First off, I want to apologize to the EMU coaching staff on underestimating their recruiting abilities by projecting this year's team would win 10-14 division 1 games. After watching the Okoloji, Samuels, Hunter, Nazione, Price, (Bond ?) and Alvono play, this year's team is better than last year's team. I did not anticipate the Coaching Staff to lose 8 players and replace them with talented and in some cases even more talented personnel. I was wrong, and I am so happy that I was wrong!!!
After watching some of the MAC teams play this year, I believe we will definitely win 12 games in conference play, and get to the semifinals of MAC tournament. This would translate us to being a top four team in the conference and 21 D1 wins (7 + 12 conf victories + 2 tournament victories). By and large this means a very successful season, but not a MAC championship. We may surpass the 21 win total by winning an NIT game.
To be MAC champions, Coach Murphy would have to have a low post game. This is one phase he has not had in his 3 & 1/2 seasons. I truly believe that Riley or Samuels are very equipped to have an offensive post up game, but it is not part of Murphy's strategy which translates to our centers getting points only by putbacks. Therefore if our outside shots are not falling, then we don't have the drought breaker by getting an easy look down low.
Also even though we are 7-2, I noticed we do not run a structured offense. I have seen the three man weave again and too much dribbling. As talented as Talley is, he sometimes tries to do too much with excessive dribbling that takes the team out of synchronicity and he forces too many shots. I wonder what his fg% is against D1 competition. Same thing goes for Ward and Lee. So I do not place the blame on the players but the lack of offensive strategy. We should pass, set screens for shooters, and post up down low which would makes us more efficient in scoring the ball. If Ward struggles outside a bit, we should Post him up to get him a few easy looks to get him going. When we play top 60 Div 1 programs, they only have to guard our perimeter since we have no low post game. We need to fix the offense with low post scoring and off the ball screens. If we do this, then possibly we would win the MAC this year. I truly believe that this years team has more talent than the rest of the MAC, but the system needs tweaked. Murphy can do it!!!
Well, I was off work today......
Luckeyone: Good read. There was quite a bit of pessimism in the offseason from many people. And understandable considering there were only 4 returning players. Yes, I agree the recruiting was as good as you can ask with just about every newcomer panning out to some degree.
But I feel you are still ignoring the fact that EMU returned their 3 best players from last year's team. So in some ways, all that was needed was replacing back-ups. ie, Alvano can easily fill the minutes Combs provided, but EMU would be in bad shape if they expected him to take on Talley's role.
It was an unusual situation since teams normally lose starters and are left wondering if the backups can assume the starter roles. So it was confusing, but there never should have been any worry over the 1,2, and 3 positions- which was the main reason last years team was good.
However, Power Forward was the concern for me as EMU lost both starter and back-up in Bryant and Harrison. And I think Bryant was highly underrated and might have been the bigger loss than Riley. In this, Murphy did a great job bringing in Okoloji and Nazionne (maybe lucky, especially with regard to Okoloji). They have different strengths and weaknesses than Bryant/Harrison and it may be debatable if they are as good of a duo. But minimum, they prevented a significant drop-off at the position.
In the end, I am agreeing that the recruiting prevented a drop-off. BUT, the three best players on this years team are the same as the three best players on last years team. And the latter has more to do with why they are still a good team.
As far as being able to develop a low post game, EMU has not yet had a offensively capable center under Murphy. Riley last year and Samuels and Ajavi have a hard time catching balls (which throws off their offensive game and rebounding). They can't quick strike because they require too much time to focus on catching the ball. And they can't work out post moves because they are strip prone. Hunter might have the best hands, but a little undersized.
I am not complaining about these guys. They are really strong and play great defensive. But developing a post-game with them is not likely.
Murphy's offensive strategy/coaching definitely needs improvement still. But I don't think you are being realistic on how to improve it.
(12-29-2014 10:24 PM)rayEMU Wrote: [ -> ]Luckeyone: Good read. There was quite a bit of pessimism in the offseason from many people. And understandable considering there were only 4 returning players. Yes, I agree the recruiting was as good as you can ask with just about every newcomer panning out to some degree.
But I feel you are still ignoring the fact that EMU returned their 3 best players from last year's team. So in some ways, all that was needed was replacing back-ups. ie, Alvano can easily fill the minutes Combs provided, but EMU would be in bad shape if they expected him to take on Talley's role.
