Since the AAC TV deal has a "A Group" (Cincy, UConn, Temple, Houston) and a "B Group" (all the rest), ESPN can terminate the TV deal if Cincy and one other member leave.
If Cincy goes to the ACC or Big 12 and one of Memphis, UCF or USF go to the Big 12, ESPN can save $7 to $10 million a year by bidding on a new AAC TV deal. That deal would be worth less than a CUSA or MWC TV deal, and be pegged at roughly $1,000,000 per school. The AAC is currently in its second year of a 7 year $126 million deal.The current TV deal results in an annual payout of $1.8 million per school.
ESPN can realize that savings, or shift it into its existing Big 12 or ACC contract.
Now this $7 million/yr figure isn't enough to force such a move, but it certainly makes such movement much more easy to facilitate.
Heck, Big 12 could get 30 Million for doing a CCG by adding 2 teams.
(12-08-2014 06:01 PM)BE4evah Wrote: [ -> ]Since the AAC TV deal has a "A Group" (Cincy, UConn, Temple, Houston) and a "B Group" (all the rest), ESPN can terminate the TV deal if Cincy and one other member leave.
If Cincy goes to the ACC or Big 12 and one of Memphis, UCF or USF go to the Big 12, ESPN can save $7 to $10 million a year by bidding on a new AAC TV deal. That deal would be worth less than a CUSA or MWC TV deal, and be pegged at roughly $1,000,000 per school. The AAC is currently in its second year of a 7 year $126 million deal.The current TV deal results in an annual payout of $1.8 million per school.
ESPN can realize that savings, or shift it into its existing Big 12 or ACC contract.
Now this $7 million/yr figure isn't enough to force such a move, but it certainly makes such movement much more easy to facilitate.
You may want to read this first before you start a thread about ESPN and their "Big 12" account.
Who owns the Big 12 Media rights?
ACC maybe, Big 12 not.
(12-08-2014 06:01 PM)BE4evah Wrote: [ -> ]Since the AAC TV deal has a "A Group" (Cincy, UConn, Temple, Houston) and a "B Group" (all the rest), ESPN can terminate the TV deal if Cincy and one other member leave.
If Cincy goes to the ACC or Big 12 and one of Memphis, UCF or USF go to the Big 12, ESPN can save $7 to $10 million a year by bidding on a new AAC TV deal. That deal would be worth less than a CUSA or MWC TV deal, and be pegged at roughly $1,000,000 per school. The AAC is currently in its second year of a 7 year $126 million deal.The current TV deal results in an annual payout of $1.8 million per school.
ESPN can realize that savings, or shift it into its existing Big 12 or ACC contract.
Now this $7 million/yr figure isn't enough to force such a move, but it certainly makes such movement much more easy to facilitate.
The AAC immediately dies in such a scenario. SMU/UH/Tulsa will go west the moment you reduce the TV deal.
(12-08-2014 06:21 PM)oliveandblue Wrote: [ -> ] (12-08-2014 06:01 PM)BE4evah Wrote: [ -> ]Since the AAC TV deal has a "A Group" (Cincy, UConn, Temple, Houston) and a "B Group" (all the rest), ESPN can terminate the TV deal if Cincy and one other member leave.
If Cincy goes to the ACC or Big 12 and one of Memphis, UCF or USF go to the Big 12, ESPN can save $7 to $10 million a year by bidding on a new AAC TV deal. That deal would be worth less than a CUSA or MWC TV deal, and be pegged at roughly $1,000,000 per school. The AAC is currently in its second year of a 7 year $126 million deal.The current TV deal results in an annual payout of $1.8 million per school.
ESPN can realize that savings, or shift it into its existing Big 12 or ACC contract.
Now this $7 million/yr figure isn't enough to force such a move, but it certainly makes such movement much more easy to facilitate.
The AAC immediately dies in such a scenario. SMU/UH/Tulsa will go west the moment you reduce the TV deal.
This. UCONN goes Independent at that point.
To play who? UConn football would be only a step above UMass football short of a B1G or ACC invite. And they deserve better considering they're a somewhat large state's flagship with an excellent basketball tradition in the last 25 years.
at that point UCONN needs to put all sports in the Big East and football in either the MAC or independent until they can figure something else out...imo
This potential revenue, plus the increased chance of the Big 12 earning $14 million to $36 million dollars per CFP appearance per Forbes, means that the Big 12, if it doesn't expand, exists only to serve Texas and Oklahoma. Many already believe that.
Wow, alot of bad info all in one thread. Where to start.
1. The Big 12 will not get $30 million for a CCG. The Big 10 is considered to be the most valuable conference and they only get $24 million. I would estimate, based on Pac 12 and ACC monies that the b12 gets about $20 million.
