I see only a few teams that are (based on per-season objective sources) legitimate threats to the Tigers for the Access Bowl bid reserved for G-5 schools. They are Boise St, Cincy, Colo St, and maybe a C-USA team.
What teams do you view as follow contenders?
"Pre-season objective sources" - I know Marshall is picked ahead of us.
BSU is the primary concern, IMO. We can take care of Cincy at home. BSU plays CSU on the road, also at BYU & at UVA. If they can go through their schedule undefeated, they will be consistently ranked ahead of us & put BYU & CSU away at the same time. Probably more important is that the BSU SOS is rated much better than ours & BSU will start the season ranked. But it's a long year & anything can happen. We just need to win, one game at a time - and make it tough for those who rank the teams to keep us down. Beating OM would go a long way to getting the polls attention we need, but we can't focus on OM until it's OM week.
(08-17-2015 08:29 AM)Atlanta Wrote: [ -> ]BSU is the primary concern, IMO. We can take care of Cincy at home. BSU plays CSU on the road, also at BYU & at UVA. If they can go through their schedule undefeated, they will be consistently ranked ahead of us & put BYU & CSU away at the same time. Probably more important is that the BSU SOS is rated much better than ours & BSU will start the season ranked. But it's a long year & anything can happen. We just need to win, one game at a time - and make it tough for those who rank the teams to keep us down. Beating OM would go a long way to getting the polls attention we need, but we can't focus on OM until it's OM week.
I learned - thanks to Triple A - that BYU is not eligible for the G-5 Access Bowl slot. We can scratch them off the list. I agree that BSU is the primary threat.
CSU will be breaking in a new coaching staff....I am not sure I buy the argument that they will be better than us...yet.
Mike Bobo was a good offensive coordinator for Georgia for a number of years...and his system is quite a bit different from Jim McIlwain's...so it could take awhile for CSU to acclimate themselves to him.
I think our primrary threats to the G5 access slot are: Boise State, Northern Illinois, Marshall, or Utah State.
Boise State is Boise....they'll still be strong...although the best teams they will play this year are Washington & BYU...their first two games of the season at that. Win those two...and the rest should be easy pickings for them barring some major injuries..
Northern Illinois has 2 tough games this year...1 against Ohio State University...and the other against Boston College the following week, If they could earn a split...possibly against BC....then they have a shot at having a good season afterwards...as their schedule softens somewhat by shifting to conference play.
Marshall plays 1 P5 member..Purdue....and that is it. The rest of their schedule resembles last year's "Weak Sister of the Poor" scheduling that earned them so much ridicule in the Access Bowl talk. Win against Purdue..and we'll have to hear from them about how they are the 'superior G5 school' again...until they play Western Kentucky anyways. I've suddenly started taking an interest in the Hilltopper program, as you can imagine.
I wanted to throw BYU into the conversation...but they will play a brutal schedule for an independent this year. Nebraska, Boise State, UCLA, Michigan, ECU, Cinci, and Missouri...and so they make squeak by with an 8-5 or a 7-6 record this year.
Utah State has tough games against Utah & Boise State,,,and if they can either earn a split...or earn a decent enough record anyways...I think they are going have be pretty decent this year as well.
(08-17-2015 09:07 AM)EarthBoundMisfit Wrote: [ -> ]CSU will be breaking in a new coaching staff....I am not sure I buy the argument that they will be better than us...yet.
Mike Bobo was a good offensive coordinator for Georgia for a number of years...and his system is quite a bit different from Jim McIlwain's...so it could take awhile for CSU to acclimate themselves to him.
I think our primrary threats to the G5 access slot are: Boise State, Northern Illinois, Marshall, or Utah State.
Boise State is Boise....they'll still be strong...although the best teams they will play this year are Washington & BYU...their first two games of the season at that. Win those two...and the rest should be easy pickings for them barring some major injuries..
Northern Illinois has 2 tough games this year...1 against Ohio State University...and the other against Boston College the following week, If they could earn a split...possibly against BC....then they have a shot at having a good season afterwards...as their schedule softens somewhat by shifting to conference play.
