10-24-2014, 03:15 PM
First let me say that I consider the sources and have profound doubts. But, could there be any logic behind the rumors? Well, that is an another matter entirely as given where things stand right now, it is certainly possible.
The present climate:
1. The Big 10 is less than 2 years away from negotiating a new T1 deal. Should they expand again their prime targets are the markets of the East coast. ESPN owns the rights to those prospects.
2. The SECN is proving to be a lucrative entity whose opening broke all expectations. Should the SEC expand again they prefer the markets of the East coast. ESPN owns the rights to those prospects.
3. The ACC doesn't have a network and is probably not close to obtaining one.
4. If ESPN wants to hold onto Texas, gain more access to Oklahoma, and if the marketplace is truly more on board with college football rather than college basketball what would you want, a conference centered around a basketball leadership, or a conference centered around football leadership? ESPN could build a second football conference as valuable as the SEC by building it around Texas and Oklahoma rather than by placing the Longhorns in a conference run by basketball schools.
5. GOR's? If ESPN owns 100% of the ACC's rights this really isn't an issue if it is a move that ESPN wants to see happen and if ESPN intends to have a much higher percentage of the conference they might move into, or if they can make a lot more with those schools if they are placed in another ESPN friendly conference.
6. Texas wants to keep the Big 12 together so they can remain the kingpin in their own creation.
7. Even with a slowly developing Big12N the earning potential there will be far greater than in the ACC. Add to that the fact that the Big 10 and SEC will be earning far more as well and the climate for a change is ripe.
8. Given the right deal Notre Dame might likely make the jump as well. With Notre Dame and B.Y.U. as partials a B12N might work just fine.
So if this kind of rumor did develop legs what might arise?
Georgia Tech, Virginia, North Carolina, and Duke to the Big 10.
Big 10 East:
Duke, Georgia Tech, Maryland, North Carolina, Rutgers, Virginia
Big 10 Central:
Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue
Big 10 West:
Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Wisconsin
The SEC would be in position to pick up Virginia Tech, N.C. State, Clemson, and Florida State. Why Clemson and Florida State? Their average attendance, travel base, profitability, and demographics best match the SEC. So unless we pick up Oklahoma and another Texas school (doubtful in this scenario) I think we consolidate for brand purposes.
SEC East:
Auburn, Clemson, Florida, Georgia, N.C. State, Virginia Tech
SEC Central:
Alabama, Florida State, Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
SEC West:
Arkansas, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Missouri, Texas A&M
Now for the Big prize for ESPN, a new conference in the Big 12 shell with eventually all T3 under ESPN in an transformed LHN.
Big 12 East:
Boston College, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Wake Forest, West Virginia
* Notre Dame as an independent
Big 12 North:
Cincinnati, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State
Big 12 South:
Baylor, Colorado State, Miami, Texas, T.C.U., Texas Tech
*B.Y.U. as an independent
However what I would prefer to see happen would be this:
East:
Boston College, Louisville, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia
North:
Cincinnati, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State
South:
Baylor, Brigham Young, Miami, Texas, T.C.U., Texas Tech
Now why would any of this take place?
Georgia Tech, Duke, North Carolina, and Virginia give the Big 10 the Northeast and the Beltway, and some Southern exposure. It fulfills Delany's mission, and ESPN gets a new T1 Big 10 deal out of it.
The SEC gains 19 million new viewers and more money for the SECN without diluting their brand and by defensively keeping the Big 12 essentially out of the Southeast's best recruiting grounds. ESPN profits by including N.C. State and Virignia Tech's markets in the SECN and they get huge content boosts with Clemson and F.S.U.
ESPN builds a very profitable 2nd strong football conference to set up as a rival with the SEC, and gets border rivalries between the Big 10 and SEC two brands that fans love to watch go to war.
ESPN makes more money off of every ACC property than they would have otherwise and the new P4 doesn't have the problem of having 1 of the 4 as a glorified basketball conference dabbling in football.
Duke, North Carolina, Virginia and Georgia Tech all make much more money. So do F.S.U., Clemson, N.C. State and Virginia Tech.
The Big12N gets huge markets for Texas and Oklahoma to exploit and for ESPN to finally find an effective way to monetize Texas in the kinds of markets they had hoped to obtain by considering a Texas to the ACC move, but only without having to leave the ACC in the hands of basketball first schools.
