Ga. Southern (5-1 now)/ 6 games left / 3 home (Texas St., USA, and Ga. State) and 3 away (App. St., Troy and Georgia)
Prediction: 9-3 overall definitely bowl eligible
Ark. St. (3-3 now)/ 6 games left/ 3 home (Louisiana, Ga. St. and Texas St.) and 3 away (App. St., ULM, and NMSU)
Prediction: 8-4 overall definitely bowl eligible
App. St. (5-1 now)/ 6 games left/ 4 home (Ga. Southern, Troy, Ark. St. and Louisiana) and 2 away ( Idaho, and South Alabama)
Prediction: 10-2 overall definitely bowl eligible
Louisiana: (2-3 now)/ 7 games left/ 3 home (ULM, NMSU and Troy) and 4 away (Ark. St., Ga. St., USA, and App. St.)
Prediction:8-4 overall and definitely bowl eligible
South Alabama: (3-3 now) / 6 games left / 3 home (Idaho, Louisiana, and App. St.) and 3 away (Texas St., Ga. St, and Ga. Southern)
Prediction: 6-6 overall and bowl eligible
Ga. State: (2-4 right now)/ 6 games left/ 3 home (Louisiana, South Alabama, and Troy) and 3 away ( Ark. St., Texas St. and Ga. Southern)
Prediction: 3-9 not bowl eligible
ULM: (1-5 right now)/ 7 games left/ 2 home ( Ark. St. and NMSU) and 5 away (Idaho. Louisiana, Troy, Texas St. and Hawaii)
Prediction: 5-8 not bowl eligible
Texas St. (1-4 right now)/ 7 games left/ 4 home (USA, NMSU, Ga. St. and ULM) and 3 away (Ga. Southern, Idaho and Ark. St.)
Prediction: 5-7 not bowl eligible
Troy: (1-5 right now)/ 6 games left/ 2 home ( ULM and Ga. Southern) and 4 away (NMSU, App. St., Ga. St., and Louisiana)
Prediction: 4-8 not bowl eligible
NMSU (0-6 right now)/ 6 games left/ 3 home (Troy, Idaho, and Ark. St.) and 3 away ( Texas St., Louisiana and ULM)
Prediction: 1-11 not bowl eligible
Idaho: (2-4 right now)/ 6 games left/ 3 home (ULM, App. St. and Texas St.) and 3 away ( NMSU, USA and Auburn)
Prediction: 4-8 not bowl eligible
So I have 5 Belt teams bowl eligible this year at this point (Ga. Southern, App. St., Ark. St., Louisiana and South Alabama)
Thanks for your post. Do you mind if I copy and paste it the South Alabama board? I'll credit you as well. There's some good bowl opportunity talk on Jags Jungle and I know our posters would enjoy it.
If not I'll just leave it here.
G5 Bowl Eligibility Probabilities from TeamRankings.com:
Sun Belt (4 tie-ins and alternate for Arizona Bowl):
Georgia Southern 100.0%
Appalachian State 100.0%
Arkansas State 93.5%
UL-Lafayette 67.8%
South Alabama 29.1%
Texas State 17.2%
Idaho 7.7%
Georgia State 7.7%
UL-Monroe 7.4%
Troy 1.4%
New Mexico State 0.1%
Projected Eligible Teams: 4.32
AAC (7 tie-ins):
Houston 100.0%
Temple 100.0%
Memphis 100.0%
Navy 99.9%
East Carolina 92.8%
Cincinnati 83.0%
Tulsa 67.1%
South Florida 59.8%
Connecticut 15.2%
Tulane 1.7%
SMU 0.2%
UCF 0.0%
Projected Eliglible Teams: 7.20
CUSA (7 tie-ins):
Marshall 100.0%
Western Kentucky 100.0%
Louisiana Tech 99.7%
Southern Miss 98.8%
Middle Tenn State 87.8%
Rice 80.6%
Florida International 65.5%
Old Dominion 19.5%
UT-San Antonio 4.6%
UTEP 4.1%
Charlotte* 0.4%
Florida Atlantic 0.3%
North Texas 0.0%
Projected Eliglible Teams 6.61
MAC (5 tie-ins)
Toledo 100.0%
Bowling Green 99.5%
Northern Illinois 97.8%
Ohio 97.1%
Western Michigan 89.7%
Central Michigan 81.7%
Akron 71.9%
Buffalo 35.8%
Kent State 15.2%
Massachusetts 6.3%
Ball State 4.4%
Miami (OH) 0.1%
Eastern Michigan 0.0%
Projected Eliglible Teams 7.00
Mountain West (5 tie-ins)
Boise State 100.0%
Utah State 99.8%
San Diego State 90.7%
Air Force 84.3%
Colorado State 80.7%
Nevada 38.8%
New Mexico 36.7%
San Jose State 24.2%
UNLV 10.3%
Hawaii 8.6%
Fresno State 0.9%
Wyoming 0.0%
Projected Eliglible Teams 5.75
Total Projected Bowl Eligible Teams (80 spots available): 77.41
You certainly have my permission to use it.
