In order of date/time - roughly. Hopefully, NIU can win easily for a relaxing time at the game. Then sit back and enjoy the rest of the games later in the week. I will still watch Thursday games, but nothing of importance for the Huskies.
TUESDAY
#14 NIU over Western Michigan (Most important, obviously) WIN 1-0
FRIDAY
Iowa over Nebraska (This one is probably the third most important game) WIN 2-0
Toledo over Akron LOSS 2-1
Ball State over Miami (OH) WIN 3-1
Buffalo over Bowling Green (Buffalo is ranked slightly better) LOSS 3-2
UMass over Ohio LOSS 3-3
Central Michigan over Eastern Michigan WIN 4-3
Arkansas over #17 LSU LOSS 4-4
San Jose State over #16 Fresno State (Second most important) WIN 5-4
Oregon State over #13 Oregon LOSS 5-5
South Florida over #19 Central Florida LOSS 5-6
SATURDAY
Minnesota over #11 Michigan State LOSS 5-7
Florida over #2 Florida State LOSS 5-8
Michigan over #3 Ohio State LOSS 5-9
#1 Alabama over #4 Auburn LOSS 5-10
Purdue over Indiana LOSS 5-11
Idaho over New Mexico State LOSS 5-12
Penn State over #15 Wisconsin WIN 6-12
TCU over #9 Baylor LOSS 6-13
#25 Notre Dame over #8 Stanford LOSS 6-14
#6 Clemson over #10 South Carolina LOSS 6-15
#21 Texas A&M over #5 Missouri LOSS 6-16
#23 USC over #22 UCLA LOSS 6-17
Arizona over #12 Arizona State LOSS 6-18
I can see 11 wins and 14 losses out of that group. Not sure if I missed any games or certain games may have zero impact. Here is to a GREAT week!
Doing a little analysis between the ups/downs of human polls compared to computers (keeping in mind that all the computers together account for 1/3 of the vote), I came up with the following in order of importance:
1. NIU (-33.5) over WMU
2. Fresno State (-10) lose at San Jose State
3. Arizona State (-10.5) lose to Arizona
4. LSU (-24.5) lose to Arkansas
5. Wisconsin (-23) lose to Penn State
6. UCF (-26) lose to South Florida
7. Texas A&M (+4) lose at Missouri
8. UCLA (+3.5) lose at USC
9. All of our previous/future opponents winning
10. Fresno State's previous/future opponents losing
Biggest previous win against an opponent that Huskies defeated is Iowa over Nebraska.
(11-25-2013 01:33 PM)NIUHuskie Wrote: [ -> ]Doing a little analysis between the ups/downs of human polls compared to computers (keeping in mind that all the computers together account for 1/3 of the vote), I came up with the following in order of importance:
1. NIU (-33.5) over WMU
2. Fresno State (-10) lose at San Jose State
3. Arizona State (-10.5) lose to Arizona
4. LSU (-24.5) lose to Arkansas
5. Wisconsin (-23) lose to Penn State
6. UCF (-26) lose to South Florida
7. Texas A&M (+4) lose at Missouri
8. UCLA (+3.5) lose at USC
9. All of our previous/future opponents winning
10. Fresno State's previous/future opponents losing
Some more Arizona magic would go a long long way.
(11-25-2013 01:33 PM)NIUHuskie Wrote: [ -> ]Doing a little analysis between the ups/downs of human polls compared to computers (keeping in mind that all the computers together account for 1/3 of the vote), I came up with the following in order of importance:
1. NIU (-33.5) over WMU
2. Fresno State (-10) lose at San Jose State
3. Arizona State (-10.5) lose to Arizona
4. LSU (-24.5) lose to Arkansas
5. Wisconsin (-23) lose to Penn State
6. UCF (-26) lose to South Florida
7. Texas A&M (+4) lose at Missouri
8. UCLA (+3.5) lose at USC
9. All of our previous/future opponents winning
10. Fresno State's previous/future opponents losing
This is a very good list actually. Not sure #8 really matters. I still am sold on the idea that we want South Carolina to beat Clemson, but it doesn't seem to be a popular opinion.
AAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!
Quote:This is a very good list actually. Not sure #8 really matters. I still am sold on the idea that we want South Carolina to beat Clemson, but it doesn't seem to be a popular opinion.
