Just kind of expanding on what's being "thrown against the wall" as possibilities.
Here's the scenario: Oklahoma and Kansas jump to the B1G. Texas gets the same Notre Dame deal with the ACC. We'll say it happens for the 2017 season.
Left in the Big12 are: WVU, TTU, Baylor, TCU, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, and Iowa State. There are no initial offers for any of them for 2017, so they have to invite new schools to stay viable (8 is the NCAA minimum) and secure NCAA credits and fees paid by the leaving 3 for doing so. 2018 is the quickest any of them can jump ship.
Politics: Despite OSU's bigger budget, WVU suddenly becomes the biggest national "name-brand" of the 7. They're also on a geographic island, east of everyone.
Is expansion steered towards favoring WVU, who could potentially be an expansion target of the SEC eventually? Or do the other 6 steer it towards existing geography and maybe older alliances? Or just grab TV markets?
If towards appeasing WVU, Cincy, UConn, ECU, Temple, and maybe UMass, NIU, Army, and Navy become candidates.
If towards geography, Houston, SMU, Tulane, Memphis, and maybe USM and La Tech.
If towards TV markets, UCF, USF, and maybe ODU, Charlotte, and UTSA.
Do you expand by 1, 3, 5, 7, or even 9?
Call in whatever you like, the Big12 would be vastly weakened, but would be set to survive. Fallout would rumble into the G5 and possibly kill a conference like the Sunbelt.
WVU joins AAC with Cincy, UConn and Temple, since that's no worse than the "Remainder XII" and much better travel.
"Remainder XII" add Houston (to replace Texas) and BYU. They stay alive at eight and then figure it out from there.
WVU loses NCAA credit money for doing that.
NIU hype traaaaaiiiinnnnn
(08-04-2015 01:09 PM)USM@FTL Wrote: [ -> ]WVU loses NCAA credit money for doing that.
That didn't stop their AD from pushing over small children to run over to the XII when it looked like that was their only way off the Big East sinking ship.
I'm sure the current Big East is enjoying whatever credits WV earned previously.
In the scenario described I think there's a pretty good chance WVU ends up in the SEC, along with one other Big XII school
That would put the ACC, B1G and SEC all at 16 teams (albeit 2 of the ACC teams would be partial members)
(08-04-2015 12:41 PM)USM@FTL Wrote: [ -> ]Just kind of expanding on what's being "thrown against the wall" as possibilities.
Here's the scenario: Oklahoma and Kansas jump to the B1G. Texas gets the same Notre Dame deal with the ACC. We'll say it happens for the 2017 season.
Left in the Big12 are: WVU, TTU, Baylor, TCU, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, and Iowa State. There are no initial offers for any of them for 2017, so they have to invite new schools to stay viable (8 is the NCAA minimum) and secure NCAA credits and fees paid by the leaving 3 for doing so. 2018 is the quickest any of them can jump ship.
Politics: Despite OSU's bigger budget, WVU suddenly becomes the biggest national "name-brand" of the 7. They're also on a geographic island, east of everyone.
Is expansion steered towards favoring WVU, who could potentially be an expansion target of the SEC eventually? Or do the other 6 steer it towards existing geography and maybe older alliances? Or just grab TV markets?
If towards appeasing WVU, Cincy, UConn, ECU, Temple, and maybe UMass, NIU, Army, and Navy become candidates.
If towards geography, Houston, SMU, Tulane, Memphis, and maybe USM and La Tech.
If towards TV markets, UCF, USF, and maybe ODU, Charlotte, and UTSA.
Do you expand by 1, 3, 5, 7, or even 9?
Call in whatever you like, the Big12 would be vastly weakened, but would be set to survive. Fallout would rumble into the G5 and possibly kill a conference like the Sunbelt.
This would be the best scenario for Boise.
They would have to make football as strong as possible to try to stay a power conference after the 12 year contract ends. They would add Boise and BYU. Probably Houston to strengthen them in Texas, Cincinnati to make WVU happy and one other. More likely UCF for football instead of UConn.
If this happens in 2017, then the Sugar Bowl tie-in is intact for a few more years, as well as a number of bowls much more lucrative and higher profile than anything the American can offer, so its the remains of the Big12 that drives the now-Group-of-Six realignment.
WVU isn't going to the SEC, so they certainly take UC. After that, it could be USF/UCF who make a reasonable pair of travel partners for the rest of the schools, and Houston because they were down to three Texas schools.
Then they talk to their media partner whether to add one more and stop at 12 or to add three more and stop at 14.
(08-04-2015 01:25 PM)BruceMcF Wrote: [ -> ]If this happens in 2017, then the Sugar Bowl tie-in is intact for a few more years, as well as a number of bowls much more lucrative and higher profile than anything the American can offer, so its the remains of the Big12 that drives the now-Group-of-Six realignment.
