Trump 27, Rubio 17, Cruz 16, Carson 16, Bush 5, Fiorina 3, Huckabee 1, Christie 2, Kasich 2, Paul 2, Graham 0, Pataki 0, Santorum 0
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling...45hkpp.pdf
Clearly time to cut these debates to 4.
That seems to be the highest Rubio has been yet. Maybe Cruz too. Obviously Carson is fading - I still can't figure out how Trump hasn't faded yet. I still think it's going to be a battle royale between Cruz and Rubio in the end.
You missed the more significant part of that poll. Namely, how Clinton (and even Sanders) have improved significantly in the head-to-head match-ups against some of the Republican front-runners. The GOP has to be worried about that. I still think the Trump blockbusters are going to be brought out shortly as the longer he leads, the less chance they have of winning in a year.
(12-02-2015 08:34 AM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote: [ -> ]That seems to be the highest Rubio has been yet. Maybe Cruz too. Obviously Carson is fading - I still can't figure out how Trump hasn't faded yet. I still think it's going to be a battle royale between Cruz and Rubio in the end.
You missed the more significant part of that poll. Namely, how Clinton (and even Sanders) have improved significantly in the head-to-head match-ups against some of the Republican front-runners. The GOP has to be worried about that. I still think the Trump blockbusters are going to be brought out shortly as the longer he leads, the less chance they have of winning in a year.
Trump won't fade much. Most of his 27% is extremely loyal and passionate. If you look at the internals of the poll on page 4, Trump leads in support that has definitely decided. 46% of his support made up their mind while just 53% might change. This is followed by Cruz (33/65), Carson (26/71), and last Rubio (23/75). Despite the weakest of the support, I do think Rubio will be there because he is so good at this and I think it will come down to a 3 way race between Trump, Cruz, and Rubio. Iowa will come down to Cruz and Trump and New Hampshire will come down to Rubio and Trump; however, if Trump wins both I think it is either over or Romney will get in.
(12-02-2015 08:45 AM)EverRespect Wrote: [ -> ] (12-02-2015 08:34 AM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote: [ -> ]That seems to be the highest Rubio has been yet. Maybe Cruz too. Obviously Carson is fading - I still can't figure out how Trump hasn't faded yet. I still think it's going to be a battle royale between Cruz and Rubio in the end.
You missed the more significant part of that poll. Namely, how Clinton (and even Sanders) have improved significantly in the head-to-head match-ups against some of the Republican front-runners. The GOP has to be worried about that. I still think the Trump blockbusters are going to be brought out shortly as the longer he leads, the less chance they have of winning in a year.
Trump won't fade much. Most of his 27% is extremely loyal and passionate. If you look at the internals of the poll on page 4, Trump leads in support that has definitely decided. 46% of his support made up their mind while just 53% might change. This is followed by Cruz (33/65), Carson (26/71), and last Rubio (23/75). Despite the weakest of the support, I do think Rubio will be there because he is so good at this and I think it will come down to a 3 way race between Trump, Cruz, and Rubio. Iowa will come down to Cruz and Trump and New Hampshire will come down to Rubio and Trump; however, if Trump wins both I think it is either over or Romney will get in.
I think its going to be a long slog as long as Trump doesn't quit and decide to go independent and assure Hillary's win.
What people say and what people do are different things. Except in Iowa-they don't really think about what they are doing when they vote. New Hampshire and South Carolina are where we get a feel about what will happen.
Its too early to count out Bush or even Kasich. I think Christie and Fiorina never seriously had a chance. Paul has been trumped by Trump and Cruz. Romney will not get in and will not get nominated.
(12-02-2015 09:59 AM)bullet Wrote: [ -> ] (12-02-2015 08:45 AM)EverRespect Wrote: [ -> ] (12-02-2015 08:34 AM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote: [ -> ]That seems to be the highest Rubio has been yet. Maybe Cruz too. Obviously Carson is fading - I still can't figure out how Trump hasn't faded yet. I still think it's going to be a battle royale between Cruz and Rubio in the end.
You missed the more significant part of that poll. Namely, how Clinton (and even Sanders) have improved significantly in the head-to-head match-ups against some of the Republican front-runners. The GOP has to be worried about that. I still think the Trump blockbusters are going to be brought out shortly as the longer he leads, the less chance they have of winning in a year.
Trump won't fade much. Most of his 27% is extremely loyal and passionate. If you look at the internals of the poll on page 4, Trump leads in support that has definitely decided. 46% of his support made up their mind while just 53% might change. This is followed by Cruz (33/65), Carson (26/71), and last Rubio (23/75). Despite the weakest of the support, I do think Rubio will be there because he is so good at this and I think it will come down to a 3 way race between Trump, Cruz, and Rubio. Iowa will come down to Cruz and Trump and New Hampshire will come down to Rubio and Trump; however, if Trump wins both I think it is either over or Romney will get in.
I think its going to be a long slog as long as Trump doesn't quit and decide to go independent and assure Hillary's win.
What people say and what people do are different things. Except in Iowa-they don't really think about what they are doing when they vote. New Hampshire and South Carolina are where we get a feel about what will happen.
Its too early to count out Bush or even Kasich. I think Christie and Fiorina never seriously had a chance. Paul has been trumped by Trump and Cruz. Romney will not get in and will not get nominated.
You are correct. Bush could feasibly be in the running to pick up Rubio's soft support and contend if Rubio were to falter. I am counting Kasich out, however.
I just don't see it happening for Bush. Rubio is too slick.
