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PETER ST. ONGE
pstonge@charlotteobserver.com

DAVID T. FOSTER III - dtfoster@charlotteobserver.com
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On the south wall of Philip Dubois' office, a framed map offers an aerial view of UNC Charlotte. The map is less than a year old -- recent enough to show the bloom of new construction on the chancellor's campus. Dubois points to an undeveloped spot, on the frame's northeast corner.

This is where a UNCC football stadium might go.

Dubois is reluctant to talk about the spot -- or any other potential site -- because he doesn't want the UNCC community to think he is in favor of football. He also doesn't want anyone to think he is against it.

This, he will say: At the next UNCC board of trustees meeting, scheduled for Thursday, he will recommend that a citizen committee study the feasibility of football. "I'm optimistic they'll agree," he says.

The "F" Question, as Dubois calls it, has been an on-and-off topic at the school for decades -- though never more than in the past five years, as UNCC has grown and tried to shed its commuter campus image. Last year, alumni started a Web site that takes nonbinding pledges for football. Students are rallying, wearing football T-shirts at basketball games.

Big-time football, Dubois knows, is tempting. He is a former University of Wyoming president; he understands how the sport can enhance the student and alumni experience, how it connects a college to its community. Since 1990, at least 40 schools have started football programs or moved into Division I-A, the NCAA's top level.

"It's a transformational decision," he says.

UNCC, however, faces the same obstacles it always has -- football done right costs money, and the school has a limited budget and little legislative financial support. A 2004 internal athletic department study estimated the yearly bill for football and related costs at $7.1 million to $8.1 million, not including tens of millions for an on-campus stadium and facilities. Those costs, which a new study would update, have almost certainly gone up.

Dubois also has a good idea what any football research will say. The results, he says, will likely surprise students and alumni -- and perhaps anyone who believes in the power of a football Saturday.

Unless you are a top team in a major conference, football is not a moneymaker for NCAA schools. It doesn't usually result in rising alumni donations -- or bring significantly better students to your school.

"People think, `We're going to go with football and get all these benefits,' " says Cornell University economics professor Robert Frank, who has studied the issue for the Knight Commission on Intercollegiate Athletics. "Well, the expenses you'll face are very certain. The benefits you'll incur are very doubtful."

Haves and have-nots

When Dubois left UNCC for Wyoming in 1997, football was more a wish than a want on the Charlotte campus. UNCC had recently joined Conference USA, and fans were mostly content to enjoy the renaissance of 49ers basketball. "Football wasn't on the burner," Dubois says. "It wasn't even in the kitchen."

Meanwhile, fellow conference members Alabama-Birmingham and South Florida were starting football programs in the 1990s to compete in Division I-A. At the time, many around college athletics suspected correctly that major conferences would realign soon; schools with successful football programs would be positioned best for inclusion into the lucrative leagues.

UNCC, however, faced built-in disadvantages. The school's overall budget was less than one-fourth the size of those at UAB and USF, where money could be found to absorb football's inevitable deficits.

By the time Dubois came back to UNCC in 2005, the school had grown to more than 20,000 students, with 7,500 students living within a mile of the school. Yet an old problem persisted: The campus was dead on weekends.

An old solution came roaring back: football.

"If you want to get the students and alumni on campus, football probably works," says Dan Fulks, an NCAA consultant and accounting professor at Transylvania University. "But it's going to cost them. It's going to cost them a lot."

In Division I-AA, the place UNCC football would initially land, only 6 percent of football programs made money in 2005, Fulks says, with the remaining schools losing an average of $1.3 million.

In I-A football -- which Dubois and others agree would best protect the basketball program -- 53 percent made an average of $11 million, with the rest averaging losses of $2 million.

But, says Fulks: "If you're not in a conference that sends half its teams to a bowl game, you have no chance of making money."

The hill is steeper for new programs. Of the 64 teams playing in bowls last season, one came from a program younger than 40 years old. That was South Florida, which reaps the benefits of one of the country's most talent-rich states.

Fulks says the gap between I-A winners and losers widens each year as richer schools spend more money on facilities and coaches, while the schools Fulks labels "pretenders" spend money they don't have in an effort to keep pace.

Football, Dubois knows, is a perpetual fixer-upper. He laughs that under his leadership, Wyoming's I-A football team fell from 10-2 in 1996 to 2-10 in 2002. In response to conference competitors spending more, Dubois proposed $28 million in stadium renovations and facilities improvements in 2003. The money was raised.

Wyoming football has since gone 7-5, 4-7 and 6-6. This year, athletics director Tom Burman is asking for $800,000 more a year.

