CSNbbs

2015 Free Agents:

Marc Gasol --
Kosta Kufos --
Russ Smith ($845k Team Option)
JaMychal Green ($845k Team Option)
Nick Calathes ($1.2M Qualifying Offer)
Jeff Green ($9.2M Player Option)
John Luer ($1.03M Team Option)
Beno Udrih ($2.07M Player Option)

Marc will battle LaMarcus Aldridge for the most coveted player on the market. He wants to stay in Memphis by all accounts, the real question is ...for how much & how long? Also, what happens with jeff Green? He won't get $9M per year on the market, but he could get a longer deal and the promise of more playing time with another team.

For the purpose of this argument let's say we we sign Marc to the max @ $21.6M/year (for 3 years). FWIW I doubt it'll cost THAT much, nor should it. Also, let's assume Green opts in on his PO and remains with the team. Same for Beno.

Assuming that's the case - we'll be paying approx. $66M in salary on just 10 players (the luxury tax kicks in around $77M) That would give us approx. $11M to spend on 3-5 free agents.

Now...

We do have to conserve some of the money in order to keep Conley in 2016-17. Conley currently gets paid less than $10M per year, which is an absolute bargain!

We can expect Conley to jump up to $12-13M per year.

In addition to Conley, we will have to decide if we want to re-sign Courtney Lee. Market price for a player of his caliber at that position is $5-6M per year (what he's making now). He'll be 30 years old after next year and, to date, he only averages 10 ppg. However, his 3pt. numbers are good and this team can't afford to lose what little perimeter shooting we have.

BUT, we do have a first round draft pick that would be going into his 3rd year after next season that could be ready to see a jump in minutes/production. AND BECAUSE OF THAT, I say we let Lee walk after next year in favor of Jordan Adams.

Adams will be making less than $2M per season & Jeff Green - should we choose to keep him after his contract expires next season - won't be making $9M per year anymore. So, those future savings should allow us to use MOST of our $11M in cap space this off-season without any worries.

So...with Marc on board, our attention should turn to securing Kosta Koufos. He's one of the best back-up Centers in the league and is a perfect fit for what we do. Kosta currently makes $3M per year (a bargain), but the market value for a player of his caliber at his position is closer to $5-$6M per year. IMO, we should pony up and keep Kosta at that price.

At that point I would decline to extend a QO to Calathes, especially IF you think Russ Smith can handle 3rd string PG duties @ less than $1M per year. As good as Calathes has been at running the team in spots, he cannot keep a defense honest with his shooting and can't guard quicker guards. I'm not saying he doesn't have value - he wouldn't cost us too much - but the 3rd string PG spot could be a valuable spot to develop a young guy. Especially with a vet like Beno backing up Mike.

I would also let Luer walk - we have JaMychal Green and Jarnell Stokes who can both play 3rd string PF (Jeff Green can play backup 4 when ZBo goes to the bench).

That being said, we keep Russ Smith and JaMychal Green for $1.7M combined.

After all the dust settles, our 2015-16 roster would look like this:

PG: Mike Conley / Beno Udrih / Russ Smith
SG: Courtney Lee / Jordan Adams / Vince Carter
SF: Tony Allen / Jeff Green
PF: Zach Randolph / JaMychal Green / Jarnell Stokes
C: Marc Gasol / Kosta Koufos

That's 13 players under contract with approx. $4M to spare - before hitting the luxury tax. BUT, we have 1 draft pick. 1st Round will cost us approx. $1M, SO...we really have a $3M cushion after everything is all said & done.

As far as the draft pick go (I am going to post a thread closer to draft day) I think we should - and will - look towards the future. Jeff Green may be gone. I don't expect Lee to be here after next year. Vince is old. And our power forwards are both 2nd rounders...

I think it's time (next season) to get Jordan Adams some regular rotation minutes. He could be the type of shooter we've been missing. We'll have to make a spot for our 1st round draft pick (#25). It wouldn't surprise me for them to let JaMychal Green walk since he's on a non guaranteed. I think Calathes goes back to Europe. As much as I'd like to keep him, Koufos will probably get a nice bump in pay, from someone else. Robin Lopez is on the market and can probably be got cheaper than Koufos. Like you said, Leuer is probably gone. We could be looking at three, maybe four spots to fill. Don't think we have a 2nd round pick, although with all the draft night wrangling it wouldn't surprise me to see us land one.

(05-08-2015 03:41 PM)UofMark Wrote: [ -> ]As much as I'd like to keep him, Koufos will probably get a nice bump in pay, from someone else.

I could see that. Kosta is currently the 39th highest paid center in the NBA. I guess he could start for some teams, but I do think his value is as a premier backup center who can step in "in case of emergency"...

If he's a premier backup, he'll get $5-$6M per year and we can afford that - especially if Mark takes $18.5M instead of $20M+

I wouldn't blame Gasol if he takes a 1 year max deal wait for the CBA to leap up.

Anything to keep Marc from being a Spur....

(05-10-2015 06:57 PM)mapdude Wrote: [ -> ]Anything to keep Marc from being a Spur....

I think Aldridge will keep that from happening. He's who they seem to want

Rockets spend millions to sign a paper superstar, Dallas spends millions for Rondo and Parsons.....

Buyer beware

I hope we can keep Marc away from the Spurs. I don't relish Aldridge going there either, but if it helps us keep Marc, so be it. I've always thought Alrdridge was going to be a great player...I wish he'd go to the East.