2. The AAC contract was not written by ESPN. It was written by Comcast and then it was matched by ESPN. The whole Tier A and Tier B schools thing was a Comcast requirement based off their regional networks and really has no influence on ESPNs decisions. ESPN payed roughly the same for the MWC as they did for the AAC. Replacing one of our members and keeping hte contract about the same isnt going to be all that tough.
3. If ESPN does indeed decide to do as the OP states (they wont) then the contract is null and void and open to bidding. Since Comcast and Fox are hurting for content, I dont see the competitive bidding dropping down significantly.
4. Dont assume a program like Uconn doesnt have options. The Big East would take them in a heart beat and they would earn more money then before. They could join up with Umass and apply to the sunbelt... and pull a Marshall and win the conference each year earning a bid.
5. Other teams in the conference wold have options too. I wouldnt doubt the MWC would love to add Houston and SMU to go to 14... and Memphis would be another easy add. Hell, I can see them going to 18 teams and add in USF, UCF and ECU. Now they would have the overwhelming 6th best conference and could negotiate a slightly better TV deal.
(12-09-2014 11:59 AM)mtmedlin Wrote: [ -> ]Wow, alot of bad info all in one thread. Where to start.
1. The Big 12 will not get $30 million for a CCG. The Big 10 is considered to be the most valuable conference and they only get $24 million. I would estimate, based on Pac 12 and ACC monies that the b12 gets about $20 million.
2. The AAC contract was not written by ESPN. It was written by Comcast and then it was matched by ESPN. The whole Tier A and Tier B schools thing was a Comcast requirement based off their regional networks and really has no influence on ESPNs decisions. ESPN payed roughly the same for the MWC as they did for the AAC. Replacing one of our members and keeping hte contract about the same isnt going to be all that tough.
3. If ESPN does indeed decide to do as the OP states (they wont) then the contract is null and void and open to bidding. Since Comcast and Fox are hurting for content, I dont see the competitive bidding dropping down significantly.
4. Dont assume a program like Uconn doesnt have options. The Big East would take them in a heart beat and they would earn more money then before. They could join up with Umass and apply to the sunbelt... and pull a Marshall and win the conference each year earning a bid.
5. Other teams in the conference wold have options too. I wouldnt doubt the MWC would love to add Houston and SMU to go to 14... and Memphis would be another easy add. Hell, I can see them going to 18 teams and add in USF, UCF and ECU. Now they would have the overwhelming 6th best conference and could negotiate a slightly better TV deal.
Your #4 point is something that I didn't think about. Very interesting concept.
(12-08-2014 07:24 PM)Bearcats#1 Wrote: [ -> ]at that point UCONN needs to put all sports in the Big East and football in either the MAC or independent until they can figure something else out...imo
MAC won't take them as football only, it's the same reason why they kicked out UMass.
Important note about independence: It is a lot easier to do if you know about 8-10 schools that could be joining you. For instance, UConn could just call up Tulane and agree to play home-and-home during the middle part of the season when neither school can find a "peer" opponent.
One school going Indy is a joke... ...eight teams going Indy is a possible business plan (and a good one if you consider that you're making peanuts anyway on your TV deal).
(12-09-2014 11:59 AM)mtmedlin Wrote: [ -> ]Wow, alot of bad info all in one thread. Where to start.
1. The Big 12 will not get $30 million for a CCG. The Big 10 is considered to be the most valuable conference and they only get $24 million. I would estimate, based on Pac 12 and ACC monies that the b12 gets about $20 million.
2. The AAC contract was not written by ESPN. It was written by Comcast and then it was matched by ESPN. The whole Tier A and Tier B schools thing was a Comcast requirement based off their regional networks and really has no influence on ESPNs decisions. ESPN payed roughly the same for the MWC as they did for the AAC. Replacing one of our members and keeping hte contract about the same isnt going to be all that tough.
3. If ESPN does indeed decide to do as the OP states (they wont) then the contract is null and void and open to bidding. Since Comcast and Fox are hurting for content, I dont see the competitive bidding dropping down significantly.
4. Dont assume a program like Uconn doesnt have options. The Big East would take them in a heart beat and they would earn more money then before. They could join up with Umass and apply to the sunbelt... and pull a Marshall and win the conference each year earning a bid.
5. Other teams in the conference wold have options too. I wouldnt doubt the MWC would love to add Houston and SMU to go to 14... and Memphis would be another easy add. Hell, I can see them going to 18 teams and add in USF, UCF and ECU. Now they would have the overwhelming 6th best conference and could negotiate a slightly better TV deal.
It doesn't matter which party wrote the original contract All that matters is that it does. ESPN has a riight to terminate it if conditions subsequent occur. There is nono question that ESPN will bid less less for an AAC without Cincy (and eg Memphis or UCF/USF). Looking at the current landscape, the reconfigured AAC might be lucky to get $1 million a year. Fox has the hindsight of the Big East's ratings to help guide it, as well as the AAC's FB ratings.