Marshall plays 1 P5 member..Purdue....and that is it. The rest of their schedule resembles last year's "Weak Sister of the Poor" scheduling that earned them so much ridicule in the Access Bowl talk. Win against Purdue..and we'll have to hear from them about how they are the 'superior G5 school' again...until they play Western Kentucky anyways. I've suddenly started taking an interest in the Hilltopper program, as you can imagine.
I wanted to throw BYU into the conversation...but they will play a brutal schedule for an independent this year. Nebraska, Boise State, UCLA, Michigan, ECU, Cinci, and Missouri...and so they make squeak by with an 8-5 or a 7-6 record this year.
Utah State has tough games against Utah & Boise State,,,and if they can either earn a split...or earn a decent enough record anyways...I think they are going have be pretty decent this year as well.
Good analysis. Just an FYI that BYU is not eligible.
(08-17-2015 08:49 AM)Tiger1983 Wrote: [ -> ] (08-17-2015 08:29 AM)Atlanta Wrote: [ -> ]BSU is the primary concern, IMO. We can take care of Cincy at home. BSU plays CSU on the road, also at BYU & at UVA. If they can go through their schedule undefeated, they will be consistently ranked ahead of us & put BYU & CSU away at the same time. Probably more important is that the BSU SOS is rated much better than ours & BSU will start the season ranked. But it's a long year & anything can happen. We just need to win, one game at a time - and make it tough for those who rank the teams to keep us down. Beating OM would go a long way to getting the polls attention we need, but we can't focus on OM until it's OM week.
I learned - thanks to Triple A - that BYU is not eligible for the G-5 Access Bowl slot. We can scratch them off the list. I agree that BSU is the primary threat.
Access - correct, they aren't eligible technically for the G-5 slot but they can be ranked above us & will be if they win, given their schedule & preseason ranking. BYU plays BSU, Michigan, Nebraska, UCLA, Missouri, Fresno St, Cincy.......a much tougher schedule than ours. And that schedule could get them an at-large slot under some circumstances. SOS is the distinguishing factor if either BSU or BYU goes undefeated or has only one loss relative to ranking.
This brings up another point, schedule - if BYU can schedule the likes of UCLA, Nebraska, Missouri, BSU & Michigan in the same year, we could too. And we will never get the access slot competing against undefeated or one loss BSU with an equal win/loss record. BYU will be a consideration for an at-large slot if they win big given their schedule.
Boise has a tough opener, hosting a P5 in Washington and Chris Peterson returning to the smurf turf.
Boise is also replacing their starting QB and RB - they are favored by two scores, but Peterson knows the personnel at Boise as he recruited most of them, and knows the schemes, as Harsin was a disciple.
I wouldn't crown them just yet.
I don't expect to be the one school that makes it - lots of games that we COULD lose. Have to win all but 1 ...
Ole Miss is a HUGE game.
(08-17-2015 09:13 AM)HoopDreams Wrote: [ -> ]Boise has a tough opener, hosting a P5 in Washington and Chris Peterson returning to the smurf turf.
Boise is also replacing their starting QB and RB - they are favored by two scores, but Peterson knows the personnel at Boise as he recruited most of them, and knows the schemes, as Harsin was a disciple.
I wouldn't crown them just yet.
Problem is that you can consider BSU, Fresno & CSU interchangeably. One of them is likely to have equal or better won/loss than us - and all have a better SOS.
All of them are breaking in new starting QBs though, and CSU also is breaking in a first year HC.
(08-17-2015 09:17 AM)HometownTiger Wrote: [ -> ]I don't expect to be the one school that makes it - lots of games that we COULD lose. Have to win all but 1 ...
Ole Miss is a HUGE game.
I disagree. I think 11-2 (including an AAC championship win) could get us in...unless Boise goes 12-1.
