Below is recruiting report I put together for the MAC this year. My apologies that this is later than normal but I’ve been traveling for work. Since I no longer post on my VanDelaySports.com site this is not to the level I used to cover MAC football recruiting but I do follow the same disciplines as in previous years.
I take about dozen sources which include but are not limited to…Hustlebelt, Rivals, Scout, ESPN, Recruit 24/7, Freep Fab 50, and score the prospects in Excel and then do my rankings. It’s tedious but enjoyable. What’s amazing to me is how some prospects differ greatly from site to site and often their so call “offers” do not even match up.
As we all know these are kids ranging from 17-21 years old so anything can and usually does happen during their career so there is no clear cut formula to accurately predict or really rank these classes. Still, it’s a fun exercise so feel free to read and respond accordingly. Enjoy.
-Nick-
2015 Class Rankings
1 Western Michigan
2 NIU
3 Toledo
4 Miami
5 Ohio
6 Ball St.
7 BGSU
8 Central Michigan
9 Kent St.
10 U-Mass
11 Eastern Michigan
12 Buffalo
13 Akron
Player Pos Ht Wt Hometown School
1 Spencer Tears WR 6'2" 175 Oak Lawn, IL NIU
2 Deontai Williams S 6'1''' 185 Jacksonville, FL Ohio
3 LeVante Bellamy WR 5'11" 185 Indianapolis, IN Western Michigan
4 Chris Green LB 6'0" 230 Toledo, OH Toledo
5 Justin Tranquill DB 5'11" 185 Huntertown, IN Western Michigan
6 James Morgan QB 6'4" 215 Ashwubenon, WI BG
7 Billy Bahl QB 6'4" 214 Woodstock, IL Miami
8 Jeff Christian CB 5'10" 165 Cincinnati, OH Ohio
9 Juantez McRae S 5'11" 175 Reistertown, MD Kent St
10 Wesley French OL 6'5" 300 Benton Harbor, MI Western Michigan
11 DJ Brown RB 5'9" 177 North Little Rock, AR NIU
12 Aaron Covington CB 5'9" 175 Tampa, FL Toledo
13 John Keenoy OL 6'3" 285 Kentwood, MI Western Michigan
14 Darrion Landry WR 6'2" 200 Baytown, TX Toledo
15 Jonathan Hawkins RB 5'11" 212 Lawrenceville, GA Buffalo
16 Ian Leever OL 6'6" 295 Loveland, OH Miami
17 Sekai Lindsay RB 5'10" 205 Melbourne, FL UMass
18 Elijah Ball WR 6'1''' 185 Cincinnati, OH Ohio
19 Junior McMullen LB 6'2" 225 Oak Park, MI Miami
20 PJ Simmons RB 5'11" 181 Tallahassee, FL Kent St
21 Riley Neal QB 6'5'' 211 Yorktown, IN Ball St
22 Kevin Thurmon DL 6'1''' 271 South Holland, IL Ball St
23 Mike Danna DL 6'2" 223 Detroit, MI Central Michigan
24 Maurice Thomas RB 6'0" 170 Oxford, OH Miami
25 Reche Thomas OL 6'4" 325 Vero Beach, FL UMass
26 Antonyo Sotolongo DB 6'0" 200 Miami, FL BG
27 Breck Turner RB 6'0" 190 Norwalk, OH Eastern Michigan
28 Mitchell Guidagni QB 6'2" 190 Hudson, OH Toledo
29 Kyle Pugh LB 6'1''' 215 Chicago Hts., IL NIU
30 Kwanii Figueroa DT 6'2" 277 Fair Lawn, NJ Eastern Michigan
Amazing that a player that was only highly rated by one service, was not
an early commit, and didn't have a single P5 offer is in your top 5.
(02-15-2015 08:56 AM)Boca Rocket Wrote: [ -> ]Amazing that a player that was only highly rated by one service, was not
an early commit, and didn't have a single P5 offer is in your top 5.
Who is that?
I leave recruiting rankings to the recruiting sites.
For instance, Toledo is almost always near the top and BSU is usually middle of the pack in recruiting but the games over the last 6-7 years have been really competitive.
