CSNbbs

If so, would the WCC pick them up for olympic sports?

The WCC, no. The Big West, yes, but for the right price. The WAC, yes.

No, BSU won't go Indy. They'll put the sports into the WAC because the Big West will make them pay $1 million/year just to be part of the conference on top of any regular dues.

BSU though, isn't a dumb as BYU to go Indy. They wouldn't get to an Access bowl without being in a conference and that matters a lot to every school, except BYU apparently.

It's a dumb idea to go independent. I think they should go to the AAC with Air Force (or if BYU ever decided to) in football only, both teams join the WAC for everything else.

(11-03-2015 10:34 AM)MWC Tex Wrote: [ -> ]No, BSU won't go Indy. They'll put the sports into the WAC because the Big West will make them pay $1 million/year just to be part of the conference on top of any regular dues.

BSU though, isn't a dumb as BYU to go Indy. They wouldn't get to an Access bowl without being in a conference and that matters a lot to every school, except BYU apparently.

Well, so far being indy has worked pretty well for BYU. But it probably wouldn't work as well for Boise. But the question isn't whether Boise would do better than BYU as an indy, it's whether they would do better than where they are now. IMO, they wouldn't.

I think boise would do very well as an indy and could get a tv deal similar to byu which would make it financially worthwhile. However i do not think they would want to lose their access bowl opportunity nor do i think they would be excited about putting their other sports in the wac. If those issues could be worked out i believe they would jump at the chance

(11-03-2015 11:05 AM)solohawks Wrote: [ -> ]I think boise would do very well as an indy and could get a tv deal similar to byu which would make it financially worthwhile. However i do not think they would want to lose their access bowl opportunity nor do i think they would be excited about putting their other sports in the wac. If those issues could be worked out i believe they would jump at the chance

Yeah being in the WAC is terrible for TV exposure for basketball, and there isn't any quality teams in the WAC besides New Mexico State and maybe Grand Canyon.

This would be a disaster for them.

(11-03-2015 10:54 AM)ken d Wrote: [ -> ]

(11-03-2015 10:34 AM)MWC Tex Wrote: [ -> ]No, BSU won't go Indy. They'll put the sports into the WAC because the Big West will make them pay $1 million/year just to be part of the conference on top of any regular dues.

BSU though, isn't a dumb as BYU to go Indy. They wouldn't get to an Access bowl without being in a conference and that matters a lot to every school, except BYU apparently.

Well, so far being indy has worked pretty well for BYU. But it probably wouldn't work as well for Boise. But the question isn't whether Boise would do better than BYU as an indy, it's whether they would do better than where they are now. IMO, they wouldn't.

Independence met BYU's goals:

- better exposure (ESPN v. The Mtn. TV deals - no comparison)

- much better fan and alumni access


- acknowledgment that BYU is a "power" opponent; by three of the P5 in word, and by the PAC 12 in action (all but Colorado and Oregon St. on future schedules).

Boise St. has good exposure with its own TV deal and has a fan and alumni base almost entirely in the West. Boise St.'s main goal is the NY6 via the G5 access bowl.

While BYU also has a goal to reach the NY6 and CFP, these are secondary to the three goals listed above. And, realistically, how often would BYU really even contend for the NY6 access bowl slot? Less than half the time for sure. With may be a chance of actually earning the bid once or twice per decade?

(11-03-2015 10:34 AM)MWC Tex Wrote: [ -> ]No, BSU won't go Indy. They'll put the sports into the WAC because the Big West will make them pay $1 million/year just to be part of the conference on top of any regular dues.

BSU though, isn't a dumb as BYU to go Indy. They wouldn't get to an Access bowl without being in a conference and that matters a lot to every school, except BYU apparently.

The best way for a school like Boise State to keep its recruiting strong is to stay in contention for a NYD bowl.

In the old system, a school couldn't be in the conversation for a NYD bowl unless it was in striking distance of a Top 16 ranking and/or in contention for the highest ranking. For a school like Boise with a consistent record of performing they could enter as a preseason Top 25 school. For others it was a distant dream. A year like this would have Temple, Memphis, Houston and Toledo as the only possible contenders for that highest Top 16 ranking.

In the new system, any G5 school in contention at the beginning of the year to win its conference championship is by default in contention for an access bowl. Boise with its resources & tradition will always be in contention for the MWC championship. For this reason a couple of 8-4 seasons aren't going to be enough to derail their program as it could have been in the past.

That is what happened to Fresno State's program. They were one of the best programs in the WAC then a few seasons out of the limelight and they lost their edge since they weren't in contention for a NY6. Fresno I don't believe was ever on the cusp of a BCS bowl (David Carr years maybe). Regardless they imploded.

