CSNbbs

I still think Ely's pretty good.
But gracious he has the worst cold streaks of any QB I've ever seen.
Can do nothing but throw high for 10 passes in a row.
I get that he was getting some pressure tonight but figure a few of the over throw would be closer.

I'm not gonna say he is the problem. But this evening he wasn't making any clutch plays either. And big time performers rise to the occasion.

(11-04-2015 12:30 AM)owen Wrote: [ -> ]I still think Ely's pretty good.
But gracious he has the worst cold streaks of any QB I've ever seen.
Can do nothing but throw high for 10 passes in a row.
I get that he was getting some pressure tonight but figure a few of the over throw would be closer.

I'm not gonna say he is the problem. But this evening he wasn't making any clutch plays either. And big time performers rise to the occasion.

Eh...not as big a loss if he doesn't get another season from the NCAA. I'm not sure how this late in the season you can have a QB and receivers so badly NOT on the same page regarding pass routes or where the ball will be thrown. Do they not practice? In terms of being "clutch", Ely got outplayed by Northern's RS freshman. That was the definition of clutch. Heck, Dwight Macon played better last season at QB against Northern than Ely did.

I think Macon was 9/14 last year against NIU.

Ely is 73rd in FBS in QB rating
Only 5 FBS QBs with greater than 200 pass attempts this year have lower completion percentage than Ely. There are 78 QBs in FBS with >200 pass attempts. Not good!

(11-04-2015 12:47 AM)PittRocket Wrote: [ -> ]I think Macon was 9/14 last year against NIU.

Ely is 73rd in FBS in QB rating
Only 5 FBS QBs with greater than 200 pass attempts this year have lower completion percentage than Ely. There are 78 QBs in FBS with >200 pass attempts. Not good!

But Macon could also run...something Ely can't do.

The best part is that we heard all year about how the only reason NIU won last year was because you played with your WR/QB. Now NIU goes out and beats you with our 4th string, RS FR QB who had only thrown 5 collegiate passes. And did it minus our 2nd best WR. That makes this just a little bit sweeter.

Also, why on earth didn't you just keep pounding the ball?

Agreed, we have seen him play better for sure. Personally, I was a Woodside backer, but I trusted the coaches on their decision to start Ely. I haven't started to second guess this until tonight. His inability to run really hurts sometimes. We just need to run the ball more or use short passes to get the ball to our playmakers. We seem to think we need to throw it down field often to open things up, and then get caught up doing it when we would be better off keeping it safe. If your QB is struggling on a given night, stop doing it!

Macon threw for 65% completion percentage against NIU. Ely's was 45%

Having the mobility of a cinder block to bail him out when coverage is tight and/or his accuracy is off is a pretty significant downside. Byron Leftwich and Ben Roethlisberger aside, most successful MAC QB's could keep defenses honest with their legs.

Of course our receivers drop plenty of balls that D1 receivers shouldn't drop.

(11-04-2015 12:50 AM)DogPoundNorth Wrote: [ -> ]The best part is that we heard all year about how the only reason NIU won last year was because you played with your WR/QB. Now NIU goes out and beats you with our 4th string, RS FR QB who had only thrown 5 collegiate passes. And did it minus our 2nd best WR. That makes this just a little bit sweeter.

Also, why on earth didn't you just keep pounding the ball?

You clearly haven't met our offensive coordinator...he's our head coach's best friend. Might explain how he not only got the job but has managed to keep it so far. Why we don't go to a 2-back offense is beyond me...I guess we think we can throw the ball...

Too many TFL's on running plays. That never happened last year. Very common this year. O-Line still a work in progress. 1st and goal from the 1 and it takes 4 rushing attempts to get it in. Then last week stopped twice on 4th & <1 vs. UMass. "Just Pound It" doesn't work this year. A little more creativity wouldn't hurt.

(11-04-2015 12:54 AM)bcunn3128 Wrote: [ -> ]

(11-04-2015 12:50 AM)DogPoundNorth Wrote: [ -> ]The best part is that we heard all year about how the only reason NIU won last year was because you played with your WR/QB. Now NIU goes out and beats you with our 4th string, RS FR QB who had only thrown 5 collegiate passes. And did it minus our 2nd best WR. That makes this just a little bit sweeter.