(12-02-2015 10:04 AM)EverRespect Wrote: [ -> ] (12-02-2015 09:59 AM)bullet Wrote: [ -> ] (12-02-2015 08:45 AM)EverRespect Wrote: [ -> ] (12-02-2015 08:34 AM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote: [ -> ]That seems to be the highest Rubio has been yet. Maybe Cruz too. Obviously Carson is fading - I still can't figure out how Trump hasn't faded yet. I still think it's going to be a battle royale between Cruz and Rubio in the end.
You missed the more significant part of that poll. Namely, how Clinton (and even Sanders) have improved significantly in the head-to-head match-ups against some of the Republican front-runners. The GOP has to be worried about that. I still think the Trump blockbusters are going to be brought out shortly as the longer he leads, the less chance they have of winning in a year.
Trump won't fade much. Most of his 27% is extremely loyal and passionate. If you look at the internals of the poll on page 4, Trump leads in support that has definitely decided. 46% of his support made up their mind while just 53% might change. This is followed by Cruz (33/65), Carson (26/71), and last Rubio (23/75). Despite the weakest of the support, I do think Rubio will be there because he is so good at this and I think it will come down to a 3 way race between Trump, Cruz, and Rubio. Iowa will come down to Cruz and Trump and New Hampshire will come down to Rubio and Trump; however, if Trump wins both I think it is either over or Romney will get in.
I think its going to be a long slog as long as Trump doesn't quit and decide to go independent and assure Hillary's win.
What people say and what people do are different things. Except in Iowa-they don't really think about what they are doing when they vote. New Hampshire and South Carolina are where we get a feel about what will happen.
Its too early to count out Bush or even Kasich. I think Christie and Fiorina never seriously had a chance. Paul has been trumped by Trump and Cruz. Romney will not get in and will not get nominated.
You are correct. Bush could feasibly be in the running to pick up Rubio's soft support and contend if Rubio were to falter. I am counting Kasich out, however.
I just don't see it happening for Bush. Rubio is too slick.
That's Rubio's weakness. He actually seems to be stagnating after his initial surge. If he gets to be a threat to Cruz or Trump, they will start attacking. For now, Trump, Carson and Cruz are focusing on each other.
Rubio has gotten a nice bump after each of the debates but fails to advance the ball any further in between.
IMO Carson will continue to falter. He has courted a number of the evangelicals who I think will ultimately align themselves with Cruz once their guy is out of the picture (Cruz will also get the small number who support Huckabee, Santorum and Paul).
(12-02-2015 10:17 AM)CliftonAve Wrote: [ -> ]Rubio has gotten a nice bump after each of the debates but fails to advance the ball any further in between.
IMO Carson will continue to falter. He has courted a number of the evangelicals who I think will ultimately align themselves with Cruz once their guy is out of the picture (Cruz will also get the small number who support Huckabee, Santorum and Paul).
I don't see Carson dropping out.
(12-02-2015 10:17 AM)CliftonAve Wrote: [ -> ]Rubio has gotten a nice bump after each of the debates but fails to advance the ball any further in between.
IMO Carson will continue to falter. He has courted a number of the evangelicals who I think will ultimately align themselves with Cruz once their guy is out of the picture (Cruz will also get the small number who support Huckabee, Santorum and Paul).
All of the evangelical support is hurting Carson - along with his gaffs. He's unfit for office IMHO. So is Trump and Cruz. The shame is that Paul was the best one of the group, but he can't campaign worth sh!t and he's not polished enough like Rubio.
(12-02-2015 10:04 AM)EverRespect Wrote: [ -> ] (12-02-2015 09:59 AM)bullet Wrote: [ -> ] (12-02-2015 08:45 AM)EverRespect Wrote: [ -> ] (12-02-2015 08:34 AM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote: [ -> ]That seems to be the highest Rubio has been yet. Maybe Cruz too. Obviously Carson is fading - I still can't figure out how Trump hasn't faded yet. I still think it's going to be a battle royale between Cruz and Rubio in the end.
You missed the more significant part of that poll. Namely, how Clinton (and even Sanders) have improved significantly in the head-to-head match-ups against some of the Republican front-runners. The GOP has to be worried about that. I still think the Trump blockbusters are going to be brought out shortly as the longer he leads, the less chance they have of winning in a year.
Trump won't fade much. Most of his 27% is extremely loyal and passionate. If you look at the internals of the poll on page 4, Trump leads in support that has definitely decided. 46% of his support made up their mind while just 53% might change. This is followed by Cruz (33/65), Carson (26/71), and last Rubio (23/75). Despite the weakest of the support, I do think Rubio will be there because he is so good at this and I think it will come down to a 3 way race between Trump, Cruz, and Rubio. Iowa will come down to Cruz and Trump and New Hampshire will come down to Rubio and Trump; however, if Trump wins both I think it is either over or Romney will get in.
I think its going to be a long slog as long as Trump doesn't quit and decide to go independent and assure Hillary's win.
What people say and what people do are different things. Except in Iowa-they don't really think about what they are doing when they vote. New Hampshire and South Carolina are where we get a feel about what will happen.
Its too early to count out Bush or even Kasich. I think Christie and Fiorina never seriously had a chance. Paul has been trumped by Trump and Cruz. Romney will not get in and will not get nominated.
You are correct. Bush could feasibly be in the running to pick up Rubio's soft support and contend if Rubio were to falter. I am counting Kasich out, however.
I just don't see it happening for Bush. Rubio is too slick.
I think that Kasich's plan is to hang around and hope that there is a brokered convention (I think you need 50% of the delegates to garner the nomination). Problem for him is that I think Rubio would get the support of the machine and the big money.
Any brokered convention would be dominated by Trump. He is the master of the Art of the Deal, the 2nd best book in the world, behind only the bible.
If Kasich hangs around, its for VP.