The SEC could make a move that would solidify its dominance and force other moves by the PAC 12 and Big TEN.
The SEC could invite Oklahoma and Oklahoma State:
SEC East
Alabama
Auburn
Florida
Georgia
Kentucky
South Carolina
Tennessee
Vanderbilt
SEC West
Arkansas
Louisiana State
Mississippi
Mississippi State
Missouri
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Texas A&M
The Big Ten then could invite Kansas and Kansas State
Big Ten East
Illinois
Indiana
Maryland
Michigan
Michigan State
Ohio State
Penn State
Rutgers
Big Ten West
Iowa
Kansas
Kansas State
Minnesota
Nebraska
Northwestern
Purdue
Wisconsin
Texas humbles itself and request admission to the PAC 12 bringing Texas Tech with them
PAC 14 West
California
Oregon
Oregon State
Stanford
UCLA
USC
Washington
PAC 14 East
Arizona
Arizona State
Colorado
Texas
Texas Tech
Utah
Washington State
The rest of the Big 12 joins the AAC along with BYU
AAC West
Baylor
Brigham Young
Houston
Iowa State
Memphis
Southern Methodist
Texas Christian
Tulsa
AAC East
Central Florida
Cincinnati
Connecticut
East Carolina
South Florida
Temple
Tulane
West Virginia
With the ACC/Notre Dame making the P5.
First round playoff - Conference Championship
2nd round playoff - Seeded conference Champions
3rd round playoff - National Championship
Nah.
I don't think OSU is a good fit in the conference. OU is toss up in terms of being a fit or not.
Ideally, the next two come from the existing footprint, Clemson and FSU, or somewhere East, North Carolina.
(01-05-2014 01:06 PM)HeartOfDixie Wrote: [ -> ]Nah.
I don't think OSU is a good fit in the conference. OU is toss up in terms of being a fit or not.
Ideally, the next two come from the existing footprint, Clemson and FSU, or somewhere East, North Carolina.
I factored in the GOR of the ACC so that eliminated Clemson, FSU and UNC.
P5 movement is over. Texas chose to keep the Big XII viable plus the ACC schools chose to keep their connections.
(01-05-2014 01:16 PM)C Marlow Wrote: [ -> ]P5 movement is over. Texas chose to keep the Big XII viable plus the ACC schools chose to keep their connections.
Think travel here for Texas.....in any other conference arrangement its going to be a nightmare.
(01-05-2014 01:04 PM)FloridaJag Wrote: [ -> ]The SEC could make a move that would solidify its dominance and force other moves by the PAC 12 and Big TEN.
The SEC could invite Oklahoma and Oklahoma State:
SEC East
Alabama
Auburn
Florida
Georgia
Kentucky
South Carolina
Tennessee
Vanderbilt
SEC West
Arkansas
Louisiana State
Mississippi
Mississippi State
Missouri
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Texas A&M
The Big Ten then could invite Kansas and Kansas State
Big Ten East
Illinois
Indiana
Maryland
Michigan
Michigan State
Ohio State
Penn State
Rutgers
Big Ten West
Iowa
Kansas
Kansas State
Minnesota
Nebraska
Northwestern
Purdue
Wisconsin
Texas humbles itself and request admission to the PAC 12 bringing Texas Tech with them
PAC 14 West
California
Oregon
Oregon State
Stanford
UCLA
USC
Washington
PAC 14 East
Arizona
Arizona State
Colorado
Texas
Texas Tech
Utah
Washington State
The rest of the Big 12 joins the AAC along with BYU
AAC West
Baylor
Brigham Young
Houston
Iowa State
Memphis
Southern Methodist
Texas Christian
Tulsa
AAC East
Central Florida
Cincinnati
Connecticut
East Carolina
South Florida
Temple
Tulane
West Virginia
With the ACC/Notre Dame making the P5.
First round playoff - Conference Championship
2nd round playoff - Seeded conference Champions
3rd round playoff - National Championship
Why do you have West Virginia and TCU going back to the AAC???
(01-05-2014 01:33 PM)Steve1981 Wrote: [ -> ] (01-05-2014 01:04 PM)FloridaJag Wrote: [ -> ]The SEC could make a move that would solidify its dominance and force other moves by the PAC 12 and Big TEN.
