Saw Swofford said this today:
Swofford on 8 vs. 9 league games: “Just because you play 1 more conference game doesn’t make your strength of schedule better"
I guess not automatically but it sure doesn't hurt at all. If you play 8 conference games- a P5 team, and a FCS team- generally speaking you are going to have 2 G5 teams as 11 and 12 games. If you play 9 conference games, you're generally going to still have that 1 good P5 OOC game along with a FCS game. But only 1 G5 team.
So what Swofford is saying is that playing a G5 team is better than playing a team in his own conference. Brilliant!
Though you could also follow the normal pattern of those Big Ten schools that play 10 P5 schools, and drop the FCS game. In which case Swofford is saying that playing an FCS school is better than playing a team in his own conference.
He didn't mean it the way you are describing but he's right. If your extra game is against the bottom of the conference it hurts you SOS wise. That's one of the problems with the Big 12. If two teams suck, it drags the rest of the conference down because of the number of teams.
Frankly, I don't see how you can gauge SOS if you're only playing yourself.
The SEC is making the same argument.
Essentially, the ACC and SEC are betting that the CFP committee is just blowing hot air when it says that strength of schedule will be an important factor for the committee. Maybe they're right.
Here is how strength of schedule works.
1. Play 12 opponents
2. Establish some sort of ranking to place FBS schools from #1 -#129 in terms of their strength.
3. Take that rank for the 12 teams that your team plays, add them up, and divide by 12 (or 11 if you play a school that doesn't register on SOS for whatever reason).
There is your strength of schedule. Last year, Team A could have played Auburn, FSU, Alabama, Michigan State, Stanford, Baylor, The School for the Blind, ... Deaf, ... Dumb, ... Can't Make Left Turns, ... Vegetarians, and ITT Tech, and their SOS would probably be Top 25. It is a totality. Let's allow it to play out and see what the SOS shows.
(05-15-2014 12:35 PM)Wedge Wrote: [ -> ]The SEC is making the same argument.
Essentially, the ACC and SEC are betting that the CFP committee is just blowing hot air when it says that strength of schedule will be an important factor for the committee. Maybe they're right.
Or maybe they are realizing that the SOS issue only matters for the top few teams who have a realistic chance of making a playoff. Those schools can, and likely will, already schedule strong OOC games.
What difference does it make who UNC or NC State schedules OOC if they aren't even in the conversation for a playoff berth? Why make them follow some arbitrary scheduling model just because FSU, Clemson, Miami, and Va Tech need to boost their schedule strength to offset having to play a few weak conference opponents?
The only benefit of playing 9 vs 8 is so you can play teams more often in your conference.
You can tell it's the off season. Everyone wants to parse the words and spend pages upon pages speculating on what it might mean. I'm all for great discussions, but diving down into the minutia will drive you batty.
Here is the most likely meaning behind it. Playing 8 vs 9 conf games won't AUTOMATICALLY make your SOS stronger. Meaning, playing 8 conf games but loading up your OOC with the cream from the other P5 conferences will mean more than playing 9 conf games and having a weak OOC schedule. This is simple stuff, here. Of course the reverse is true. Playing 9 conf games plus a 10th strong P5 school OOC is better than playing 8 conf games and having 4 weak schools OOC.
(05-15-2014 12:35 PM)jaminandjachin Wrote: [ -> ]He didn't mean it the way you are describing but he's right. If your extra game is against the bottom of the conference it hurts you SOS wise. That's one of the problems with the Big 12. If two teams suck, it drags the rest of the conference down because of the number of teams.
Frankly, I don't see how you can gauge SOS if you're only playing yourself.
Your 12th game in a 8 game conference schedule is not going to be a strong team at all. You ahve 8 conference games, a P5 opponent, and a FCS opponent. The other 2 games are going to be generally speaking buy type games against G5 teams. Unless you are a wussy- your schedule with 9 conference games would be 9 conference, 1 P5, and 1 FCS team- then 1 buy G5 game. So 95% of the time- the difference is a buy g5 type of game vs a conference game. Unless your extra conference game is a dreg- it's a no brainer.
As far as the Big 12- last year- despite having 4 non bowl teams and 3 other teams with 5 losses- didn't have a single school with worse than 48th SOS. ACC had only 5/14 teams better than the worst Big 12 schedule. Big Ten had 5 teams worse than the worst Big 12. Hardly bringing down the Big 12.
Pac 12 with 9 had their worst being #31- better than any ACC school and better than all but 1 Big Ten team.
(05-15-2014 01:04 PM)miko33 Wrote: [ -> ]You can tell it's the off season. Everyone wants to parse the words and spend pages upon pages speculating on what it might mean. I'm all for great discussions, but diving down into the minutia will drive you batty.
Here is the most likely meaning behind it. Playing 8 vs 9 conf games won't AUTOMATICALLY make your SOS stronger. Meaning, playing 8 conf games but loading up your OOC with the cream from the other P5 conferences will mean more than playing 9 conf games and having a weak OOC schedule. This is simple stuff, here. Of course the reverse is true. Playing 9 conf games plus a 10th strong P5 school OOC is better than playing 8 conf games and having 4 weak schools OOC.
it won't automatically but 95% of the time it will be stronger.
