So I've heard the crews at the CA and at 560 give their season predictions, and sounds like the expectations are generally around 7-5 (range was 6-6 up to 8-4). What's your expectations? I've thought of it this way:
> 50% odds we win
50/50 odds we win
< 50% odds we win
Now, I wear the blue shades and I go into every game believing we are coming away with a W! And I also believe that we have the talent to be something really special again (we're building a high-caliber program). But, sticking with the breakout above, here's my thoughts:
> 50%: 6 games (SEMO, Kansas, Bowling Green, Tulane, Tulsa, SMU)
50/50: 4 games (Temple, Navy, USF, Cincinnati)
< 50%: 2 games (Ole Miss, Houston)
I believe our defense will be stout and the first three games of the year allows some time for our offense to gel. I really think this could be the best team we've had, top to bottom. Sky's the limit - let's get it done Memphis!
Go Tigers!
I'm happy with 6-6 this year. Anything else is gravy.
We could be 3-0 headed to Oxfart looking to play a beat up rebel team. 4-0 isn't completely out of the question.
If we go 7-5 I'll be thrilled. Always hoping for more, but for Norvell's 1st year and a new QB, I'd be thrilled.
(08-25-2016 04:20 PM)WColt45 Wrote: [ -> ]We could be 3-0 headed to Oxfart looking to play a beat up rebel team. 4-0 isn't completely out of the question.
Agreed!
(08-25-2016 04:24 PM)Beetlejuice Wrote: [ -> ]If we go 7-5 I'll be thrilled. Always hoping for more, but for Norvell's 1st year and a new QB, I'd be thrilled.
Absolutely - it's really a tall task to replace the best QB in program history and arguably the best coach in program history. I do think we have a really good QB in Ferguson and I think Norvell is going to be the man, but to your point, this is year 1. Tall order, but I think we've got the guys to get it done.
(08-25-2016 04:45 PM)tcountytigerfan Wrote: [ -> ] (08-25-2016 04:24 PM)Beetlejuice Wrote: [ -> ]If we go 7-5 I'll be thrilled. Always hoping for more, but for Norvell's 1st year and a new QB, I'd be thrilled.
Absolutely - it's really a tall task to replace the best QB in program history and arguably the best coach in program history. I do think we have a really good QB in Ferguson and I think Norvell is going to be the man, but to your point, this is year 1. Tall order, but I think we've got the guys to get it done.
also going to be a challenge to replace the depth we lost at RB. A strong running game is a new QB's best friend. We don't necessarily have that now.
I think the worst-case scenario (aside from a once-in-a-generation rash of injuries or unforeseen catastrophe, things of that nature) is 6-6. I think 7-5 and 8-4 are much more likely. Nine-plus wins is unrealistic, but possible.
To look at the schedule
3 Sep v. Southeast Missouri - 95%
OFF
17 Sep v. Kansas - 90%
24 Sep v. Bowling Green - 65%
1 Oct at Ole Miss - 20%
6 Oct v. Temple - 60%
14 Oct at Tulane - 85%
22 Oct at Navy - 50%
29 Oct v. Tulsa - 75%
5 Nov at Southern Methodist - 80%
12 Nov v. South Florida - 45%
18 Nov at Cincinnati - 55%
25 Nov v. Houston - 40%
Taking my percentages in a vacuum, that's a 63.33% on the season, or roughly 7.6 wins (4.4 losses). I don't think we contend for the division or the conference, Houston is probably too good and we will never beat them ever again. I also really like South Florida to win their division. The really tough part is getting Temple (though at home) just five days after the Ole Miss game. Our East opponents do us no favors, as UConn and East Carolina are probably worse than Cincinnati, though I think Central Florida will bounce back quicker than people expect so I'm okay with missing them - though I would still like to trade them for one of ours.
I think the American stacks up like this.
Tier One (in order)
Houston
South Florida
Tier Two
Memphis
Temple
Cincinnati
Navy
Tier Three
UConn
East Carolina
Tulsa
Tier Four
Central Florida
Southern Methodist
Tulane
We should be able to go 8-4
7 wins is about making the grade, 8-9 wins is exceeding beyond expectations, anything more is fabulous. But let's rise to the occasions, beat UH & OM & everything else is gravy......
I'd say 9 and 3 or 8 and 4, but Brady Davis going down is concerning
(08-25-2016 07:24 PM)memphisike Wrote: [ -> ]I'd say 9 and 3 or 8 and 4, but Brady Davis going down is concerning
If Im not mistaken Stewert was listed as the #2 QB. I doubt the 3rd string QB going down will affect our win total
(08-25-2016 07:33 PM)Dynamos Wrote: [ -> ] (08-25-2016 07:24 PM)memphisike Wrote: [ -> ]I'd say 9 and 3 or 8 and 4, but Brady Davis going down is concerning
If Im not mistaken Stewert was list as the #2 QB. I doubt the 3rd string QB going down will affect our win total
Brady was the #2 QB
(08-25-2016 07:37 PM)MemphisFan95 Wrote: [ -> ] (08-25-2016 07:33 PM)Dynamos Wrote: [ -> ] (08-25-2016 07:24 PM)memphisike Wrote: [ -> ]I'd say 9 and 3 or 8 and 4, but Brady Davis going down is concerning
If Im not mistaken Stewert was list as the #2 QB. I doubt the 3rd string QB going down will affect our win total
Brady was the #2 QB
Link? I remember people saying Stewert was #2 on the depth chart
Also why would they make Brady "live" in practice but not Stewert?
(08-25-2016 07:40 PM)Dynamos Wrote: [ -> ] (08-25-2016 07:37 PM)MemphisFan95 Wrote: [ -> ] (08-25-2016 07:33 PM)Dynamos Wrote: [ -> ] (08-25-2016 07:24 PM)memphisike Wrote: [ -> ]I'd say 9 and 3 or 8 and 4, but Brady Davis going down is concerning
If Im not mistaken Stewert was list as the #2 QB. I doubt the 3rd string QB going down will affect our win total
Brady was the #2 QB
Link? I remember people saying Stewert was #2 on the depth chart
Also why would they make Brady "live" in practice but not Stewert?
The last 2 scrimmages every QB was live except Riley
http://memphis.247sports.com/Bolt/Redshi...n-46897707
New coaching staff, new QB, and difficult AAC schedule...7 wins would be quite good.
I've been saying 6-6, but i come up with 5-7 on the schedule. I'll still go with 6 wins. Keep in mind, our defense sucked last year and we outscored quite a few of our opponents. You have almost all new coaches. You are replacing the qb (key position) and team leader from last year, and he was our mvp last year. Lost a couple experienced running backs.
3 Sep v. Southeast Missouri - Win
17 Sep v. Kansas - Win
24 Sep v. Bowling Green - Loss
1 Oct at Ole Miss - Loss
6 Oct v. Temple - Loss
14 Oct at Tulane - Win
22 Oct at Navy - Loss
29 Oct v. Tulsa - Win
5 Nov at Southern Methodist - Win
12 Nov v. South Florida - Loss
18 Nov at Cincinnati - Loss
25 Nov v. Houston - Loss