Ill start this by saying its just conjecture, so no need for anyone to get their panties in a wad.
I tend to think the big 12 would be best off by adding 4 and I think if you look at it objectively, it would make sense.
ESPN/Fox have already agreed to go to 12 without dilution. The current contract Pays $20 million per team, so they knew going into this contract with the Big 12 that it would or could grow by $40 million. This is obviously an acceptable amount to them... but what 2 teams brings in that type of value. Maybe non, but 4 do.
Its also universially accepted that all p5 championship games have a value hovering around $20 million. Some have been higher but I cant find one that has been less. So at this point, the total cost is around $60 million.
Now add in the AAC. Do you think that ESPN would still want the AAC content if they were to take 4 teams? My conjecture is that ESPN already has more content than they can show, and moves many of our games to ESPN3 or sells it to a competitor. Taking 4 teams leaves them with just about the amount of content they would really show. So the savings of not signing the AAC and allowing them to go to Fox/CBS/NBC or whomever is around $24 million a year.
In total, thats about $84 million that has either been agreed to be spent or is currently being spent. This means, for the amount that they have agreed to that they can get 4 teams, pay them each about $20 million and have considerably more content then they would if they only signed 2 additional. It basically addresses the concern that no 2 teams are worth it....
but would the Big 12 expand and not make any additional money.... I doubt it. So my answer is simple. Dont.
Start off all 4 at $10 million a year and move up yearly. Over the next 10 years they would move up to equal shares, but that allows the Big 12 teams to make additional revenue and more than likely ESPN isnt going to actually pay that full $84 million.
The Big 12 gets what they want (money) and ESPN gets content.... and possibly can sign the Big 12 to an extension in the process.
Just my 2 cents.
There is a realignment board for the USF/UCF mistaken fantasies of being invited to the Big 12
(02-24-2016 12:13 PM)Pony94 Wrote: [ -> ]There is a realignment board for the USF/UCF mistaken fantasies of being invited to the Big 12
This fantasy even destroys the AAC and its TV contract as a by-product. lol, finally, a thread Bearcat#1 is actually going to like!
(02-24-2016 12:24 PM)Attackcoog Wrote: [ -> ] (02-24-2016 12:13 PM)Pony94 Wrote: [ -> ]There is a realignment board for the USF/UCF mistaken fantasies of being invited to the Big 12
This fantasy even destroys the AAC and its TV contract as a by-product. lol, finally, a thread Bearcat#1 is actually going to like!
they cannot expand without splitting the pie. The 20 million they get now is going to be cut on the next contract. Ratings show nobody is watching these games outside the fan bases of the two teams playing.
The Big12 probably just merges with the AAC but replaces Houston with Rice. Of course this is the only request Texas makes to process the deal.
(02-24-2016 12:54 PM)5018Calhoun Wrote: [ -> ]The Big12 probably just merges with the AAC but replaces Houston with Rice. Of course this is the only request Texas makes to process the deal.
LOL... You probably right... UT does NOT like to lose to Houston and will do whatever it takes just so they will never play Houston.
(02-24-2016 12:54 PM)5018Calhoun Wrote: [ -> ]The Big12 probably just merges with the AAC but replaces Houston with Rice. Of course this is the only request Texas makes to process the deal.
lol...That would be about right.
The case can be made for 4. But it isn't going to happen. odds are 50 50 at best they add 2. Boren seems to prefer BYU and Cincy. will that happen? Who knows. I will be shocked if UCF or USF went as #12.
(02-24-2016 03:02 PM)goodknightfl Wrote: [ -> ]The case can be made for 4. But it isn't going to happen. odds are 50 50 at best they add 2. Boren seems to prefer BYU and Cincy. will that happen? Who knows. I will be shocked if UCF or USF went as #12.
Is there not a realignment board for nonsense?
(02-24-2016 12:12 PM)mtmedlin Wrote: [ -> ]Ill start this by saying its just conjecture, so no need for anyone to get their panties in a wad.
I tend to think the big 12 would be best off by adding 4 and I think if you look at it objectively, it would make sense.
ESPN/Fox have already agreed to go to 12 without dilution. The current contract Pays $20 million per team, so they knew going into this contract with the Big 12 that it would or could grow by $40 million. This is obviously an acceptable amount to them... but what 2 teams brings in that type of value. Maybe non, but 4 do.
Its also universially accepted that all p5 championship games have a value hovering around $20 million. Some have been higher but I cant find one that has been less. So at this point, the total cost is around $60 million.
Now add in the AAC. Do you think that ESPN would still want the AAC content if they were to take 4 teams? My conjecture is that ESPN already has more content than they can show, and moves many of our games to ESPN3 or sells it to a competitor. Taking 4 teams leaves them with just about the amount of content they would really show. So the savings of not signing the AAC and allowing them to go to Fox/CBS/NBC or whomever is around $24 million a year.
In total, thats about $84 million that has either been agreed to be spent or is currently being spent. This means, for the amount that they have agreed to that they can get 4 teams, pay them each about $20 million and have considerably more content then they would if they only signed 2 additional. It basically addresses the concern that no 2 teams are worth it....
but would the Big 12 expand and not make any additional money.... I doubt it. So my answer is simple. Dont.
