Great analysis of remaining SOS for all FBS teams here:
http://www.footballstudyhall.com/2013/10...real-world
Five toughest remaining schedules from here to the end of the regular season: Mississippi State, Oregon State, Oregon, LSU, Miami.
Rank of remaining games SOS among this week's BCS top 10:
Alabama 28th toughest remaining schedule
Oregon 3rd
Florida State 51st
Ohio State 70th
Stanford 18th
Baylor 29th
Miami 5th
Clemson 37th
Missouri 39th
Oklahoma 16th
That article was a crock, dude. He'd have been better served using Sagarin's ratings, because the BS he used was ludicrous...
(10-29-2013 01:56 PM)bitcruncher Wrote: [ -> ]That article was a crock, dude. He'd have been better served using Sagarin's ratings, because the BS he used was ludicrous...
Nothing is more BS than Sagarin.
Anyway, the results would be similar even if you used the same composite of computer rankings used by the BCS.
Time and again Sagarin's ratings have been proven out to be the most accurate. Why do you think they're BS?
Could it be that it's because they don't prove your point?
Oregon 28.69 + ccg
Baylor 31.30
Miami 39.60 + ccg
Stanford 40.50 + ccg
Missouri 47.19 + ccg
Alabama 50.75 + ccg
Oklahoma 52.13
Florida St 56.20 + ccg
Clemson 66.06 + ccg
Ohio St 69.56 + ccg
used the avg bcs cpu ratings of the remaining opponents. For FCS teams, used 126.
I'm not trying to make a point here, Bit. I don't even see what point is in this guy's table that's provoking your hostile reaction to him. It's just a crunching of numbers that wouldn't be much different if you used the BCS computers, as I said above.
Further, if you're looking for a ranking that would boost Big 12 teams, you don't want Sagarin. It won't help your Big 12 favorites, but oddly enough, using this week's Sagarin would make Oregon and Stanford's SOS look even better than the list above, because Sag has ASU and USC ranked absurdly high. Anyone who thinks ASU is the 10th best team in CFB and USC is 31st this year hasn't been watching actual games.
(10-29-2013 02:41 PM)Wedge Wrote: [ -> ]I'm not trying to make a point here, Bit. I don't even see what point is in this guy's table that's provoking your hostile reaction to him. It's just a crunching of numbers that wouldn't be much different if you used the BCS computers, as I said above.
Further, if you're looking for a ranking that would boost Big 12 teams, you don't want Sagarin. It won't help your Big 12 favorites, but oddly enough, using this week's Sagarin would make Oregon and Stanford's SOS look even better than the list above, because Sag has ASU and USC ranked absurdly high. Anyone who thinks ASU is the 10th best team in CFB and USC is 31st this year hasn't been watching actual games.
I'm not looking for anything to boost the B12 rating. I don't need to. IMO the season will work everything out for us...
I much prefer stever's work on this, since he's using the BCS ratings. They're the ones that count...
think my chart shows the situation that FSU and Ohio St are in. They have to hope Alabama and/or Oregon lose.
also shows what Baylor can do. I think we may see a scenario where if they had a CCG they could have passed Ohio St. I think if that happens, we may see expansion from the Big 12 in fairly short order.
If Baylor goes unbeaten, they'll pass the Buckeyes easily. Bet on it, stever...
I'm very open to that bit. I think it's close either way. I think that closeness may get the Big 12 seriously thinking expansion quite frankly.
If Oliver Luck goes to Texas, expansion will be much more likely than otherwise. But I'd prefer Luck stays in Morgantown...
FSU and OSU have a big advantage, IMO: They are least likely to lose any of their remaining games, and either would be in the title game if they are the only unbeaten P5 team or one of only two.
FSU is a 21-point favorite over the toughest opponent (Miami) on their remaining schedule.
FSU yes I agree..
Ohio St- if it can be anyone but Stanford beating Oregon, while Alabama loses to LSU but wins the SEC- it's going to be extremely close with Ohio St and Alabama.
(10-29-2013 03:24 PM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ]FSU yes I agree..
Ohio St- if it can be anyone but Stanford beating Oregon, while Alabama loses to LSU but wins the SEC- it's going to be extremely close with Ohio St and Alabama.
The computers ding a team for each loss, as well. So if your hypothetical has a one-loss Bama, the loss itself gives them a lower computer rating than they'd have if undefeated.
Stanford and Bama would both be interesting possibilities (for finishing ahead of OSU) if they have one loss, but IMO the poll voters would put any undefeated P5 teams far enough ahead of either of them in the polls to offset the possible computer advantage Stanford or Bama would have.