The SEC could invite Oklahoma and Oklahoma State:
SEC East
Alabama
Auburn
Florida
Georgia
Kentucky
South Carolina
Tennessee
Vanderbilt
SEC West
Arkansas
Louisiana State
Mississippi
Mississippi State
Missouri
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Texas A&M
The Big Ten then could invite Kansas and Kansas State
Big Ten East
Illinois
Indiana
Maryland
Michigan
Michigan State
Ohio State
Penn State
Rutgers
Big Ten West
Iowa
Kansas
Kansas State
Minnesota
Nebraska
Northwestern
Purdue
Wisconsin
Texas humbles itself and request admission to the PAC 12 bringing Texas Tech with them
PAC 14 West
California
Oregon
Oregon State
Stanford
UCLA
USC
Washington
PAC 14 East
Arizona
Arizona State
Colorado
Texas
Texas Tech
Utah
Washington State
The rest of the Big 12 joins the AAC along with BYU
AAC West
Baylor
Brigham Young
Houston
Iowa State
Memphis
Southern Methodist
Texas Christian
Tulsa
AAC East
Central Florida
Cincinnati
Connecticut
East Carolina
South Florida
Temple
Tulane
West Virginia
With the ACC/Notre Dame making the P5.
First round playoff - Conference Championship
2nd round playoff - Seeded conference Champions
3rd round playoff - National Championship
Why do you have West Virginia and TCU going back to the AAC???
Where will they go other than the AAC?
(01-05-2014 01:12 PM)FloridaJag Wrote: [ -> ]I factored in the GOR of the ACC so that eliminated Clemson, FSU and UNC.
The Big 12 also has a GOR agreement in place. To break it, SEC would have to act in concert with at least one other conference to dissolve the Big 12.
(01-05-2014 01:33 PM)Steve1981 Wrote: [ -> ] (01-05-2014 01:04 PM)FloridaJag Wrote: [ -> ]The SEC could make a move that would solidify its dominance and force other moves by the PAC 12 and Big TEN.
The SEC could invite Oklahoma and Oklahoma State:
SEC East
Alabama
Auburn
Florida
Georgia
Kentucky
South Carolina
Tennessee
Vanderbilt
SEC West
Arkansas
Louisiana State
Mississippi
Mississippi State
Missouri
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Texas A&M
The Big Ten then could invite Kansas and Kansas State
Big Ten East
Illinois
Indiana
Maryland
Michigan
Michigan State
Ohio State
Penn State
Rutgers
Big Ten West
Iowa
Kansas
Kansas State
Minnesota
Nebraska
Northwestern
Purdue
Wisconsin
Texas humbles itself and request admission to the PAC 12 bringing Texas Tech with them
PAC 14 West
California
Oregon
Oregon State
Stanford
UCLA
USC
Washington
PAC 14 East
Arizona
Arizona State
Colorado
Texas
Texas Tech
Utah
Washington State
The rest of the Big 12 joins the AAC along with BYU
AAC West
Baylor
Brigham Young
Houston
Iowa State
Memphis
Southern Methodist
Texas Christian
Tulsa
AAC East
Central Florida
Cincinnati
Connecticut
East Carolina
South Florida
Temple
Tulane
West Virginia
With the ACC/Notre Dame making the P5.
First round playoff - Conference Championship
2nd round playoff - Seeded conference Champions
3rd round playoff - National Championship
Why do you have West Virginia and TCU going back to the AAC???
Because he has the B12 imploding...
PAC (Texas, Texas Tech)
SEC (Oklahoma, OSU)
B1G (Kansas, UConn)
ACC (WVU, Cincinnati)
AAC (TCU, Baylor, Iowa St, K-State)
AAC West: TCU, SMU, Baylor, Houston, ISU, KSU, Tulsa
AAC East: Memphis, Tulane, USF, UCF, ECU, Temple, Navy
MWC (UTEP, UTSA, Rice, UNT)
CUSA (NIU, Toledo, Ohio, Georgia St)
???? (12 best from MAC/SBC)
Then you have an 8 conference FBS system with the AAC worth 10 million per school, MWC/CUSA worth 5 million and the 12 best MAC/SBC schools left on the table worth 2.5 million per school. This makes a lot more sense than having CUSA, MAC and SBC keep digging into the FCS pool for candidates. Why not just have some consolidation and drop the weak sisters in process?