Also, why on earth didn't you just keep pounding the ball?

You clearly haven't met our offensive coordinator...he's our head coach's best friend. Might explain how he not only got the job but has managed to keep it so far. Why we don't go to a 2-back offense is beyond me...I guess we think we can throw the ball...

Exactly!!! Where has the 2 back offense gone???

(11-04-2015 01:00 AM)therockets046 Wrote: [ -> ]Too many TFL's on running plays. That never happened last year. Very common this year.

Nope, not really. Had 5 negative yardage plays last night ... the most all season. 1 was a sack, 1 was a bad snap, and 1 was when Ely ran out of bounds when he couldn't find a receiver. Only 2 real negative running plays.
Averaging just over 3 negative yardage plays per game this season, a number of which were due to bad snaps, and not failures of the OL blocking.

In 2014, we averaged just over 4 negative yardage plays per game.

(11-04-2015 08:02 PM)Rocket A Wrote: [ -> ]

(11-04-2015 12:54 AM)bcunn3128 Wrote: [ -> ]

(11-04-2015 12:50 AM)DogPoundNorth Wrote: [ -> ]The best part is that we heard all year about how the only reason NIU won last year was because you played with your WR/QB. Now NIU goes out and beats you with our 4th string, RS FR QB who had only thrown 5 collegiate passes. And did it minus our 2nd best WR. That makes this just a little bit sweeter.

Also, why on earth didn't you just keep pounding the ball?

You clearly haven't met our offensive coordinator...he's our head coach's best friend. Might explain how he not only got the job but has managed to keep it so far. Why we don't go to a 2-back offense is beyond me...I guess we think we can throw the ball...

Exactly!!! Where has the 2 back offense gone???

We haven't run a 2 back offense in years and years. Very few teams run that anymore in college or the NFL.

This offense traditionally uses the QB read-option as the 2nd running back, but they haven't been using Ely that way this season. And I don't think that is necessarily because they don't think Ely can run, but rather to protect his health due to the multiple braces he still wears. Ely had 40 positive rushing yards in 1+ games before getting hurt last season.

This year they are still using a read option though ... the quick 3-5 yard throws to Jones or Russell are often option passes. The QB reads whether the CB is playing far off the receiver. If so he pulls the ball from the RB and takes the easy 3-5 yard gain. Of course the WR has to read it to and sit for the pass. It's considered kind of a supplement to the running game. Ely has been very good at reading that and making the right choice when that throw is available all season. The pass to Russel late in the game was one of those, when Ely properly read that the CB backpedaled 10 yards off the line just before the snap. Unfortunately it didn't connect. Was the correct read though.

(11-04-2015 09:14 PM)northcoastRocket Wrote: [ -> ]

(11-04-2015 01:00 AM)therockets046 Wrote: [ -> ]Too many TFL's on running plays. That never happened last year. Very common this year.

Nope, not really. Had 5 negative yardage plays last night ... the most all season. 1 was a sack, 1 was a bad snap, and 1 was when Ely ran out of bounds when he couldn't find a receiver. Only 2 real negative running plays.
Averaging just over 3 negative yardage plays per game this season, a number of which were due to bad snaps, and not failures of the OL blocking.

In 2014, we averaged just over 4 negative yardage plays per game.

I didn't want to have to revisit this debacle, but I looked back at all our drives that did not end in TD's to see how the drives stalled.

Drive 1: Turnover on Downs (5yd pass, inc. pass X3)
Drive 2: TD
Drive 3: TD
Drive 4: FG (1yd run, inc, 5yd run, FG)
Drive 5: Fumble (on 1st&10)
Drive 6: Punt (1yd run, 1yd pass, inc, fake punt 18yd run)
Drive 6 (cont'd): (4yd run, 2yd run, inc, punt)
Drive 7: Punt (3yd run, 2yd run, inc, punt--of 9 yards)
Drive 8: INT (on 1st & 10)
--halftime--
Drive 9: Punt (6yd run, -2yd run, 4yd pass, punt)
Drive 10: Punt (2yd run, -3yd sack, 2yd run, punt)
Drive 11: TD (4 rushing attempts to gain 1 yard)
Drive 12: FG (2yd run, 6yd run, 1yd run, FG)
Drive 13: Miss FG (1yd run, inc, inc, FG missed)
Drive 14: INT (on 1st & 10)