Start off all 4 at $10 million a year and move up yearly. Over the next 10 years they would move up to equal shares, but that allows the Big 12 teams to make additional revenue and more than likely ESPN isnt going to actually pay that full $84 million.
The Big 12 gets what they want (money) and ESPN gets content.... and possibly can sign the Big 12 to an extension in the process.
Just my 2 cents.
Does your Big 12 expansion plan happen to include USF by chance? Cheers!
(02-24-2016 09:07 PM)billybobby777 Wrote: [ -> ] (02-24-2016 12:12 PM)mtmedlin Wrote: [ -> ]Ill start this by saying its just conjecture, so no need for anyone to get their panties in a wad.
I tend to think the big 12 would be best off by adding 4 and I think if you look at it objectively, it would make sense.
ESPN/Fox have already agreed to go to 12 without dilution. The current contract Pays $20 million per team, so they knew going into this contract with the Big 12 that it would or could grow by $40 million. This is obviously an acceptable amount to them... but what 2 teams brings in that type of value. Maybe non, but 4 do.
Its also universially accepted that all p5 championship games have a value hovering around $20 million. Some have been higher but I cant find one that has been less. So at this point, the total cost is around $60 million.
Now add in the AAC. Do you think that ESPN would still want the AAC content if they were to take 4 teams? My conjecture is that ESPN already has more content than they can show, and moves many of our games to ESPN3 or sells it to a competitor. Taking 4 teams leaves them with just about the amount of content they would really show. So the savings of not signing the AAC and allowing them to go to Fox/CBS/NBC or whomever is around $24 million a year.
In total, thats about $84 million that has either been agreed to be spent or is currently being spent. This means, for the amount that they have agreed to that they can get 4 teams, pay them each about $20 million and have considerably more content then they would if they only signed 2 additional. It basically addresses the concern that no 2 teams are worth it....
but would the Big 12 expand and not make any additional money.... I doubt it. So my answer is simple. Dont.
Start off all 4 at $10 million a year and move up yearly. Over the next 10 years they would move up to equal shares, but that allows the Big 12 teams to make additional revenue and more than likely ESPN isnt going to actually pay that full $84 million.
The Big 12 gets what they want (money) and ESPN gets content.... and possibly can sign the Big 12 to an extension in the process.
Just my 2 cents.
Does your Big 12 expansion plan happen to include USF by chance? Cheers!
Of course Id prefer that, but theres alot of teams that could fill those spots. I wouldnt be shocked at ALL if Air Force and Navy get a look if they go to 14.
People forget that Air Force turned down the Big 12. They actually had an invite. Tulane was on the short list too and was heavily vetted.
If I were to guess, I think Cinci is the ONLY team that is 100% in the two for 11,12. #12 I would guess would be either Uconn or BYU..... 13 and 14 all depends on the analystics and if the Big 12 goes with a network.
If theres a network then it will be market driven. USF and UCF both have a good chance there, but remember that Navy actually has a damn nice market share, Temple is sitting in one of the best markets the AAC has. If they wanted overlap to help secure a combo of NY, NJ, Philly and Maryland, then a combo of Cinci, Uconn, Temple and Navy would make alot of sense. Amongst those four I think there might be enough alumni to get a Big 12 network into all those markets, which financially would make sense.
More than anything, this post wasnt about who will get in but more so that the people saying that the big 12 financially couldnt add four without dilution are wrong. It can easily be done and done in a way that the TV partners save money, the Big 12 members get some extra cash and 4 teams are added, which will give the t partners even more inventory for the money they have promised... its a win win all the way around.
(02-25-2016 10:32 AM)mtmedlin Wrote: [ -> ] (02-24-2016 09:07 PM)billybobby777 Wrote: [ -> ] (02-24-2016 12:12 PM)mtmedlin Wrote: [ -> ]Ill start this by saying its just conjecture, so no need for anyone to get their panties in a wad.
I tend to think the big 12 would be best off by adding 4 and I think if you look at it objectively, it would make sense.
ESPN/Fox have already agreed to go to 12 without dilution. The current contract Pays $20 million per team, so they knew going into this contract with the Big 12 that it would or could grow by $40 million. This is obviously an acceptable amount to them... but what 2 teams brings in that type of value. Maybe non, but 4 do.
Its also universially accepted that all p5 championship games have a value hovering around $20 million. Some have been higher but I cant find one that has been less. So at this point, the total cost is around $60 million.
Now add in the AAC. Do you think that ESPN would still want the AAC content if they were to take 4 teams? My conjecture is that ESPN already has more content than they can show, and moves many of our games to ESPN3 or sells it to a competitor. Taking 4 teams leaves them with just about the amount of content they would really show. So the savings of not signing the AAC and allowing them to go to Fox/CBS/NBC or whomever is around $24 million a year.
In total, thats about $84 million that has either been agreed to be spent or is currently being spent. This means, for the amount that they have agreed to that they can get 4 teams, pay them each about $20 million and have considerably more content then they would if they only signed 2 additional. It basically addresses the concern that no 2 teams are worth it....
but would the Big 12 expand and not make any additional money.... I doubt it. So my answer is simple. Dont.