Alumni and student benefits?

Jim Duncan has already imagined UNCC's first football Saturday. It is 2011, and 20,000 fans are tailgating near the soccer and track field, which has been expanded until an on-campus football stadium is built. The opponent? "You don't want someone who'll kill you," Duncan says. He settles on Western Carolina.

Duncan is a UNCC grad, Class of '91, a Winston-Salem mortgage broker who drives 90 minutes from his office to most 49ers home basketball games. Last spring, he started a UNCC football initiative that included Charlotte49erfootball.com, a site designed to rally and demonstrate support for the sport.

Like many proponents, he believes football creates a buzz for a school -- "The tip of the marketing sword," USF officials called it -- prompting donations from alumni and affluent locals, and resulting in a larger, higher-quality student enrollment.

Such a phenomenon even has a name -- the "Flutie Effect" -- so called because of the 12 percent rise in applications at Boston College after quarterback Doug Flutie led his Eagles to an oft-replayed "Hail Mary" victory over Miami in 1984.

A 2003 NCAA-commissioned study, however, showed that even if schools get more applications after football successes, the quality of admissions, based on SAT scores, doesn't significantly improve. That report affirmed independent studies in 1993 and 1987 that showed small SAT bumps for schools with big-time athletics or top 20 football teams.

The same 2003 NCAA report showed little relationship between football spending and alumni giving, either to the sports program or to the school. Other studies showed private gifts rising after successful football seasons, but the increases were small and temporary.

So why do schools continue to aim for I-A football? Fulks says that first, it's the ego of the schools' leadership. "They want to be associated with the big schools," he says.

Also, administrators and fans tend to believe their school will succeed where others don't. At UNCC, supporters point to a Charlotte market that would be attractive to a major conference, plus a vibrant nearby business community. As alumnus Duncan says: "There's money here for football. This is Charlotte."

The money game

No big donors have come forth for UNCC football at this point, nor does Dubois expect love from the state legislature, as football startups in other states have received. One striking example: Connecticut lawmakers, in 2000, approved a $91 million, 40,000-seat UConn football stadium.

Dubois believes an on-campus stadium would be crucial for UNCC football, but he knows that even a small-but-expandable stadium is pricey. UNCC's largest-ever donation, he notes, is $10 million.

The feasibility study, which would take about a year, also would likely show a yearly shortfall in football, one that could grow as UNCC moves to Division I-A. The bulk of that cost would fall on the students, Dubois says.

On Monday, those students can vote in a student government poll on using student fees for football, but Dubois is reluctant to ask much of a population that is already among the UNC system's most dependent on financial aid.

"If you believe there's a limit to what students can pay," he says, "and you decide that football is going to take up most of that, then you're not going to be able to use that money for academic programs."

All of which adds up to a sobering football portrait, one that Dubois has already begun to sketch in binders of research on his desk. He is, he says, a sports fan. He knows the point guard on the women's basketball team. He has student-athletes over for dinner. He knows what athletics can bring to a campus.

But he also knows the difficult, corresponding question:

"How much," he says, "are you willing to lose?"
If they want to try and make it fly....good for them. I certainly can not blame them for loving college football. The problem comes in that despite their success in basketball their attendence has really dropped off since leaving C-USA. Plus they will have the same problems many other teams have in pro towns. They will always be second fiddle to the Panthers.
Charlotte would be interesting. If they made a go of it in football they bring a strong basketball program.
CatsClaw Wrote:Charlotte would be interesting. If they made a go of it in football they bring a strong basketball program.

yea, 11th in the A-10
fsquid Wrote:
CatsClaw Wrote:Charlotte would be interesting. If they made a go of it in football they bring a strong basketball program.

yea, 11th in the A-10

Funny, I seem to remember a certain Memphis team sitting at the bottom of C-USA not that long ago. Everyone agreed though you still had a strong basketball program. I guess when things are going good people for the bad.
fsquid Wrote:
CatsClaw Wrote:Charlotte would be interesting. If they made a go of it in football they bring a strong basketball program.

yea, 11th in the A-10

I'd try to get them in the conference just so I could have a shot at getting a picture of Wanny and Lutz together. The two nastiest staches in all of college sports in the same conference.
L-yes Wrote:
fsquid Wrote:
CatsClaw Wrote:Charlotte would be interesting. If they made a go of it in football they bring a strong basketball program.

yea, 11th in the A-10

I'd try to get them in the conference just so I could have a shot at getting a picture of Wanny and Lutz together. The two nastiest staches in all of college sports in the same conference.

lmfao
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