WVU isn't going to the SEC, so they certainly take UC. After that, it could be USF/UCF who make a reasonable pair of travel partners for the rest of the schools, and Houston because they were down to three Texas schools.
Then they talk to their media partner whether to add one more and stop at 12 or to add three more and stop at 14.
Wouldn't surprise me if the tie-in contracts with the XII, particularly the Sugar Bowl, have escape clauses for if the XII loses significant members.
I think they would go to 16 just like the ACC and Big Ten and become the Big XVI
Iowa State
Kansas State
Oklahoma State
Texas Tech
TCU
Baylor
(SMU)
(Houston)
West Virginia
(Cincinnati)
(Memphis)
(East Carolina)
(UCF)
(South Florida)
(Connecticut)
(Temple)
The would probably lose two more schools to the SEC then they would back fill with NIU, Old Dominion, Charlotte, Tulane, Tulsa, Souther Miss, or Louisiana.
7 division games 1 cross over game. Championship held on Campus for football. Memphis for basketball tournament.
(08-04-2015 12:41 PM)USM@FTL Wrote: [ -> ]Left in the Big12 are: WVU, TTU, Baylor, TCU, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, and Iowa State.
Schools added (in no particular order)
1. Houston
2. Cincinnati
3. Memphis
4. UCF
5. UConn
6. USF
7. ECU
Obviously BYU (and at a geographic stretch Boise) is more than worthy but with WVU still in the fold a push to the East is what is warranted.
West Division: Texas Tech, Baylor, Oklahoma State, Houston, TCU, Memphis, and Kansas State
East Division: Iowa State, Cincinnati, West Virginia, UCF, USF, ECU, and UConn.
(08-04-2015 12:41 PM)USM@FTL Wrote: [ -> ]Just kind of expanding on what's being "thrown against the wall" as possibilities.
Here's the scenario: Oklahoma and Kansas jump to the B1G. Texas gets the same Notre Dame deal with the ACC. We'll say it happens for the 2017 season.
Left in the Big12 are: WVU, TTU, Baylor, TCU, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, and Iowa State. There are no initial offers for any of them for 2017, so they have to invite new schools to stay viable (8 is the NCAA minimum) and secure NCAA credits and fees paid by the leaving 3 for doing so. 2018 is the quickest any of them can jump ship.
Politics: Despite OSU's bigger budget, WVU suddenly becomes the biggest national "name-brand" of the 7. They're also on a geographic island, east of everyone.
Is expansion steered towards favoring WVU, who could potentially be an expansion target of the SEC eventually? Or do the other 6 steer it towards existing geography and maybe older alliances? Or just grab TV markets?
If towards appeasing WVU, Cincy, UConn, ECU, Temple, and maybe UMass, NIU, Army, and Navy become candidates.
If towards geography, Houston, SMU, Tulane, Memphis, and maybe USM and La Tech.
If towards TV markets, UCF, USF, and maybe ODU, Charlotte, and UTSA.
Do you expand by 1, 3, 5, 7, or even 9?
Call in whatever you like, the Big12 would be vastly weakened, but would be set to survive. Fallout would rumble into the G5 and possibly kill a conference like the Sunbelt.
I do not blame you for trying to include your school, Southern Miss into the mix. However, I do not think any of what you suggest is likely to happen.
First, I doubt any school in the Big12 is interested in "appeasing" West Virginia and I do not think West Virginia expects any favors. They came into the Big12 with both eyes open.
Second, if OU, KU, and UT did leave................ out of all the potential expansion schools you mention only Cincy, Houston and SMU would get an invite IMO.
I believe the remaining Big12 schools would take BYU, Air Force, Houston, SMU and Cincy to get to 12. The others you mentioned chances I would say are slim and none, except possibly Memphis.
If West Virginia also leaves, then I would look for Memphis or Boise to get an invite.
Oklahoma State
TCU
Texas Tech
Baylor
Kansas State
Iowa State
West Virginia
Cincinnati
Temple
UMass
Connecticut
East Carolina
This would be an exceptional basketball conference. UMass would need to get their stadium situation fixed.
(08-04-2015 01:36 PM)GO Coogs GO!!! Wrote: [ -> ]Obviously BYU (and at a geographic stretch Boise) is more than worthy but with WVU still in the fold a push to the East is what is warranted.
But while UC would be travel partners for the other six going to WVU, and a reasonably close school as far as WVU is concerned, UConn is pushing past what does much good for WVU.
They might go to UConn, if ISU pushes for an expansion to bolster the "new, new Big12's" BBall RPI.
(08-04-2015 01:42 PM)BruceMcF Wrote: [ -> ] (08-04-2015 01:36 PM)GO Coogs GO!!! Wrote: [ -> ]Obviously BYU (and at a geographic stretch Boise) is more than worthy but with WVU still in the fold a push to the East is what is warranted.
