I’m bored, play along…
Let’s say Josh lands an impact grad-transfer guard for next year (or Kedren becomes the Kedren of old). The Lawsons come in and have a solid freshmen season. Everybody else progresses to some degree – Austin take “the next step”.
Let’s say we finish behind SMU, UConn, and Cincinnati in the AAC (23 total wins or so), win 1 or 2 AAC tourney games and are considered a “bubble team” come March. RPI somewhere in the 60s...a few surprise wins, a couple questionable losses.
We make the First Four and win our play-in game as a 10 or 11 seed. THEN we upset the 6 or 7 seed in the Round of 64. In the Round of 32 we are competitive, but fall short to a proven coach (Izzo, Bennett, Pitino, etc.) – we don’t get blown out. Single-digit loss, comes down to the wire a la Arizona in 2010.
Also, let's say Josh has the #25 class coming in for 2016 (for the purposes of this post)
Does Josh get another year? Is that considered a “successful” year?
Discuss…
It's a successful year but the overall body of work, and more importantly, the remaining roster and prospects do not justify another year. We will lose Shaq, Burrell, Kedren, Hawkins, Cunningham and possibly Austin. Unless recruiting improves 2017 is going to be at least a slight rebuild.
(03-31-2015 01:48 PM)HometownTiger Wrote: [ -> ]I’m bored, play along…
Let’s say Josh lands an impact grad-transfer guard for next year (or Kedren becomes the Kedren of old). The Lawsons come in and have a solid freshmen season. Everybody else progresses to some degree – Austin take “the next step”.
Let’s say we finish behind SMU, UConn, and Cincinnati in the AAC (23 total wins or so), win 1 or 2 AAC tourney games and are considered a “bubble team” come March. RPI somewhere in the 60s...a few surprise wins, a couple questionable losses.
We make the First Four and win our play-in game as a 10 or 11 seed. THEN we upset the 6 or 7 seed in the Round of 64. In the Round of 32 we are competitive, but fall short to a proven coach (Izzo, Bennett, Pitino, etc.) – we don’t get blown out. Single-digit loss, comes down to the wire a la Arizona in 2010.
Also, let's say Josh has the #25 class coming in for 2016 (for the purposes of this post)
Does Josh get another year? Is that considered a “successful” year?
Discuss…
If next year plays out something like that then I'd think Pastner coming back for year 8 would depend on:
1. Does he get any other viable job offers?
2. Who else is available that we might be able to land?
Not knowing how the schedule is but you said:
-Austin takes the next step
-Everyone else progresses
-Lawsons are solid
-Good Grad transfer or Kedren is like old kedren
I can't see how we would be a bubble team even with Josh as coach
Not knowing how the schedule is but you said:
-Austin takes the next step
-Everyone else progresses
-Lawsons are solid
-Good Grad transfer or Kedren is like old kedren
I can't see how we would be a bubble team even with Josh as coach
I feel like we're destined for something similar to this. Stuck in the mud of mediocrity.
(03-31-2015 02:17 PM)bluebacker Wrote: [ -> ]If next year plays out something like that then I'd think Pastner coming back for year 8 would depend on:
1. Does he get any other viable job offers?
2. Who else is available that we might be able to land?
I think Josh would get lots of opportunities to get the hell out of dodge after that hypothetical year.
A possible win-win for all concerned.
(03-31-2015 02:22 PM)cotton1991 Wrote: [ -> ] (03-31-2015 02:17 PM)bluebacker Wrote: [ -> ]If next year plays out something like that then I'd think Pastner coming back for year 8 would depend on:
1. Does he get any other viable job offers?
2. Who else is available that we might be able to land?
I think Josh would get lots of opportunities to get the hell out of dodge after that hypothetical year.
A possible win-win for all concerned.
This is the most likely scenario and everybody knows it (including recruits). It is being used to recruit against us. Regardless of the outcome of next season, Josh is most likely gone.
I disagree that Josh leaving next year is a win-win. If he left this year, I would call it a win-win. If he leaves next year, as planned and recruiting suffers, then we lose.
Pastner has a ceiling and he can't compete at the highest levels against the big boys. He has no in game adjustments or even a system in place. I really wouldn't mind that kind of year if I tbought guys were developing and we had a plan going forward but it really is just roll the ball out there and let's see what happens with him. Our guys look lost and confused most the time as does the coach. The results of the season doesn't change the fact that we have no plan, no system or anything that suggests we are getting better.
(03-31-2015 01:48 PM)HometownTiger Wrote: [ -> ]I’m bored, play along…
Let’s say Josh lands an impact grad-transfer guard for next year (or Kedren becomes the Kedren of old). The Lawsons come in and have a solid freshmen season. Everybody else progresses to some degree – Austin take “the next step”.
Let’s say we finish behind SMU, UConn, and Cincinnati in the AAC (23 total wins or so), win 1 or 2 AAC tourney games and are considered a “bubble team” come March. RPI somewhere in the 60s...a few surprise wins, a couple questionable losses.
We make the First Four and win our play-in game as a 10 or 11 seed. THEN we upset the 6 or 7 seed in the Round of 64. In the Round of 32 we are competitive, but fall short to a proven coach (Izzo, Bennett, Pitino, etc.) – we don’t get blown out. Single-digit loss, comes down to the wire a la Arizona in 2010.
Also, let's say Josh has the #25 class coming in for 2016 (for the purposes of this post)
Does Josh get another year? Is that considered a “successful” year?
Discuss…
I don't think this would be a successful year, but I don't think he would be fired.
(03-31-2015 02:31 PM)Halfcourt Wrote: [ -> ] (03-31-2015 02:22 PM)cotton1991 Wrote: [ -> ] (03-31-2015 02:17 PM)bluebacker Wrote: [ -> ]If next year plays out something like that then I'd think Pastner coming back for year 8 would depend on:
1. Does he get any other viable job offers?
2. Who else is available that we might be able to land?
I think Josh would get lots of opportunities to get the hell out of dodge after that hypothetical year.