Maybe "TFL" was a bad term for it, since I was going on emotions and gut feelings instead of actual stats last night, but 7 of our 14 drives stalled when we had ineffective rushing attempts on 1st or 2nd down (it happened twice on Drive 6 but we bailed ourselves out the first time with the very gutsy fake punt play that unfortunately was the last time we saw any sign of a "you can't stop us" attitude from this team). "Just Pound It" doesn't always work with this team, although lack of creativity in the run game, and a QB that did very little to bail out the run game are definitely other matters to consider as well.

I think with our young line, having a QB that isn't generally making plays that have hurt us has been quite effective.
Last night for 2 1/2 quarters though he couldn't hit the broad side of a barn.
Difference in being undefeated and totally deflated and having a fanbase contemplating jumping off bridges.

(11-04-2015 09:27 PM)northcoastRocket Wrote: [ -> ]

(11-04-2015 08:02 PM)Rocket A Wrote: [ -> ]

(11-04-2015 12:54 AM)bcunn3128 Wrote: [ -> ]

(11-04-2015 12:50 AM)DogPoundNorth Wrote: [ -> ]The best part is that we heard all year about how the only reason NIU won last year was because you played with your WR/QB. Now NIU goes out and beats you with our 4th string, RS FR QB who had only thrown 5 collegiate passes. And did it minus our 2nd best WR. That makes this just a little bit sweeter.

Also, why on earth didn't you just keep pounding the ball?

You clearly haven't met our offensive coordinator...he's our head coach's best friend. Might explain how he not only got the job but has managed to keep it so far. Why we don't go to a 2-back offense is beyond me...I guess we think we can throw the ball...

Exactly!!! Where has the 2 back offense gone???

We haven't run a 2 back offense in years and years. Very few teams run that anymore in college or the NFL.

This offense traditionally uses the QB read-option as the 2nd running back, but they haven't been using Ely that way this season. And I don't think that is necessarily because they don't think Ely can run, but rather to protect his health due to the multiple braces he still wears. Ely had 40 positive rushing yards in 1+ games before getting hurt last season.

This year they are still using a read option though ... the quick 3-5 yard throws to Jones or Russell are often option passes. The QB reads whether the CB is playing far off the receiver. If so he pulls the ball from the RB and takes the easy 3-5 yard gain. Of course the WR has to read it to and sit for the pass. It's considered kind of a supplement to the running game. Ely has been very good at reading that and making the right choice when that throw is available all season. The pass to Russel late in the game was one of those, when Ely properly read that the CB backpedaled 10 yards off the line just before the snap. Unfortunately it didn't connect. Was the correct read though.

I am not talking about a 2 back offense with a fullback and tailback, I am talking about a 2 back backfield with 2 tailbacks. Remember the offense with Adonis Thomas, Morgan Williams, and David Fluellen, often in 2 back sets. You can have a little misdirection, swing passes to either side, a little intrigue with who is getting the ball since Ely cant run. Where have the throws to the tailback gone? Remember Flu's game at Missouri?!?!?! There is no jet sweep, end around, reverse in this offense.

(11-05-2015 05:21 PM)Rocket A Wrote: [ -> ]

(11-04-2015 09:27 PM)northcoastRocket Wrote: [ -> ]

(11-04-2015 08:02 PM)Rocket A Wrote: [ -> ]

(11-04-2015 12:54 AM)bcunn3128 Wrote: [ -> ]

(11-04-2015 12:50 AM)DogPoundNorth Wrote: [ -> ]The best part is that we heard all year about how the only reason NIU won last year was because you played with your WR/QB. Now NIU goes out and beats you with our 4th string, RS FR QB who had only thrown 5 collegiate passes. And did it minus our 2nd best WR. That makes this just a little bit sweeter.

Also, why on earth didn't you just keep pounding the ball?