(10-18-2015 07:50 PM)GaSoEagle Wrote: [ -> ]Ga. Southern (5-1 now)/ 6 games left / 3 home (Texas St., USA, and Ga. State) and 3 away (App. St., Troy and Georgia)
Prediction: 9-3 overall definitely bowl eligible
Ark. St. (3-3 now)/ 6 games left/ 3 home (Louisiana, Ga. St. and Texas St.) and 3 away (App. St., ULM, and NMSU)
Prediction: 8-4 overall definitely bowl eligible
App. St. (5-1 now)/ 6 games left/ 4 home (Ga. Southern, Troy, Ark. St. and Louisiana) and 2 away ( Idaho, and South Alabama)
Prediction: 10-2 overall definitely bowl eligible
Louisiana: (2-3 now)/ 7 games left/ 3 home (ULM, NMSU and Troy) and 4 away (Ark. St., Ga. St., USA, and App. St.)
Prediction:8-4 overall and bowl eligible
South Alabama: (3-3 now) / 6 games left / 3 home (Idaho, Louisiana, and App. St.) and 3 away (Texas St., Ga. St, and Ga. Southern)
Prediction: 6-6 overall and bowl eligible
Ga. State: (2-4 right now)/ 6 games left/ 3 home (Louisiana, South Alabama, and Troy) and 3 away ( Ark. St., Texas St. and Ga. Southern)
Prediction: 3-9 not bowl eligible
ULM: (1-5 right now)/ 7 games left/ 2 home ( Ark. St. and NMSU) and 5 away (Idaho. Louisiana, Troy, Texas St. and Hawaii)
Prediction: 5-8 not bowl eligible
Texas St. (1-4 right now)/ 7 games left/ 4 home (USA, NMSU, Ga. St. and ULM) and 3 away (Ga. Southern, Idaho and Ark. St.)
Prediction: 5-7 not bowl eligible
Troy: (1-5 right now)/ 6 games left/ 2 home ( ULM and Ga. Southern) and 4 away (NMSU, App. St., Ga. St., and Louisiana)
Prediction: 4-8 not bowl eligible
NMSU (0-6 right now)/ 6 games left/ 3 home (Troy, Idaho, and Ark. St.) and 3 away ( Texas St., Louisiana and ULM)
Prediction: 1-11 not bowl eligible
Idaho: (2-4 right now)/ 6 games left/ 3 home (ULM, App. St. and Texas St.) and 3 away ( NMSU, USA and Auburn)
Prediction: 4-8 not bowl eligible
So I have 5 Belt teams bowl eligible this year at this point (Ga. Southern, App. St., Ark. St., Louisiana and South Alabama)
Just an FYI...you have App losing only one more, ULL losing only one more, AState losing one more, and Georgia Southern losing one more league game. I'm not actually sure that's possible given the number of head two head matchups between that group.
Here is what I am predicting at this point:
GS: losing at App
Ark. St.: losing at App
Louisiana: losing at Ark. St.
App: Losing vs. Louisiana
Like I mentioned last week, we need to hope CUSA only gets 6 and we get to 5 to take their spot in the Arizona Bowl. This actually has moved in their favor, as their projection has gone slightly up, while ours has gone down. It looks like the MWC will probably fill their spots so I would focus on CUSA. Definitely rooting against MTSU, FIU, and Rice.
