My concern is that a team could lose two or more games in the AAC and still win conference. I look at the teams this year and there is quite a bit of parity.
I think we will be tough, along iwth UCF and Cinci. But I also think Memphis will surprise (good D coaching), as will USF (seem to have a lot of talent) and possibly even Temple.
Parity in the SEC means that every team is GREAT! Parity in the AAC means every team is mediocre....
It is really favorable for one team to run the table
I'd say that parity is not a good thing for the teams in this conference. Parity is great if one team manages to run the table (see: UCF last year).
However, if there is parity then the likelihood is much larger that no teams will finish the season unscathed and that will put an undefeated team from a weaker conference ahead of our champion.
Parity is bad when you need at least one team to run the table.
ECU, UCF, UH, Cincy .................... the rest.
Theres not THAT much parity
(08-25-2014 11:56 AM)NBPirate Wrote: [ -> ]ECU, UCF, UH, Cincy .................... the rest.
Theres not THAT much parity
And as long as one of these teams makes the Access Bowl every year (and wins most of the time) and the others win their bowl games, we'll be fine.
Parity is
not a good thing.
(08-25-2014 11:56 AM)NBPirate Wrote: [ -> ]ECU, UCF, UH, Cincy .................... the rest.
Theres not THAT much parity
That's a lot more parity than other conferences. Not to mention that there are other schools in "the rest" that will likely do better than you're giving credit.
In the ACC, the following teams have won football championships in the last ten years:
Virginia Tech 4x
Florida State 3x
Clemson 1x
Wake Forest 1x
(Vacated) 1x
7 of the last ten championships have been won by 2 teams in a 15 member conference. That's what a conference without parity looks like.
(08-25-2014 11:56 AM)NBPirate Wrote: [ -> ]ECU, UCF, UH, Cincy .................... the rest.
Theres not THAT much parity
We'll see how long that lasts.
I'd rather have parity and beat all the Privileged 5 on our schedules. Beating them gives the aura of league supremacy.
Fire June
.
It doesn't matter so long as we win OOC.
Parity is a killer, we learned that from the old BE days. Even if everyone is GOOD, as evidenced by OOC or bowl records, rankings is what everyone cares about. Parity ensures difficult to get ranked high.
Add another vote against parity. We need several teams doing well and not beating each other up. Very much like the MWC did before losing Utah, TCU, and BYU. Ideally an undefeated team or two and a couple one or two lose teams. Having a six way tie at 7-4 for first place is stupid and undermines the imagine we're trying to build.
I'd say no...because this is a 12 team conference with separate divisions. The issue the old BE had was playing the round robin 7 game sked with 5 OOC. Now we are looking at 8 and 4.
I think we'll see the cream rise in this format and with the two best playing for that G5 spot, it should create an even higher rated champ.
(08-25-2014 11:56 AM)NBPirate Wrote: [ -> ]ECU, UCF, UH, Cincy .................... the rest.
Theres not THAT much parity
Not sure that is correct, as our league champ last year could have easily lost 4-5 games against conference opponents. Come on...if not for a perfect late game pass from Blake Bortles USF's worst team ever beats UCF's best team ever. Ditto for Memphis...who is one of my dark horses this year...with any luck they too beat UCF.
UCF receives all the credit for making plays when they needed and had a special player like Bortles...but there isn't that much of a talent gap between top and bottom of the league. Again, UCF met every challenge last year....but they hardly dominated on their way to winning the conference. The question is whether that will continue this year with a new QB, RB and rebuilt OL.
IMO, long term parity is good if it means everyone is raising their level of play. This is how a supposedly undeserving UCF was able to kick the living crap out of an over-rated and over confident Baylor team. The old BigEast had the same stigma but all we saw was WVU and UL regularly win their BCS bowl games...along with their other teams do well in their bowl games.
My $0.02
Parity is a great thing, provided our conference holds it's own versus the OOC opponents. If we have most of our teams in the Top 75 (or so) at year's end with one-three in the Top 25 (which could very well happen this year) we will all but lock up the Access Bowl slot, provided that the MWC champ does not finish undefeated and our champ finishes with no more than 1-2 losses.
