CSNbbs

Just to stir the pot in a different direction, I know we're all pretty excited about this upcoming MBB season. Let's put down some predictions and thoughts.

I'll start off the bidding easy at 16 wins and at least 1 win in the conference tournament.

Last year, I thought more than 5 wins would be ok given the state of the team. Then they passed that, so I thought 10 wins would be a great and tough stretch goal, then they passed that and won a game at the tournament, surpassing any expectation that I had for the season.

This year, I am excited to see Max Guercy, Marcus Jackson, and Bishop Mency continue to improve and I am excited to see what Marquez "Quez" Letcher-Ellis can do.

After Rice was eliminated from the conference tournament, I predicted on the conference board that this season Rice would finish in the top-4 in CUSA, meaning a 1st-round bye in the CUSA tournament. I am sticking by that prediction.

Gearhart was fantastic last year, but I imagine Koulechov will fill a similar role. Even if he falls short of Gearhart's amazing season, I can't see any scenario where Letcher-Ellis, Cashaw, Evans, Lott, and Smith are not a significant, significant upgrade over Peera, Green, and Jones.

Plus 3 additional home games (replacing neutral games).

Plus another year in the system and another year of conditioning for Guercy, Jackson, Drone, Pollard, and Mency.

Plus last year's team improved significantly as the season progressed. If you divide the season into thirds: 3-8 --> 3-7 --> 6-5.

Plus last year's team was in every single game (only team in CUSA to not have a loss of 15+ points).

I don't know Rice's opponents to be that educated, but I'll go ahead and predict 18+ wins. That sets the bar pretty high, but I bet Coach Rhoades has set the bar even higher in his mind. Honestly, given everything I wrote above, 20 wins sounds about right.

This season ... lower level post season tournament
Next season ... NIT
Following season ... NCAA

20 win season with a deep run in the tourney and the first invite to the big dance since 1970! Got aim for the moon so even if you miss you are still among the stars!

I predict we will do well. I remember thinking after the La Tourneau game that I could walk on to the team and that we were in pretty dire straits. Heck, Peera doubled his career minutes 5 games into the season.

Point is, after seeing that, I am a believer in Rhoades. And expect with his recruiting and returning players to do well.

18-20 wins
4th or 5th in regular season
Beat everyone not named UAB in Conf tourney.
Likely result, tourney runner up (with UAB in opposite bracket as a 2/3) and no at-large bid.
Shoo-in for NIT.

I'm hoping for a .500 season. I know that won't sit well with Coach, but improvement comes in steps over time. Next year holds great promise.

16-15 regular season
1-1 conference tournament

Better than .500 season and visible improvement as the season goes on. Deep run in the tournament gives us a shot at the big dance but we end up in a minor post season tournament. Wouldn't be surprised if we close in on 20 wins but I think that is extremely optimistic. We do still have 2 open scholarship spots and are relying on a bunch of freshmen.

Drone makes a lot more of those layups he missed so his scoring average goes way up.
Mency has a jump in performance like Jackson did.

Improvement.

Not sure where the number of wins ends up, but you can tell that the players buy in to what Rhoades is selling, and he's selling some good basketball. I'd say that we pull an upset this year, but unfortunately we don't seem to be playing anyone at the moment that looks to be upset worthy. Maybe that means we sneak into the Big Dance through the back door.

20 win season (including CUSA tourney) and a post-season birth.

Freshmen make major impact from get go, and Koulechov lives up to expectations as an improved version of Gearhart. Drone and Mencey both show improvement based on improved conditioning.

I am going with .500 or slightly better with hopefully an invite to one of the alphabet tourneys that is below the NIT. I think that like last year we will lose some games in the first half of the season that we wouldn't have lost with a half year's experience for the new players. The new players are definitely a cut above so perhaps we won't have quite the same learning curve last year's team had. Also a number of these players were in systems while not exactly like Rhoades runs they did play in uptempo and some pressing defensive systems. The reduction in the shot clock should work well for us. Having said all of that it wouldn't surprise me if my prediction winds up being too conservative.

