Everyone can agree that this past weekend was as much of a reality check as we have had.
My question that I posed to my friends at the game and I will pose to you is "define progress" in regards to our team. The questions was posed specifically in regards to our defense but I think the question is fair for the entire team and each individual unit.
My question as it related to defense was what does progress look like. When setting a goal, it must be SMART (Specific, Measurable, Attainable, Realistic and Trackable). I am not trying to beat a dead horse, and using evidence from the Marshall game might not be fair in the argument, but I have seen no progress from our defense (Marshall game aside).
The only barometers a defense has is stats. Points, yardage, first downs, etc. I would say we have made minimal to no progress on the defensive side of the ball. If you eliminate the SMART component and go simply with the eye ball test, I would say we have made even less progress. Our guys continually find themselves out of position which they have for years, fail to get off blocks, and can't wrap up and tackle.
So I ask you, what should we expect progress from our d or the team as a whole (or offense/defense/special teams) to look like? I think this is a good question for BW too. As a coaching staff, how does he grade progress?
Our defense is forcing turnovers at a much higher rate than anyone would expect.
What do you expect our defense to do against Marshall when our offense receives the opening kick and after rushing for a 1st down, attempts three straight passes and gives the ball back with only 64 seconds of possession?
That opening drive right there was the perfect example of what is wrong with this team.
^that. All season long the D has been put in bad positions due to the style of offense we play. No.. I'm all for if it ain't broke don't fix it. But this season should be (by this point) a wake up call that it's broken against bigger and faster opponents... at least until we have the personnel to compete with that same style.
I feel we're forcing a square peg in a round hole right now. But, as I say that is it more beneficial to appear that way right now knowing you have recruiting classes waiting in the wings that will make that peg fit so better to just steer steady and weather the storm than flip things up? I don't know I'm not a football coach.
Progress would have to measured against a standard. Right now we don't have one due to at least 2 years now of playing substantially different opponents. Progress, or lack thereof, will be moe apparent when we play teams like Marshall a seconfd time. Eye ball test wise, I believe this defense is much better than last years, even if stats don't bear that out. Several concerns R8R makes I see also. Inability to get off blocks being a major one. That looks like a size disadvantage tome. I've seen numerous examples of our D backs literally turning their back on the blocker because they were physicall outmuscled. Neal (22). looked like a midget playing out there Saturday.
I like the approach this is a process and just enjoy the season for what it is. If there is no noticeable improvement next year, I'll be concerned. Still think 5-7 even 6-6 possible now that toughest teams (La Tech excluded) are behind us.
(10-06-2014 07:05 AM)ODUR8R Wrote: [ -> ]Our defense is forcing turnovers at a much higher rate than anyone would expect.
What do you expect our defense to do against Marshall when our offense receives the opening kick and after rushing for a 1st down, attempts three straight passes and gives the ball back with only 64 seconds of possession?
That opening drive right there was the perfect example of what is wrong with this team.
As I mentioned, set Marshall aside. The same mistakes we made against Towson 3 and 4 years ago, we are making against bigger faster and stronger opposition and they are making us pay.
We are not maintaining gap responsibilities. We are not using fundamentals to wrap up and drive with the legs to make a tackle.
Marshall and NC State were and are physically bigger, badder, and stronger than us. But MTSU, EMU and Hampton were not.If you were saying that size causes us to be unable to shed blocks I could buy it. I am worried about techniques and schemes. On a stretch running play, a defensive scheme should account for possible cutbacks. Weak side help as people call it.
I am not on the ledge because of the loss. I just find the question interesting. I have no clue if I am in the majority or the minority, but I personally (using both SMART goals and eye ball tests) have not seen much defensive progress.
One thing to keep in mind, ODU said they were going to focus on Marshall's run. Then they elected to start Christian Byrum, a freshman safety at outside linebacker which basically put six defensive backs on the field against the biggest offense they have ever seen.
I do not get that one at all.
And just one more thing...if you are defining progress as saying our defense is creating more tunrovers...well that is just wrong.
Through 6 games last year we had forced 16 TO's and through 6 games this year we have forced 11.
