(09-15-2014 06:25 AM)JRsec Wrote: [ -> ]The interesting thing is that in two decades it is far more likely (given the direction of demographics) that it is the Big 10 that could face the pressure. Ohio State is contiguous to the SEC. It is not out of the realm of possibility that by that time many schools in the Big 10 may be gearing down on football due to declining success and even declining interest from a fan base with other interests (a problem that may face schools everywhere given this next generations trends). The football traditions at Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Penn State and Nebraska are extremely strong.
Don't forget Iowa.
Quote:What I could see is that the Southeast and Southwest become the last bastion of football popularity left in the country. Schools like North Carolina, Virginia, Duke, Syracuse, B.C., Georgia Tech and Pitt have started pulling back on the sport. Miami as a private has as well. Florida State, Clemson and Virginia Tech along with Notre Dame need football first homes as well. So what we wind up with is a drastically reduced cadre of football schools.
Alabama, Auburn, Arkansas, Baylor, Clemson, Florida, Florida State, Georgia, Iowa, Iowa State (their fans love football even if they lose), Kansas, Kansas State, Kentucky, Louisiana State, Louisville, Michigan, Michigan State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Missouri, Nebraska, (perhaps N.C. State), Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Ohio State, Penn State, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Virginia Tech, and West Virginia comprise the only football playing schools in the Midwest, Southeast, and Southwest. Note: Kentucky stays in because Louisville does. I don't see Vanderbilt sticking it out, but Baylor would because of their culture.
Out west it could be a bit more fickle. Arizona, Arizona State, B.Y.U., U.S.C., U.C.L.A., Oregon, Washington, and possibly Cal and Stanford stick it out. I don't know about Utah but it is likely they do as well. I think Colorado gives it the adios.
In 20 years Jayhawk this might be the last bastion of college football in the U.S. That's 40 - 42 schools. It is enough to keep it alive and perhaps popular as a national sport. But the flavor of it will linger the longest in the Southeast and Southwest with bastions in the Midwest and far West.
I think if it comes to that there will be one national conference of football playing schools.
I think the next trend in realignment is all the football-first schools leave their current conferences in order to form a loose confederation of programs and schedule each other for games. Notre Dame would be part of this grouping, as this won't require them to "join a conference". Scheduling would be from this grouping alone:
Iowa, Texas, Oklahoma, LSU, Alabama, Michigan, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Florida, Florida State, Notre Dame, Navy, Stanford, Georgia, USC, UCLA, Oregon, Washington, Arizona State, Ohio State, South Carolina, Auburn, Alabama, Tennessee, Penn State, Nebraska, Kansas State, Texas A&M, West Virginia, ECU, Missouri, Arkansas, Virginia Tech, Clemson, Louisville, BYU
Conferences would become more interesting and reflect the survival instincts of the remaining schools:
- Indiana, Purdue, Kentucky, Cincinnati, Illinois, Northwestern, Iowa State, Minnesota
- Pitt, Syracuse, Boston College, UConn, Rutgers, Temple, Maryland, Army
- Virginia, UNC, NC State, Duke, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, Miami, South Florida
- Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Vanderbilt, Central Florida, Tulane, Houston, Rice, Memphis
- Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Baylor, TCU, SMU, Tulsa, Kansas, New Mexico
- Colorado, Utah, Arizona, Nevada, Air Force, Oregon State, Washington State, Cal
The so-called G5 would be reorganized into regional groupings. Olympic sports saves a lot of money from less travel.