(01-05-2014 02:26 PM)NJ2MDTerp Wrote: [ -> ] (01-05-2014 01:12 PM)FloridaJag Wrote: [ -> ]I factored in the GOR of the ACC so that eliminated Clemson, FSU and UNC.
The Big 12 also has a GOR agreement in place. To break it, SEC would have to act in concert with at least one other conference to dissolve the Big 12.
Excellent point.
That may be why the B12 goes out in a mass extinction event. I think its very possible for 2018 in advance of the next bowl cycle.
Its more likely the 10 conference FBS system consolidates into an 8 conference system to further TV revenue than an 8 team playoff which would dilute revenue.
B1G (40 mil)
SEC (40 mil)
PAC (40 mil)
ACC (30 mil)
AAC (10 mil)
MWC (5 mil)
CUSA (5 mill)
MAC/SBC (2.5 mil)
The P4 due to its membership size would probably be back to playing the G4 more often in lower tier bowl games. Maybe a couple slots in the system for Independents, a group that would now be 6-8 members of SBC/MAC leftovers.
They already invited OU in 2010. They said they weren't interested.
OSU is a good athletic program to be sure but the hard truth about realignment is that expansion slots are the single most powerful resource a conference has and OSU is not worth one, especially if you were to take the number one team in an already small market.
And that's why OU doesn't work either. They are politically chained to OSU and neither the B1G or SEC will use the single most valuable resource in CFB on them.
Only the PAC or perhaps the ACC would be willing to take the teams OU and UT are required to take with them.
With only six schools from the Big 12 going to the rest of the P4, there wouldn't be enough votes to dissolve the Big 12.
Realistically, all 10 members would need a soft landing - this doesn't bode well for Cincinnati and UConn (or whatever schools you think are the next two in line).
Exactly, and there are plenty of teams there that the current P5 won't spend their slots on.
Realistically, B12 is locked up till 2023
(01-05-2014 03:09 PM)10thMountain Wrote: [ -> ]OSU is a good athletic program to be sure but the hard truth about realignment is that expansion slots are the single most powerful resource a conference has and OSU is not worth one, especially if you were to take the number one team in an already small market.
And that's why OU doesn't work either. They are politically chained to OSU and neither the B1G or SEC will use the single most valuable resource in CFB on them.
Only the PAC or perhaps the ACC would be willing to take the teams OU and UT are required to take with them.
Oklahoma U and Oklahoma State U are close knit and coordinate their moves. This is both an alien and foreign concept on this board. Let me give an example or two. When the PAC invite came, OSU delegated its rights/negotiation VOLUNTEERLY to OU. The two schools then spoke with one voice. Another example. The president of Oklahoma State U is an undergraduate of OSU and a Law graduate of Oklahoma U.
So you are correct to say that OU and OSU are joined at the hip; but it isn't because of any state law passed. It is a volunteer effort and I realize that is unbelievable on this board.
FWIW, Oklahoma ranks #9 nationally in athletic revenue earned while Oklahoma State U ranks #22. Data are for 2011 as published by USA Today.
USA Today
ACC's South Carolina just put a whipping on BiG's Ohio State. Monday, Florida State U plays for the national championship. If ACC is to make a move or two, say, for example, the illustration I gave previously of perhaps inviting Penn State and Rutgers, this is the time to do it. Nothing would be lost to ACC; but it would gain national publicity for ACC, letting the nation know that the ACC, at worst, is on par with BiG, and with its Notre Dame affiliation and superb basketball, moving ahead of BiG. Any move has to of course wait after Maryland ruling.
PAC had an invitation on the table to Colorado for years; Colorado eventually took it. Same difference.
doubt the B1G would want K-State. Kansas, Texas, Oklahoma are probably on their radar though amongst B12 schools.