(08-17-2015 09:37 AM)TigersRuleAll Wrote: [ -> ] (08-17-2015 09:17 AM)HometownTiger Wrote: [ -> ]I don't expect to be the one school that makes it - lots of games that we COULD lose. Have to win all but 1 ...
Ole Miss is a HUGE game.
I disagree. I think 11-2 (including an AAC championship win) could get us in...unless Boise goes 12-1.
Probably true. But even then, that's pretty lofty...
The list early is Boise and Marshall based on projections.
I'm not a Marshall believer as they lost a lot, but their schedule isn't strong either.
Northern Illinois always seems to be in the mix as well.
Then the upstarts like Colorado State, Cincinnati, etc.
Someone always manages to sneak up - whether it is Fresno State or Central Florida...maybe a San Diego State.
I think a sleeper is Air Force - all their games are winnable except for an early trip to East Lansing to take on Sparty.
Toledo and Western Kentucky and Louisiana Tech are all good this year and have a chance to be that sleeper team that sneaks in there.
Why would anyone from U of M schedule a game with BSU at BSU? This does not make sense.
(08-17-2015 09:37 AM)TigersRuleAll Wrote: [ -> ] (08-17-2015 09:17 AM)HometownTiger Wrote: [ -> ]I don't expect to be the one school that makes it - lots of games that we COULD lose. Have to win all but 1 ...
Ole Miss is a HUGE game.
I disagree. I think 11-2 (including an AAC championship win) could get us in...unless Boise goes 12-1.
Will be near impossible for us to have the same record as Boise, CSU or even Fresno St and get the access slot - SOS is against us in each of those cases. Maybe if the best of that bunch has a bad loss, we get ranked higher but not otherwise.
(08-17-2015 11:17 AM)Atlanta Wrote: [ -> ] (08-17-2015 09:37 AM)TigersRuleAll Wrote: [ -> ] (08-17-2015 09:17 AM)HometownTiger Wrote: [ -> ]I don't expect to be the one school that makes it - lots of games that we COULD lose. Have to win all but 1 ...
Ole Miss is a HUGE game.
I disagree. I think 11-2 (including an AAC championship win) could get us in...unless Boise goes 12-1.
Will be near impossible for us to have the same record as Boise, CSU or even Fresno St and get the access slot - SOS is against us in each of those cases. Maybe if the best of that bunch has a bad loss, we get ranked higher but not otherwise.
Is it possible for an undefeated boise to sneak into the playoff?
(08-19-2015 11:22 AM)macgar32 Wrote: [ -> ] (08-17-2015 11:17 AM)Atlanta Wrote: [ -> ] (08-17-2015 09:37 AM)TigersRuleAll Wrote: [ -> ] (08-17-2015 09:17 AM)HometownTiger Wrote: [ -> ]I don't expect to be the one school that makes it - lots of games that we COULD lose. Have to win all but 1 ...
Ole Miss is a HUGE game.
I disagree. I think 11-2 (including an AAC championship win) could get us in...unless Boise goes 12-1.
Will be near impossible for us to have the same record as Boise, CSU or even Fresno St and get the access slot - SOS is against us in each of those cases. Maybe if the best of that bunch has a bad loss, we get ranked higher but not otherwise.
Is it possible for an undefeated boise to sneak into the playoff?
Depends on the landscape around them obviously, but their quality wins would most likely be BYU, Washington, Virginia, Colorado State, Air Force, Utah State and whoever they beat for the MWC title.
Nothing outstanding about it, but nothing horrible like Marshall last year.
Solid enough schedule so that if they were 13-0 and there were no undefeated P5 teams and only a couple of 1 loss teams, they might have a shot.
Their good fortune is that they begin the season in the Top 25, so not as much mountain to climb.
IMO
Boise. Maybe Marshall. And we have to beat Cincy and UCF for the conference first. Lets not put the cart before the horse guys.
(08-19-2015 12:26 PM)WColt45 Wrote: [ -> ]Lets not put the cart before the horse guys.
I understand, but fans - unlike coaches and players -may speculate about the future without harming game outcomes.