Sun Belt:
Georgia Southern 100.0%
Appalachian State 100.0%
Arkansas State 93.5%
UL-Lafayette 67.8%
South Alabama 29.1%
Texas State 17.2%
Idaho 7.7%
Georgia State 7.7%
UL-Monroe 7.4%
Troy 1.4%
New Mexico State 0.1%
Projected Eligible Teams: 4.32
CUSA (7 tie-ins):
Marshall 100.0%
Western Kentucky 100.0%
Louisiana Tech 99.7%
Southern Miss 98.8%
Middle Tenn State 87.8%
Rice 80.6%
Florida International 65.5%
Old Dominion 19.5%
UT-San Antonio 4.6%
UTEP 4.1%
Charlotte* 0.4%
Florida Atlantic 0.3%
North Texas 0.0%
Projected Eliglible Teams 6.61
(10-18-2015 08:41 PM)GaSoEagle Wrote: [ -> ]Here is what I am predicting at this point:
GS: losing at App
Ark. St.: losing at App
Louisiana: losing at Ark. St.
App: Losing vs. Louisiana
So...what you really are predicting is for App to have the SBC Title all lined up, only to lose the very last game of the season, creating a monster 4 way tie for the league title that I'm sure not even Karl Benson would know what to do about?
Quadruple champions :).
I reserve the right to change my predictions on a week to week basis :)
If App beats us, Ark. St. and Louisiana (all at home), I would say they deserve the championship, but I don't see them winning all 3. I think Louisiana has the best shot at them.
(10-18-2015 08:34 PM)asucrutch23 Wrote: [ -> ]AAC (6 tie-ins):
Houston 100.0%
Temple 100.0%
Memphis 100.0%
Navy 99.9%
East Carolina 92.8%
Cincinnati 83.0%
Tulsa 67.1%
South Florida 59.8%
Connecticut 15.2%
Tulane 1.7%
SMU 0.2%
UCF 0.0%
Projected Eliglible Teams: 7.20
AAC has 7 tie ins (8 if it makes the access bowl).
These are the AAC tie ins this year:
Birmingham Bowl
St. Petersburg Bowl
Miami Beach Bowl
Military Bowl
Hawaii Bowl
Boca Raton Bowl
Cure Bowl
Whoops. I think Louisiana should be definitely bowl eligible also. I think Louisiana, Ark. St., GS and App are pretty much certainties for bowls. I think South Alabama gets to 6-6 also and there is an outside chance of a 6th team (probably Texas St.) or being bowl eligible.
(10-18-2015 08:52 PM)BullsFanInTX Wrote: [ -> ] (10-18-2015 08:34 PM)asucrutch23 Wrote: [ -> ]AAC (6 tie-ins):
Houston 100.0%
Temple 100.0%
Memphis 100.0%
Navy 99.9%
East Carolina 92.8%
Cincinnati 83.0%
Tulsa 67.1%
South Florida 59.8%
Connecticut 15.2%
Tulane 1.7%
SMU 0.2%
UCF 0.0%
Projected Eliglible Teams: 7.20
AAC has 7 tie ins (8 if it makes the access bowl).
These are the AAC tie ins this year:
Birmingham Bowl
St. Petersburg Bowl
Miami Beach Bowl
Military Bowl
Hawaii Bowl
Boca Raton Bowl
Cure Bowl
Thanks, fixed. I guess that means if you guys get the access bowl (very high likelihood) and only have 7 eligible teams, that will open up the Cure Bowl. Could see a P5 team in that slot.
(10-18-2015 08:56 PM)GaSoEagle Wrote: [ -> ]Whoops. I think Louisiana should be definitely bowl eligible also. I think Louisiana, Ark. St., GS and App are pretty much certainties for bowls. I think South Alabama gets to 6-6 also and there is an outside chance of a 6th team (probably Texas St.) or being bowl eligible.
Honestly, I'd say we're anything BUT bowl-eligible at this point. That's to say, I don't see many remaining games I'd consider in-the-bag.
Lose Tuesday night and our program could slide into a funk that we can't climb out of. Win, and we might become over-confident and turn around and lose an easy game or two.
Thanks for your confidence though.