(10-29-2013 03:30 PM)Wedge Wrote: [ -> ] (10-29-2013 03:24 PM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ]FSU yes I agree..
Ohio St- if it can be anyone but Stanford beating Oregon, while Alabama loses to LSU but wins the SEC- it's going to be extremely close with Ohio St and Alabama.
The computers ding a team for each loss, as well. So if your hypothetical has a one-loss Bama, the loss itself gives them a lower computer rating than they'd have if undefeated.
Stanford and Bama would both be interesting possibilities (for finishing ahead of OSU) if they have one loss, but IMO the poll voters would put any undefeated P5 teams far enough ahead of either of them in the polls to offset the possible computer advantage Stanford or Bama would have.
You are kidding yourself if you don't think some poll voters would have in this scenario Ohio St as #5. They would be far from a unanimous #2. Could easily see a lot of voters doing it 1 FSU 2 Alabama 3 Stanford 4 Oregon and 5 Ohio St.
(10-29-2013 03:21 PM)Wedge Wrote: [ -> ]FSU and OSU have a big advantage, IMO: They are least likely to lose any of their remaining games, and either would be in the title game if they are the only unbeaten P5 team or one of only two.
FSU is a 21-point favorite over the toughest opponent (Miami) on their remaining schedule.
I think you are probably right. Ohio States schedule is so bad they don't deserve it though.
(10-29-2013 03:36 PM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ] (10-29-2013 03:30 PM)Wedge Wrote: [ -> ] (10-29-2013 03:24 PM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ]FSU yes I agree..
Ohio St- if it can be anyone but Stanford beating Oregon, while Alabama loses to LSU but wins the SEC- it's going to be extremely close with Ohio St and Alabama.
The computers ding a team for each loss, as well. So if your hypothetical has a one-loss Bama, the loss itself gives them a lower computer rating than they'd have if undefeated.
Stanford and Bama would both be interesting possibilities (for finishing ahead of OSU) if they have one loss, but IMO the poll voters would put any undefeated P5 teams far enough ahead of either of them in the polls to offset the possible computer advantage Stanford or Bama would have.
You are kidding yourself if you don't think some poll voters would have in this scenario Ohio St as #5. They would be far from a unanimous #2. Could easily see a lot of voters doing it 1 FSU 2 Alabama 3 Stanford 4 Oregon and 5 Ohio St.
Anything is possible, but if that was the final coaches or Harris poll result before the bowls, I would be very surprised.
(10-29-2013 04:47 PM)Wedge Wrote: [ -> ] (10-29-2013 03:36 PM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ] (10-29-2013 03:30 PM)Wedge Wrote: [ -> ] (10-29-2013 03:24 PM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ]FSU yes I agree..
Ohio St- if it can be anyone but Stanford beating Oregon, while Alabama loses to LSU but wins the SEC- it's going to be extremely close with Ohio St and Alabama.
The computers ding a team for each loss, as well. So if your hypothetical has a one-loss Bama, the loss itself gives them a lower computer rating than they'd have if undefeated.
Stanford and Bama would both be interesting possibilities (for finishing ahead of OSU) if they have one loss, but IMO the poll voters would put any undefeated P5 teams far enough ahead of either of them in the polls to offset the possible computer advantage Stanford or Bama would have.
You are kidding yourself if you don't think some poll voters would have in this scenario Ohio St as #5. They would be far from a unanimous #2. Could easily see a lot of voters doing it 1 FSU 2 Alabama 3 Stanford 4 Oregon and 5 Ohio St.
Anything is possible, but if that was the final coaches or Harris poll result before the bowls, I would be very surprised.
I think Ohio St would be #2, but far from a unanimous #2 in the polls. The question is would they have enough of a lead to balance the computers, where they would quite possibly be 5th. I think Alabama, Stanford, and Oregon would be all ahead of them in the computers. That's the problem that Ohio St will face.
(10-29-2013 03:06 PM)bitcruncher Wrote: [ -> ]If Baylor goes unbeaten, they'll pass the Buckeyes easily. Bet on it, stever...
That would matter greatly next year, when the goal would be to make it in to the top 4 for the playoffs. But this year, you have to get in to the top 2, and passing Ohio State won't be enough.
(10-29-2013 06:57 PM)quo vadis Wrote: [ -> ] (10-29-2013 03:06 PM)bitcruncher Wrote: [ -> ]If Baylor goes unbeaten, they'll pass the Buckeyes easily. Bet on it, stever...
That would matter greatly next year, when the goal would be to make it in to the top 4 for the playoffs. But this year, you have to get in to the top 2, and passing Ohio State won't be enough.
Unless the B1G shows a lot of improvement next year, they'll be on the outside looking in when playoff time rolls around...