(10-06-2014 07:54 AM)BigBlue23 Wrote: [ -> ]And just one more thing...if you are defining progress as saying our defense is creating more tunrovers...well that is just wrong.
Through 6 games last year we had forced 16 TO's and through 6 games this year we have forced 11.
We aren't playing Albany, Howard, Rhode Island either. Forcing Marshall into three turnovers when we are getting crushed is impressive.
Is there progress? I don't know. If there is, it's not a linear progression but with ups and downs.
I know Marshall is bigger, faster, stronger, more seasoned, etc. I get all that. But I cannot ever remember a football game so mismatched that one team felt like they could run for 9 yards up the middle whenever they wanted.
How bad was it? We gave up 42 points in the first half despite forcing 3 turnovers.
I still see us possibly winning 5 or 6 games. But the reality is that, sans Eastern Michigan, our defense hasn't show the ability to compete with an FBS offense. If we don't score 40, we lose.
Here are the scoring numbers against FBS opponents so far...
ECU 52
Maryland 47
Pitt 35
Idaho 38
UNC 80
NC State 46
EMU 3
Rice 42
MTSU 41
Marshall 56
If we can start holding a few teams under 40, that'll be progress.
Defense
From a player standpoint, I try to look at our defense from the three perspectives;
1. Positional skills,
I am no expert here, but I like that we are arm tackling less each game. Our gap coverage is far more disciplined than in our history. I see improvement each game.
2.Positional awareness.
Assuming I am seeing the defense as the coaches designed it, the players seem to know where they are supposed to be most of the time now. Contrast that with the Hampton game where players were seemingly everywhere in a random sort of way.
I like that we are creating turnovers, even vs Marshall. As many have noted, our defense has been put in very vulnerable positions by our offense.
3. heart
These guys never quit
We will need to make major strides in personnel up front going forward. Our D-line is just too small to stop an FBS run, or pressure an FBS pass.
As for coaching, some have questioned our seeming soft scheme. This is probably by design in order to keep all plays in front us so as not to give up the big play.
Given the dichotomy of size and speed between us an most of our opponents, I don't see that we can do anything else.
Offense
We have regressed, and I am not optimistic about recovery, at least in the short term. From a personnel perspective we have had the luxury of almost a perfect storm in three critical areas since we beat UMass.
1. Quarterback.
Not much to say here. TH is a once-in-a-generation or maybe even more player. We may never see the likes of him at QB again, and our offense as currently constructed is predicated on a healthy TH.
Unfortunately this year, he has lesser WRs, lesser OL, and he himself seems not quite right physically.
2. Offensive Line.
We have some very good players coming along, and we will be solid; but even at the G5 level it is unusual and special to have 2 NFL prospects (Morrell and Born) at the same time. We may never see that again.
3. Receivers.
We have had excellent receivers.
This year we lost a few, and it has hurt us, however, this is one area where we may get better quickly, from both a speed and size standpoint.
Going forward we need to run. In fact this season we need to run. Lawry is a beast. Heinicke cannot do it all by himself, nor is it fair to put him in that position. Dropping straight back deep, seeing that receivers are initially covered, scrambling and then trying to hit those same receivers may not be how our offense is designed, but it has been the reality of it for a long time.
Unless we coach more to personnel, and less to a philosophical construct, we will not get appreciably better in the coming years.
Special teams/kicking game.
We have regressed here as well, and we were never great. We need a return game.
Both skill positions, punter and kicker are not nearly as good what we had, although that may progress as these guys get acclimated to college football
The defense gave up 3 points against EMU. The defense was on the field 15 of the first 20 minutes in the MTSU game. The defense created three first half turnovers against Marshall. There is no doubt that we have to get bigger, stronger, faster, and smarter on that side of the ball, but I absolutely believe (based on the eyeball test) that they are much better than they've ever been. The issue the last couple of games has been the fact that the offense can't get anything going early and our special teams have been a disaster. The defense has continuously been placed in terrible positions and, for so many, will continue to be the scapegoat.