I agree with you. It prevents UCF from jumping up... but also brings SC down. With a championship game AFTER that SC game that NIU will play, it will put them above SC -- notably if SC takes a big beating to Clemson.
todd... I am saying I think SC should win. If SC beats Clemson in a somewhat close game and Mizz beats Texas A&M, then:
* A&M is out of the way
* Clemson, SC and Mizz all stay in front of Fresno
* No additional teams are wedged between us
If SC is in front of us, NIU will not jump them simply for winning the MACC, when SC doesn't play.
Now, if SC wins and Mizz loses that could be a double whammy negative for us. SC would be in the SEC champ and may lose. Then, you have potentially Mizz, A&M and SC all wedged. That would be a perfect storm of bad.
(11-24-2013 11:40 PM)Citizens Arrest Wrote: [ -> ]In order of date/time - roughly. Hopefully, NIU can win easily for a relaxing time at the game. Then sit back and enjoy the rest of the games later in the week. I will still watch Thursday games, but nothing of importance for the Huskies.
TUESDAY
#14 NIU over Western Michigan (Most important, obviously)
FRIDAY
Iowa over Nebraska (This one is probably the third most important game)
Toledo over Akron
Ball State over Miami (OH)
Buffalo over Bowling Green (Buffalo is ranked slightly better)
UMass over Ohio
Central Michigan over Eastern Michigan
Arkansas over #17 LSU
San Jose State over #16 Fresno State (Second most important)
Oregon State over #13 Oregon
South Florida over #19 Central Florida
SATURDAY
UConn over Rutgers
Minnesota over #11 Michigan State
Wyoming over Utah State (Fresno will probably beat SJS, so hopefully both Utah St. and Boise St. lose to weaken the championship match up)
#1 Alabama over #4 Auburn (I think, maybe this game doesn't matter)
Purdue over Indiana
Idaho over New Mexico State
Penn State over #15 Wisconsin
TCU over #9 Baylor
#25 Notre Dame over #8 Stanford
#6 Clemson over #10 South Carolina
#5 Missouri over #21 Texas A&M
#23 USC over #22 UCLA (Although I don't think this matters)
Arizona over #12 Arizona State
New Mexico over Boise State
Im fine with Auburn beating Alabama or at least AJ having a bad game so Lynch can possibly get a few more votes and a CHANCE to go to NY
IMO AZ State is the 4th biggest behind NIU and Iowa winning and Fresno losing.
They are directly wedged between NIU and Fresno and could have a big impact even if NIU could get 25% of their points
(11-25-2013 01:43 PM)NIUslumo Wrote: [ -> ] (11-25-2013 01:33 PM)NIUHuskie Wrote: [ -> ]Doing a little analysis between the ups/downs of human polls compared to computers (keeping in mind that all the computers together account for 1/3 of the vote), I came up with the following in order of importance:
1. NIU (-33.5) over WMU
2. Fresno State (-10) lose at San Jose State
3. Arizona State (-10.5) lose to Arizona
4. LSU (-24.5) lose to Arkansas
5. Wisconsin (-23) lose to Penn State
6. UCF (-26) lose to South Florida
7. Texas A&M (+4) lose at Missouri
8. UCLA (+3.5) lose at USC
9. All of our previous/future opponents winning
10. Fresno State's previous/future opponents losing
This is a very good list actually. Not sure #8 really matters. I still am sold on the idea that we want South Carolina to beat Clemson, but it doesn't seem to be a popular opinion.
UCLA/USC probably isn't a big one and honestly, now I can't figure out why I included them. Maybe because there might be a few human voters who still have UCLA ahead of NIU.
Regarding South Carolina and Clemson, it's pretty close. I'd probably go with South Carolina winning because I think their win would have a slightly less of a negative impact on our computer ranking. But, a South Carolina win will help UCF's case.
(11-25-2013 02:31 PM)NIUslumo Wrote: [ -> ]todd... I am saying I think SC should win. If SC beats Clemson in a somewhat close game and Mizz beats Texas A&M, then:
* A&M is out of the way
* Clemson, SC and Mizz all stay in front of Fresno
* No additional teams are wedged between us
If SC is in front of us, NIU will not jump them simply for winning the MACC, when SC doesn't play.