NIU is another story.
(02-15-2015 08:46 PM)Frozenbaugh Wrote: [ -> ]I leave recruiting rankings to the recruiting sites.
For instance, Toledo is almost always near the top and BSU is usually middle of the pack in recruiting but the games over the last 6-7 years have been really competitive.
NIU is another story.
Since Amstutz left, Rockets are 4-2 against BSU and are 35-13 in the MAC(including 5 Conference losses in Beckman's first season}.
BSU is 2-4 against UT and 25-23 in the Conference.BSU's 2009 Class was ranked above Toledo's and the 2010 Class, which had players like Keith Wenning in it, was #3 in the MAC West. They resulted in BSU's 6-2 and 7-1 Conference records in 2012 and 2013 respectively.
I don't follow FB recruiting the way I used to but I suggest the way to do it (assuming we could get decent numbers).
I would come up with a weighted formula measuring ranking over 4 or even 5 year and applying weights (weights sum to 1 using the decimal fractions below):
E.g., current year's recruits (2015) = .10
Last year's recruits = .20
Two years ago = .30
Three years ago = .25
Four years ago = .15 (to account for 5th year players, e.g., redshirts)
I think I'd rank teams based on their 'average stars' and not total points.
What this formula does is give the most weight (importance) to recruiting classes say 3 years ago, i.e., the junior or redshirt sophomore classes.
I assume everyone would believe that in a given season, say 2015, the true juniors or redshirt sophs will make a much, much bigger contribution then true frosh.
True frosh, like Frankin, are the exception to the rule. Most are redshirted.
If I wanted to be 'lazy' I would try to correlate the 2013 rankings to predict 2015 success on the field.
I think the recruiting websites have really started to fall off on their coverage and accuracy in ranking players. I've seen multiple times where a zero star player gets an offer from a P5 and instantly becomes a 3 star, literally within minutes of the player tweeting that they got an offer. You're telling me they actually did research in those couple of minutes that changed the player from zero stars to 3?? Hahaha. I call shenanigans on that.
(02-16-2015 08:41 AM)EmeryZach Wrote: [ -> ]I think the recruiting websites have really started to fall off on their coverage and accuracy in ranking players. I've seen multiple times where a zero star player gets an offer from a P5 and instantly becomes a 3 star, literally within minutes of the player tweeting that they got an offer. You're telling me they actually did research in those couple of minutes that changed the player from zero stars to 3?? Hahaha. I call shenanigans on that.
Good catch. I wondered about that.
I've always enjoyed doing this for a variety of reasons...
First, not many people cover the MAC in football recruiting and a decade ago it was only the MAC Report Online (Dave) and me
Second, there are a lot on inaccuracies within each publication which is why I take a blended average across as many as publications I can find to develop a common ground number to compare and rank
More than anything does it show the hypocrisies of these sites as long time two star MAC prospects suddenly become three star prospects as they get poached by P5 programs the day before national signing day
At the end of the day it's quality conversation when the news is slow during the offseason. As we all know, the only way to properly evaluate a class is after a four or five year period from signing day.
(02-16-2015 02:15 PM)Nick in Cleveland Wrote: [ -> ]I've always enjoyed doing this for a variety of reasons...
First, not many people cover the MAC in football recruiting and a decade ago it was only the MAC Report Online (Dave) and me
Second, there are a lot on inaccuracies within each publication which is why I take a blended average across as many as publications I can find to develop a common ground number to compare and rank
More than anything does it show the hypocrisies of these sites as long time two star MAC prospects suddenly become three star prospects as they get poached by P5 programs the day before national signing day
At the end of the day it's quality conversation when the news is slow during the offseason. As we all know, the only way to properly evaluate a class is after a four or five year period from signing day.
I believe you can evaluate a class after 2 complete seasons in a program. If at the start of a class's 3rd year in they have few starters or contributors then it's not been a successful one or if a program has either continued to lose or just not improved.
Rivals does seem to acknowledge that MAC recruiting has improved in that they nor rank MAC recruiting classes among the top 10 in the G5. Better G5 classes are at least ranked ahead of some P5 programs but not as many as their should be.
