I see Stony Brook locked up at least a tie for the regular season AE crown. Do they finally have what it takes to get into the tournament, or does the NIT have its first named participant?
UNCW and SDSU are close to their regular season champ titles.
RPI's got SDSU at 48, Stony at 66, and UNCW at 71.
Kenpom's got them with SBU at 54 and the other two at 65 (UNCW) and 69 (SDSU).
When the rest of your conference lets you down...
What a misleading thread title...
(02-15-2016 12:48 AM)_C2_ Wrote: [ -> ]What a misleading thread title...
I didn't want to commit to a thread about conference champions, but I did want to remark how the fields (NCAA and NIT) were starting to assemble.
These three teams, though...on their current trajectory, if they don't win their conference titles, are on the bubble. I think it's interesting that possibility already exists weeks out.
And some of these conference races...were they ever close?
none of those teams if they lose in their conference tourney will be in the NCAA tourney. They aren't on the bubble at all....
Yeah, the thread title would be more helpful if it indicated that the topic is teams that might win their conference regular season but not get an NCAA at-large bid if they fail to win their conference tournament.
Probably should wait until the end of this month before firming up conclusions on these teams, but the track record of committee selections is that it's very difficult to get an at-large bid if a team doesn't have many wins over top-100 teams, and obviously top-50 wins are even better. There have been teams left out with 17-1 or 16-2 conference records.
(02-18-2016 03:26 PM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ]none of those teams if they lose in their conference tourney will be in the NCAA tourney. They aren't on the bubble at all....
I'll believe MWC being a one-bid when I see it if SDSU doesn't win the auto. Way too many gift bids to that conference the last decade. Numbers don't put them at the front of anything, but they aren't non-starters, either.
You're probably right about Stony now, but they hadn't played Albany when I started the thread. Playing in a bad conference, even winning out, messes up the numbers, but if SBU gone untouched until the tournament final, again, the numbers put them into the conversation.
IIRC, too, isn't this year's selection committee less dominated by major conference representation?
The committee is more and more into advanced metrics. If SDSU loses, it's going to be a bad loss. 5-6 OOC record, #70 Ken Pom rating. Their resume is MUCH worse than Colorado St team who got left out last year....