I really want to see the new players before I make too bold of a prediction. I think Jackson should be preseason 1st-team all-conference. And I think our overall guard play will be outstanding. But I want to see if the big guys have improved at all, and staying healthy will be important because we aren't playing with a full roster. I think we'll improve our win-loss total but maybe not as much of an improvement as a lot of people are expecting?

(10-02-2015 12:47 PM)Tiki Owl Wrote: [ -> ]I am going with .500 or slightly better with hopefully an invite to one of the alphabet tourneys that is below the NIT. I think that like last year we will lose some games in the first half of the season that we wouldn't have lost with a half year's experience for the new players. The new players are definitely a cut above so perhaps we won't have quite the same learning curve last year's team had. Also a number of these players were in systems while not exactly like Rhoades runs they did play in uptempo and some pressing defensive systems. The reduction in the shot clock should work well for us. Having said all of that it wouldn't surprise me if my prediction winds up being too conservative.

I wouldn't think that a shortened shot clock would favor us. The game in general will become faster, so Rice's pace will not seem so extraordinary.

(10-02-2015 05:52 PM)RiceBull Wrote: [ -> ]

(10-02-2015 12:47 PM)Tiki Owl Wrote: [ -> ]I am going with .500 or slightly better with hopefully an invite to one of the alphabet tourneys that is below the NIT. I think that like last year we will lose some games in the first half of the season that we wouldn't have lost with a half year's experience for the new players. The new players are definitely a cut above so perhaps we won't have quite the same learning curve last year's team had. Also a number of these players were in systems while not exactly like Rhoades runs they did play in uptempo and some pressing defensive systems. The reduction in the shot clock should work well for us. Having said all of that it wouldn't surprise me if my prediction winds up being too conservative.

I wouldn't think that a shortened shot clock would favor us. The game in general will become faster, so Rice's pace will not seem so extraordinary.

If we press all 94' teams will have less time once they cross midcourt to set up and run an offense.

(10-02-2015 05:52 PM)RiceBull Wrote: [ -> ]

(10-02-2015 12:47 PM)Tiki Owl Wrote: [ -> ]I am going with .500 or slightly better with hopefully an invite to one of the alphabet tourneys that is below the NIT. I think that like last year we will lose some games in the first half of the season that we wouldn't have lost with a half year's experience for the new players. The new players are definitely a cut above so perhaps we won't have quite the same learning curve last year's team had. Also a number of these players were in systems while not exactly like Rhoades runs they did play in uptempo and some pressing defensive systems. The reduction in the shot clock should work well for us. Having said all of that it wouldn't surprise me if my prediction winds up being too conservative.

I wouldn't think that a shortened shot clock would favor us. The game in general will become faster, so Rice's pace will not seem so extraordinary.

It will still get opponents out of their comfort zone.

While compiling the performance ratings for football this week, I see that Massey has come out with his preseason college basketball ratings. For the men, he has Rice as 236th out 351 Division I teams with 14.62 predicted wins out of 31 games in the regular season and ninth out 14 Conference USA teams. For the women, the Owls are ranked 214th out of 349 with 11.01 predicted wins in 29 games and 12th in C-USA.

(10-07-2015 12:34 AM)Jonathan Sadow Wrote: [ -> ]While compiling the performance ratings for football this week, I see that Massey has come out with his preseason college basketball ratings. For the men, he has Rice as 236th out 351 Division I teams with 14.62 predicted wins out of 31 games in the regular season and ninth out 14 Conference USA teams. For the women, the Owls are ranked 214th out of 349 with 11.01 predicted wins in 29 games and 12th in C-USA.

I'll take the over on both.

(10-07-2015 01:01 AM)Wiessman Wrote: [ -> ]

(10-07-2015 12:34 AM)Jonathan Sadow Wrote: [ -> ]While compiling the performance ratings for football this week, I see that Massey has come out with his preseason college basketball ratings. For the men, he has Rice as 236th out 351 Division I teams with 14.62 predicted wins out of 31 games in the regular season and ninth out 14 Conference USA teams. For the women, the Owls are ranked 214th out of 349 with 11.01 predicted wins in 29 games and 12th in C-USA.

I'll take the over on both.

+1