The independent TV money for BYU might be worth it for them, it was a 1.0 to 1.5 million per home game I believe on ESPN, plus the BYUtv game, but I don't see any other upside of being independent, because the exposure would be the same if they were in the AAC or MWC, plus I don't see them getting a NY6 bowl if they are independent.

BYU needs to worry about getting back into being into NY6 bowls or even possibly playoff buster. Their road for that would be better in the AAC or MWC.

If the G5 California Schools ever got creative (Fresno, SDSU, SJSU) I wonder how much more money they could get for pooling their football TV rights and moving all other sports to the Big West. SDSU was all about the Big East/West combo and who could blame them. Their most profitable sport in the most profitable situation and their non revenue sports in the most travel friendly conference possible. I doubt the MWC would let them have a deal like Hawaii, but I wonder if the three of them did it together if they could make independence work.

(11-03-2015 11:05 AM)solohawks Wrote: [ -> ]I think boise would do very well as an indy and could get a tv deal similar to byu which would make it financially worthwhile. However i do not think they would want to lose their access bowl opportunity nor do i think they would be excited about putting their other sports in the wac. If those issues could be worked out i believe they would jump at the chance

Boise has 1 main product; Boise State football. A product that is easy to argue may have peaked under Chris Petersen.

BYU is a broad based athletic school. They've done some good things in football and draw 60,000 a game. In basketball they draw over 15,000 a game and are very successful there too. There is also an institutional agenda with that school to push a TV network full of selected mormon friendly programming.

Boise should be happy to be in the MWC, the destination conference in the West for schools that can't get into the PAC. There are schools like Idaho, NMSU, Montana that would die just to be in the conference. Boise is also built to lead the conference in football for decades to come.

Boise didn't get into a P5. The only school that leveraged a P5 for national success is TCU with the potential of one of the best recruiting markets of the country. Utah is still Utah. Rutgers is a small B1G program. Syracuse and Pitt are somewhere in the ACC behind 1 million teams. Unless the potential is there to dominate a P5 a school can achieve more success in a G5.

The only schools that are independent are those to whom regional exposure means almost nothing. ND, BYU, and Army all desire national exposure due to their unique missions. And in the case of BYU, they seek to proselytize nationally.

Along these lines, the only other schools who might benefit from going indy are those who recruit students on a national level - namely Navy, Air Force, and top academic schools like Duke, Stanford, Northwestern, and Vandy.

You could argue that other religious schools like TCU, SMU, Wake, Tulsa, and Baylor might use their exposure to proselytize like BYU, but to my knowledge the religious character of those institutions is less prominent than at BYU. You could also argue that top programs that don't face much competition for local exposure (Texas, Ohio State, and Penn State are the only ones I can think of) could gain additional national exposure without losing their local exposure, but this is risky.

(11-03-2015 12:22 PM)solohawks Wrote: [ -> ]If the G5 California Schools ever got creative (Fresno, SDSU, SJSU) I wonder how much more money they could get for pooling their football TV rights and moving all other sports to the Big West. SDSU was all about the Big East/West combo and who could blame them. Their most profitable sport in the most profitable situation and their non revenue sports in the most travel friendly conference possible. I doubt the MWC would let them have a deal like Hawaii, but I wonder if the three of them did it together if they could make independence work.

The G5 offers 1-2 million per year by itself and recruiting advantages by contending for a Fiesta, Cotton and Peach Bowl if you win the conference championship.

The only school that I can see wanting to roll the dice on independence might be UConn because they could fall back on the BE which is better for fans and financially than the AAC and because they are mediocre enough in football where the NYD bowls are not realistic.

(11-03-2015 12:06 PM)AuzGrams Wrote: [ -> ]The independent TV money for BYU might be worth it for them, it was a 1.0 to 1.5 million per home game I believe on ESPN, plus the BYUtv game, but I don't see any other upside of being independent, because the exposure would be the same if they were in the AAC or MWC, plus I don't see them getting a NY6 bowl if they are independent.

BYU needs to worry about getting back into being into NY6 bowls or even possibly playoff buster. Their road for that would be better in the AAC or MWC.

See the map from my post above. It's not all about the money. Fan access to the program has increased tremendously over the WAC and MWC days - this has been especially important as the alumni, fan, and LDS membership footprint has expanded across the country.

BYU has played road games in at least 15 states in the last 4 or 5 years- including 3 or 4 midwestern states, 3 or 4 southern states, and the Northeast. There have been strong BYU contingencies at most of these road games. (This is a reason why I see an expanded AAC as a better home for BYU over the current MWC)

You are right about the television exposure issue - although that was NOT the case when BYU announced independence. The deal with ESPN was a huge improvement over BYU's exposure under The Mtn. There are still 3 years left on that contract - with an ESPN option for a 4th year.

