by Jim Clifton
Here's something that many Americans -- including some of the smartest and most educated among us -- don't know: The official unemployment rate, as reported by the U.S. Department of Labor, is extremely misleading.
Right now, we're hearing much celebrating from the media, the White House and Wall Street about how unemployment is "down" to 5.6%. The cheerleading for this number is deafening. The media loves a comeback story, the White House wants to score political points and Wall Street would like you to stay in the market.
None of them will tell you this: If you, a family member or anyone is unemployed and has subsequently given up on finding a job -- if you are so hopelessly out of work that you've stopped looking over the past four weeks -- the Department of Labor doesn't count you as unemployed. That's right. While you are as unemployed as one can possibly be, and tragically may never find work again, you are not counted in the figure we see relentlessly in the news -- currently 5.6%. Right now, as many as 30 million Americans are either out of work or severely underemployed. Trust me, the vast majority of them aren't throwing parties to toast "falling" unemployment.
There's another reason why the official rate is misleading. Say you're an out-of-work engineer or healthcare worker or construction worker or retail manager: If you perform a minimum of one hour of work in a week and are paid at least $20 -- maybe someone pays you to mow their lawn -- you're not officially counted as unemployed in the much-reported 5.6%. Few Americans know this.
http://www.gallup.com/opinion/chairman/1...yment.aspx
They have cooked the numbers on unemployment for years. The numbers are a big lie.
(02-03-2015 01:11 PM)EagleRockCafe Wrote: [ -> ]They have cooked the numbers on unemployment for years. The numbers are a big lie.
And they always have been. Everyone knows that they are just estimates.
Well, everyone except maybe you two.
(02-03-2015 01:11 PM)EagleRockCafe Wrote: [ -> ]They have cooked the numbers on unemployment for years. The numbers are a big lie.
Wrong and wrong.
The numbers are the numbers. The BLS has a methodology they use. It's not cooked or untruthful and they tell you as much as plain as day.
Quote:Because unemployment insurance records relate only to people who have applied for such benefits, and since it is impractical to count every unemployed person each month, the government conducts a monthly survey called the Current Population Survey (CPS) to measure the extent of unemployment in the country. The CPS has been conducted in the United States every month since 1940, when it began as a Work Projects Administration program. In 1942, the U.S. Census Bureau took over responsibility for the CPS. The survey has been expanded and modified several times since then. In 1994, for instance, the CPS underwent a major redesign in order to computerize the interview process as well as to obtain more comprehensive and relevant information.
There are about 60,000 eligible households in the sample for this survey. This translates into approximately 110,000 individuals each month, a large sample compared to public opinion surveys, which usually cover fewer than 2,000 people. The CPS sample is selected so as to be representative of the entire population of the United States. In order to select the sample, all of the counties and independent cities in the country first are grouped into approximately 2,000 geographic areas (sampling units). The Census Bureau then designs and selects a sample of about 800 of these geographic areas to represent each state and the District of Columbia. The sample is a state-based design and reflects urban and rural areas, different types of industrial and farming areas, and the major geographic divisions of each state.
Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey
The BLS also reports other figures on a monthly basis
here.
Bottom line, you can't survey every American every month so you apply a reasonable methodology to arrive at the rate...the same way they've been doing it for decades.
(02-03-2015 05:38 PM)Redwingtom Wrote: [ -> ] (02-03-2015 01:11 PM)EagleRockCafe Wrote: [ -> ]They have cooked the numbers on unemployment for years. The numbers are a big lie.
Wrong and wrong.
The numbers are the numbers. The BLS has a methodology they use. It's not cooked or untruthful and they tell you as much as plain as day.
Quote:Because unemployment insurance records relate only to people who have applied for such benefits, and since it is impractical to count every unemployed person each month, the government conducts a monthly survey called the Current Population Survey (CPS) to measure the extent of unemployment in the country. The CPS has been conducted in the United States every month since 1940, when it began as a Work Projects Administration program. In 1942, the U.S. Census Bureau took over responsibility for the CPS. The survey has been expanded and modified several times since then. In 1994, for instance, the CPS underwent a major redesign in order to computerize the interview process as well as to obtain more comprehensive and relevant information.
There are about 60,000 eligible households in the sample for this survey. This translates into approximately 110,000 individuals each month, a large sample compared to public opinion surveys, which usually cover fewer than 2,000 people. The CPS sample is selected so as to be representative of the entire population of the United States. In order to select the sample, all of the counties and independent cities in the country first are grouped into approximately 2,000 geographic areas (sampling units). The Census Bureau then designs and selects a sample of about 800 of these geographic areas to represent each state and the District of Columbia. The sample is a state-based design and reflects urban and rural areas, different types of industrial and farming areas, and the major geographic divisions of each state.
Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey
The BLS also reports other figures on a monthly basis here.
Bottom line, you can't survey every American every month so you apply a reasonable methodology to arrive at the rate...the same way they've been doing it for decades.
Don't upset them with facts. Lmfao
(02-03-2015 05:38 PM)Redwingtom Wrote: [ -> ] (02-03-2015 01:11 PM)EagleRockCafe Wrote: [ -> ]They have cooked the numbers on unemployment for years. The numbers are a big lie.
Wrong and wrong.
The numbers are the numbers. The BLS has a methodology they use. It's not cooked or untruthful and they tell you as much as plain as day.
Quote:Because unemployment insurance records relate only to people who have applied for such benefits, and since it is impractical to count every unemployed person each month, the government conducts a monthly survey called the Current Population Survey (CPS) to measure the extent of unemployment in the country. The CPS has been conducted in the United States every month since 1940, when it began as a Work Projects Administration program. In 1942, the U.S. Census Bureau took over responsibility for the CPS. The survey has been expanded and modified several times since then. In 1994, for instance, the CPS underwent a major redesign in order to computerize the interview process as well as to obtain more comprehensive and relevant information.
There are about 60,000 eligible households in the sample for this survey. This translates into approximately 110,000 individuals each month, a large sample compared to public opinion surveys, which usually cover fewer than 2,000 people. The CPS sample is selected so as to be representative of the entire population of the United States. In order to select the sample, all of the counties and independent cities in the country first are grouped into approximately 2,000 geographic areas (sampling units). The Census Bureau then designs and selects a sample of about 800 of these geographic areas to represent each state and the District of Columbia. The sample is a state-based design and reflects urban and rural areas, different types of industrial and farming areas, and the major geographic divisions of each state.
Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey
The BLS also reports other figures on a monthly basis here.
Bottom line, you can't survey every American every month so you apply a reasonable methodology to arrive at the rate...the same way they've been doing it for decades.
As usual, wrong again. I ain' gonna go look it up as I've got a sock drawer to organize, but go look at the methodology that's used now as opposed to just a few years ago.
The lie of the "4 week" rule and working one hour a week, qualifies as "working" during that period is a new creation designed to spin the really ugly news as something else. I think it used to be 4 MONTHS or something along those lines, then they would drop you as no longer actively looking, i.e no longer unemployed, but just not interested.
Now? You go out for a sandwich or maybe some re-training for a few weeks and *poof*! You're no longer unemployed, you simply don't exist. They've changed the formula to fudge the numbers, we have MORE people as a % of the workforce sitting on the sidelines than at any time in 40 years or so.
Spin that.
1 hour a week is "employed". LMFAO. Only in loopy-liberal land.
(02-03-2015 08:14 PM)JMUDunk Wrote: [ -> ] (02-03-2015 05:38 PM)Redwingtom Wrote: [ -> ] (02-03-2015 01:11 PM)EagleRockCafe Wrote: [ -> ]They have cooked the numbers on unemployment for years. The numbers are a big lie.
Wrong and wrong.
The numbers are the numbers. The BLS has a methodology they use. It's not cooked or untruthful and they tell you as much as plain as day.
Quote:Because unemployment insurance records relate only to people who have applied for such benefits, and since it is impractical to count every unemployed person each month, the government conducts a monthly survey called the Current Population Survey (CPS) to measure the extent of unemployment in the country. The CPS has been conducted in the United States every month since 1940, when it began as a Work Projects Administration program. In 1942, the U.S. Census Bureau took over responsibility for the CPS. The survey has been expanded and modified several times since then. In 1994, for instance, the CPS underwent a major redesign in order to computerize the interview process as well as to obtain more comprehensive and relevant information.
There are about 60,000 eligible households in the sample for this survey. This translates into approximately 110,000 individuals each month, a large sample compared to public opinion surveys, which usually cover fewer than 2,000 people. The CPS sample is selected so as to be representative of the entire population of the United States. In order to select the sample, all of the counties and independent cities in the country first are grouped into approximately 2,000 geographic areas (sampling units). The Census Bureau then designs and selects a sample of about 800 of these geographic areas to represent each state and the District of Columbia. The sample is a state-based design and reflects urban and rural areas, different types of industrial and farming areas, and the major geographic divisions of each state.
Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey
The BLS also reports other figures on a monthly basis here.
Bottom line, you can't survey every American every month so you apply a reasonable methodology to arrive at the rate...the same way they've been doing it for decades.
As usual, wrong again. I ain' [sic] gonna go look it up as I've got a sock drawer to organize, but go look at the methodology that's used now as opposed to just a few years ago.
