This is the 49ers last year as a FCS member, and they will be joining us for football NEXT season. So it's only right that we spend some time talking about their opener. Charlotte @ Campbell is a return match, with the 49ers traveling to Buie's Creek to take on the Camels. I couldn't find much on Campbell, although most of what I've read is that they were more competitive last year than their 3-9 record would seem to suggest. (They are in the Pioneer League, btw.)
But last year, in Charlotte's opener, they blew away Campbell with 52-7 win, but Campbell will be playing at home and is reportedly a better team this year than last. But so is Charlotte, and I do expect them to take this game, on the road, but perhaps not as convincingly as last year's game.
I'd love to hear from Charlotte fans more on what this year's team looks like.
Now, a word about your schedule. I do worry that this FCS (and lower level) schedule is not sufficiently preparatory for your jump to C-USA next year. That can be overcome with solid wins against the tougher FCS teams on this schedule (Coastal Carolina, James Madison, and Charleston Southern, all 3 of which are at home for you.) Even Division 3 Wesley could be a challenge as they are predicted to end up 4th in their Division.
To make the jump successfully, solid, consistent execution at all positions and a 9-3 or 10-2 record against this level of competition can do it. I may be all wet on this point, but I am comparing your 2nd year to UTSA's second year, and their WAC schedule and tougher OOC schedule helped them considerably, I believe. I just worry a bit that the schedule is a little too soft considering that this is your last year in FCS.
Having said that, go kick some FCS tail this year! I'll be rooting for you!
If only we had a game scheduled against an FBS team, perhaps from Conference USA....
I wish the schedule did more to prepare us for next year, unfortunately many of these contracts were signed the idea of being FBS in year 3 would have gotten you laughed out of the room. Western Carolina backed out of a game on Nov 2nd, I'm surprised we didn't pursue and FBS game as a replacement.
Campbell beat Iowa!
They are legit!
I think you pegged it pretty well CNelson but I won't be surprised if we light Campbell up again. Last year most of our players were freshmen or RS-freshmen, and the more experienced transfer players that we did have were coming off a year of sitting out. I think we will get a noticable performance bump this year from the experience of last year. I also think we suited up about 40-45 scholarship players last year. Between redshirting kids and injuries we were pretty thin. We probably won't be ready to win in our first C-USA season, but we will be ready to play.
We're going to be redshirting some of our sophomores and many of our incoming guys, so I don't know that we'll really be much better than last year honestly. We want to come into CUSA with as much age and conditioning on our guys as possible.
I think we beat Campbell like a drum again this year though. It's the games against JMU, CCU, and NCCU that scare me the most.
I heard an interview with Campbell's HC Mike Minter, and he said that he has been getting some transfers in from "bigger schools" so I expect their talent level to be higher. Minter also has a year under his belt as a HC. That being said, we should expect a similar result that we saw last year. They will be hype for the Thursday night home opener, but I expect our added talent and now experience to win handily.
As for the season, it is hard to know what to expect. How much will a year of experience and an off season in the weight room improve our Freshman from last year? Most of the guys we had on the field last year committed to us before they knew about C-USA. The guys who RS last year and the incoming guys, I would assume are on a higher talent level and could be considered C-USA level guys. Hopefully some of these guys are talented enough to get on the field as true Freshman or contribute significantly as RS Freshmen.
We have 4 games that we must win on our schedule (Campbell, JCSU, Wesley, MSU), 2 games that I would be surprised if we win (CCU, JMU), and the other 5 are 50/50 games (NCCU, CSU, The Citadel, GWU, Elon). I think a 7 win season is reasonable. We play our toughest games at home, most of the 50/50 games on the road. I don't know how well this schedule prepares us for C-USA, but the games against JMU and CCU should be an indicator.
Mr Bo, I want to move Elon into a will win category and I suspect the Citadel goes there too. Key injuries could just kill us, but I expect 7 wins and am leaning towards 8.
(07-23-2014 10:09 AM)Nugget49er Wrote: [ -> ]Mr Bo, I want to move Elon into a will win category and I suspect the Citadel goes there too. Key injuries could just kill us, but I expect 7 wins and am leaning towards 8.
The 4 games I mentioned were MUST win games. I expect to beat Elon as they just fired their coach and are starting over. I don't know what the Citadel has returning, but last year they lost to ODU 59-58, and lost to CSU by a FG. 3 of their other losses were by a TD or less and they played a quality FCS schedule. That game could be tough on the road.
A game against a soup can? Y'all best win.
(07-23-2014 10:43 AM)shiftyeagle Wrote: [ -> ]A game against a soup can? Y'all best win.