Also, don't forget that BYU's independence has garnered "power" acknowledgment by the SEC, B1G, and ACC. Several P5 coaches and AD's have publicly acknowledged BYU as a 'peer' program.

While the road to the NY6 is definitely easier as part of the AAC or MWC, I disagree that the road to the CFP is easier. BYU was in the (premature) national discussions as a CFP darkhorse last year and this year at 4-0 (in 2014) and 2-0 (in 2015) - much more quickly than any team from the AAC or MWC. Why? Because BYU has had more P5 and other quality opponents than can be scheduled in either the AAC or MWC. That trend continues, and even improves, on most of BYU's future schedules.

(11-03-2015 12:31 PM)Kittonhead Wrote: [ -> ]Boise should be happy to be in the MWC, the destination conference in the West for schools that can't get into the PAC. There are schools like Idaho, NMSU, Montana that would die just to be in the conference. Boise is also built to lead the conference in football for decades to come.

Boise didn't get into a P5. The only school that leveraged a P5 for national success is TCU with the potential of one of the best recruiting markets of the country. Utah is still Utah. Rutgers is a small B1G program. Syracuse and Pitt are somewhere in the ACC behind 1 million teams. Unless the potential is there to dominate a P5 a school can achieve more success in a G5.

It's interesting to think about whether the MWC made a mistake by gutting the WAC. Before, the WAC was third class status behind the PAC and MWC. Now, most of the schools that were in that third tier have been elevated to the second tier (SJSU and Utah St. as main beneficiaries). So, there really isn't a third tier in the West.

What if the MWC had expanded to add Texas-region schools and fewer WAC schools?

I may have my timelines wrong, but the MWC could have picked up Boise St. and Fresno St. - and then gone to Houston, SMU, Tulsa, and UTEP, instead of the WAC. This may have helped the MWC to have more national relevance today because of the broader footprint - that would still cover California and the Mountain West states, but also Texas and Oklahoma (SJSU, Utah St., Nevada, and Hawaii don't really 'deliver' any tremendous market share not already within the MWC market).

MWC WEST: SDSU, Fresno, UNLV, Boise St., CSU, Wyoming
MWC EAST: Houston, SMU, Tulsa, UTEP, New Mexico, Air Force

The WAC would be: Hawaii, SJSU, Nevada, Idaho, Utah St., NMSU, and perhaps UTSA and Texas St. or N. Texas

(11-03-2015 11:31 AM)YNot Wrote: [ -> ]

(11-03-2015 10:54 AM)ken d Wrote: [ -> ]

(11-03-2015 10:34 AM)MWC Tex Wrote: [ -> ]No, BSU won't go Indy. They'll put the sports into the WAC because the Big West will make them pay $1 million/year just to be part of the conference on top of any regular dues.

BSU though, isn't a dumb as BYU to go Indy. They wouldn't get to an Access bowl without being in a conference and that matters a lot to every school, except BYU apparently.

Well, so far being indy has worked pretty well for BYU. But it probably wouldn't work as well for Boise. But the question isn't whether Boise would do better than BYU as an indy, it's whether they would do better than where they are now. IMO, they wouldn't.

Independence met BYU's goals:

- better exposure (ESPN v. The Mtn. TV deals - no comparison)

- much better fan and alumni access


- acknowledgment that BYU is a "power" opponent; by three of the P5 in word, and by the PAC 12 in action (all but Colorado and Oregon St. on future schedules).

Boise St. has good exposure with its own TV deal and has a fan and alumni base almost entirely in the West. Boise St.'s main goal is the NY6 via the G5 access bowl.

While BYU also has a goal to reach the NY6 and CFP, these are secondary to the three goals listed above. And, realistically, how often would BYU really even contend for the NY6 access bowl slot? Less than half the time for sure. With may be a chance of actually earning the bid once or twice per decade?

So far this century, BYU would never have earned an access bowl slot. The few times they have even been ranked, Boise was ranked ahead of them. And they have never been ranked in the top 12 teams, much less the top 4 to reach a playoff.

Because of BYU's independence, they have one of the most diverse schedules in the nation. As a college football fan, I love it. More independents please.

(11-03-2015 10:34 AM)MWC Tex Wrote: [ -> ]No, BSU won't go Indy. They'll put the sports into the WAC because the Big West will make them pay $1 million/year just to be part of the conference on top of any regular dues.

BSU though, isn't a dumb as BYU to go Indy. They wouldn't get to an Access bowl without being in a conference and that matters a lot to every school, except BYU apparently.

Say BYU or any independent besides ND gets Access to the Access bowl in the future.
Then the MWC demands even revenue sharing in the TV contract.
The UNLV AD has already complained and AF and CSU received none of the performance money despite good years.

Could you see Boise trying it then?

Don't bother arguing against the scenario I don't think it will happen.