The lie of the "4 week" rule and working one hour a week, qualifies as "working" during that period is a new creation designed to spin the really ugly news as something else. I think it used to be 4 MONTHS or something along those lines, then they would drop you as no longer actively looking, i.e no longer unemployed, but just not interested.
Now? You go out for a sandwich or maybe some re-training for a few weeks and *poof*! You're no longer unemployed, you simply don't exist. They've changed the formula to fudge the numbers, we have MORE people as a % of the workforce sitting on the sidelines than at any time in 40 years or so.
Spin that.
1 hour a week is "employed". LMFAO. Only in loopy-liberal land.
You're right...it was changed...my bad.
20 YEARS AGO!
http://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/1995/10/art3full.pdf
Everyone knows by now that the figure isn't accurate.
(02-04-2015 10:47 AM)VA49er Wrote: [ -> ]Everyone knows by now that the figure isn't accurate.
Exactly...but they also know it's always been nothing more than an estimate. But it's been a fairly consistent calculation for decades so it's still a useful tool to measure against history with.
(02-04-2015 12:47 PM)Redwingtom Wrote: [ -> ] (02-04-2015 10:47 AM)VA49er Wrote: [ -> ]Everyone knows by now that the figure isn't accurate.
Exactly...but they also know it's always been nothing more than an estimate. But it's been a fairly consistent calculation for decades so it's still a useful tool to measure against history with.
Unless the POTUS is black.
I think unemployment is much lower.
This is one of those things that ought to be addressed. 5.6% is something that Pravda would publish. We have become the Soviet Union when it comes to what our government tells us.
(02-05-2015 12:34 PM)HeartOfDixie Wrote: [ -> ]This is one of those things that ought to be addressed. 5.6% is something that Pravda would publish. We have become the Soviet Union when it comes to what our government tells us.
What would you prefer happen? That we don't publish employment estimates at all?
(02-03-2015 07:44 PM)Fitbud Wrote: [ -> ] (02-03-2015 05:38 PM)Redwingtom Wrote: [ -> ] (02-03-2015 01:11 PM)EagleRockCafe Wrote: [ -> ]They have cooked the numbers on unemployment for years. The numbers are a big lie.
Wrong and wrong.
The numbers are the numbers. The BLS has a methodology they use. It's not cooked or untruthful and they tell you as much as plain as day.
Quote:Because unemployment insurance records relate only to people who have applied for such benefits, and since it is impractical to count every unemployed person each month, the government conducts a monthly survey called the Current Population Survey (CPS) to measure the extent of unemployment in the country. The CPS has been conducted in the United States every month since 1940, when it began as a Work Projects Administration program. In 1942, the U.S. Census Bureau took over responsibility for the CPS. The survey has been expanded and modified several times since then. In 1994, for instance, the CPS underwent a major redesign in order to computerize the interview process as well as to obtain more comprehensive and relevant information.
There are about 60,000 eligible households in the sample for this survey. This translates into approximately 110,000 individuals each month, a large sample compared to public opinion surveys, which usually cover fewer than 2,000 people. The CPS sample is selected so as to be representative of the entire population of the United States. In order to select the sample, all of the counties and independent cities in the country first are grouped into approximately 2,000 geographic areas (sampling units). The Census Bureau then designs and selects a sample of about 800 of these geographic areas to represent each state and the District of Columbia. The sample is a state-based design and reflects urban and rural areas, different types of industrial and farming areas, and the major geographic divisions of each state.
Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey
The BLS also reports other figures on a monthly basis here.
Bottom line, you can't survey every American every month so you apply a reasonable methodology to arrive at the rate...the same way they've been doing it for decades.
Don't upset them with facts. Lmfao
You wouldn't know what facts are if it walked up and shook your hand.
The facts are that unemployment is down. Sorry if that bothers you.
(02-05-2015 07:33 PM)Fitbud Wrote: [ -> ]The facts are that unemployment is down. Sorry if that bothers you.
As defined by the the agency, not as defined by the common American
Inaccurate snapshots don't help anybody.
There are better measures the government could use. The problem is nobody in government wants to be honest about anything.
(02-05-2015 07:33 PM)Fitbud Wrote: [ -> ]The facts are that unemployment is down. Sorry if that bothers you.
YOUR "facts" say unemployment is down, yet the real unemployment numbers are still in the double digits. Sorry if that bothers you.
(02-05-2015 07:44 PM)DefCONNOne Wrote: [ -> ] (02-05-2015 07:33 PM)Fitbud Wrote: [ -> ]The facts are that unemployment is down. Sorry if that bothers you.
YOUR "facts" say unemployment is down, yet the real unemployment numbers are still in the double digits. Sorry if that bothers you.
You need to back that up.
You claim the unemployment number is legit, so perhaps you need to back that up before I do.