According to Forbes, the Big 12 gave up at least $14 million for not making the semifinals. It also reported that the Big 10 will earn up to $22 million for just the championship gamegame if Ohio State makes it.I assumed that the Big 12 if one of its schools played in the final, would earn at least $20 million.
As for options for UConn, the sentiment that appears to be gaining traction is some kind of independence for its football and putting its basketball teams in some other conference. Whether that is viable, I don't know. More than a few UConn insiders think that that is the route UConn should be taking.
I wonder if no conference will want UConn that it couldn't form a northeast conference of Uconn, UMass, Buffalo, Albany, New Hampshire (solid FCS program), Delaware, and something like ODU/Marshall. In order for this tom occur there would have to be the recognition that the G5/P5 divide is for all practical purposes the same as a P5/FCS divide.
Quote:I wonder if no conference will want UConn that it couldn't form a northeast conference of Uconn, UMass, Buffalo, Albany, New Hampshire (solid FCS program), Delaware, and something like ODU/Marshall. In order for this tom occur there would have to be the recognition that the G5/P5 divide is for all practical purposes the same as a P5/FCS divide.
I was just thinking the exact same thing before. The issue for this would be that the football would probably be pretty pathetic in terms of FBS level and that the teams mentioned haven't made the jump probably due to budget constraint. Also Stony Brook is a FCS program as well along the SUNY group.
However if you got army, navy and temple involved maybe you would have something going there, you'd basically have a northern conference USA or Sun belt level of football.
UConn
UMass
Buffalo
Temple
Army
Navy
ODU
New Hampshire
Delaware
Marshall
Fordham
Albany
Stony Brook
Villanova (football only)
(12-09-2014 01:02 PM)AntiG Wrote: [ -> ] (12-08-2014 07:24 PM)Bearcats#1 Wrote: [ -> ]at that point UCONN needs to put all sports in the Big East and football in either the MAC or independent until they can figure something else out...imo
MAC won't take them as football only, it's the same reason why they kicked out UMass.
And why go there? You're conceding you're not a big time program by doing so. It'd be better to go independent, drop football or go back FCS (other than the money loss).
(12-09-2014 01:06 PM)oliveandblue Wrote: [ -> ]Important note about independence: It is a lot easier to do if you know about 8-10 schools that could be joining you. For instance, UConn could just call up Tulane and agree to play home-and-home during the middle part of the season when neither school can find a "peer" opponent.
One school going Indy is a joke... ...eight teams going Indy is a possible business plan (and a good one if you consider that you're making peanuts anyway on your TV deal).
It's called a conference, which is how many of them formed (C-USA/Liberty Bowl Alliance, Sun Belt/Big West remnants, etc...).
(12-09-2014 01:34 PM)AntiG Wrote: [ -> ]Quote:I wonder if no conference will want UConn that it couldn't form a northeast conference of Uconn, UMass, Buffalo, Albany, New Hampshire (solid FCS program), Delaware, and something like ODU/Marshall. In order for this tom occur there would have to be the recognition that the G5/P5 divide is for all practical purposes the same as a P5/FCS divide.
I was just thinking the exact same thing before. The issue for this would be that the football would probably be pretty pathetic in terms of FBS level and that the teams mentioned haven't made the jump probably due to budget constraint. Also Stony Brook is a FCS program as well along the SUNY group.
However if you got army, navy and temple involved maybe you would have something going there, you'd basically have a northern conference USA or Sun belt level of football.
UConn
UMass
Buffalo
Temple
Army
Navy
ODU
New Hampshire
Delaware
Marshall
Fordham
Albany
Stony Brook
Villanova (football only)
Why would Marshall leave a southern based conference that gives us a guaranteed game in Florida every season for that? Same with ODU. Army and Navy would probably be all in though.
MU and ODU are southern football schools.
(12-09-2014 01:34 PM)AntiG Wrote: [ -> ]However if you got army, navy and temple involved maybe you would have something going there, you'd basically have a northern conference USA or Sun belt level of football.
Big Northeast Conference
UConn
UMass
Buffalo
Temple
Army
Navy
ODU
Villanova
Ohio
Miami OH
Georgetown (oly sports)
Seton Hall (oly sports)
St. John's (oly sports)
Providence (oly sports)
I like the idea too, maybe not as many teams and try to lure away existing FBS programs from the MAC that fit the academic and athletic criteria as well as a few of the old guard Big East bball and olympic sports programs.
Football wise it would be able to compete with the remaining MAC programs and the AAC/CUSA combo (after programs leave for the Big XII and MWC).
In regards to bball, that northeast-centric conference would blow the doors off the MAC, AAC/CUSA and even the MWC.
That could also make a heck of a hockey conference.