Polls consistently underestimating right-wing support -- Cameron & Bibi, now Brexit. So if polls show Clinton up 5, could Trump be even?
-- Bill Kristol @BillKristol
RANDOM ACTS OF KINDNESS
Hillary is probably funneling money to multiple pollsters.
(06-25-2016 10:38 AM)green Wrote: [ -> ]Polls consistently underestimating right-wing support -- Cameron & Bibi, now Brexit. So if polls show Clinton up 5, could Trump be even?
-- Bill Kristol @BillKristol
RANDOM ACTS OF KINDNESS
Comparing British polling to that in the USA is apples and oranges. Underestimating right-wing support in USA polls is an urban legend. Polls are off sometimes but it isn't because of that.
(06-25-2016 10:51 AM)dawgitall Wrote: [ -> ] (06-25-2016 10:38 AM)green Wrote: [ -> ]Polls consistently underestimating right-wing support -- Cameron & Bibi, now Brexit. So if polls show Clinton up 5, could Trump be even?
-- Bill Kristol @BillKristol
RANDOM ACTS OF KINDNESS
Comparing British polling to that in the USA is apples and oranges. Underestimating right-wing support in USA polls is an urban legend. Polls are off sometimes but it isn't because of that.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/11/14...58158.html
Poll and poll averages generally understated Republican margins at the end of campaign 2014. We examine three theories that may explain why. This is HuffPollster for Friday, November 14, 2014.
-- huffingtonpost
URBAN OSCAR MEYER
if there is a silver lining in the Brexit vote, its that it will help HRC win the White House.
The British polls have undercounted the support of the far right. That's obvious at this point.
However, the polls in the USA generally aren't biased. What has happened is that polls in the US don't handle last minute voter decisions very well. American polls tend to do a pretty good job in predicting who or what wins, but not by how much.
(06-25-2016 11:03 AM)Fitbud Wrote: [ -> ]if there is a silver lining in the Brexit vote, its that it will help HRC win the White House.
http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articl...ead-brexit
betting odds put the chance of remaining at 90 percent as the polls closed on Thursday
-- bloomberg
quite the contrary ...
REVENGE AGAINST THE NERDS
(06-25-2016 10:59 AM)green Wrote: [ -> ] (06-25-2016 10:51 AM)dawgitall Wrote: [ -> ] (06-25-2016 10:38 AM)green Wrote: [ -> ]Polls consistently underestimating right-wing support -- Cameron & Bibi, now Brexit. So if polls show Clinton up 5, could Trump be even?
-- Bill Kristol @BillKristol
RANDOM ACTS OF KINDNESS
Comparing British polling to that in the USA is apples and oranges. Underestimating right-wing support in USA polls is an urban legend. Polls are off sometimes but it isn't because of that.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/11/14...58158.html
Poll and poll averages generally understated Republican margins at the end of campaign 2014. We examine three theories that may explain why. This is HuffPollster for Friday, November 14, 2014.
-- huffingtonpost
URBAN OSCAR MEYER
You didn't read the whole article did you?
(06-25-2016 11:08 AM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote: [ -> ]However, the polls in the USA generally aren't biased. ... American polls tend to do a pretty good job in predicting who or what wins, but not by how much.
http://time.com/4067019/gallup-horse-race-polling/
Gallup has been the country's gold standard for horse-race election polling ever since its legendary founder, George Gallup, predicted Franklin Roosevelt's landslide reelection in 1936.
But after a bruising 2012 cycle, in which its polls were farther off than most of its competitors, Gallup told POLITICO it isn't planning any polls for the presidential primary horse race this cycle.
-- politico
when the granddaddy of polling throws in the towel ...
problems abound ...
CRAPSHOOT
(06-25-2016 11:21 AM)dawgitall Wrote: [ -> ] (06-25-2016 10:59 AM)green Wrote: [ -> ] (06-25-2016 10:51 AM)dawgitall Wrote: [ -> ] (06-25-2016 10:38 AM)green Wrote: [ -> ]Polls consistently underestimating right-wing support -- Cameron & Bibi, now Brexit. So if polls show Clinton up 5, could Trump be even?
-- Bill Kristol @BillKristol
RANDOM ACTS OF KINDNESS
Comparing British polling to that in the USA is apples and oranges. Underestimating right-wing support in USA polls is an urban legend. Polls are off sometimes but it isn't because of that.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/11/14...58158.html
Poll and poll averages generally understated Republican margins at the end of campaign 2014. We examine three theories that may explain why. This is HuffPollster for Friday, November 14, 2014.
-- huffingtonpost
URBAN OSCAR MEYER
You didn't read the whole article did you?
![[Image: tinfoil_hat.jpg]](http://newsbusters7.s3.amazonaws.com/images/2012/October/tinfoil_hat.jpg)
even a liberal rag like huffpost takes you to task ...