I do hope that the conference recruiting coordinators continue to push the conference recruiting areas out a bit into non MAC states like VA, MD, NJ, PA, WI, MN, MO, KS, TX.
A conference too dependent on 2 or 3 states will have a tough time come bowl time.
290 MAC commits with 57 OH, 45 MI and 15 IN. 40% from 3 states. Surprising that only 10 came from PA, 2 MN, 1 DC, 6 MD, 3 Mass, 4 NJ, 1 VA, 2 NC, 2 KS, 4 MO & 6 TX.
(02-16-2015 02:56 PM)Policiious Wrote: [ -> ]I do hope that the conference recruiting coordinators continue to push the conference recruiting areas out a bit into non MAC states like VA, MD, NJ, PA, WI, MN, MO, KS, TX.
A conference too dependent on 2 or 3 states will have a tough time come bowl time.
290 MAC commits with 57 OH, 45 MI and 15 IN. 40% from 3 states. Surprising that only 10 came from PA, 2 MN, 1 DC, 6 MD, 3 Mass, 4 NJ, 1 VA, 2 NC, 2 KS, 4 MO & 6 TX.
I know Fleck has emphasized a "6-hour radius" for recruiting. 80% of our 2015 recruits come from Michigan. I know CMU usually has a clause where the coach gets more money for signing kids from Michigan. ADs want local kids I guess.
(02-16-2015 03:52 PM)ColinApocalypse Wrote: [ -> ]I know CMU usually has a clause where the coach gets more money for signing kids from Michigan. ADs want local kids I guess.
Kent State has had that clause too, but it seems Paul Haynes figured he needed to go out of state to fill holes and forego the bonus. In-state tuition is much cheaper so the cost of attendance is much cheaper for a local kid so they encourage coaches with a bonus.
Thanks for the post Nick - I think the MAC did well in recruiting and the under appreciated teams could be Ohio & UMASS. The two 6'4 QBs could unfortunately be a problem for the rest of us. I think they are SOLID.
(02-16-2015 03:52 PM)ColinApocalypse Wrote: [ -> ] (02-16-2015 02:56 PM)Policiious Wrote: [ -> ]I do hope that the conference recruiting coordinators continue to push the conference recruiting areas out a bit into non MAC states like VA, MD, NJ, PA, WI, MN, MO, KS, TX.
A conference too dependent on 2 or 3 states will have a tough time come bowl time.
290 MAC commits with 57 OH, 45 MI and 15 IN. 40% from 3 states. Surprising that only 10 came from PA, 2 MN, 1 DC, 6 MD, 3 Mass, 4 NJ, 1 VA, 2 NC, 2 KS, 4 MO & 6 TX.
I know Fleck has emphasized a "6-hour radius" for recruiting. 80% of our 2015 recruits come from Michigan. I know CMU usually has a clause where the coach gets more money for signing kids from Michigan. ADs want local kids I guess.
Said clause has been a source of criticism and it is now gone w the new coach's contract. It was only $5k for having >60% of players from MI.
Miami gets a late, late LOI signed from S Kendrell McFadden out of Hollywood, FL. He's ranked 211 overall in the ESPN 300 and was a West Virginia commit until January. Offers from Alabama, Auburn, FSU, Notre Dame, OSU, and Wisconsin, just to name a few.
http://247sports.com/Player/Kendrell-McFadden-23198
Love and Honor, I would not have started a new thread about McFadden had I read your post first. Sorry.
Welp, turns out Toledo's best recruit from the 2015 class has never been part of the team and didn't even enroll at the University. He's listed at #14 in your rankings. This happens to every single MAC team, a big time recruit that never pans out. I wonder how far we would drop in the rankings now.
(08-05-2015 06:46 PM)inductchuck16 Wrote: [ -> ]Welp, turns out Toledo's best recruit from the 2015 class has never been part of the team and didn't even enroll at the University. He's listed at #14 in your rankings. This happens to every single MAC team, a big time recruit that never pans out. I wonder how far we would drop in the rankings now.
For whatever reason a lot of NIU's 3-star recruits don't seem to pan out either. Most of our stars have been 2-star guys it seems.