Take this for example: let's say ECU wins the conference and finishes 10-2 with losses to only South Carolina and Cinci. Cinci finishes at 9-3, with two losses in conference and Houston and UCF each finish at 9-3 as well. I think that ECU would get the nod over a 1-loss Boise State and an undefeated Marshall squad.
I've seen where we've been picked by one publication to win the AAC and go to the Cotton Bowl. I don't think that we'll do that... but one can dream.
(08-25-2014 03:01 PM)Ned Low Wrote: [ -> ]Parity is a great thing, provided our conference holds it's own versus the OOC opponents. If we have most of our teams in the Top 75 (or so) at year's end with one-three in the Top 25 (which could very well happen this year) we will all but lock up the Access Bowl slot, provided that the MWC champ does not finish undefeated and our champ finishes with no more than 1-2 losses.
Take this for example: let's say ECU wins the conference and finishes 10-2 with losses to only South Carolina and Cinci. Cinci finishes at 9-3, with two losses in conference and Houston and UCF each finish at 9-3 as well. I think that ECU would get the nod over a 1-loss Boise State and an undefeated Marshall squad.
I've seen where we've been picked by one publication to win the AAC and go to the Cotton Bowl. I don't think that we'll do that... but one can dream.
We won't really know until we see how the selection committee acts in 2014. Would the selection committee really take a 10-2 East Carolina-AAC champ over an undefeated Marshall? I don't know.
IMO, the selection committee would likely take a one-loss AAC or MWC champ over undefeated Marshall...but I'm thinking the selection committee takes Marshall over a two-loss champ.
It's still a beauty pageant, and undefeated records are sexy.
(08-25-2014 11:56 AM)NBPirate Wrote: [ -> ]ECU, UCF, UH, Cincy .................... the rest.
Theres not THAT much parity
Yeah. We need a clear #1,2,3,4 like last year. Can't have random upsets each week.
#1 needs to go 8-0 in conf play
#2 needs to go 7-1(or 8-0) in conf play
#3 needs to go 6-2(or 7-1) in conf play
#4 needs to go 6-2 in conf play
Then there needs to be parity among the rest, no 0-8 or 1-7 in conf records.
(08-25-2014 03:13 PM)YNot Wrote: [ -> ] (08-25-2014 03:01 PM)Ned Low Wrote: [ -> ]Parity is a great thing, provided our conference holds it's own versus the OOC opponents. If we have most of our teams in the Top 75 (or so) at year's end with one-three in the Top 25 (which could very well happen this year) we will all but lock up the Access Bowl slot, provided that the MWC champ does not finish undefeated and our champ finishes with no more than 1-2 losses.
Take this for example: let's say ECU wins the conference and finishes 10-2 with losses to only South Carolina and Cinci. Cinci finishes at 9-3, with two losses in conference and Houston and UCF each finish at 9-3 as well. I think that ECU would get the nod over a 1-loss Boise State and an undefeated Marshall squad.
I've seen where we've been picked by one publication to win the AAC and go to the Cotton Bowl. I don't think that we'll do that... but one can dream.
We won't really know until we see how the selection committee acts in 2014. Would the selection committee really take a 10-2 East Carolina-AAC champ over an undefeated Marshall? I don't know.
IMO, the selection committee would likely take a one-loss AAC or MWC champ over undefeated Marshall...but I'm thinking the selection committee takes Marshall over a two-loss champ.
It's still a beauty pageant, and undefeated records are sexy.
I thought that SOS was going to be a big part of the equation; am I wrong?
If so and an undefeated Marshall team gets in over a two-loss AAC champ, assuming that SOS plays out like many suspect that it will (with Marshall's schedule being a cake walk)- then the whole system will be a seen as being a stinking turd.
Marshall should go undefeated... but it's hard to do for most teams, no matter what the level of competition is. I think that Ohio will get them, as always. Middle Tenn will also be tough, as will Western KY. We'll find out soon enough...