You clearly haven't met our offensive coordinator...he's our head coach's best friend. Might explain how he not only got the job but has managed to keep it so far. Why we don't go to a 2-back offense is beyond me...I guess we think we can throw the ball...

Exactly!!! Where has the 2 back offense gone???

We haven't run a 2 back offense in years and years. Very few teams run that anymore in college or the NFL.

This offense traditionally uses the QB read-option as the 2nd running back, but they haven't been using Ely that way this season. And I don't think that is necessarily because they don't think Ely can run, but rather to protect his health due to the multiple braces he still wears. Ely had 40 positive rushing yards in 1+ games before getting hurt last season.

This year they are still using a read option though ... the quick 3-5 yard throws to Jones or Russell are often option passes. The QB reads whether the CB is playing far off the receiver. If so he pulls the ball from the RB and takes the easy 3-5 yard gain. Of course the WR has to read it to and sit for the pass. It's considered kind of a supplement to the running game. Ely has been very good at reading that and making the right choice when that throw is available all season. The pass to Russel late in the game was one of those, when Ely properly read that the CB backpedaled 10 yards off the line just before the snap. Unfortunately it didn't connect. Was the correct read though.

I am not talking about a 2 back offense with a fullback and tailback, I am talking about a 2 back backfield with 2 tailbacks. Remember the offense with Adonis Thomas, Morgan Williams, and David Fluellen, often in 2 back sets. You can have a little misdirection, swing passes to either side, a little intrigue with who is getting the ball since Ely cant run. Where have the throws to the tailback gone? Remember Flu's game at Missouri?!?!?! There is no jet sweep, end around, reverse in this offense.

This has been one of my biggest frustrations as well! Not once have we had Hunt and Swanson on the field at the same time. It would be very difficult for defenses to defend. There are so many creative plays they could use with both guys out there. Instead of focusing the offense around our strengths, we continue to focus our offense around a group of receivers that can't catch and a QB that has a difficult time lately hitting an open receivers.

(11-05-2015 05:21 PM)Rocket A Wrote: [ -> ]

(11-04-2015 09:27 PM)northcoastRocket Wrote: [ -> ]We haven't run a 2 back offense in years and years. Very few teams run that anymore in college or the NFL.

This offense traditionally uses the QB read-option as the 2nd running back, but they haven't been using Ely that way this season. And I don't think that is necessarily because they don't think Ely can run, but rather to protect his health due to the multiple braces he still wears. Ely had 40 positive rushing yards in 1+ games before getting hurt last season.

This year they are still using a read option though ... the quick 3-5 yard throws to Jones or Russell are often option passes. The QB reads whether the CB is playing far off the receiver. If so he pulls the ball from the RB and takes the easy 3-5 yard gain. Of course the WR has to read it to and sit for the pass. It's considered kind of a supplement to the running game. Ely has been very good at reading that and making the right choice when that throw is available all season. The pass to Russel late in the game was one of those, when Ely properly read that the CB backpedaled 10 yards off the line just before the snap. Unfortunately it didn't connect. Was the correct read though.

I am not talking about a 2 back offense with a fullback and tailback, I am talking about a 2 back backfield with 2 tailbacks. Remember the offense with Adonis Thomas, Morgan Williams, and David Fluellen, often in 2 back sets. You can have a little misdirection, swing passes to either side, a little intrigue with who is getting the ball since Ely cant run. Where have the throws to the tailback gone? Remember Flu's game at Missouri?!?!?! There is no jet sweep, end around, reverse in this offense.

Maybe I am not remembering right, which happens more and more lately as I get old, but I don't recall us running that many 2 back sets during that time. Maybe we did. I remember Dantin & Owens running a ton of read option though. But, regardless, it really surprises me know that some folks may feel our running game might be an issue this year.

Since you guys probably already know that I am somewhat of a stats junkie, here are some stats to help you sleep at night:

UT ran for 291 yards against NIU.
... NIU is giving up 161 yards a game this season.
... OSU ran for 162 yards against NIU.
Running game did not seem to be the issue Tuesday.

Also, 2015 Rockets are averaging 223 y/gm and 5.3 y/rush
... that's 17th in the country
... Our opponents on average are have given up 184 yards per game
... (that drops to 163 if you don't count EMU.)

