Even the fake numbers are coming in lower than expected.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/big-cut-u-...iness.html
Quote:The U.S. government slashed its estimate for fourth-quarter growth as consumer spending and exports were less robust than initially thought, suggesting some loss of momentum heading into 2014.
Gross domestic product expanded at a 2.4 percent annual rate, the Commerce Department said on Friday. That was down sharply from the 3.2 percent pace reported last month and the 4.1 percent logged in the third quarter.
Economists polled by Reuters had expected growth would be cut to a 2.5 percent pace.
But hey, all us cons who told you it would happen are just raciss.
The majority of the estimates that I see have been coming in are over expectations. 90% of the Bloomberg daily app push notifications this week have been over estimates. Interesting? The market has shifted to the positive these last two weeks.
They blaming the lower numbers on the weather?
Everything I have seen this week is coming in over estimates.
Manufacturing
Retail
February Bears are getting a significant haircut.
The impact of the weather is sometimes hard to accept as a reason for weakness, but it is there.
I actually think that the Administration believes that growth will be lower, as they have tapered the taper. Which is the larger reason behind the Stock Market rally this month.
At any rate, the US will outperform most developed nations economically this year, again.
(02-28-2014 10:32 AM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote: [ -> ]The impact of the weather is sometimes hard to accept as a reason for weakness, but it is there.
(02-28-2014 10:13 AM)VA49er Wrote: [ -> ]They blaming the lower numbers on the weather?
Of course. All weaknesses in economic indicators are due to the weather, even when the weakness comes from areas of the country that weren't hit as hard by the weather. All positive numbers are due to strong fundamentals and the "recovery."
(02-28-2014 10:50 AM)DrTorch Wrote: [ -> ]Wells Fargo to lay off 700
http://www.latimes.com/business/money/la...z2udFkfPea
I read this yesterday. Seems mortgage business is down, b/c housing market has slowed. Hmm, two more issues w/ our recovering economy.
Its a bit early to tell if this is a seasonal issue. I think the housing market probably needs to cool off in a few markets, some of which can be described as overheated.
What's your solution, no regulation of mortgage lenders, cutting taxes on the rich, and allowing banks to do whatever they want? Oh wait, we tried that before, didn't we?
(02-28-2014 10:27 AM)Machiavelli Wrote: [ -> ]Everything I have seen this week is coming in over estimates.
Manufacturing
Retail
February Bears are getting a significant haircut.
Yep. This economy is roaring. That's why the Fed is "only" pouring $65 billion into it every month: because the underlying fundamentals are so irrefutably strong. Don't think, just buy.
Are you wearing your "My Bernanke printed $1 trillion last year and all I got was this lousy 2.4% growth" t-shirt right now?
(02-28-2014 10:56 AM)BlazerFan11 Wrote: [ -> ] (02-28-2014 10:13 AM)VA49er Wrote: [ -> ]They blaming the lower numbers on the weather?
Of course. All weaknesses in economic indicators are due to the weather, even when the weakness comes from areas of the country that weren't hit as hard by the weather. All positive numbers are due to strong fundamentals and the "recovery."
It was the polar vortex, right? That's what caused the low numbers.
I really wish I understood it better, but all I can really say is the market is fickle and unpredictable and THE BEARS ARE GETTING BEAT UP in February. ESPECIALLY these last two weeks. Now I know you are being snarky but in the interest of intelligent dialogue I will not respond in kind. I'm calling into question the idea of 4th qrt growth being slashed. Every Bloomberg market update I have received this week is coming over in estimates. So somebody is wrong. I'm looking at the market today and I'm guessing it's the title to this thread.
(02-28-2014 11:13 AM)Machiavelli Wrote: [ -> ]I really wish I understood it better, but all I can really say is the market is fickle and unpredictable and THE BEARS ARE GETTING BEAT UP in February. ESPECIALLY these last two weeks.
Legit questions mach. Possible answers:
1. The big time players in the market have things rigged.
2. The market numbers you're looking at aren't tied directly to the GDP numbers (i.e., foreign sales, contrarian plays)
3. Some of the "correction" has been accounted for.
I don't know the answer, but I'm skeptical that the stock market is fully reflective of the overall economy.
What ticks me off. I went 85% cash about two weeks ago. I've been reading too much spin room but I thought we were in line for a 10% CORRECTION. I was wrong.
(02-28-2014 11:13 AM)Machiavelli Wrote: [ -> ]I really wish I understood it better, but all I can really say is the market is fickle and unpredictable and THE BEARS ARE GETTING BEAT UP in February. ESPECIALLY these last two weeks. Now I know you are being snarky but in the interest of intelligent dialogue I will not respond in kind. I'm calling into question the idea of 4th qrt growth being slashed. Every Bloomberg market update I have received this week is coming over in estimates. So somebody is wrong. I'm looking at the market today and I'm guessing it's the title to this thread.
