whatever makes money for the networks, whether that is $100 million or $50 billion.

it is kind of funny that so many former Big East schools have this message of "let us in the Big 12 and we will not sit around and help the Big 12 fall apart like we let the Big East fall apart"

it is like people saying that if you do not want your conference to end up like the WAC you better take the advice of and add NMSU and Idaho otherwise DOOOOMMM!!!!!

(10-20-2016 03:40 PM)stxrunner Wrote: [ -> ]Woof. Lot of problems there.

Notice how that graph cuts off at 2024? Yeah. That's an issue. Because while they will be ok till then, when the next TV negotiation comes up and the B12 is severely lacking in inventory and market reach compared to the other four power conferences, the networks will be forced to hike back their share of the limited college TV revenue pie.

People lambasting them aren't doing it for fun. The B12 is taking the short term approach. It's clear UT and OU want to keep their options open and maximize revenue in the short term, while the other 8 are far too frightened of Mom and Dad to try and get the conference to buy into a vision that means strengthening the whole for the long term.

I don't see any other power team ever willing to join the B12 when they are able, even with the revenues provided. And the G5 teams they are considering today won't look any better in 8 years when they have fallen further behind financially. Those nice fat revenues will likely evaporate come the next round of discussions, and UT and OU will flock to the richer neighbor powers (B1G, SEC, Independence, wherever) leaving the other 8 holding the bag and relegating many of them much like UC, USF, and UConn were. A few may get lucky and pulled along, but there isn't enough overlap of motivation and opportunity for very many of the rest to find homes.

The B12 is done. They are almost exactly following the roadmap of the Big East, and until they change course, they are likely ending up in the same place.

It's not the same road map of the Big East. Those two conferences had completely different issues that led to completely different outcomes.

(10-20-2016 06:30 PM)RutgersGuy Wrote: [ -> ]It's not the same road map of the Big East. Those two conferences had completely different issues that led to completely different outcomes.

I agree, almost completely different circumstances.

The Big xii sucks