Now, if SC wins and Mizz loses that could be a double whammy negative for us. SC would be in the SEC champ and may lose. Then, you have potentially Mizz, A&M and SC all wedged. That would be a perfect storm of bad.
It will be best if SC wins. You are right slumo.
(11-25-2013 01:33 PM)NIUHuskie Wrote: [ -> ]Doing a little analysis between the ups/downs of human polls compared to computers (keeping in mind that all the computers together account for 1/3 of the vote), I came up with the following in order of importance:
1. NIU (-33.5) over WMU
2. Fresno State (-10) lose at San Jose State
3. Arizona State (-10.5) lose to Arizona
4. LSU (-24.5) lose to Arkansas
5. Wisconsin (-23) lose to Penn State
6. UCF (-26) lose to South Florida
7. Texas A&M (+4) lose at Missouri
8. UCLA (+3.5) lose at USC
9. All of our previous/future opponents winning
10. Fresno State's previous/future opponents losing
Totally Agree
(11-25-2013 04:05 PM)HuskiemobileMan Wrote: [ -> ] (11-25-2013 01:33 PM)NIUHuskie Wrote: [ -> ]Doing a little analysis between the ups/downs of human polls compared to computers (keeping in mind that all the computers together account for 1/3 of the vote), I came up with the following in order of importance:
1. NIU (-33.5) over WMU
2. Fresno State (-10) lose at San Jose State
3. Arizona State (-10.5) lose to Arizona
4. LSU (-24.5) lose to Arkansas
5. Wisconsin (-23) lose to Penn State
6. UCF (-26) lose to South Florida
7. Texas A&M (+4) lose at Missouri
8. UCLA (+3.5) lose at USC
9. All of our previous/future opponents winning
10. Fresno State's previous/future opponents losing
Totally Agree
Wisconsin losing to Penn State will not be helpful at all. Any gains in coaches/Harris poll votes will be offset by Wisconsin dropping below Fresno in all but one of the computers. It would be better if Wisconsin won. UCLA losing wouldn't help us either, as we are well above them in the human polls, and they would drop below Fresno in the computers.
(11-25-2013 04:28 PM)niusfactuary Wrote: [ -> ] (11-25-2013 04:05 PM)HuskiemobileMan Wrote: [ -> ] (11-25-2013 01:33 PM)NIUHuskie Wrote: [ -> ]Doing a little analysis between the ups/downs of human polls compared to computers (keeping in mind that all the computers together account for 1/3 of the vote), I came up with the following in order of importance:
1. NIU (-33.5) over WMU
2. Fresno State (-10) lose at San Jose State
3. Arizona State (-10.5) lose to Arizona
4. LSU (-24.5) lose to Arkansas
5. Wisconsin (-23) lose to Penn State
6. UCF (-26) lose to South Florida
7. Texas A&M (+4) lose at Missouri
8. UCLA (+3.5) lose at USC
9. All of our previous/future opponents winning
10. Fresno State's previous/future opponents losing
Totally Agree
Wisconsin losing to Penn State will not be helpful at all. Any gains in coaches/Harris poll votes will be offset by Wisconsin dropping below Fresno in all but one of the computers. It would be better if Wisconsin won. UCLA losing wouldn't help us either, as we are well above them in the human polls, and they would drop below Fresno in the computers.
Human poll gains (2/3) are more important than computer ranking losses (1/3).
(11-25-2013 04:37 PM)NIUHuskie Wrote: [ -> ] (11-25-2013 04:28 PM)niusfactuary Wrote: [ -> ] (11-25-2013 04:05 PM)HuskiemobileMan Wrote: [ -> ] (11-25-2013 01:33 PM)NIUHuskie Wrote: [ -> ]Doing a little analysis between the ups/downs of human polls compared to computers (keeping in mind that all the computers together account for 1/3 of the vote), I came up with the following in order of importance:
1. NIU (-33.5) over WMU
2. Fresno State (-10) lose at San Jose State
3. Arizona State (-10.5) lose to Arizona
4. LSU (-24.5) lose to Arkansas
5. Wisconsin (-23) lose to Penn State
6. UCF (-26) lose to South Florida
7. Texas A&M (+4) lose at Missouri
8. UCLA (+3.5) lose at USC
9. All of our previous/future opponents winning
10. Fresno State's previous/future opponents losing
Totally Agree
Wisconsin losing to Penn State will not be helpful at all. Any gains in coaches/Harris poll votes will be offset by Wisconsin dropping below Fresno in all but one of the computers. It would be better if Wisconsin won. UCLA losing wouldn't help us either, as we are well above them in the human polls, and they would drop below Fresno in the computers.
