Any takers? I'm willing to do it with odds, but he ain't budging.
He's weak if he wont do it with odds. The odds an 8 seed advances to the sweet 16 is probably somewhere around 15%. I bet the actual line should be around 5 to 1 or greater.
If he's interested with laying the corrects odds, I would be in.
(03-18-2014 01:33 PM)UofMstateU Wrote: [ -> ]He's weak if he wont do it with odds. The odds an 8 seed advances to the sweet 16 is probably somewhere around 15%. I bet the actual line should be around 5 to 1 or greater.
If he's interested with laying the corrects odds, I would be in.
You could have stopped after "He's weak."
(03-18-2014 01:33 PM)UofMstateU Wrote: [ -> ]He's weak if he wont do it with odds. The odds an 8 seed advances to the sweet 16 is probably somewhere around 15%. I bet the actual line should be around 5 to 1 or greater.
If he's interested with laying the corrects odds, I would be in.
According to this site we have a 6% chance of making the Sweet 16.
Some of us researched this earlier. The historical average of an 8 seed making the S16 is roughly just under 10%, calculating from 1985.
(03-18-2014 02:24 PM)TripleA Wrote: [ -> ]Some of us researched this earlier. The historical average of an 8 seed making the S16 is roughly just under 10%, calculating from 1985.
I like Tygrys' odds better for betting purposes.
But I'll lay $100 to make $1000 if Memphis advances to the S16 if he would like to take me up on that. There will, of course, have to be a trusted escrow person. But I'm game.
Since he wants an even bet...
Tell him if we are leading against UVA at halftime I will take his bet. Just stupid.
Geez, how many teams out there are even money to get to the sweet 16? Eight to ten maybe?
(03-18-2014 02:29 PM)UofMstateU Wrote: [ -> ] (03-18-2014 02:24 PM)TripleA Wrote: [ -> ]Some of us researched this earlier. The historical average of an 8 seed making the S16 is roughly just under 10%, calculating from 1985.
I like Tygrys' odds better for betting purposes.
But I'll lay $100 to make $1000 if Memphis advances to the S16 if he would like to take me up on that. There will, of course, have to be a trusted escrow person. But I'm game.
Just realized I forgot to link the site. haha. This was from another thread a day or two ago.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/...edictions/
So the fanbase here has no faith in the Josh Pastner guarantee of making it to the Sweet 16.
This was the THE year of S16 or bust, right?
(03-18-2014 04:15 PM)salukiblue Wrote: [ -> ]So the fanbase here has no faith in the Josh Pastner guarantee of making it to the Sweet 16.
This was the THE year of S16 or bust, right?
I have total faith, enough to bet a $1000 to win $10K, but I just don't believe I can trust someone to front $10K.
If those are the reasonable payouts for an 8 seed to make the S16, then I would expect the miserables who think we wont beat GW and should have hired Pearl to step up and put $1000 on the line against my $100.
Two different arguments. I guess fans have "course corrected" their opinion of the team.
Preseason, Memphis was top #13 in both polls, Virginia #24/25. If GW and Virginia had been a holiday tournament lineup, Memphis fans would have EXPECTED to win those two games. Fast forward three months later and Memphis fans are now begging to get odds vs. UVA and are "fairly confident" Memphis will even get by GW in the first round.
(03-18-2014 04:47 PM)salukiblue Wrote: [ -> ]Two different arguments. I guess fans have "course corrected" their opinion of the team.
Preseason, Memphis was top #13 in both polls, Virginia #24/25. If GW and Virginia had been a holiday tournament lineup, Memphis fans would have EXPECTED to win those two games. Fast forward three months later and Memphis fans are now begging to get odds vs. UVA and are "fairly confident" Memphis will even get by GW in the first round.
That would be the best depending on what most want the rest of their weekend to be like.