But while UC would be travel partners for the other six going to WVU, and a reasonably close school as far as WVU is concerned, UConn is pushing past what does much good for WVU.
They might go to UConn, if ISU pushes for an expansion to bolster the "new, new Big12's" BBall RPI.
I was thinking of the best option in the east. UConn, considering other schools (options) and their basketball programs is by far the best.
With an emphasis on the east it's not as bad as it would be to add them now to the B12.
BYU, Boise, and a number of schools have better football but none have a better overall athletic program than the Huskies. Some might be as good (BYU is debatable but none surpasses them)
We're a long-shot, especially with WVU in the mix. If WVU could get to the SEC, that would cut the other 6 free to re-setup geographically. We fit geographically with Memphis, Tulane, and Houston.
The MWC could potentially be stronger than anything the Big 12 recovers with. BYU and UTEP could further solidify them. I don't think BYU would look as favorably upon the Big 12 without OU, KU, and UT being there.
Staying within your hypothetical guidelines.....
I think the Big XII would backfill to 12 immediately. I think all of the big name G5 schools would get invited, and BYU would probably be at the top of the list....
They would need 5 schools to get to 12: BYU, Houston, Cincinnati, UCF, East Carolina.
These are the best candidates when you incorporate the 3 main ingredients, Football Strength, Market, and Content
They would break out into East West Divisions
Big XII East
TCU
Baylor
West Virginia
East Carolina
Cincinnati
UCF
Big XII West
Iowa St.
BYU
Kansas St.
Oklahoma St.
Houston
Texas Tech
This would immediately provide stability, but I don't think it would be long before they also grabbed Boise State and UConn....
Down the line, they'd be looking at #15 and #16....who knows at that point, maybe San Diego State and Colorado State
(08-04-2015 01:46 PM)GO Coogs GO!!! Wrote: [ -> ] (08-04-2015 01:42 PM)BruceMcF Wrote: [ -> ] (08-04-2015 01:36 PM)GO Coogs GO!!! Wrote: [ -> ]Obviously BYU (and at a geographic stretch Boise) is more than worthy but with WVU still in the fold a push to the East is what is warranted.
But while UC would be travel partners for the other six going to WVU, and a reasonably close school as far as WVU is concerned, UConn is pushing past what does much good for WVU.
They might go to UConn, if ISU pushes for an expansion to bolster the "new, new Big12's" BBall RPI.
I was thinking of the best option in the east. UConn, considering other schools (options) and their basketball programs is by far the best.
With an emphasis on the east it's not as bad as it would be to add them now to the B12.
BYU, Boise, and a number of schools have better football but none have a better overall athletic program than the Huskies. Some might be as good (BYU is debatable but none surpasses them)
no one cares about better overall athletic program
football and markets drive the bus....they'd be looking to backfill football power
(08-04-2015 03:05 PM)EvilVodka Wrote: [ -> ]no one cares about better overall athletic program
football and markets drive the bus....they'd be looking to backfill football power
In that league there are enough strong football programs to support an (as it sits today) average football program.
I would prefer to have BYU over UConn but given the OP's question my response is that they would expand from Texas to the East.
BYU, Boise, Etc. do not fit that profile.
And if you think overall athletic programs health is dismissed immediately you're only kidding yourself.
BYU would bring a solid basketball program but nothing of the caliber of UConn.
"If" the OP's scenario happened I think it goes down the way I proposed. I could easily swap BYU for UConn and slide Memphis to the eastern division but again I was answering the question and my opinion is they go east.
Bottom line there are not any better options east of the Mississippi than UConn after you add the schools I proposed.
Who do you think would be added over UConn in an eastern expansion/rebuild?
(08-04-2015 12:41 PM)USM@FTL Wrote: [ -> ]Just kind of expanding on what's being "thrown against the wall" as possibilities.
Here's the scenario: Oklahoma and Kansas jump to the B1G. Texas gets the same Notre Dame deal with the ACC. We'll say it happens for the 2017 season.
In your scenario, West Virginia is not only furthest out on an island, but you describe them as having a foot out the door. So I don't think the specifically try to appease them. If I had to guess, they would identify the teams that most make sense for them, the top two or three teams, then devise a strategy from there. For example if BYU is the team they put at the top of the list, then they begin to steer west, which is less competitive, with the other three power conference in two time zones. If they think Cincinnati is the best option, then they start looking more towards Cincy, and maybe UConn, and decide who else fits in, maybe Memphis, larger market teams, and so forth. If they think UCF and/or USF are the way to go, then it gets interesting. Because then what? Of if they think more Texas schools may help, again it changes the dynamic.
There are more questions than answers, but I think in the scenario you lay out, West Virginia becomes sort of a non-issue. Because if you expand for them specifically, and then they bail (think the Big East and Boise St and the attempts to get BYU), then you are left with mismatched parts.