Honestly, my major concern is that our fans are so spoiled. Nothing I've seen this year has surprised me. Look at the rosters of the teams we've played in league. Rice had 35 juniors or seniors, all recruited to play FBS. MTSU had 35 juniors or seniors, all recruited to play FBS. Marshall had 42 juniors or seniors, all recruited to play FBS. People love to compare us to UTSA because they started about the same time we did. Remember, they recruited for FBS right away. Their roster has 58 juniors or seniors, all recruited to play (transitional) FBS football. Our roster has 33 juniors or seniors, but only 15 of whom were recruited to play FBS.
It should be a no-brainer that we are going to be outsized in every game. I know some fans don't like hearing this, but it's going to take 3-4 full recruiting cycles for us to be in a position to compete for a league title.
Physically, I thought we were making progress towards becoming a legit I-A football team -- until I saw MTSU and Marshall. I couldn't believe the difference in size, and it really drives home the difference between I-AA and I-A. Even when we cit the MTSU lead to 10, I never had the feeling that we could get it closer than that; in fact, I thought there was no way we'd get the needed 3-and-out against them that would keep the momentum on our side. I guess I don't see a lot of progress, if any. We make the same mistakes against good I-A teams that we made against the better I-AA teams we played. We play really hard and out staff works really hard, and there's some comfort in that, I guess.
This week's opponent: 47 juniors or seniors recruited to play FBS.
(10-06-2014 08:19 AM)jumpshooter Wrote: [ -> ]Physically, I thought we were making progress towards becoming a legit I-A football team -- until I saw MTSU and Marshall. I couldn't believe the difference in size, and it really drives home the difference between I-AA and I-A. Even when we cit the MTSU lead to 10, I never had the feeling that we could get it closer than that; in fact, I thought there was no way we'd get the needed 3-and-out against them that would keep the momentum on our side. I guess I don't see a lot of progress, if any. We make the same mistakes against good I-A teams that we made against the better I-AA teams we played. We play really hard and out staff works really hard, and there's some comfort in that, I guess.
Except that we did. At 31-21, our defense stepped up and got a 3 and out. Our offense then threw a 1-yard pass, followed up by back-to-back sacks and had to punt it away. That was the ballgame.
UTEP has a big offense but not much of a passing game which means we will have to commit numbers to stopping the run. On the flip side, their defense is not much bigger than many of the FCS schools we are accustomed to playing.
Coach, gotta admit I had forgotten that. Thanks for keeping me straight on that. I guess the bottom line for me is that I didn't think the game was as close as the final score.
The last 2 games the offense did the defense absolutely no favors.
But I did see multiple stripped balls and interceptions... when was the last time we saw that? I define that as progress. Now my attention is being drawn to our offensive play calling and our o-line troubles.
We had the ball in MTSU territory with 3:30 left in the game. A win isn't probable, but certainly possible.
As far as progress, we played the best offense we have ever faced with the best QB we have ever faced and our defense played better than they did vs. Maryland and UNC by far.
We were far worse vs. the pass against Maryland with similar difficulty stopping the run.
We were far worse vs. the pass against UNC and were better against the run than vs. UNC.
Here are the following yards per play:
UNC 10.60
Maryland 8.51
Marshall 7.68
NC State 7.28
ECU 6.33
MTSU 6.20
Rice 5.98
Pittsburgh 5.87
EMU 2.99
Here is what Marshall offensively did to us:
56 points (average 48)
77 plays (average 77)
591 yards (average 596)
yards per pass 8.78 (average 8.97)
yards per run 7.1 (average 7.0)
Yards per play 7.68 (average 7.84)
Yards per point 10.55 (average 12.42)
While the numbers against us look really bad, they essentially put up the same numbers against us that they average for every game. (Their coach even mentioned it was the best game they played) The list of defenses they've played are:
Miami (OH)
Rhode Island
Ohio
Akron
For anyone looking for progress or wanted to look on the bright side, we played significantly better defense vs. them than Ohio did and we played surprisingly played as well (or bad) defensively against Marshall as their average opponent has.
I think we are the only team to score a first half touchdown against Marshall, so there's that...