IDK, they could be facing the Chunky variety.
(07-23-2014 11:48 AM)PirateTreasureNC Wrote: [ -> ] (07-23-2014 10:43 AM)shiftyeagle Wrote: [ -> ]A game against a soup can? Y'all best win.
IDK, they could be facing the Chunky variety.
Chunky would probably beat us
(07-23-2014 08:16 AM)itsbraille49 Wrote: [ -> ]If only we had a game scheduled against an FBS team, perhaps from Conference USA....
You did, and you guys canx'd it at the last minute last year. Coincidentally, we had to pay Campbell handsomely to be your replacement.
Citadel plays an option offense....not a good matchup for most teams. Ill be interested to see how Charlotte fares in that one.
(07-23-2014 07:41 PM)ODUsmitty Wrote: [ -> ] (07-23-2014 08:16 AM)itsbraille49 Wrote: [ -> ]If only we had a game scheduled against an FBS team, perhaps from Conference USA....
You did, and you guys canx'd it at the last minute last year. Coincidentally, we had to pay Campbell handsomely to be your replacement.
We cancelled it because you bailed on the 2014 game in Charlotte. We needed a H and H and got one from JMU after you bailed.
(07-23-2014 07:54 PM)Beans N Cornbread Wrote: [ -> ]Citadel plays an option offense....not a good matchup for most teams. Ill be interested to see how Charlotte fares in that one.
We faced Charleston Southern last year, as well as this year, and they run an option offense. They were ranked when we faced them last season and we hung with them until the 4th quarter. They just wore us down.
I think we might've faced another option team too but I cant quite remember.
A couple of thoughts in Charlotte this season.
The biggest problem we will have will be depth. We only have around 60 guys in on scholarship and 12-15 of these will be red shirted. Another 10-12 guys will have red shirted last year. Throw in injuries and Charlotte will likely be running out only 45 scholarship players toward the end of the season. There is also some discussion among the coaching staff to redshirt some of last years true freshman this season. This would put a lot more first year players on the field than I'd thought after last season. We were very shallow on the defensive line last season and I don't think this I proves in 2014. The offensive line, on the other hand, is very talented and deep.
These has been some questions why Charlotte didn't schedule a FCS team this season. Most if the schedule was set up to get 6 home games and set up future series (Elon, Citadel). We are only playing 11 games, so there was probably room to get a FCS away game in. I don't know why we didn't play an additional game.
(07-25-2014 07:37 AM)Tintin Wrote: [ -> ]A couple of thoughts in Charlotte this season.
The biggest problem we will have will be depth. We only have around 60 guys in on scholarship and 12-15 of these will be red shirted. Another 10-12 guys will have red shirted last year. Throw in injuries and Charlotte will likely be running out only 45 scholarship players toward the end of the season. There is also some discussion among the coaching staff to redshirt some of last years true freshman this season. This would put a lot more first year players on the field than I'd thought after last season. We were very shallow on the defensive line last season and I don't think this I proves in 2014. The offensive line, on the other hand, is very talented and deep.
These has been some questions why Charlotte didn't schedule a FCS team this season. Most if the schedule was set up to get 6 home games and set up future series (Elon, Citadel). We are only playing 11 games, so there was probably room to get a FCS away game in. I don't know why we didn't play an additional game.
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(07-25-2014 07:37 AM)Tintin Wrote: [ -> ]A couple of thoughts in Charlotte this season.
The biggest problem we will have will be depth. We only have around 60 guys in on scholarship and 12-15 of these will be red shirted. Another 10-12 guys will have red shirted last year. Throw in injuries and Charlotte will likely be running out only 45 scholarship players toward the end of the season. There is also some discussion among the coaching staff to redshirt some of last years true freshman this season. This would put a lot more first year players on the field than I'd thought after last season. We were very shallow on the defensive line last season and I don't think this I proves in 2014. The offensive line, on the other hand, is very talented and deep.
These has been some questions why Charlotte didn't schedule a FCS team this season. Most if the schedule was set up to get 6 home games and set up future series (Elon, Citadel). We are only playing 11 games, so there was probably room to get a FCS away game in. I don't know why we didn't play an additional game.
Your scholly numbers are off a little bit. We will have 75 this year, probably 15-20 RS and 85 next year.
Regardless your point about depth is a valid one. Last year lack of depth really hurt us on defense and hurt us significantly on special teams. The added scholarships should help in those areas this season.
http://coachingsearch.247sports.com/Arti...d-29346526
My two concerns for this season are if our defensive line can hold it together this year and whether or not Matt Johnson can progress enough to be our starting QB in 2015.
A little more depth this year should get us to 6 or 7 wins.