per Kirk Bohls
http://www.mystatesman.com/news/sports/b...-te/nsK6D/
Quote:1. Bob Bowlsby remains very mum about the process that could lead to Big 12 expansion, but one Big 12 school official said 2012 Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney has called power brokers, including Oklahoma State’s T. Boone Pickens, lobbying for support for BYU to join the conference. Romney is a BYU grad. Bowlsby said there are fewer than 20 interested candidates as has been reported, but declined to say if any Power 5 conference schools have expressed interest. He’s almost done going through applicants’ one-hour video presentations and has had “several calls” with Big 12 presidents to update them. Asked how the presidents are feeling about the process, Bowlsby said, “It depends on who you ask. I think there continues to be an open mindedness about it. I think some have developed their positions and probably aren’t sharing it. If it was a clear path, it wouldn’t have taken so long.”
Quote:“If it was a clear path, it wouldn’t have taken so long.”
This. Which is why the whole situation is so difficult to predict.
My own guess as of this moment:
75% chance the Big <XII expands by 4 teams.
20% chance they expand by 2 teams.
5% chance they don't expand at all.
In order of likelihood:
1. Cincinnati
2. Houston
3. BYU
4. UConn
5. UCF and USF as a pair
6. Memphis
7. Tulane
8. UCF or USF separately
Colorado State not really on the board, IMHO
My guess is that its all about the west. The Big 12 will add BYU, Colorado state, New Mexico, and either Houston or UNLV. This will still give the Big 12 plenty of markets after Oklahoma and Texas walk away in a few seasons.
(08-23-2016 09:56 PM)Native Georgian Wrote: [ -> ]Quote:“If it was a clear path, it wouldn’t have taken so long.”
This. Which is why the whole situation is so difficult to predict.
My own guess as of this moment:
75% chance the Big <XII expands by 4 teams.
20% chance they expand by 2 teams.
5% chance they don't expand at all.
In order of likelihood:
1. Cincinnati
2. Houston
3. BYU
4. UConn
5. UCF and USF as a pair
6. Memphis
7. Tulane
8. UCF or USF separately
Colorado State not really on the board, IMHO
My guess is not much different:
50% 4
30% 2
20% 0
1. Houston
2. BYU
3. Cincinnati
4. UConn
5. Colorado St.
6. Tulane
7. UCF
8. USF
9. Memphis
(08-23-2016 10:21 PM)bullet Wrote: [ -> ] (08-23-2016 09:56 PM)Native Georgian Wrote: [ -> ]Quote:“If it was a clear path, it wouldn’t have taken so long.”
This. Which is why the whole situation is so difficult to predict.
My own guess as of this moment:
75% chance the Big <XII expands by 4 teams.
20% chance they expand by 2 teams.
5% chance they don't expand at all.
In order of likelihood:
1. Cincinnati
2. Houston
3. BYU
4. UConn
5. UCF and USF as a pair
6. Memphis
7. Tulane
8. UCF or USF separately
Colorado State not really on the board, IMHO
My guess is not much different:
50% 4
30% 2
20% 0
1. Houston
2. BYU
3. Cincinnati
4. UConn
5. Colorado St.
6. Tulane
7. UCF
8. USF
9. Memphis
Certainly about where I'd rank them but I would have Memphis above Tulane and usf. They have 2 great brands in uconn and byu. A proven commodity the last 10 yrs in UC and the team with the most potential in Houston. Id take any 2 of those 4 you can flip a coin.
Please help me understand how there's any chance of expansion by four. I just can't see it.
ESPN was saying, today, they gotta get into Fla.
Whatever they do, let it be 4.
(08-24-2016 02:03 AM)Fresno St. Alum Wrote: [ -> ]ESPN was saying, today, they gotta get into Fla.
Whatever they do, let it be 4.
Was that on a broadcast or in an article?
(08-24-2016 02:16 AM)HawaiiMongoose Wrote: [ -> ] (08-24-2016 02:03 AM)Fresno St. Alum Wrote: [ -> ]ESPN was saying, today, they gotta get into Fla.
Whatever they do, let it be 4.
Was that on a broadcast or in an article?
ESPN U Big 12 preview. They had some "insider" talking to the 3 guys in the studio
It will be on again at 2am pdt.
(08-24-2016 02:20 AM)Fresno St. Alum Wrote: [ -> ] (08-24-2016 02:16 AM)HawaiiMongoose Wrote: [ -> ] (08-24-2016 02:03 AM)Fresno St. Alum Wrote: [ -> ]ESPN was saying, today, they gotta get into Fla.
Whatever they do, let it be 4.
Was that on a broadcast or in an article?
ESPN U Big 12 preview. They had some "insider" talking the 3 guys in the studio
It will be on again at 2am pdt.
Interesting, thanks.
(08-23-2016 11:25 PM)MplsBison Wrote: [ -> ]Please help me understand how there's any chance of expansion by four. I just can't see it.
I think it has to do with the fact that most know that UT and OU are eventually going to leave the Big 12. If they expand by four now. Everyone gets extra money and the rest of the Big 12 are protected somewhat from the effects of future conference realignment.
(08-23-2016 09:56 PM)Native Georgian Wrote: [ -> ]Quote:“If it was a clear path, it wouldn’t have taken so long.”
This. Which is why the whole situation is so difficult to predict.
My own guess as of this moment:
75% chance the Big <XII expands by 4 teams.
20% chance they expand by 2 teams.
5% chance they don't expand at all.
In order of likelihood:
1. Cincinnati
2. Houston
3. BYU
4. UConn
5. UCF and USF as a pair
6. Memphis
7. Tulane
8. UCF or USF separately
Colorado State not really on the board, IMHO
Not an unreasonable list or percentages. Mine would be:
80% chance the Big <XII expands by 4 teams.
