This has nothing to do with JMU. Just a general football strategy question.
Scenario: Your team is down by 15 with 6 minutes left in the game. You score a TD. Do you kick the PAT or go for two? Why?
(10-10-2016 07:48 AM)JMUDuke25 Wrote: [ -> ]This has nothing to do with JMU. Just a general football strategy question.
Scenario: Your team is down by 15 with 6 minutes left in the game. You score a TD. Do you kick the PAT or go for two? Why?
We won
The mathematically correct choice is to go for 2 earlier after the first TD. You learn as soon as possible if you need to onside kick and adjust your game plan (because you need 2 more possessions) if you miss the 2 pointer instead of delaying this info you need. If you wait for the 2 pointer you may find this information out too late.
Nobody does this because everyone wants to "stay in the game longer" by making it 1 possession by kicking the XP. Because if you miss the 2 pointer everyone thinks you have now lost. For me that is like staying with 16 vs a dealers face card in blackjack. Its not the right choice, but you stay "alive" longer.
(10-10-2016 08:16 AM)UofRfan Wrote: [ -> ]The mathematically correct choice is to go for 2 earlier after the first TD. You learn as soon as possible if you need to onside kick and adjust your game plan (because you need 2 more possessions) if you miss the 2 pointer instead of delaying this info you need. If you wait for the 2 pointer you may find this information out too late.
Nobody does this because everyone wants to "stay in the game longer" by making it 1 possession by kicking the XP. Because if you miss the 2 pointer everyone thinks you have now lost. For me that is like staying with 16 vs a dealers face card in blackjack. Its not the right choice, but you stay "alive" longer.
Correct. I've always found it funny that most people playing Madden can get that decision right, but professional coaches ignore the math.
With the Abdullah play, there's more variables in play. If he had just gone down in bounds and we could take a knee, that would be the mathematically correct play in that scenario. But if we consider taking a knee a 99.99% chance to win, I still think being up 14 vs a team with no timeouts is a 99.95% chance to win. So I would rather have our star running back playing aggressively on instinct, rather than bogging him down with instructions that could be incorrectly applied to a future situation. we've all seen the negative consequences of players overthinking things, so I'd rather the coaches just not mess with him in this spot.
I'd kick the PAT because I think it puts more pressure on the other team's offense, which in turn increases the likelihood of at least one clock stoppage due to an incomplete pass.
Kick the PAT. Only chase points when absolutely necessary. Maintaining a one possession distance to lead keeps the pressure on opponent. Also, you should be planning on only getting one more possession. Two is a gift if it happens.
you do NOT go for two
if you miss, you still need 2 scores. you know it, and more importantly, your OPPONENT knows it. They will go in kill the clock mode and leave you with no time to get two scores.
You keep it a 1 score game.
it's no different than the following scenario.
one minute left in the game, down 9 points.....it's 4th and goal on your opponents 8 yard line.
do you kick the FG or go for it?
every coach in america kicks the FG in that situation. You're only chance anyway is to create an extra possession from the onside kick. might as well do that with as much time left in the game as possible.
you go for the TD and miss, you are done.
(10-10-2016 09:32 AM)jmu007 Wrote: [ -> ]Kick the PAT. Only chase points when absolutely necessary. Maintaining a one possession distance to lead keeps the pressure on opponent. Also, you should be planning on only getting one more possession. Two is a gift if it happens.
I agree. I think momentum is a real thing and the chances of converting a 2 point conversion are better when the D has given up a second TD with the potential to tie the game.
On the other hand, if you miss the 2 point conversion after the first TD, the second TD is irrelevant... unless you have the time to score again. Instead of being down 1 score, you are now down by two scores.
Then comes the onside kick issue. If you miss the 2pt conversion on the second TD, you are most likely going to onside kick (depending on how much time is left). If you miss the 2 point conversion on the first TD, you are now down by two scores. Either way you are probably going to onside kick to have a chance to win. In the second scenario you are in a far bigger deficit and may have to rely on more than just one onside kick recover to win.
(10-10-2016 08:16 AM)UofRfan Wrote: [ -> ]The mathematically correct choice is to go for 2 earlier after the first TD. You learn as soon as possible if you need to onside kick and adjust your game plan (because you need 2 more possessions) if you miss the 2 pointer instead of delaying this info you need. If you wait for the 2 pointer you may find this information out too late.
Yep, this is my opinion pretty much spot on. And it amazes me how many coaches (even those that spout statistics and probabilities) get it wrong.
(10-10-2016 10:08 AM)Duke Dawg Wrote: [ -> ]it's no different than the following scenario.
one minute left in the game, down 9 points.....it's 4th and goal on your opponents 8 yard line.
do you kick the FG or go for it?
every coach in america kicks the FG in that situation. You're only chance anyway is to create an extra possession from the onside kick. might as well do that with as much time left in the game as possible.
you go for the TD and miss, you are done.
I think you kick the FG too because you're on the 8 yard line. But 4th and goal on the 1 the probabilities that you score the TD change drastically and you go for the TD first.
The object isn't to prolong the amount of time you are in the game. The object is to win the game and make coaching decisions that allow you to win the game. Even the decision doesn't work and you, in essence, lose the game with 1 minute left instead of with 15 seconds left.
(10-10-2016 07:48 AM)JMUDuke25 Wrote: [ -> ]This has nothing to do with JMU. Just a general football strategy question.
Scenario: Your team is down by 15 with 6 minutes left in the game. You score a TD. Do you kick the PAT or go for two? Why?
Coaches make decisions out of self-preservation all the time. It's the same reason coaches in the NFL punt on 4th & inches all the time. They know their team should be able to pick up 2-3 yards easily, but they'll get fired for "losing the game". So they punt.
"Extending the game" is self-preservation in my opinion, but I do think there is something to putting pressure on the other team by keeping it an 8-point game instead of going for 2.