(01-05-2014 03:09 PM)10thMountain Wrote: [ -> ]OSU is a good athletic program to be sure but the hard truth about realignment is that expansion slots are the single most powerful resource a conference has and OSU is not worth one, especially if you were to take the number one team in an already small market.
And that's why OU doesn't work either. They are politically chained to OSU and neither the B1G or SEC will use the single most valuable resource in CFB on them.
Only the PAC or perhaps the ACC would be willing to take the teams OU and UT are required to take with them.
You are right to an extent. I think if OSU had a good landing spot OU could move on its own. For instance if OU went to the SEC and OSU and Tech went to the Pac-12, I think something like that could fly.
The SEC's next two selections (whenever that occurs) will not be based solely on market. It will be based on who adds the most value. If necessary a 52 million dollar buyout plus ameliorated GOR value could be easily covered. Let's say that the incoming team added 2 million a year to the value of the other member schools in the SEC. It would only be necessary for the existing teams to agree to take half of that value for 10 years and to let the rest ride on the buyouts. That's $140 million over ten years to cover the cost of admission for an ACC or Big 12 school. So forget the the cost and the GOR angle. If the next move is one that has to last for a great while to come, and I believe it will be, then the cost will not be as important as the long term value of the addition.
The Big 10 and SEC will both be taking that into consideration when the moves are made, whether before next August 15th or 10 years from now.
So the great fallacy of the current realignment speculation is that anyone is off the table due to the GOR's. In the above manner of compensation that I described the amount of available money to an ACC team could be as high as 90 million by either the Big 10 or SEC if they followed the formula of only giving existing members half of the value added by the move over a protracted period of time (like a decade). Considering the current value of both the Big 12 and ACC teams are around the 20 milliion mark give or take a couple of million, then 90 million would account for 4 and a half years of the GOR at full value. If teams decide to move by August of next year, and give two years notice, then a move by 2017 would require a two decade payback instead of 1. But remember, everyone, including the moving teams, would be making more than they are presently, and that is if the GOR isn't arbitrated down to some extent which is also a viable possibility.
In the SEC for instance if a team by 2017 is projected to earn 35 million per year in payout then, obviously since all members receive equal shares from the get go, it would be profitable for either a Big 12 or ACC school to move, have the existing membership forgo half of their added value, pay their former conferences in full, and for the entering teams to make full value immediately for their decision. If the entering teams agree to forgo half of their entering increase, along with the defrayed amount by existing members, the duration of the payback would be cut in half or by more.
Given that contingency and the likelihood that the ACC survives just fine, then the SEC could afford to go after Texas or Oklahoma, Texas and Florida State, or Oklahoma and Florida State, or anyone else that adds great content value, national following, or new markets. I throw out those pairings to illustrate that anything might be possible.
The only encumbrance to realignment remains the target's willingness to move. And, that movement can only be enticed by so much money, whether that money comes through sports, academics, or by some other means.
I doubt very much that Mike Slive or Jim Delany are worried or concerned about who might or might not be available. They will only be concerned with maximizing value and maintaining harmony within their existing membership.
So please when you are speculating keep this in mind. Most of the realignment speculators operate with many "internet made up rules" which in reality can either be gotten around, or simply don't apply.
And by the way I'm not saying that Florida State or Texas want to come to the SEC, or that the SEC is out to get them, or anything of the kind. I'm simply using two Kings of the sport as an example of why anything could happen and the amount of buyout is not as major of a consequence as everyone makes it out to be. JR
(01-05-2014 04:48 PM)JRsec Wrote: [ -> ]The SEC's next two selections (whenever that occurs) will not be based solely on market. It will be based on who adds the most value. If necessary a 52 million dollar buyout plus ameliorated GOR value could be easily covered. Let's say that the incoming team added 2 million a year to the value of the other member schools in the SEC. It would only be necessary for the existing teams to agree to take half of that value for 10 years and to let the rest ride on the buyouts. That's $140 million over ten years to cover the cost of admission for an ACC or Big 12 school. So forget the the cost and the GOR angle. If the next move is one that has to last for a great while to come, and I believe it will be, then the cost will not be as important as the long term value of the addition.
The Big 10 and SEC will both be taking that into consideration when the moves are made, whether before next August 15th or 10 years from now.