Human poll gains (2/3) are more important than computer ranking losses (1/3).
While that is true, wouldn't you say that a great majority of the movement of NIU/Fresno's score will be due to that 1/3 computer contribution. Human polls don't change as much as the computers. Having said that though, I think both teams are about even or a lead for Fresno once computers spring back this week, so even that little human change will be vital. NIU still leads to make up human votes to win.
(11-25-2013 05:01 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote: [ -> ] (11-25-2013 04:37 PM)NIUHuskie Wrote: [ -> ] (11-25-2013 04:28 PM)niusfactuary Wrote: [ -> ] (11-25-2013 04:05 PM)HuskiemobileMan Wrote: [ -> ] (11-25-2013 01:33 PM)NIUHuskie Wrote: [ -> ]Doing a little analysis between the ups/downs of human polls compared to computers (keeping in mind that all the computers together account for 1/3 of the vote), I came up with the following in order of importance:
1. NIU (-33.5) over WMU
2. Fresno State (-10) lose at San Jose State
3. Arizona State (-10.5) lose to Arizona
4. LSU (-24.5) lose to Arkansas
5. Wisconsin (-23) lose to Penn State
6. UCF (-26) lose to South Florida
7. Texas A&M (+4) lose at Missouri
8. UCLA (+3.5) lose at USC
9. All of our previous/future opponents winning
10. Fresno State's previous/future opponents losing
Totally Agree
Wisconsin losing to Penn State will not be helpful at all. Any gains in coaches/Harris poll votes will be offset by Wisconsin dropping below Fresno in all but one of the computers. It would be better if Wisconsin won. UCLA losing wouldn't help us either, as we are well above them in the human polls, and they would drop below Fresno in the computers.
Human poll gains (2/3) are more important than computer ranking losses (1/3).
While that is true, wouldn't you say that a great majority of the movement of NIU/Fresno's score will be due to that 1/3 computer contribution. Human polls don't change as much as the computers. Having said that though, I think both teams are about even or a lead for Fresno once computers spring back this week, so even that little human change will be vital. NIU still leads to make up human votes to win.
How do you guys keep up with this shi*? It is so tiring to me.
(11-25-2013 04:37 PM)NIUHuskie Wrote: [ -> ] (11-25-2013 04:28 PM)niusfactuary Wrote: [ -> ] (11-25-2013 04:05 PM)HuskiemobileMan Wrote: [ -> ] (11-25-2013 01:33 PM)NIUHuskie Wrote: [ -> ]Doing a little analysis between the ups/downs of human polls compared to computers (keeping in mind that all the computers together account for 1/3 of the vote), I came up with the following in order of importance:
1. NIU (-33.5) over WMU
2. Fresno State (-10) lose at San Jose State
3. Arizona State (-10.5) lose to Arizona
4. LSU (-24.5) lose to Arkansas
5. Wisconsin (-23) lose to Penn State
6. UCF (-26) lose to South Florida
7. Texas A&M (+4) lose at Missouri
8. UCLA (+3.5) lose at USC
9. All of our previous/future opponents winning
10. Fresno State's previous/future opponents losing
Totally Agree
Wisconsin losing to Penn State will not be helpful at all. Any gains in coaches/Harris poll votes will be offset by Wisconsin dropping below Fresno in all but one of the computers. It would be better if Wisconsin won. UCLA losing wouldn't help us either, as we are well above them in the human polls, and they would drop below Fresno in the computers.
Human poll gains (2/3) are more important than computer ranking losses (1/3).
That's nice and all, but moving up 1 "spot" in the coaches and 1 "spot in the harris is worth a total of about .0075, whereas Fresno moving up one spot in 4 computers is worth about .01
There is also a human poll gain if Wisconsin wins, especially convincingly ... Wisky is a wedge team right behind Fresno and certainly will take a few votes from Fresno as some voters move Wisky ahead of Fresno, thus lowering Fresno relative to NIU.
CMU is fighting for bowl eligibility. Would be another nice win for NIU to have 4 wins over bowl eligible teams. We have no reason to lose this game. EMU is trash.