20% chance they expand by 2 teams.
0% chance they don't expand at all.
In order of likelihood:
1. Memphis
2. Cincinnati
3. Houston
4. UCF
5. UConn
6. Tulane
I think BYU would have been 3, but is now out. That took out any chance for Boise, too. I also think USF is out. I don't think CSU is in the mix, either
(08-24-2016 05:35 AM)hawghiggs Wrote: [ -> ] (08-23-2016 11:25 PM)MplsBison Wrote: [ -> ]Please help me understand how there's any chance of expansion by four. I just can't see it.
I think it has to do with the fact that most know that UT and OU are eventually going to leave the Big 12. If they expand by four now. Everyone gets extra money and the rest of the Big 12 are protected somewhat from the effects of future conference realignment.
This is sound reasoning. Too many people are looking at this issue too shortsightedly.
The rest of the schools in that league need to protect themselves if/when Texas and Oklahoma leave for greener pastures elsewhere.
The best way to do that is to expand now and "legitimize" two or four G5 schools so that when the GOR expires in 2025, those schools have a chance as being seen as accepted members of the club.
(08-23-2016 10:12 PM)hawghiggs Wrote: [ -> ]My guess is that its all about the west. The Big 12 will add BYU, Colorado state, New Mexico, and either Houston or UNLV. This will still give the Big 12 plenty of markets after Oklahoma and Texas walk away in a few seasons.
If it was up to me this would be the route I go as well
But, the likely adds are, IMO, Houston, Cincinnati, BYU, then Memphis in that order.
(08-24-2016 08:21 AM)Dr. Isaly von Yinzer Wrote: [ -> ] (08-24-2016 05:35 AM)hawghiggs Wrote: [ -> ] (08-23-2016 11:25 PM)MplsBison Wrote: [ -> ]Please help me understand how there's any chance of expansion by four. I just can't see it.
I think it has to do with the fact that most know that UT and OU are eventually going to leave the Big 12. If they expand by four now. Everyone gets extra money and the rest of the Big 12 are protected somewhat from the effects of future conference realignment.
This is sound reasoning. Too many people are looking at this issue too shortsightedly.
The rest of the schools in that league need to protect themselves if/when Texas and Oklahoma leave for greener pastures elsewhere.
The best way to do that is to expand now and "legitimize" two or four G5 schools so that when the GOR expires in 2025, those schools have a chance as being seen as accepted members of the club.
Exactly right. All 8 of those other schools are best served by going to 14. The other factor I think pushes them to expand by 4 is that UT wants Houston for political reasons and all the non Texas schools oppose them. They do not want to shift even more power to Texas (the state). So for Houston to get in, I think they have to be one of four. I don't see any scenario where Houston has the votes to get in if they expand by 2. If they had 2 who could get the votes, this would already be done.
I think it's Cinci, UConn, Houston and either BYU or a Florida school, depending on how they really feel about BYU.
(08-24-2016 08:21 AM)Dr. Isaly von Yinzer Wrote: [ -> ] (08-24-2016 05:35 AM)hawghiggs Wrote: [ -> ] (08-23-2016 11:25 PM)MplsBison Wrote: [ -> ]Please help me understand how there's any chance of expansion by four. I just can't see it.
I think it has to do with the fact that most know that UT and OU are eventually going to leave the Big 12. If they expand by four now. Everyone gets extra money and the rest of the Big 12 are protected somewhat from the effects of future conference realignment.
This is sound reasoning. Too many people are looking at this issue too shortsightedly.
The rest of the schools in that league need to protect themselves if/when Texas and Oklahoma leave for greener pastures elsewhere.
The best way to do that is to expand now and "legitimize" two or four G5 schools so that when the GOR expires in 2025, those schools have a chance as being seen as accepted members of the club.
My thoughts as well. Better to go through 4 additions at once instead of looking again in a few years and being seen as just back-filling. Legitimize is a good word for it.
(08-24-2016 05:35 AM)hawghiggs Wrote: [ -> ] (08-23-2016 11:25 PM)MplsBison Wrote: [ -> ]Please help me understand how there's any chance of expansion by four. I just can't see it.
I think it has to do with the fact that most know that UT and OU are eventually going to leave the Big 12. If they expand by four now. Everyone gets extra money and the rest of the Big 12 are protected somewhat from the effects of future conference realignment.
And if there any chance ESPN and Fox knows UT and OU will leave the Big 12 they are going to take the Big 12 to court over the pro rata rate. The Big 12 isn't going to go to 14 teams. They will more than likely go to 12 and eventually to the 10 presidents will settle on the two schools invited. It's either that or no expansion at all. But there is no chance in hell the Big 12 goes to 14 teams. I would bet a unicorn's life on it.
I too think only two teams get added because of the TV pushback. The two will be from BYU, Cincinnati, UConn, Houston, Memphis, UCF, and USF.
Not only what Bama said, but also: UT and OU aren't going anywhere. That's plain as day.
Texas can't take the LHN with them anywhere. It needs the Big 12.
OU can only go to the SEC without riding Texas coattails, and it wants none of that.
(08-24-2016 09:11 AM)Big Frog II Wrote: [ -> ]I too think only two teams get added because of the TV pushback. The two will be from BYU, Cincinnati, UConn, Houston, Memphis, UCF, and USF.
I keep thinking that it will be BYU and UConn. They check a lot of the boxes and those seem like the two that might appease ESPN. No only that, but those are the two that would do the least amount of harm to the AAC.