Start off all 4 at $10 million a year and move up yearly. Over the next 10 years they would move up to equal shares, but that allows the Big 12 teams to make additional revenue and more than likely ESPN isnt going to actually pay that full $84 million.
The Big 12 gets what they want (money) and ESPN gets content.... and possibly can sign the Big 12 to an extension in the process.
Just my 2 cents.
Does your Big 12 expansion plan happen to include USF by chance? Cheers!
Of course Id prefer that, but theres alot of teams that could fill those spots. I wouldnt be shocked at ALL if Air Force and Navy get a look if they go to 14.
People forget that Air Force turned down the Big 12. They actually had an invite. Tulane was on the short list too and was heavily vetted.
If I were to guess, I think Cinci is the ONLY team that is 100% in the two for 11,12. #12 I would guess would be either Uconn or BYU..... 13 and 14 all depends on the analystics and if the Big 12 goes with a network.
If theres a network then it will be market driven. USF and UCF both have a good chance there, but remember that Navy actually has a damn nice market share, Temple is sitting in one of the best markets the AAC has. If they wanted overlap to help secure a combo of NY, NJ, Philly and Maryland, then a combo of Cinci, Uconn, Temple and Navy would make alot of sense. Amongst those four I think there might be enough alumni to get a Big 12 network into all those markets, which financially would make sense.
More than anything, this post wasnt about who will get in but more so that the people saying that the big 12 financially couldnt add four without dilution are wrong. It can easily be done and done in a way that the TV partners save money, the Big 12 members get some extra cash and 4 teams are added, which will give the t partners even more inventory for the money they have promised... its a win win all the way around.
FYI - I think you need to change your sig. USF isn't even top three in the Director's Cup.
http://grfx.cstv.com/photos/schools/nacd...fJan14.pdf
(02-25-2016 10:35 AM)Hank Schrader Wrote: [ -> ] (02-25-2016 10:32 AM)mtmedlin Wrote: [ -> ][quote='billybobby777' pid='13035736' dateline='1456366030']
[quote='mtmedlin' pid='13034150' dateline='1456333929']
FYI - I think you need to change your sig. USF isn't even top three in the Director's Cup.
http://grfx.cstv.com/photos/schools/nacd...fJan14.pdf
Way to stay on topic... the season for this years cup isnt over. well wait and see.
(02-24-2016 12:12 PM)mtmedlin Wrote: [ -> ]Ill start this by saying its just conjecture, so no need for anyone to get their panties in a wad.
I tend to think the big 12 would be best off by adding 4 and I think if you look at it objectively, it would make sense.
ESPN/Fox have already agreed to go to 12 without dilution. The current contract Pays $20 million per team, so they knew going into this contract with the Big 12 that it would or could grow by $40 million. This is obviously an acceptable amount to them... but what 2 teams brings in that type of value. Maybe non, but 4 do.
Where does it say that ESPN agreed to go to 12 without dilution? It syas the contract is for roughly $200 million a year.The math is simple, and the reason UT will not go to 12 unless absolutely forced to. Add more teams and the $20 million decreases because of the dilution.
Also, remember that the B12 is a basketball power in addition to football. Not many schools hoping to move up to the P5 can contribute in both football and basketball. If not for basketball, Kansas would add nothing to the B12, for example.
http://espn.go.com/college-sports/story/...c-espn-fox
Conjecture-Big 12, the Case for four midgets joining the carnival. Fixed it.
(02-25-2016 10:46 AM)sfink16 Wrote: [ -> ] (02-24-2016 12:12 PM)mtmedlin Wrote: [ -> ]Ill start this by saying its just conjecture, so no need for anyone to get their panties in a wad.
I tend to think the big 12 would be best off by adding 4 and I think if you look at it objectively, it would make sense.
ESPN/Fox have already agreed to go to 12 without dilution. The current contract Pays $20 million per team, so they knew going into this contract with the Big 12 that it would or could grow by $40 million. This is obviously an acceptable amount to them... but what 2 teams brings in that type of value. Maybe non, but 4 do.
Where does it say that ESPN agreed to go to 12 without dilution? It syas the contract is for roughly $200 million a year.The math is simple, and the reason UT will not go to 12 unless absolutely forced to. Add more teams and the $20 million decreases because of the dilution.
Also, remember that the B12 is a basketball power in addition to football. Not many schools hoping to move up to the P5 can contribute in both football and basketball. If not for basketball, Kansas would add nothing to the B12, for example.
http://espn.go.com/college-sports/story/...c-espn-fox
https://twitter.com/ChuckCarltonDMN/stat...=twsrc^tfw
He was the first to break the info but it came straight from Bowlsby mouth that when they signed the media rights deal that it included a clause for per rata expansion.
My point was that ESPN and Fox may not like 2 candidates because they dont bring in enough value, but if you do my plan, it gives them twice as much content for the same price they already agreed to or are paying.
Just makes it more financially feasible.
good stuff