(08-25-2014 03:13 PM)YNot Wrote: [ -> ] (08-25-2014 03:01 PM)Ned Low Wrote: [ -> ]Parity is a great thing, provided our conference holds it's own versus the OOC opponents. If we have most of our teams in the Top 75 (or so) at year's end with one-three in the Top 25 (which could very well happen this year) we will all but lock up the Access Bowl slot, provided that the MWC champ does not finish undefeated and our champ finishes with no more than 1-2 losses.
Take this for example: let's say ECU wins the conference and finishes 10-2 with losses to only South Carolina and Cinci. Cinci finishes at 9-3, with two losses in conference and Houston and UCF each finish at 9-3 as well. I think that ECU would get the nod over a 1-loss Boise State and an undefeated Marshall squad.
I've seen where we've been picked by one publication to win the AAC and go to the Cotton Bowl. I don't think that we'll do that... but one can dream.
We won't really know until we see how the selection committee acts in 2014. Would the selection committee really take a 10-2 East Carolina-AAC champ over an undefeated Marshall? I don't know.
IMO, the selection committee would likely take a one-loss AAC or MWC champ over undefeated Marshall...but I'm thinking the selection committee takes Marshall over a two-loss champ.
It's still a beauty pageant, and undefeated records are sexy.
Depends on what the two losses are. ECU might have a better shot if they they lose to Cincy on the road and beat two of North Carolina/South Carolina/Virginia Tech than they will if they run the conference slate but go 1-2 against their big OOC opponents. In all likelihood, a G5 isn't getting the access bowl slot if they don't win their conference, and it'll be OOC SOS and success against it that separates the wheat from the chaff.
A perfect Marshall may still get in over a two-loss ECU, but if they Pirates can boast two wins against quality P5 programs and a title from a stronger conference, it's a pretty good case.
(08-25-2014 03:54 PM)Ned Low Wrote: [ -> ]I thought that SOS was going to be a big part of the equation; am I wrong?
If so and an undefeated Marshall team gets in over a two-loss AAC champ, assuming that SOS plays out like many suspect that it will (with Marshall's schedule being a cake walk)- then the whole system will be a seen as being a stinking turd.
Marshall should go undefeated... but it's hard to do for most teams, no matter what the level of competition is. I think that Ohio will get them, as always. Middle Tenn will also be tough, as will Western KY. We'll find out soon enough...
SOS will be huge to select the top 4 teams - to play in the CFP.
But, in all honesty, I don't think the selection committee will be thinking that much about SOS when its ranking #8-#25. And a 13-0 G5 champ will look better than an 11-2 G5 champ for many on the selection committee, regardless of all the pesky details about SOS.
Think about it - the selection committee will have already been through like 3 or 4 rounds of selection and voting and will already have the CFP matchups established by the time they get to the rounds that decide the G5 slot. I'm just saying - I won't be surprised if Marshall gets into the access bowl over at least two other G5 champs that are clearly better.
(08-25-2014 02:45 PM)CyberBull Wrote: [ -> ] (08-25-2014 11:56 AM)NBPirate Wrote: [ -> ]ECU, UCF, UH, Cincy .................... the rest.
Theres not THAT much parity
Not sure that is correct, as our league champ last year could have easily lost 4-5 games against conference opponents. Come on...if not for a perfect late game pass from Blake Bortles USF's worst team ever beats UCF's best team ever. Ditto for Memphis...who is one of my dark horses this year...with any luck they too beat UCF.
UCF receives all the credit for making plays when they needed and had a special player like Bortles...but there isn't that much of a talent gap between top and bottom of the league. Again, UCF met every challenge last year....but they hardly dominated on their way to winning the conference. The question is whether that will continue this year with a new QB, RB and rebuilt OL.
IMO, long term parity is good if it means everyone is raising their level of play. This is how a supposedly undeserving UCF was able to kick the living crap out of an over-rated and over confident Baylor team. The old BigEast had the same stigma but all we saw was WVU and UL regularly win their BCS bowl games...along with their other teams do well in their bowl games.
My $0.02
AMEN.
Tulane beat ECU last year and will be MUCH more talented (though young) than last year, yet nobody is giving them a chance to even make a little noise. If our O Line is as improved as reports say, we'll be no less than 4-4 in conference, and a favorite next year.
ROLL WAVE!