(05-15-2014 01:07 PM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ] (05-15-2014 01:04 PM)miko33 Wrote: [ -> ]You can tell it's the off season. Everyone wants to parse the words and spend pages upon pages speculating on what it might mean. I'm all for great discussions, but diving down into the minutia will drive you batty.
Here is the most likely meaning behind it. Playing 8 vs 9 conf games won't AUTOMATICALLY make your SOS stronger. Meaning, playing 8 conf games but loading up your OOC with the cream from the other P5 conferences will mean more than playing 9 conf games and having a weak OOC schedule. This is simple stuff, here. Of course the reverse is true. Playing 9 conf games plus a 10th strong P5 school OOC is better than playing 8 conf games and having 4 weak schools OOC.
it won't automatically but 95% of the time it will be stronger.
Where did you get that figure?
If Florida were to drop Florida State or Georgia to drop Georgia Tech, or Clemson drop South Carolina, or Alabama quit playing in the early season classics to accomodate a 9 game schedule then playing 9 conference games isn't going to bolster the strength of schedule.
the game that you would see moved from a OOC game to a conference game in a 8 vs 9 is 95% of the time a G5 buy type game.
This year- Big 12- playing 9 conference games- EVERY team except for Baylor plays a P5 team OOC. Every team but Texas plays a FCS team. So pretty much the schedule is 9 conference, p5, FCS, G5. Pretty much the schedule in 8 game is 8 conference, p5, FCS, and 2 G5.
(05-15-2014 12:35 PM)Wedge Wrote: [ -> ]The SEC is making the same argument.
Essentially, the ACC and SEC are betting that the CFP committee is just blowing hot air when it says that strength of schedule will be an important factor for the committee. Maybe they're right.
or just maybe the SEC knows 8 SEC games trumps 9 in the other P5's. Probably 10 if you are truthful.
(05-15-2014 01:13 PM)arkstfan Wrote: [ -> ]If Florida were to drop Florida State or Georgia to drop Georgia Tech, or Clemson drop South Carolina, or Alabama quit playing in the early season classics to accomodate a 9 game schedule then playing 9 conference games isn't going to bolster the strength of schedule.
The thing is, as Big 12 has shown- that just isn't happening.
(05-15-2014 12:59 PM)ken d Wrote: [ -> ] (05-15-2014 12:35 PM)Wedge Wrote: [ -> ]The SEC is making the same argument.
Essentially, the ACC and SEC are betting that the CFP committee is just blowing hot air when it says that strength of schedule will be an important factor for the committee. Maybe they're right.
Or maybe they are realizing that the SOS issue only matters for the top few teams who have a realistic chance of making a playoff. Those schools can, and likely will, already schedule strong OOC games.
What difference does it make who UNC or NC State schedules OOC if they aren't even in the conversation for a playoff berth? Why make them follow some arbitrary scheduling model just because FSU, Clemson, Miami, and Va Tech need to boost their schedule strength to offset having to play a few weak conference opponents?
Any scheduling model is arbitrary.
True, though, that teams just trying to be 6-6 or 7-5 every year aren't going to be too concerned about whether FSU or LSU has a strong enough SOS to be looked at favorably by the CFP committee.
Its Swofford double talk. I'll transalate. The cumulative in-conference record is always going to be .500. There is going to be a winner and a loser for that 9th conference game. These P5 conferences don't want to eliminate some of their own teams from getting bowl qualified. I think you'll see them drop the FCS game before they go to a 9 game schedule.
(05-15-2014 01:26 PM)Attackcoog Wrote: [ -> ]Its Swofford double talk. I'll transalate. The cumulative in-conference record is always going to be .500. There is going to be a winner and a loser for that 9th conference game. These P5 conferences don't want to eliminate some of their own teams from getting bowl qualified. I think you'll see them drop the FCS game before they go to a 9 game schedule.
That's the thing. It's got nothing to do with SOS and everything to do with teams getting bowl eligible.
meh, its neither nothing or everything.
Its SOS for the top teams and bowl eligible for the lower teams maybe.
Fla st and clem voted for it because it has everything to do with being bowl eligible?
(05-15-2014 12:59 PM)ken d Wrote: [ -> ] (05-15-2014 12:35 PM)Wedge Wrote: [ -> ]The SEC is making the same argument.
Essentially, the ACC and SEC are betting that the CFP committee is just blowing hot air when it says that strength of schedule will be an important factor for the committee. Maybe they're right.
Or maybe they are realizing that the SOS issue only matters for the top few teams who have a realistic chance of making a playoff. Those schools can, and likely will, already schedule strong OOC games.
What difference does it make who UNC or NC State schedules OOC if they aren't even in the conversation for a playoff berth? Why make them follow some arbitrary scheduling model just because FSU, Clemson, Miami, and Va Tech need to boost their schedule strength to offset having to play a few weak conference opponents?
It matters to the schools who are in contention. Because if UNC and NC State have weak schedules, they become weaker opponents for FSU, Clemson, Miami and Virginia Tech.