It was an unusual situation since teams normally lose starters and are left wondering if the backups can assume the starter roles. So it was confusing, but there never should have been any worry over the 1,2, and 3 positions- which was the main reason last years team was good.
However, Power Forward was the concern for me as EMU lost both starter and back-up in Bryant and Harrison. And I think Bryant was highly underrated and might have been the bigger loss than Riley. In this, Murphy did a great job bringing in Okoloji and Nazionne (maybe lucky, especially with regard to Okoloji). They have different strengths and weaknesses than Bryant/Harrison and it may be debatable if they are as good of a duo. But minimum, they prevented a significant drop-off at the position.
In the end, I am agreeing that the recruiting prevented a drop-off. BUT, the three best players on this years team are the same as the three best players on last years team. And the latter has more to do with why they are still a good team.
Actually I think all three have improved their game over last year especially Lee. If Lee can remain focused he may see his first NCAA game.
Yeah I'm not buying that we need our centers to become dangerous scoring threats in order to win the MAC. Okoloji has a decent low post game and can get to the basket, which is something the original post didn't take into account. While Samuels has shown flashes of a decent hook and getting fouled, I still think he's the 5th option on the floor. He and Ajayi are both pretty good at on-ball defense and on the glass, especially on offense, and that's all I'm expecting from them. Scoring is a bonus.
Save for two games (which happened to be Michigan and Michigan State), this team has found ways to score a decent amount of points, which hasn't exactly been the case in the past. When we are able to create turnovers and get on the run, this team is incredibly dangerous. Even more so when Ward and Lee are hitting shots from the outside. But our calling card is still our defense. We had our issues through the first four or five games, but since the Michigan game we've been fantastic. Still only two teams have shot over 40% against us (Dayton and Oakland)...that's pretty remarkable. Keep playing fantastic defense, and more wins will follow.
Didn't think it was worth starting it's own thread, but Michigan just got a nice win over RPI #45 Illinois. They're still too 3-point reliant, but this a nice win to help salvage their season...and make our win over them look better :)
That is good news. Michigan is essentially ranked as a mid-major right now. But a good showing in the Big Ten would change that. And give EMU a "quality" win for the media and selection committees to deliberate on. EMU for it's part will also need to do really well in the MAC for that topic to even come up.
I think the MAC is going to be tougher than EMU's non-conference was game to game.
For EMU to have a realistic shot at an at-large NCAA bid they would have to go about 16-2 in the MAC then make it to the MACC finals. That would give them a record of about 25-5 in D1 games. Non D1 games are only eye candy. They don't mean anything. It'll help if the teams EMU played in the non-conference have good seasons too.
Good point Wooden. I think it is safe to assume we should all be considering EMU's non-conference record as 7-2. Lets hope EMU can go 16-2 in the MAC, I'd still be happy with 15-3 or 14-4.
Truth be told, they had an excellent non-conference last year as well at 5-5 (but ridiculously tough). 10-6 is a decent MAC season, but fell a little shy of what their nonconference play would have predicted. There were a few potential wins that they squandered. Maybe the leadership and depth is better this year. Unfortunately, so is the MAC.
EMU Non-conference 2013-14
Record 5-5
Opponent / Sagarin / Result
Kentucky / 8 / L: 81-63
Duke / 13 / L: 82-59
Syracuse / 17 / L: 70-48
Umass / 49 / L: 69-57
Green Bay / 73 / W: 67-58
Purdue / 83 / L: 69-64
Cleveland St / 94 / W: 81-69
Robert Morris / 166 / W: 69-64
Oakland / 198 / W: 81-79
UT-Arlington / 215 / W: 74-69
EMU Non-conference 2014-15
Record 7-2
Opponent / Sagarin / Result
Michigan St / 22 / L: 66-46
Dayton / 56 / L: 73-64
Michigian / 129 / W: 45-42
Youngstown St / 200 / W: 71-62
Missouri St / 213 / W: 77-65
Oakland / 231 / W: 89-77
UNC Greensboro / 317 / W:70-62
Longwood / 328 / W:79-48
Coppin St / 341 / W: 87-64
Looks, on paper, like a team which should be ranked 76 - 100.