2014: 256 y/gm and 5.8 y/rush (all senior OL, one of the best ever)
2013: 240 y/gm and 6.0 y/rush
2012: 193 y/gm and 4.8 y/rush
2011: 213 y/gm and 5.0 y/rush (record setting overall team offense)

So, there is a slight drop-off in production from the last 2 seasons, but not all that bad considering a brand new OL with little to no experience and our #1 back, suspended, and injured for most of the year. But this 1 back offense has produced better rushing numbers overall than the 2011-2012 teams.

Now passing, that's another story.

(11-05-2015 06:33 PM)northcoastRocket Wrote: [ -> ]

(11-05-2015 05:21 PM)Rocket A Wrote: [ -> ]

(11-04-2015 09:27 PM)northcoastRocket Wrote: [ -> ]We haven't run a 2 back offense in years and years. Very few teams run that anymore in college or the NFL.

This offense traditionally uses the QB read-option as the 2nd running back, but they haven't been using Ely that way this season. And I don't think that is necessarily because they don't think Ely can run, but rather to protect his health due to the multiple braces he still wears. Ely had 40 positive rushing yards in 1+ games before getting hurt last season.

This year they are still using a read option though ... the quick 3-5 yard throws to Jones or Russell are often option passes. The QB reads whether the CB is playing far off the receiver. If so he pulls the ball from the RB and takes the easy 3-5 yard gain. Of course the WR has to read it to and sit for the pass. It's considered kind of a supplement to the running game. Ely has been very good at reading that and making the right choice when that throw is available all season. The pass to Russel late in the game was one of those, when Ely properly read that the CB backpedaled 10 yards off the line just before the snap. Unfortunately it didn't connect. Was the correct read though.

I am not talking about a 2 back offense with a fullback and tailback, I am talking about a 2 back backfield with 2 tailbacks. Remember the offense with Adonis Thomas, Morgan Williams, and David Fluellen, often in 2 back sets. You can have a little misdirection, swing passes to either side, a little intrigue with who is getting the ball since Ely cant run. Where have the throws to the tailback gone? Remember Flu's game at Missouri?!?!?! There is no jet sweep, end around, reverse in this offense.

Maybe I am not remembering right, which happens more and more lately as I get old, but I don't recall us running that many 2 back sets during that time. Maybe we did. I remember Dantin & Owens running a ton of read option though. But, regardless, it really surprises me know that some folks may feel our running game might be an issue this year.

Since you guys probably already know that I am somewhat of a stats junkie, here are some stats to help you sleep at night:

UT ran for 291 yards against NIU.
... NIU is giving up 161 yards a game this season.
... OSU ran for 162 yards against NIU.
Running game did not seem to be the issue Tuesday.

Also, 2015 Rockets are averaging 223 y/gm and 5.3 y/rush
... that's 17th in the country
... Our opponents on average are have given up 184 yards per game
... (that drops to 163 if you don't count EMU.)

2014: 256 y/gm and 5.8 y/rush (all senior OL, one of the best ever)
2013: 240 y/gm and 6.0 y/rush
2012: 193 y/gm and 4.8 y/rush
2011: 213 y/gm and 5.0 y/rush (record setting overall team offense)

So, there is a slight drop-off in production from the last 2 seasons, but not all that bad considering a brand new OL with little to no experience and our #1 back, suspended, and injured for most of the year. But this 1 back offense has produced better rushing numbers overall than the 2011-2012 teams.

Now passing, that's another story.

I am not saying the running game is the issue, obviously it isn't. NIU made adjustments at halftime, UT's running game wasn't as successful in the second half. There need to be wrinkles implemented into the play calling.

The 2 back set wasn't a staple, it was probably used 15-20% of the time. It provides a wrinkle to the running game, it also gives the QB some easy throws, swing passes to RBs, to help completion percentage, which can put you in better down and distance than constantly chucking the ball down field with little hope of completion.

I am always impressed and frustrated with NIU's offense, formations and play calling. They have run a diamond formation out of the back field, they run jet sweeps, they even have had the plays where the QB runs toward the line of scrimmage then throws the ball. Much more creative than UTs play calling over the years, given UTs defense fits.