There has been a lot of talk about how weak this years schedule is and I agree for the most part. However I do argue that our weak schedule has kept us out of contention for an NCAA bid. It is the multiple losses to some sub 200 wins that has killed us.
Without those losses, we have the wins to not only make the tournament, but to have a pretty good seed. As a matter of fact, we have a historically strong record against top 50 teams.
Currently we are 2-1 against top 50 teams. Wins over USM and UNC and a double overtime loss to New Mexico on a miracle shot. We are about to move to 3-1 because Nebraska is coming on strong and is at 52. They are about to move inside the top 50 assuming they win the games they are expected to win. Next game should do it hosting Penn State at home.
If all holds, we will finish 3-1. I looked back thru our history and we have never finished with a winning record against top 50 teams. Below are the years we have had at least three wins. The last time was 2004 when we went 5-7.
2004 5-7
2000 3-4
1999 3-7
1994 3-4
1993 3-4
1989 3-3
1987 3-5
1986 5-7
1985 5-5
1984 3-4
1982 4-5
Never before have we won more top 50 games than we have lost. Conversely we are 7-4 against sub 200 teams. We could probably withstand one of those losses, but not 4.
PS. Notice how many top 50 schools we used to play.
(02-18-2014 12:18 PM)Memphis Blazer Wrote: [ -> ]There has been a lot of talk about how weak this years schedule is and I agree for the most part. However I do argue that our weak schedule has kept us out of contention for an NCAA bid. It is the multiple losses to some sub 200 wins that has killed us.
Without those losses, we have the wins to not only make the tournament, but to have a pretty good seed. As a matter of fact, we have a historically strong record against top 50 teams.
Currently we are 2-1 against top 50 teams. Wins over USM and UNC and a double overtime loss to New Mexico on a miracle shot. We are about to move to 3-1 because Nebraska is coming on strong and is at 52. They are about to move inside the top 50 assuming they win the games they are expected to win. Next game should do it hosting Penn State at home.
If all holds, we will finish 3-1. I looked back thru our history and we have never finished with a winning record against top 50 teams. Below are the years we have had at least three wins. The last time was 2004 when we went 5-7.
2004 5-7
2000 3-4
1999 3-7
1994 3-4
1993 3-4
1989 3-3
1987 3-5
1986 5-7
1985 5-5
1984 3-4
1982 4-5
Never before have we won more top 50 games than we have lost. Conversely we are 7-4 against sub 200 teams. We could probably withstand one of those losses, but not 4.
PS. Notice how many top 50 schools we used to play.
The main thing these numbers demonstrate to me is how frustratingly inconsistent this team has been. The USM game is a perfect example. Obviously, making shots changes everything. But even before we blew it open, the defensive intensity was totally different. I can't figure it out, because it doesn't seem to be an effort issue. It's more like unfocused effort when things go wrong. Guys dive down and help too much and give up unguarded threes. Too many crash the offensive boards and give up easy transition points because nobody is back.
I don't know if it's coaching or players who won't listen to coaching, but we flip from looking like a legit tournament team to a sub-.500 team so quickly that we simply have no idea what to expect from any game against any team. We could win the conference tournament or we could lose the first game by 20; neither would surprise me at all. And the one thing I can figure out -- that's not good.
The eliminating of the bad loses would of course help. Adding six more victories - eliminate our loses to all the cupcakes UAB would mathematically raise our RPI to .5537 or up to the high 80s from our current 165.
I know RPI is not the only consideration for a bid but IMHO in the very weak new CUSA and a RPI in the 80s UAB would not be considered for a at large bid even IF we are 3-1 against top 50.
In the future UAB will have to schedule much better in OOC - we can no longer play 7 teams with RPIs above 200(+1 more cupcake) since we NOW play EIGHT cupcakes inside CUSA.
The committee doesn't really pay attention to what your RPi is, but more to what your record is against your opponents Rpi, thus the top 50 talk.
The committee sure as hell does pay attention to what your RPI is. There is pretty much a cutoff on how high an RPI can be before they'll keep you out. They may use it less than they used to, but they use RPI.
Lord, we have this argument every year. We could eliminate this discussion by beating all the crappy teams and at least some of the good teams.
It really only matters if you are left out of the big dance due to your schedule strength.
We have not been left out due to that in recent history.
(02-18-2014 02:54 PM)the_blazerman Wrote: [ -> ]It really only matters if you are left out of the big dance due to your schedule strength.
We have not been left out due to that in recent history.
Yes, but we can look at comparable teams and not do it to ourselves. Look at Southern Miss last year.
(02-18-2014 02:39 PM)blazers9911 Wrote: [ -> ]The committee sure as hell does pay attention to what your RPI is. There is pretty much a cutoff on how high an RPI can be before they'll keep you out. They may use it less than they used to, but they use RPI.
I don't have the link, but the committee chairman said that they use the RPI only to detemine where your opponents are ranked, not where you are ranked. There is no cutoff. That is generally a by product of the other criteria they use.
This is why you hear more discussion of what someone's record against the top 50, not what someone's RPI record is.
All we had to do was beat a couple of crappy teams, but we couldn't do it
According to rpiwizard.com, had we won our WTF losses in conference to this point (UNT, ECU, F_U, Tulane) and won 3 out of the remaining 5 regular season games, we would still only have an RPI of 76, despite an overall record of 23-7 (12-4).
Too many cupcakes.
We will need a lap band after all the cupcakes we ate this year
Win the games you are supposed to and some of the ones you are not, and see what happens. Given where we were the last couple of years I didn't have *that* much problem with the schedule. Since at this point its win the conference tournament or nothing, I'm not going to get too riled up about it. Had we won almost all of our games and still been on (or worse, off) the bubble, *then* I'd be po'd. Now? Why bother? It's all a what-if, so I'm not gonna get all twisted up about it.
I'm sold. We play better against big teams anyway. If we're going to lose a bunch of games, it might as well be to better teams...
I just find it extremely frustrating that this is the first time ever that we have a winning record against the top 50 teams we have played and it doesn't help us.
I have found this an extremely frustrating season, period. For instance, playing as well as we did against Southern Miss, then coming out and pooping the bed Saturday just makes me crazy.