TIN FOIL HAT
(06-25-2016 11:23 AM)green Wrote: [ -> ] (06-25-2016 11:08 AM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote: [ -> ]However, the polls in the USA generally aren't biased. ... American polls tend to do a pretty good job in predicting who or what wins, but not by how much.
http://time.com/4067019/gallup-horse-race-polling/
Gallup has been the country's gold standard for horse-race election polling ever since its legendary founder, George Gallup, predicted Franklin Roosevelt's landslide reelection in 1936.
But after a bruising 2012 cycle, in which its polls were farther off than most of its competitors, Gallup told POLITICO it isn't planning any polls for the presidential primary horse race this cycle.
-- politico
when the granddaddy of polling throws in the towel ...
problems abound ...
CRAPSHOOT
Polls aren't prefect that is for sure. But not being perfect is different than always being wrong. They give us an imperfect snapshot in time.
(06-25-2016 11:14 AM)green Wrote: [ -> ] (06-25-2016 11:03 AM)Fitbud Wrote: [ -> ]if there is a silver lining in the Brexit vote, its that it will help HRC win the White House.
http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articl...ead-brexit
betting odds put the chance of remaining at 90 percent as the polls closed on Thursday
-- bloomberg
quite the contrary ...
REVENGE AGAINST THE NERDS
Give it a couple of weeks.
(06-25-2016 10:51 AM)dawgitall Wrote: [ -> ] (06-25-2016 10:38 AM)green Wrote: [ -> ]Polls consistently underestimating right-wing support -- Cameron & Bibi, now Brexit. So if polls show Clinton up 5, could Trump be even?
-- Bill Kristol @BillKristol
RANDOM ACTS OF KINDNESS
Comparing British polling to that in the USA is apples and oranges. Underestimating right-wing support in USA polls is an urban legend. Polls are off sometimes but it isn't because of that.
using polls is akin to brainwashing tactics.....
good luck this yeaR......
yaz gonna get your aRse handed to yaz.....
(06-25-2016 12:25 PM)green Wrote: [ -> ] (06-25-2016 11:37 AM)Fitbud Wrote: [ -> ] (06-25-2016 11:14 AM)green Wrote: [ -> ] (06-25-2016 11:03 AM)Fitbud Wrote: [ -> ]if there is a silver lining in the Brexit vote, its that it will help HRC win the White House.
http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articl...ead-brexit
betting odds put the chance of remaining at 90 percent as the polls closed on Thursday
-- bloomberg
quite the contrary ...
REVENGE AGAINST THE NERDS
Give it a couple of weeks.
![[Image: ClwRw9RUsAARdO7.jpg]](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ClwRw9RUsAARdO7.jpg)
http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2016/06/...e-winning/
even clinton concedes ...
THE WRITING'S ON THE WALL
Its smart for her to maintain some level of uncertainty about the election. Because she doesn't need far leftists saying "Trump is going to lose for sure - maybe I can vote for Stein without consequence". Or "I don't need to go all out here for HRC...she's got it in the bag"
(06-25-2016 10:51 AM)dawgitall Wrote: [ -> ] (06-25-2016 10:38 AM)green Wrote: [ -> ]Polls consistently underestimating right-wing support -- Cameron & Bibi, now Brexit. So if polls show Clinton up 5, could Trump be even?
-- Bill Kristol @BillKristol
RANDOM ACTS OF KINDNESS
Comparing British polling to that in the USA is apples and oranges. Underestimating right-wing support in USA polls is an urban legend. Polls are off sometimes but it isn't because of that.
Exit polls have skewed left since the 2000 election.
(06-25-2016 10:51 AM)dawgitall Wrote: [ -> ] (06-25-2016 10:38 AM)green Wrote: [ -> ]Polls consistently underestimating right-wing support -- Cameron & Bibi, now Brexit. So if polls show Clinton up 5, could Trump be even?
-- Bill Kristol @BillKristol
RANDOM ACTS OF KINDNESS
Comparing British polling to that in the USA is apples and oranges. Underestimating right-wing support in USA polls is an urban legend. Polls are off sometimes but it isn't because of that.
It is all about turnout. Bush did better than expected in 2004. Then, so did Obama in 2008. In 2012, polls were pretty accurate aside from Florida, where Romney was winning the polls. Trumpeters are going to show up and there are a lot more of them than are gung ho over Hillary. She'll need to make it by getting her soft supporters to the polls and by winning the undecideds, which will be a much larger portion than usual this time around. Hillary wins the cities, poor and rich. Trump wins the rural poor. The upper middle class, maybe the top 10-30%, will decide this one, both in the suburbs, small-medium sized cities, and the small town "rich". You know, Newcastle and Sunderland to compare to the Brits. Those are the folks that dependably vote but don't like either candidate. They'll show up for sure, but who will they vote for?
Sent from my XT1254 using Tapatalk
The article showed that in the 2014 election cycle polls missed the Republican vote for several possible reasons, not because of some pollster bias against the right. We could pick another year and show pollsters underestimating Dems, or women or whatever. They aren't perfect, but legitimate pollsters don't intentionally skew polls to favor one party or another. That is an urban legend.