So the great fallacy of the current realignment speculation is that anyone is off the table due to the GOR's. In the above manner of compensation that I described the amount of available money to an ACC team could be as high as 90 million by either the Big 10 or SEC if they followed the formula of only giving existing members half of the value added by the move over a protracted period of time (like a decade). Considering the current value of both the Big 12 and ACC teams are around the 20 milliion mark give or take a couple of million, then 90 million would account for 4 and a half years of the GOR at full value. If teams decide to move by August of next year, and give two years notice, then a move by 2017 would require a two decade payback instead of 1. But remember, everyone, including the moving teams, would be making more than they are presently, and that is if the GOR isn't arbitrated down to some extent which is also a viable possibility.
In the SEC for instance if a team by 2017 is projected to earn 35 million per year in payout then, obviously since all members receive equal shares from the get go, it would be profitable for either a Big 12 or ACC school to move, have the existing membership forgo half of their added value, pay their former conferences in full, and for the entering teams to make full value immediately for their decision. If the entering teams agree to forgo half of their entering increase, along with the defrayed amount by existing members, the duration of the payback would be cut in half or by more.
Given that contingency and the likelihood that the ACC survives just fine, then the SEC could afford to go after Texas or Oklahoma, Texas and Florida State, or Oklahoma and Florida State, or anyone else that adds great content value, national following, or new markets. I throw out those pairings to illustrate that anything might be possible.
The only encumbrance to realignment remains the target's willingness to move. And, that movement can only be enticed by so much money, whether that money comes through sports, academics, or by some other means.
I doubt very much that Mike Slive or Jim Delany are worried or concerned about who might or might not be available. They will only be concerned with maximizing value and maintaining harmony within their existing membership.
So please when you are speculating keep this in mind. Most of the realignment speculators operate with many "internet made up rules" which in reality can either be gotten around, or simply don't apply.
And by the way I'm not saying that Florida State or Texas want to come to the SEC, or that the SEC is out to get them, or anything of the kind. I'm simply using two Kings of the sport as an example of why anything could happen and the amount of buyout is not as major of a consequence as everyone makes it out to be. JR
I think the value of television money is greatly overated in the five major conferences. The prospect of adding an extra $10 million in TV revenue sounds great until you have to weigh that against still being $30-$50 million behind conference leaders. This is the Maryland fallacy, they might pick up $5-$10 million a year after all is said and done over the ACC TV package, but in the ACC the top revenue generating schools ND, FSU, UNC, Louisville, UVa, etc., averaged only about $85 million a year (average) the second tier - NC State, VT, Clemson, Syracuse, etc., are averaging $70 million. Maryland is down in the $60's with a large subsidy.
In the ACC, Maryland is running at 70% of the leaders in the ACC. In the B10, even with a net increase of $10 million to 70 milliion a year and no more subusidy, the leaders are averaging $115 million a year, meaning UM will be running at 60% of the leaders of the SEC.
Now Texas can compete financially in any conference. I'm not sure FSU can generate top 3 income in the SEC, maybe they can. But as it is now, FSU makes the most in the ACC and have no real challengers. In the SEC, FSU will probably run behind Florida, Bama, LSU, TAMU. What they make in some extra TV money and more sell-outs in Doak may be given back when they start averaging at least 2 conferences losses a year and that's to be expected.
I don't see what the SEC actually gains by stacking themselves with two more football powers. The pressure and expectation to win a SEC division is already astronomical for Bama, LSU, Florida, and Georgia. If you then consider that TAMU, Mizzou, SC, UT and Auburn, it seems to me that if you added Texas and FSU, that sets up the league for a lot of pissed-off fans each year.
It seems to me that adding two basketball related schools that don't have the crazy football expectations might be best for the SEC. That would be Kansas and West Va. West Va, gets the SEC close to DC, Kansas adds a legitimate top 5 basketball program for the SEC.
Unless you go to PODs and allow two semi-finals before the Conference championship, I don't think you can keep 10 football crazy fan based happy.
If you look carefully at ACC basketball, this is beginning to happen. 30 years ago 7 schools played for the title, now it's up to 15.