A possible win-win for all concerned.
This is the most likely scenario and everybody knows it (including recruits). It is being used to recruit against us. Regardless of the outcome of next season, Josh is most likely gone.
I disagree that Josh leaving next year is a win-win. If he left this year, I would call it a win-win. If he leaves next year, as planned and recruiting suffers, then we lose.
For a while this is as good as it gets for Josh.. He isn't going to be recruited to a better or lateral school. He just isn't. As one poster said, there's not enough good body of work.. the same reason we still wouldn't want him, and other schools won't, is because he consistently doesn't meet or exceed expectations. That perception doesn't change in 1 year. There is an off chance he goes to a P5 school with little basketball history, (the Arizona State's of the world). But I really don't believe he is wanted even at those schools. IMO it is absolutely Sweet 16 or bust for Pastner.. I think it will be bust, I just see little to believe he can get us in a Sweet 16, and I think he ends up at Charleston North West Southern or something for a while. That job too will be limited. He has enough energy and charisma to stay somewhere in the NCAA basketball world, I just don't think it will be in a head coach capacity until he's alot older. Then for our Tigers, we will need a wow hire, it must be the WOW hire to get or keep any excitement as it relates to Tiger basketball. Pearlesque... Someone like that can turn a program around quick, all the while having excitement even in the rebuilding years. BTW, is the tell tell of a good coach, you will see flashes of good even in the rebuilding years..
(03-31-2015 02:31 PM)Halfcourt Wrote: [ -> ] (03-31-2015 02:22 PM)cotton1991 Wrote: [ -> ] (03-31-2015 02:17 PM)bluebacker Wrote: [ -> ]If next year plays out something like that then I'd think Pastner coming back for year 8 would depend on:
1. Does he get any other viable job offers?
2. Who else is available that we might be able to land?
I think Josh would get lots of opportunities to get the hell out of dodge after that hypothetical year.
A possible win-win for all concerned.
This is the most likely scenario and everybody knows it (including recruits). It is being used to recruit against us. Regardless of the outcome of next season, Josh is most likely gone.
I disagree that Josh leaving next year is a win-win. If he left this year, I would call it a win-win. If he leaves next year, as planned and recruiting suffers, then we lose.
^^^THIS
The Tigers will be good next year and Josh will be gone to a P5 school.
(03-31-2015 02:34 PM)jason80 Wrote: [ -> ]Pastner has a ceiling and he can't compete at the highest levels against the big boys. He has no in game adjustments or even a system in place. I really wouldn't mind that kind of year if I tbought guys were developing and we had a plan going forward but it really is just roll the ball out there and let's see what happens with him. Our guys look lost and confused most the time as does the coach. The results of the season doesn't change the fact that we have no plan, no system or anything that suggests we are getting better.
Except when he beats them. Of course.
What would be worse would be that Memphis limps along and has a unspectacular regular season. Losing a game or two that they could have/should have won. But still beat all the ooc patsies and AAC flotsam. Get in as a 10 seed, beat the seven and the 2 loses on the opposite side. Beat the 15 seed and get to the S16. Monkey off the back. Pastner has proven himself as a legit coach. Contract extension.
Just more of the same. After 7 years he will have had ample time to "learn on the job" and get to the next level, but he will not have done enough to deserve an eighth year IMO.
I remember someone, maybe Cal, making the remark back in the day that recruits coming up now don't know anything about NCAA tournaments that Memphis wasn't a big part of -- they were in 7th grade the last time it happened, or something like that. That was only a four-year run. We've been at this six years already.
Let's say we make a Sweet 16 next year and extend the status quo. What will the Memphis brand look like to recruits in year 8 or 9 when we're having this same discussion all over again? Will there even be any Memphis kids, by that time, who have ever in their life "dreamed" of playing for the Tigers, like Joe Jackson, Nick King, etc?
That's the kind of hypothetical I think about. We need some good news. We truly do.
(03-31-2015 02:34 PM)jason80 Wrote: [ -> ]Pastner has a ceiling and he can't compete at the highest levels against the big boys. He has no in game adjustments or even a system in place. I really wouldn't mind that kind of year if I tbought guys were developing and we had a plan going forward but it really is just roll the ball out there and let's see what happens with him. Our guys look lost and confused most the time as does the coach. The results of the season doesn't change the fact that we have no plan, no system or anything that suggests we are getting better.
Winner winner chicken dinner
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I played this type scenario out in my head this last year and we missed the NIT.
When is pastner going to have a better team than he had 2 years ago? Deemed by everyone in America to be the best backcourt in America. When is he going to have that or the equivalent to that again?
Why delay the inevitable?
Either get rid of him now or let him ride his salary out. Bring his salary back down to earth and lets watch the young man learn to Coach here. Keep him forever. He will eventually learn that a lot of kids don't self motivate and how to get kids to play hard heady ball for him as a Head Coach.
Unless he is handicapped mentally (which sometimes I think he might be) he can learn on the job. Or he'll destroy our bball program.
If your going to pass on some of these great hires and just role with Pastner for another year. Why role with him for just 1?
(03-31-2015 03:38 PM)salukiblue Wrote: [ -> ]What would be worse would be that Memphis limps along and has a unspectacular regular season. Losing a game or two that they could have/should have won. But still beat all the ooc patsies and AAC flotsam. Get in as a 10 seed, beat the seven and the 2 loses on the opposite side. Beat the 15 seed and get to the S16. Monkey off the back. Pastner has proven himself as a legit coach. Contract extension.
Nah, if that happens he'll just pull a Cuonzo.