The Bears are getting beat up because Obama pulled back on the taper. This is how it works.
There is a large pool of investment capital out there in the marketplace. Normally it would be distributed around 75-25 in stocks/bonds. But because interest rates SUCK, more of that that 25 percent is in the stock market. Which combined with the fact that levered companies make more money when interest rates are low, causes the stock market to increase even further.
Given the historical PE ratios, the Dow should be around 14500 instead of 16500.
(02-28-2014 11:28 AM)Machiavelli Wrote: [ -> ]What ticks me off. I went 85% cash about two weeks ago. I've been reading too much spin room but I thought we were in line for a 10% CORRECTION. I was wrong.
We are in for a correction, but no one knows when.
Any correction below 14000 is not going to be permanent IMHO.
I have a little money on the sidelines, but I'm not smart enough to time the market perfectly.
(02-28-2014 11:30 AM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote: [ -> ] (02-28-2014 11:13 AM)Machiavelli Wrote: [ -> ]I really wish I understood it better, but all I can really say is the market is fickle and unpredictable and THE BEARS ARE GETTING BEAT UP in February. ESPECIALLY these last two weeks. Now I know you are being snarky but in the interest of intelligent dialogue I will not respond in kind. I'm calling into question the idea of 4th qrt growth being slashed. Every Bloomberg market update I have received this week is coming over in estimates. So somebody is wrong. I'm looking at the market today and I'm guessing it's the title to this thread.
The Bears are getting beat up because Obama pulled back on the taper. This is how it works.
Market manipulation IMO.
(02-28-2014 11:36 AM)DrTorch Wrote: [ -> ] (02-28-2014 11:30 AM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote: [ -> ] (02-28-2014 11:13 AM)Machiavelli Wrote: [ -> ]I really wish I understood it better, but all I can really say is the market is fickle and unpredictable and THE BEARS ARE GETTING BEAT UP in February. ESPECIALLY these last two weeks. Now I know you are being snarky but in the interest of intelligent dialogue I will not respond in kind. I'm calling into question the idea of 4th qrt growth being slashed. Every Bloomberg market update I have received this week is coming over in estimates. So somebody is wrong. I'm looking at the market today and I'm guessing it's the title to this thread.
The Bears are getting beat up because Obama pulled back on the taper. This is how it works.
Market manipulation IMO.
Yep. And until QE really stops, I am in like Flynn.
(02-28-2014 11:36 AM)DrTorch Wrote: [ -> ] (02-28-2014 11:30 AM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote: [ -> ] (02-28-2014 11:13 AM)Machiavelli Wrote: [ -> ]I really wish I understood it better, but all I can really say is the market is fickle and unpredictable and THE BEARS ARE GETTING BEAT UP in February. ESPECIALLY these last two weeks. Now I know you are being snarky but in the interest of intelligent dialogue I will not respond in kind. I'm calling into question the idea of 4th qrt growth being slashed. Every Bloomberg market update I have received this week is coming over in estimates. So somebody is wrong. I'm looking at the market today and I'm guessing it's the title to this thread.
The Bears are getting beat up because Obama pulled back on the taper. This is how it works.
Market manipulation IMO.
Actually this isn't a straight up market manipulation on Obama's part, but an outgrowth or second level impact of Obama's policy to keep the QE going until our growth stabilizes around 3 percent.
(02-28-2014 11:51 AM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote: [ -> ] (02-28-2014 11:36 AM)DrTorch Wrote: [ -> ] (02-28-2014 11:30 AM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote: [ -> ] (02-28-2014 11:13 AM)Machiavelli Wrote: [ -> ]I really wish I understood it better, but all I can really say is the market is fickle and unpredictable and THE BEARS ARE GETTING BEAT UP in February. ESPECIALLY these last two weeks. Now I know you are being snarky but in the interest of intelligent dialogue I will not respond in kind. I'm calling into question the idea of 4th qrt growth being slashed. Every Bloomberg market update I have received this week is coming over in estimates. So somebody is wrong. I'm looking at the market today and I'm guessing it's the title to this thread.
The Bears are getting beat up because Obama pulled back on the taper. This is how it works.
Market manipulation IMO.
Actually this isn't a straight up market manipulation on Obama's part, but an outgrowth or second level impact of Obama's policy to keep the QE going until our growth stabilizes around 3 percent.
And when do you think that will be? Historically, we're just about due for another recession. Obama will do everything he can to kick the can down the road and hope the bottom falls out on the next President, but it'll be an uphill battle.