Now am I predicting this to happen? No. But I can see both the business motivation and the logic behind the rumors which is more than I can say for most of the rumors.
The present climate:
1. The Big 10 is less than 2 years away from negotiating a new T1 deal. Should they expand again their prime targets are the markets of the East coast. ESPN owns the rights to those prospects.
2. The SECN is proving to be a lucrative entity whose opening broke all expectations. Should the SEC expand again they prefer the markets of the East coast. ESPN owns the rights to those prospects.
3. The ACC doesn't have a network and is probably not close to obtaining one.
4. If ESPN wants to hold onto Texas, gain more access to Oklahoma, and if the marketplace is truly more on board with college football rather than college basketball what would you want, a conference centered around a basketball leadership, or a conference centered around football leadership? ESPN could build a second football conference as valuable as the SEC by building it around Texas and Oklahoma rather than by placing the Longhorns in a conference run by basketball schools.
5. GOR's? If ESPN owns 100% of the ACC's rights this really isn't an issue if it is a move that ESPN wants to see happen and if ESPN intends to have a much higher percentage of the conference they might move into, or if they can make a lot more with those schools if they are placed in another ESPN friendly conference.
6. Texas wants to keep the Big 12 together so they can remain the kingpin in their own creation.
7. Even with a slowly developing Big12N the earning potential there will be far greater than in the ACC. Add to that the fact that the Big 10 and SEC will be earning far more as well and the climate for a change is ripe.
8. Given the right deal Notre Dame might likely make the jump as well. With Notre Dame and B.Y.U. as partials a B12N might work just fine.
So if this kind of rumor did develop legs what might arise?
Georgia Tech, Virginia, North Carolina, and Duke to the Big 10.
Big 10 East:
Duke, Georgia Tech, Maryland, North Carolina, Rutgers, Virginia
Big 10 Central:
Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue
Big 10 West:
Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Wisconsin
The SEC would be in position to pick up Virginia Tech, N.C. State, Clemson, and Florida State. Why Clemson and Florida State? Their average attendance, travel base, profitability, and demographics best match the SEC. So unless we pick up Oklahoma and another Texas school (doubtful in this scenario) I think we consolidate for brand purposes.
SEC East:
Auburn, Clemson, Florida, Georgia, N.C. State, Virginia Tech
SEC Central:
Alabama, Florida State, Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
SEC West:
Arkansas, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Missouri, Texas A&M
Now for the Big prize for ESPN, a new conference in the Big 12 shell with eventually all T3 under ESPN in an transformed LHN.
Big 12 East:
Boston College, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Wake Forest, West Virginia
* Notre Dame as an independent
Big 12 North:
Cincinnati, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State
Big 12 South:
Baylor, Colorado State, Miami, Texas, T.C.U., Texas Tech
*B.Y.U. as an independent
However what I would prefer to see happen would be this:
East:
Boston College, Louisville, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia
North:
Cincinnati, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State
South:
Baylor, Brigham Young, Miami, Texas, T.C.U., Texas Tech
Now why would any of this take place?
Georgia Tech, Duke, North Carolina, and Virginia give the Big 10 the Northeast and the Beltway, and some Southern exposure. It fulfills Delany's mission, and ESPN gets a new T1 Big 10 deal out of it.
The SEC gains 19 million new viewers and more money for the SECN without diluting their brand and by defensively keeping the Big 12 essentially out of the Southeast's best recruiting grounds. ESPN profits by including N.C. State and Virignia Tech's markets in the SECN and they get huge content boosts with Clemson and F.S.U.
ESPN builds a very profitable 2nd strong football conference to set up as a rival with the SEC, and gets border rivalries between the Big 10 and SEC two brands that fans love to watch go to war.
ESPN makes more money off of every ACC property than they would have otherwise and the new P4 doesn't have the problem of having 1 of the 4 as a glorified basketball conference dabbling in football.
Duke, North Carolina, Virginia and Georgia Tech all make much more money. So do F.S.U., Clemson, N.C. State and Virginia Tech.
The Big12N gets huge markets for Texas and Oklahoma to exploit and for ESPN to finally find an effective way to monetize Texas in the kinds of markets they had hoped to obtain by considering a Texas to the ACC move, but only without having to leave the ACC in the hands of basketball first schools.
Now am I predicting this to happen? No. But I can see both the business motivation and the logic behind the rumors which is more than I can say for most of the rumors.