I think Jeff Green likes his role...at least I've gotten that impression so far. He doesn't appear to want to be "the man" and doesn't seem to mind coming off the bench (he requested it) and being the 2nd squad go-to. I think with an offseason with the team; he'd be a very dangerous 6th man.

Calathes...I'd wish him well but let him walk.

Koufos...like Jeff Green I think he likes his role and he gets ample PT. I guess the dollars and cents might factor in.

Overall, I think it's a strong analysis.

(05-11-2015 11:18 AM)99Tiger Wrote: [ -> ]I hope we can keep Marc away from the Spurs. I don't relish Aldridge going there either, but if it helps us keep Marc, so be it. I've always thought Alrdridge was going to be a great player...I wish he'd go to the East.

I think Jeff Green likes his role...at least I've gotten that impression so far. He doesn't appear to want to be "the man" and doesn't seem to mind coming off the bench (he requested it) and being the 2nd squad go-to. I think with an offseason with the team; he'd be a very dangerous 6th man.

Calathes...I'd wish him well but let him walk.

Koufos...like Jeff Green I think he likes his role and he gets ample PT. I guess the dollars and cents might factor in.

Overall, I think it's a strong analysis.

Thanks!

After we secure Marc I think Kosta needs to be an important target. He does so much for us off the bench & in a pinch. IMO, Green would be nice to keep IF he is okay with being a 6th man AND he takes less $. I think the market will dictate the money situation, but he will have to decide if he wants to go somewhere and get more playing time or come off the bench here

Do we have two draft picks next season?

I like Kosta a lot. If for some reason, Marc is not here next year, then I think he could make a great starting center in a re-tooled offense.

But the odds are Marc is not going to take anything less than a max deal, which is what the open market is willing to offer. If he does that, we can't afford to pay our 2 centers $30 million or more per year. Kosta will take the best offer he can find, which will be much more than $5 million.

It might not be a bad idea to think about drafting Kosta's replacement. There are some legit center prospects in this draft.

...but do you really think any legit center prospects will fall down to where the Grizzlies will be drafting? Legit centers are in such short supply they tend to be overpriced and overdrafted.

(05-11-2015 12:25 PM)TigerNK Wrote: [ -> ]Kosta will take the best offer he can find, which will be much more than $5 million.

I just don't believe that. That would likely mean he's a Top 20 center in the league - or he'd be getting paid like one.

In order (based on salary) :

Howard
Bosh
Gasol
B. Lopez
Hibbert
Chandler
Cousins
A. Jefferson
Nene
Bogut
Noah
Pekovic
Garnett
Horford
D. Jordan
Gortat
Varejao
Splitter
J. Hill
Asik


They all make $8.3M or more per year. Centers making that money are starters - the other 10 starters making less than that are right around $5M. So...if KK leaves it'll be to start, NOT a big pay day IMO.

(05-11-2015 01:18 PM)99Tiger Wrote: [ -> ]...but do you really think any legit center prospects will fall down to where the Grizzlies will be drafting? Legit centers are in such short supply they tend to be overpriced and overdrafted.

I would love to draft a backup center or PF so that they can play in the D-League all season.

Wait? No Aldridge on that list? Travesty.

Oh...I looked and he is listed as a PF (making >$15M). At 6'11", I think of him as a C in today's league. Wait...in what universe is he a PF and Bosh a C?

(05-11-2015 04:18 PM)99Tiger Wrote: [ -> ]Wait? No Aldridge on that list? Travesty.

Oh...I looked and he is listed as a PF (making >$15M). At 6'11", I think of him as a C in today's league. Wait...in what universe is he a PF and Bosh a C?

A center is the guy that does the jump ball and the beginning of the game. That's about the only way I can tell nowadays.

(05-11-2015 04:23 PM)mairving Wrote: [ -> ]

(05-11-2015 04:18 PM)99Tiger Wrote: [ -> ]Wait? No Aldridge on that list? Travesty.

Oh...I looked and he is listed as a PF (making >$15M). At 6'11", I think of him as a C in today's league. Wait...in what universe is he a PF and Bosh a C?

A center is the guy that does the jump ball and the beginning of the game. That's about the only way I can tell nowadays.

It's definitely less of a big man's league than it used to be. However, the "Smash Brothers" are showing you can still win that way instead of the guard-oriented small ball a lot of teams play.

If our roster looks the same I'll be upset. We have to shake things up a little bit if we want to truly compete. I have said this a million times, we need scorers off the bench. Go get some dudes that can hit threes. It's really frustrating that this has been an issue for 5 years but has barely been addressed. Jeff Green isn't helping. Vince isn't helping. Nick isn't helping. I love Beno to death but he is so easy to shut down. It's not just shooting; we could use some athleticism to change the pace. It's been a great dimension but we are so one dimensional it's painful to watch games like this. The wake up call should have been after the Spurs sweep so I'm assuming it won't happen, but I'm hopeful.

(05-14-2015 12:09 AM)Rob Wrote: [ -> ]If our roster looks the same I'll be upset. We have to shake things up a little bit if we want to truly compete.

I'm holding out hope that we can still win a championship with the lineup this year.

That notwithstanding, I agree with what you said 100%. It's excruciating to be almost good enough for a long period of time. The Tigers did the same thing to us in 06-08.

EDIT: That feels like I'm complaining and I'm not. I'm very grateful for the competitiveness and the fun that's come from the Grizz the last few years.